Viewpoint: Brazil biofuel policy under pressure in 2024

Spanish Market: Biofuels
29/12/23

The prospect of a tighter market for Brazil's carbon credit Cbios could intensify struggles between fuel distributors and biofuel producers over compliance with Brazil's national biofuel policy Renovabio in 2024.

A flurry of lawsuits filed by distributors opposing Cbio acquisition obligations established under Renovabio may alter Brazil's carbon credit market. Some injunction requests have been granted, others were denied, but all are preliminary with no rulings based on merit, Argus found. If the federal government manages to quash the injunctions, it could lead retailers who had hopes for a legal victory rushing back to the Cbios market. A victory for retailers, on the other hand, could put the Renovabio program in check.

"The account is unpayable [for distributors]. We are entering a reckless situation," a source linked to distributors with lawsuits told Argus. In addition to a fine, those who failed to meet 2022 Cbios targets are obligated to add the shortfall to their 2023 goals.

Legal uncertainty leaves market participants on alert, especially large distributors who are fully complying with the goals of Renovabio and fear unfair competition from those who are in default. Such concerns will gain more relevance if the price of Cbios strengthens over the course of 2024.

Participants expect Cbios prices will remain firm, between R100-110 ($20-22), in the coming months. If the 2022 shortfall and 2023 volumes be met by the March 2024 deadline for the 2023 target, 41mn Cbios will need to be accounted for. This will further erode carryover inventories, estimated between 6mn-9mn Cbios, that will be needed to meet the 2024 goal of 38.8mn between April-December.

Fearing a tight market, distributors interested in building inventories early could enter 2024 with a strong appetite. Strong demand could be balanced by cash flow needs among ethanol plants towards the end of the first quarter, after the harvest is wrapped up. These factors could increase Cbio price volatility in the new year.

The good news on the supply side is Brazil's national energy policy council CNPE's recent decision to increase the biodiesel blending mandate to 14pc from 12pc, a change that enters into force in March 2024. The CNPE also approved the creation of a working group to study the "technical feasibility" of raising the anhydrous ethanol content in gasoline to 30pc from 27.5pc.

Decarbonization debate

Legal challenges from regional distributors are part of a broader push for a change to Renovabio rules.

One of the main sources of pressure from distributors is their roles as the mandatory part, responsible for the demand side of Cbios, that they want to shift to the fuel refining and importing sector. Others are pushing for a change that would establish a term of sale obligation on the part of "emitters," which includes biofuel producers.

Renovabio's 2023 was marked by talks and responses involving associations of distributors and producers, especially when the price reached a high of R150 in July. In the final accounting, the government's decision to reduce the 2024 target to 38.8mn credits from an initial goal of 50mn decreased prices in the second half of the year. Prices ranged between R105-109 on 28 December, up from R87 on 30 December 2022.

Renovabio, by design, has the potential to encourage a reduction of the carbon footprint of fuel production, but still faces price obstacles that could hinder the increase in biofuel production, market sources say.

Under Renovabio, each Cbio generated from the sale of biofuel represents one ton of CO2 avoided. The program sets annual targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for fuel distributors. The goals are achieved through the acquisition of Cbios sold by biofuel producers.

By Conrado Mazzoni

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28/03/25

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

Adds comment from the European Commission London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. Market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. The European Commission confirmed that the committee met on 26 March to discuss sustainable certification, promotion of biofuels, avoidance of double counting, and alleged fraud. "We are still working on our examination of this alleged fraud in biodiesel imports from China," said commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But the commission has not taken any decision yet and cannot allude to "possible" scenarios, she said. By John Houghton-Brown, Simone Burgin and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

28/03/25

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. There has been no official statement from the European Commission but market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. By John Houghton-Brown and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oil, biofuel groups meet to align on RFS policy

27/03/25

Oil, biofuel groups meet to align on RFS policy

New York, 27 March (Argus) — Energy and farm groups met last week at the American Petroleum Institute to negotiate a joint request for President Donald Trump's administration as it develops new biofuel blend mandates, according to five people familiar with the matter. The private meeting involved groups from across the supply chain, including representatives of feedstock suppliers, biofuel producers, fuel marketers, and oil refiners with Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) obligations. The groups coordinated earlier this year around a letter to the Trump administration on the need to update the RFS and are now seeking agreement on other program elements. According to the people familiar with the matter, the groups agree on pushing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set higher blend mandates under the program's D4 biomass-based diesel and D5 advanced biofuel categories. Groups support slightly different volume targets that are nevertheless all in "a rounding number of each other" in the D4 category, according to one lobbyist. But there is still disagreement about whether to ramp up mandates quickly in 2026 or provide a longer runway to higher volumes. Clean Fuels Alliance America and farm groups have publicly supported a biomass-based diesel mandate of at least 5.25bn USG starting next year, which could justify a broader advanced biofuel mandate above 9bn USG, according to the people familiar, though others worry about fuel cost impacts if mandates spike so quickly. The current mandate for 2025 is 7.33bn USG in the advanced biofuels category, including a 3.35bn USG mandate for the biomass-based diesel subcategory, so the volumes being pushed for future years would be a steep increase. The RFS, highly influential for fuel and commodity crop prices, requires oil refiners and importers to blend annual amounts of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those who do. The idea behind the groups' coordination is that the Trump administration might more quickly finalize RFS updates if lobbyists with a history of sparring over biofuel policy can articulate a shared vision of the program's future. One person familiar said the effort comes after the Trump administration directed industry to align biofuel policy goals, though others said they understood the coordination as largely voluntary. EPA did not provide comment. There is less agreement around the program's D6 conventional biofuel category, which is mostly met by corn ethanol. Oil groups have in the past criticized EPA for setting the implied D6 mandate at 15bn USG, above the amount of ethanol that can feasibly be blended into gasoline, though excess biofuels from lower-carbon categories can be used to meet conventional obligations. Ethanol interests support setting the D6 mandate even higher than 15bn USG, which could be a tough sell. The discussions to date have not involved targets for D3 cellulosic biofuels, a relatively small part of the program. A proposal to lower 2024 volumes has hurt D3 credit prices, signaling that future mandates are effectively optional, according to frustrated biogas executives , and has reduced the salience of the issue for other groups. A proposal from President Joe Biden's administration to create a new category called "eRINs" to credit biogas used to power electric vehicles has similarly not come up. "We're not expecting to see any attempt to include eRINs in this next [RFS] proposal," Renewable Fuels Association president Geoff Cooper told Argus earlier this month. The meeting last week was largely oriented around the RFS, though a National Association of Truck Stop Operators representative raised the issue of tax policy too. The group has been frustrated by the expiration of a long-running blenders credit and the introduction this year of a less generous credit for refiners, which is only partially implemented and has spurred a sharp decline in biomass-based diesel production. But others involved in negotiations, while they acknowledge tax uncertainty could hurt their case for strong mandates, are trying to avoid contentious topics and focus mostly on volumes. Republican lawmakers are separately weighing whether to keep, repeal, or adjust that credit to help out fuel from domestic crops, and there is no telling how long that debate might take to resolve. Another thorny issue discussed at the meeting is RFS exemptions for small refineries. Biofuel producers strongly oppose such waivers and say that exempted volumes should at least be reallocated among facilities that still have obligations. Oil groups have their own views, though it is unclear how involved the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — which represents some small refiners and has generally been more critical of the RFS than the American Petroleum Institute — are in discussions. EPA is aiming to finalize new volume mandates by the end of this year , people familiar with the administration's thinking have said, though timing for a proposal is still unclear. Future conversations among energy and farm groups to solidify points of unity — and strategize around how to downplay disagreements — are likely, lobbyists said. RIN prices rally Speculation over the trajectory of the RFS, and the potential for higher future volumes, supported soybean oil futures and widened the bean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread. The BOHO spread maintains a positive correlation with D4 RIN prices as a widening value raises demand for D4 credits as biofuel producers look to offset higher production costs. Thursday's session ended with current-year ethanol D6 credits valued between 79¢/RIN and 82¢/RIN, while their D4 counterparts held at a premium and closed with a range of 84¢/RIN to 89¢/RIN. These gains each measured more than 5.5pc growth relative to Wednesday's values. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Virgin, Qatar airlines partner on Australia SAF project

27/03/25

Virgin, Qatar airlines partner on Australia SAF project

Singapore, 27 March (Argus) — Privately-held airline Virgin Australia and state-owned carrier Qatar Airways will partner with bioenergy firm Renewable Developments Australia (RDA) on a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) project near the city of Charters Towers in northern Queensland state. The project seeks to build an alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) facility with a nameplate capacity of 96mn litres/yr of SAF to be supplied to nearby airports, most likely to terminals at Townsville and Cairns city. The refinery is in the pre-final investment decision stage and is aiming to reach first output in early 2029, according to RDA. "Our SAF facility will be a fully integrated production site, generating sustainable fuel from bioethanol derived from locally grown sugarcane," RDA managing director Tony D'Alessandro said on 27 March. SAF by-products will be used to generate renewable power on-site and increase sustainability credentials, RDA said. Qatar last year agreed to buy a 25pc stake in Virgin , Australia's second-largest airline, with plans to increase international flights to Australia using Qatar planes wet leased by Virgin approved last month. The development comes after Virgin last week agreed to a deal with Australian refiner Viva Energy to operate services from the town of Proserpine in north Queensland using a SAF blend for several months this year . North Queensland's sugar industry has attracted interest from other developers of AtJ plants, including Australian bioenergy developer Jet Zero's 113mn l/yr Project Ulysses at Townsville, which has attracted funding from investors including Australian carrier Qantas, Airbus and Japanese energy conglomerate Idemitsu Kosan. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Demanda por caminhões encarece fretes de biodiesel

26/03/25

Demanda por caminhões encarece fretes de biodiesel

Sao Paulo, 26 March (Argus) — A alta demanda por caminhões encareceu os preços de fretes rodoviários de biodiesel na maioria das regiões brasileiras, segundo levantamento feito pela Argus. O Centro-Oeste apresentou a maior alta no volume de biodiesel transportado entre janeiro-fevereiro, com aumento de 35,2pc, para 53,706m³. No período, houve uma alta de 9,4pc nos preços dos fretes da região, para R$147,2/m³. A pesquisa foi realizada a partir de dados enviados pelos principais distribuidores de combustíveis do país, considerando a média ponderada por volume. As regiões Norte e Sudeste, registram avanços de 5,3pc e 4,2pc no carregamento do biocombustível, para 33,635m³ e 175,480m³, respectivamente. Os preços subiram acima de 13pc e 5pc, para R$268,3/m³ e R$237,4/m³. No Sul, as buscas por transporte do biocombustível caíram 7,3pc, influenciadas pelo aumento do transporte ferroviário. No Nordeste, a queda foi de 6,8pc. Agentes do mercado relataram problemas na contratação de fretes, em função da menor disponibilidade de transporte em um momento de ampla aquisição de volumes e consumo de combustíveis e pelo descasamento de rota – quando o caminhão só consegue fazer um trecho carregado. O consumo de combustíveis tem aumentado devido ao avanço da colheita de soja no país, que hoje supera 75pc das áreas cultivadas, segundo a Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). A fiscalização para o cumprimento da mescla do biocombustível no diesel, realizada pela Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP), também impulsionou o consumo. Além disso, os preços de diesel originado na Rússia ficaram mais baratos do que o combustível vendido pela Petrobras desde o início do mês, o que favorece as aquisições do produto para estoque . Esse aumento da compra do combustível fóssil nos portos, especialmente Santos (SP) e Itaqui (MA), também elevou o tempo dos caminhões na estrada e, consequentemente, interferiu na disponibilidade e prazo de cumprimento de fretes de biodiesel. Os gargalos nas operações de coleta de biodiesel levaram distribuidoras a negociarem a participação de produtores nas operações logísticas, aumentando as vendas entregues no terminal por parte das usinas. A disputa na contratação de fretes para transporte de etanol também está entre os fatores citados por participantes de mercado. Os preços dos fretes de etanol subiram 2,7pc na região Centro-Oeste. Com o aumento na demanda por combustíveis em fevereiro na comparação com o janeiro, a distância percorrida cresceu 12,8pc para o transporte de biodiesel na região Centro-Oeste, seguida por um avanço de 11,2pc no Norte e queda de 3,9pc no Sudeste. A expectativa do mercado é de que os preços dos fretes continuem se sustentando, mesmo após o fim da colheita de soja no país. O início da safra de cana de açúcar 2025-26, em 1º de abril, também exerce pressão de alta entre os fretes de biocombustíveis. Por Natalia Dalle Cort Envie comentários e solicite mais informações em feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Todos os direitos reservados.

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