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International court warns Venezuela over Guyana vote

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 01/12/23

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) today warned Venezuela it should take no action to seize neighboring Guyana's resource-rich Essequibo province, regardless of the outcome of a 3 December referendum on the status of the disputed territory.

Guyana and Venezuela "shall refrain from any action which might aggravate or extend the dispute before the court or make it more difficult to resolve," the ICJ said.

The South American countries are locked in a simmering century-long territorial dispute over the province that Caracas calls Guayana Esequiba. The dispute has intensified since 2016 when ExxonMobil made several oil finds in the deepwater Stabroek block that has prevented the countries from agreeing on their maritime boundary. Stabroek partially overlaps the disputed waters.

"The definitive settlement of the boundary dispute between Guyana and Venezuela are matters for the court to decide at the merits stage," the Hague-based ICJ said.

Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro said today the country will move ahead with plans for the vote on Sunday, in which citizens would say whether or not they believe the region belongs to Venezuela. The country's supreme court said it was in an emergency "permanent session" following the ICJ warning "... for the protection and defense of the rights of the Venezuelan people."

The head of Venezuela's Maduro-aligned national assembly said the ICJ warning does not prevent Sunday's vote, but rather blocks Guyana from granting new oil exploration licenses.

The ICJ cleared the way in April for settling the dispute, but Venezuela rejected that ruling. Maduro stoked the dispute last month by setting the date for Sunday's vote on "its rights" to the province.

Guyana officials lauded the ICJ ruling today.

"Today's ruling is legally binding on Venezuela," Guyana's president Irfaan Ali said. "Both the UN charter and the statute of the court, to which Venezuela is a party, require its strict compliance."

There was "increased Venezuelan military activity" along the border this week, Guyanese officials said. US and Guyanese military officials met this week "to discuss their readiness to address security threats," the US embassy in Georgetown said.

The dispute dates back to colonial times, when the UK acquired British Guiana, which included the disputed territory, without establishing a clear border with Venezuela.


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01/04/25

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

Calgary, 1 April (Argus) — A depreciating Canadian dollar is giving oil sands producers an extra lift and complementing relatively strong domestic crude prices to help weather tariff concerns. The Canadian dollar, on average, was worth C$1.44 to one US dollar in January-March 2025, weakening from C$1.35 to the greenback in the same quarter 2024, according to the Bank of Canada. That represents a more than 6pc advantage to Canadian producers selling crude in US dollars who then turn those earnings around to pay workers and suppliers in local currency. The outright price for heavy sour Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $58.67/bl in the first quarter this year, according to Argus data. This is only $1/bl higher than the same period last year, but with the now weaker Canadian dollar, that converts to over C$84/bl for producers who would have seen that under C$78/bl in the first quarter 2024. The Canadian dollar, on average, was worth C$1.37 to the US dollar in 2024, weakening from C$1.35 to the greenback in 2023 and the weakest annual average since 2003. The Bank of Canada largely attributes the sliding Canadian dollar to a rising foreign exchange rate risk premium, which relates to holding currencies other than the US dollar. This premium rises with uncertainty that has been amplified by US president Donald Trump's tariff actions in recent months, and that has also weighed on currencies from other economies, hitting developing countries' currencies harder than those of advanced economies. Also keeping the US dollar elevated is the US Federal Reserve's recent caution about resuming its cycle of cutting interest rates, thus attracting relatively more investors to US Treasury bills and boosting demand for US dollars. Canada meanwhile has brought its target rate lower to try to get ahead of an anticipated economic slowdown. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on [19 March](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2669490) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc for a second consecutive meeting after cutting at the last three meetings of 2024. The Bank of Canada a week earlier lowered its overnight rate for the seventh consecutive time to 2.75pc. Giving a more obvious boost to Canadian producers in the first quarter this year compared with a year earlier have been the appreciating domestic crude prices relative to the US light sweet benchmark, which has weakened across the same period. WCS trades at a discount to the Nymex WTI calendar month average (CMA) and that gap has narrowed on the back of new export pipeline capacity out of Canada, added in May 2024. WCS traded at about $12.75/bl under the WTI CMA across the first quarter this year, compared with a $19.25/bl discount a year earlier. More recent trade activity shows WCS for April-delivery narrowing further yet to within $10/bl under the basis — the tightest since April 2021 — with oil sands producers temporarily shutting in some production to embark on major maintenance . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'


01/04/25
01/04/25

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

Washington, 1 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump plans to announce a sweeping batch of tariffs on Wednesday afternoon that will take effect "immediately", the White House said today. Trump will unveil his much anticipated tariff decision Wednesday at 4pm ET during a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden. While the administration has announced the effective date, there is little clarity on what goods will face tariffs at what rates and against which countries, leaving the government agencies that will be tasked with enforcing new tariffs largely in the dark. "The president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower," the White House said today, brushing off criticism from economists, industry groups and investors. Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in March as businesses braced for Trump's tariff threats. Trump has previewed or announced multiple tariff actions since taking office. The barriers in place now include a 20pc tariff on all imports from China, in effect since 4 March, and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum, in effect since 12 March. A 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, is scheduled to go into effect on 3 April, the White House confirmed today. Trump and his advisers have previewed two possible courses of action for 2 April. Trump has suggested that all major US trading partners are likely to see a broad increase in tariffs in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit and to raise more revenue for the US federal budget. But Trump separately has talked about the need for "reciprocal tariffs", contending that most foreign countries typically charge higher rates of tariffs on US exports than the US applies to imports from those countries. In that scenario, high tariffs become a negotiating tool to bring down alleged foreign barriers to US exports. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday night that the second course is the one Trump is more likely to take. Trump will announce "reciprocal tariffs" and "everyone will have the opportunity to lower their tariffs, lower their non-tariff barriers, stop the currency manipulation" and "make the global trading system fair for American workers again", Bessent said. But the White House insisted today that the new tariffs will not be a negotiating tool. Trump is "always up for a good negotiation, but he is very much focused on fixing the wrongs of the past and showing that American workers have a fair shake", the White House said. Trump's words and actions already have drawn retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, and the EU is preparing to implement its first batch of counter-tariffs in April. Trump, for now, has deferred his tariff plans for imported Canadian and Mexican oil and other energy commodities. But the US oil and gas sector, which depends on pipelines and foreign-flagged vessels to transport its crude, natural gas, refined products and LNG, will feel the effects of tariffs on imported steel and proposed fees on Chinese-made and owned vessels calling at US ports. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey


01/04/25
01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs


01/04/25
01/04/25

Mexican peso weakness may partially offset US tariffs

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Volatility in the peso/dollar exchange rate may help to partially offset any tariffs that US President Donald Trump decides to impose on imports from Mexico as the ensuing peso depreciation would make its exports more competitive, said analysts from US bank Barclays. President Trump will announce Wednesday his next decision related to the threat to impose a 25pc tariff against imports from its commercial partners Mexico and Canada. Trump has delayed the decision twice, and it is likely that he will do so again, given the serious repercussions the tariffs could cause to the US economy, said Latam chief economist at Barclays, Gabriel Casillas, during a webinar held Monday. The base scenario for Barclays is that Trump's administration will finally step back from imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada and rather go for an early renegotiation of the (US Mexico Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) this year, said Casillas. In this scenario, the Mexican peso would strengthen to between Ps19.5 to Ps19.00 to the greenback, he added. However, if Trump's administration decides to impose the 25pc tariffs on all Mexican imports as he has threatened to do, then the peso would weaken to Ps24/$1, said Erik Martinez, foreign exchange research Analyst at Barclays during the same webinar. "If tariffs were imposed, 25 percent on all imports, we think a good portion of this would be absorbed by the exchange rate," said Casillas. A weaker peso makes Mexican exports more competitive abroad. The Mexican peso on Tuesday was trading at around Ps20.30 to the dollar, and has weakened by 18.5pc in the past year from about Ps16.6 to the dollar a year ago. If President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration avoids the tariffs, the peso may strengthen to around Ps 19.00/$1 in upcoming days, said Martinez. If the tariffs are applied during a brief period or only for the automobile sector, the exchange rate could range between Ps21.00-22.00 per dollar, said Martinez. However, even without any tariff being applied, Mexico's economy is expected to grow only by around 0.7pc this year, less than the estimates made late in 2024 of around 1.4pc, due to the deceleration of the US economy, Mexico's main trading partner, said Casillas. The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, specially in the industrial sector, which will impact Mexico's growth for the year. Also, this uncertainty is directly affecting any upside expected from so-called nearshoring as companies would now lose interest in moving their manufacturing lines to Mexico if there is no clear benefit in using the USMCA to avoid tariffs, said Casillas. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's OCE sees higher LNG export earnings


01/04/25
01/04/25

Australia's OCE sees higher LNG export earnings

Sydney, 1 April (Argus) — Australia's Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) has revised up its LNG export earnings forecasts for the present fiscal year and the next, given global supply issues and higher than expected prices. Seasonal pressures — including higher winter demand in Europe owing to lower renewable energy output and an end to Russian gas flows via Ukraine — have increased prices, the OCE's Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) March report said. The OCE raised its expectations for the average LNG price for the fiscal year to 30 June by 10pc ( see table ), while increasing its forecast for the following year by 14pc from its previous report. Receipts predicted in 2024-25 have been forecast A$8bn ($5bn) higher to A$72bn, while 2025-26 earnings will likely reach A$66bn, up from A$60bn in December's REQ. Asian demand continues to strengthen, even with Japan and South Korean import levels likely peaking. The OCE noted LNG's growing popularity as a transport fuel in China and record-high Indian imports last year, given increased pressure on power grids. Higher prices have failed to dampen demand in southeast Asia — including Malaysia, Bangladesh, Singapore and Thailand — while Taiwan's backtracking on renewable targets, coupled with artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor sector growth, will increase energy demand there. Qatari and US investment in new supply will add 5pc to global export volumes in 2025, while demand witll grow by just 2.5pc, but the REQ expects this year's imports and exports will gradually balance. Greenfield projects The biggest challenge for Australian projects appears to be a lack of greenfield projects, following the expected completion of the 8mn t/yr Scarborough and 3.7mn t/yr Barossa projects in July-December 2026 and July-September 2025 respectively. The impact of these backfill operations in offsetting gradual declines at the 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf LNG facility will have ceased by 2029-30, with exports falling by 2mn t/yr to 78mn t/yr. But oil and gas exploration spending is increasing after years of declines, the OCE said, with onshore search expenditure rising from A$190mn in July-September last year to A$285mn in October-December 2024. Offshore spending rose from A$125mn to A$178mn in the same period, indicating that higher prices are driving greater confidence. The ANEA price — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — for first and second-half May were assessed at $12.96/mn Btu and $12.995/mn Btu respectively on 28 March. The ASEA price — Argus' assessment for spot LNG deliveries to southeast Asia — for the same period was $12.72/mn Btu and $12.75/mn Btu. By Tom Major Australia LNG export forecasts 2023-24 2024-25 (f) 2025-26 (f) 2026-27 (z) 2027-28 (z) 2028-29 (z) 2029-30 (z) Exports (mn t) 81 80 80 82 80 80 78 Export receipts (A$bn) 70 72 68 64 63 57 51 Mar '25 LNG export price (A$/GJ) 16.1 17.1 16.3 14.9 14.8 13.4 12.5 Dec '24 LNG export price (A$/GJ) 16.1 15.6 14.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a Export price % ± (Mar vs Dec forecasts) 0 10 14 n/a n/a n/a n/a f - forecast z - projection Source: OCE REQ Argus gas prices ($/mn Btu) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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