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I-REC demand at record high in February

  • Spanish Market: Electricity
  • 07/03/24

Global demand for international renewable energy certificates (I-RECs) reached a record high in February, driven by strong demand in Brazil, while I-REC issuances were up on the month.

Global I-REC redemptions totalled 32.9TWh in February, up from 23.8TWh in January and above the previous monthly high of 26.9TWh in March last year. Global I-REC issues marginally exceeded redemptions, at 33.6TWh in February, up on the month from 26.3TWh in March and up of the year from 26.4TWh in February last year.

Redemptions in Brazil were at a record high at 9.7TWh, above the previous high of 6.3TWh in February last year. Issuances also were at a record high, at 9.9TWh of 2023 vintage I-RECs. Nearly three quarters of the 21.1TWh of 2023 vintage I-RECs issued have been redeemed, while for the 2022 vintage, 92pc have been redeemed. Argus last assessed 2023 Brazilian hydropower prices at $0.16/MWh and solar and wind at $0.19/MWh.

Elsewhere in Latin America, demand also reached a record high in Colombia and Guatemala, at 2.13TWh and 500GWh, respectively. Hydro I-RECs are on offer at about $1.20/MWh in Colombia and $0.80/MWh in Guatemala for 2023 vintage.

Malaysian I-REC demand rose to 3.5TWh, from a previous high of 2.8TWh in February last year. I-REC demand surged last year in Malaysia, with 9.1TWh redeemed, up from 1.5TWh in 2022. A total of 4.9TWh Malaysian I-RECs have been redeemed this year and only 1.5TWh issued. Malaysian solar 2023 I-RECs trade at a premium to most neighbouring markets and were last assessed by Argus at $5/MWh, while hydro I-RECs were assessed at $1.20/MWh.

Thai I-REC demand reached 0.85TWh in February, up from the previous high of 0.78TWh in December last year. Only 570GWh were issued in February. Thai I-RECs at present are priced at $1.30/MWh for hydro and $1.70/MWh for wind and solar 2023 vintage.


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31/10/24

China trade tensions could cloud climate summit

China trade tensions could cloud climate summit

China argues that its industrial emissions are needed to provide technology and goods for the global energy transition London, 31 October (Argus) — As the world's leading greenhouse gas emitter, China will struggle to align its reduction efforts closer to those required under the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C global warming target while at the same time fending off trade barriers. "It is imperative to properly handle the relationship between new energy and traditional energy," President Xi Jinping said earlier this year. Chinese CO2 emissions posted zero year-on-year growth in the third quarter, despite a rebound in coal-fired output, as clean power generation also grew rapidly, Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) says. But Beijing remains guarded on whether its CO2 emissions have peaked, with coal still an integral part of its energy mix. It has set a 2030 target for peak emissions but will likely reach this some years early, the country's new climate envoy, Liu Zhenmin, says. "If we want to achieve global carbon [neutrality], first we have to provide the world with more affordable, secure technology. Second, we need to address financing," Liu says, referring to the finance requested by developing countries from developed countries to enable the former to reach their climate targets. China is set against being dragged into contributing to the new climate finance goal, despite calls from developed countries for it to do so. China deals with climate action on its own terms. It opted out of a pledge to treble renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency at last year's UN Cop 28 climate summit in Dubai, although it did agree to the final conference text, which made mention of the pledge. China's nationally determined contribution (NDC) includes a target date for reaching peak CO2 emissions, but lacks clear goals for peaking emissions of other greenhouse gases such as methane. Beijing is due to update its NDC by February. To remain in line with the Paris accord's 1.5°C target, the new NDC will need to aim for an at least 30pc reduction in CO2 emissions from 2023 levels by 2035 and set absolute reduction targets, CREA says. And sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) — battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles — need to account for 60pc of total new car sales by 2035, from 50pc currently, to drive transport sector emissions down to 2020 levels, CREA says. China had nearly 25mn NEVs on its roads in June and is on course to quadruple this figure by 2030. Its renewable power capacity has already surpassed a 1.2TW target for 2030, enabling Beijing to cut its approvals for new coal-fired power plants by almost 80pc on the year in January-June, according to environmental group Greenpeace. But China's coal production capacity continues to increase. Chinese power demand is set to rise by more than 500 TWh/yr in the next 5-10 years. Beijing could meet this demand with more renewable and nuclear power generation, but nuclear currently holds a mere 5pc share of China's electricity mix. Brace brace China had seemingly narrowed its climate policy differences with the US in terms of approach and objectives, and played a role alongside the US in bringing a consensus around fossil fuels language at Cop 28. But China is bracing for a showdown on climate finance at Cop 29 in Baku next month. China and advanced economies accounted for more than 95pc of electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2023, energy watchdog the IEA says. But China could be subject to huge new tariffs on exports to the US if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November. Tariffs would have to be at 40-50pc to deter Chinese EV imports, consultancy Rhodium says — the EU on 29 October announced a slew of tariffs on Chinese EVs of up to 45pc. Western countries would add $6 trillion to global energy transition costs if they decouple from Chinese products, Liu says. China's carbon emissions by source China's industrial carbon emissions Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: EU-GCC eye alliance anchored in energy, security


31/10/24
31/10/24

Q&A: EU-GCC eye alliance anchored in energy, security

Dubai, 31 October (Argus) — Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the start of the war in Gaza last year hastened the strengthening of relations between the EU and the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) ꟷ something both blocs had long been striving for. Argus sat down with the EU's special representative for the Gulf region and former Italian foreign minister Luigi di Maio at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh this week to discuss his hopes for the future of the relationship. You spoke at the conference about a comprehensive EU-GCC trade agreement. Such a thing has been on the table for a while without really moving forward. Could the first ever EU-GCC summit two weeks ago in Brussels provide the push needed for it to happen? The final statement of the summit clearly emphasised the importance of finalising the negotiation in a positive way, and reaching the free trade agreement at a regional level as soon as possible. Then we can start tailor-made negotiations on trade and investments. This can work in complementarity with the free trade agreement, for instance, on investments and energy co-operation bilaterally. This doesn't mean we are going to kill the free trade agreement at the regional level, but there are some sectorial co-operations that we can implement. This is a very good starting point. I would say the summit was ‘the message' because although our co-operation agreement dates back to the late 1980s, it was the first ever summit. Of course, that also testifies to the gap that we have to fill. This is why the EU approved the new strategy and why there is a special representative to implement this strategy. And why we are working with the Gulf countries to negotiate and implement [it] as soon as possible. Riyadh is where we opened the first ever European Chamber of Commerce in the GCC. The EU and Saudi Arabia are going to sign an energy co-operation MoU by the end of the year. The text has been discussed, and now we will work for the signature. What are the elements of this energy agreement with Saudi Arabia? It is a new framework to co-operate, particularly, on renewables, hydrogen, and technologies linked to renewables. This is very important, and currently in the hands of the EU commissioner for energy, Kadri Simson, and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia. Speaking of hydrogen, Prince Abdulaziz spoke here about Saudi Arabia being one of the lowest-cost producers of hydrogen. We also know that hydrogen is a major element of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor [IMEC] agreement signed at the G20 summit in New Delhi. Is the IMEC project still on the table? And is this growing hydrogen relationship between the EU and the GCC part of it? First, the lesson we, the EU, learned is diversification. So, it's very important to implement our diversification policy on any kind of energy source. It is not only linked to oil, gas or hydrogen, or in general, technologies, raw materials and production. Then there is the issue of how much we can count on the suppliers. The Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and others have always been reliable partners. This is why we see the energy co-operation as a pillar of our partnership. On hydrogen, there is a mutual interest to meet our ambitions. Our ambition, according to the European Commission's REPowerEU proposal, is for the EU to produce 10mn t of hydrogen on its soil by 2030, and import another 10 mn t. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman are working with our companies and member states to export hydrogen to Europe. And I think the development of technologies and new projects around that will be at the core of our future co-operation. If you look at Vision 2030, here in Saudi Arabia, but even in the UAE and in the other countries, many of the goals are in line with our REPowerEU, NextGenerationEU, or the European Green Deal proposals. So there is momentum, and we are taking it. We are trying to fill the gap of the past. And the very important thing, not only about hydrogen, but even about the climate co-operation that is in our final statement [of the EU-GCC summit], is that it's not an "Una tantum" [one-off] event. We are working to have the ministerial foreign ministers' meeting in Kuwait next year and the next EU-GCC summit in Saudi Arabia in 2026. We have a long road ahead to implement the deliverables of the last summit, but also to improve our co-operation on renewables. There was a significant breakthrough at Cop 28 with the mention of fossil fuels in the final declaration. Do you see the growing EU-GCC relationship as a leverage to push GCC countries on their climate agendas and goals? The approach should not be that we push them on their climate agendas. We are working together. And thanks to the multilateral relations, ambitions and policies that we have, we can, even in view of Cop 29, co-ordinate in the same way we did at Cop 28. This is very important, because thanks to their influential foreign policy, on Africa, on central Asia, even sometimes on Latin America, and our ambitions and partners around the world, we can merge our relations to take another step forward on climate policy. But as you said, Cop 28 was historic, as consensus was the most ambitious result of the UN climate Cops, and I think we have to continue on this path together. It is not a matter of pushing someone. It's a matter of co-operation. Our level of partnership with GCC has to switch at a strategic level. We want to create a strategic partnership on peace and prosperity. This is our agreed ambition on both sides. Speaking of peace and prosperity, Iran is involved indirectly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its direct confrontation with Israel leaves the GCC sandwiched in the middle. How do you see the EU working with the GCC to attain peace and prosperity, given the increased insecurity in the region? We share with the GCC the interest of peace, prosperity and stability of the region. Because if you look at these countries, what are they doing on Ukraine, like returning children and prisoner exchanges… They are very active, and we appreciate their efforts. So my perception is that the more we work with the GCC on regional stability, the more we will achieve results, because we have a common agenda. They will be very important for the future of the two-state solution, but also for the stability of Lebanon. Even for conveying messages of de-escalation to Iran. The channels with Iran have to be open… to convey messages about nuclear, ballistic missiles, about weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, and the ‘Axis of Resistance' policy in the region, about the Red Sea and the freedom of navigation. We have to use all the channels we have and the channels the GCC have are precious because of the normalisation processes in the region, just like the Iran-Saudi Arabia one. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Guatemala's power capacity tender opens tomorrow


30/10/24
30/10/24

Guatemala's power capacity tender opens tomorrow

New York, 30 October (Argus) — Guatemala will open a tender for 1.2GW of power capacity on Thursday. The power capacity tender will include supply contracts for 15 years. It will have two components, one to add capacity to existing plants and another for new technologies. It will be the first tender of this kind in eight years. The new capacity is critical as demand is expanding and Guatemala is looking at options to take advantage of opportunities for nearshoring. "This tender is very important, because demand is increasing while supply has been static," Gabriel Velasquez, director of energy planning in the energy ministry, said on the sidelines of the Latin American Energy Organization (Olade) annual meeting in Paraguay. "We want to prioritize renewables, but the technologies chosen will depend on the economic offers we receive." The ministry will also launcha tender for transmission lines in December, the first in 10 years. It will include 483km (300 miles) of 230kV, 138kV and 69kV lines. It will also include two substations. The ministry is simultaneously talking with investors and multilateral development banks to provide power to isolated communities. Velasquez said this could include microgrids and distributed generation using solar technology. Half of Guatemala's electricity currently comes from hydroelectric sources, with another 45pc coming from thermal generation and the rest from other technologies. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LatAm-China energy ties lurk for next US leader


30/10/24
30/10/24

LatAm-China energy ties lurk for next US leader

Sao Paulo, 30 October (Argus) — China's growing economic reach into Latin America's energy and commodities has figured little in the latest US presidential campaign, but either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump may eventually have to face the topic. China began formally trying to increase its reach into Latin America in 2018, when it invited the region to be a "natural extension" of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The effort has brought mixed results. So far, 22 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have joined the massive Chinese infrastructure initiative, but hydrocarbons producers such as Colombia and regional powerhouse Brazil have not. The latter wants to "take the relationship with China to a new level without having to sign an accession contract," the Brazilian special presidential adviser for international affairs Celso Amorim said on 28 October. This came after agriculture minister Carlos Favaro said earlier that joining the BIR would be "positive" for the country. "There are projects that Brazil has defined as a priority and that may or may not be accepted [by Beijing]," Amorim said. Still, China has found other ways of increasing its grasp in Brazil, such as increasing exports of electric vehicles — with automaker BYD setting a R5.5bn ($1.1bn) investment plan in the country — and crude . But China is a major trade partner for all of Latin America. Exports of all goods from Latin America and the Caribbean to China reached a record $208bn in 2023, with Chinese imports into those regions hitting $242bn, according to Boston University Global Development Policy Center. Around 70pc of those exports are of copper, soybeans and crude — the two latter mainly coming from Brazil — while another 20pc comprise of beef and livestock. With or without the BRI, China's larger grasp in Latin America is seen as problematic in the US by both sides of the political spectrum. "The discourse of competition between the US and China has crossed party lines," according to Conrado Baggio, an international relations professor in Cruzeiro do Sul University. "Any candidate for president needs to present a firm and combative rhetoric towards Beijing." Chinese efforts de-dollarize the world economy also concern Washington, but mildly. China along with the other Brics countries — Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa — have led efforts to reduce the world's economy dependence on the US dollar and are working on an independent crossborder payment settlement platform to "minimize trade barriers." But results have been mixed as well. For instance, the Chinese yuan surpassed the dollar as the main currency in bilateral trades between Brazil and China in April-June 2023. But the American currency is still the main coin on over 80pc of Brazilian trade with other countries. "De-dollarization initiatives have hardly gone beyond rhetoric," Baggio said. Harris and Trump have opposing views on many topics and their approach to China is no different. Trump is likely to take a more confrontational stance on China, including higher tariffs and sanctions. That could naturally increase trade between Latin America and China, according to Fernando Galvao, a Brazilian economic analyst. On the other side of the aisle, Harris might choose a more diplomatic strategy. "Harris may prioritize rebuilding international alliances and strengthening multilateral institutions," Galvao added. Still, a Harris administration is more likely to emphasize environmental and human rights issues, which could pressure Latin America to adopt more sustainable policies. Failure to do so could lead to more trade with China, he added. But although the US will certainly keep an eye on China's relationship with Latin America, that is hardly the main concern within the US' foreign relations scope. "Given Washington's increasing involvement in Europe, with Russia and Ukraine, and in the Middle East, with Iran and Israel, Latin America may occupy a secondary position within the US' concerns," according to Baggio. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Central America, Caribbean lag behind renewable targets


29/10/24
29/10/24

Central America, Caribbean lag behind renewable targets

New York, 29 October (Argus) — Central America and the Caribbean are falling behind global renewable goals for 2030, international renewable energy agency Irena said. The next five years "will be crucial for making the necessary investments and implementing concrete political measures," the agency said in a report ahead of the UN's Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month. Renewable sources accounted for 38.7pc of Central America and the Caribbean's power capacity in 2023, lifted by a year on year installed capacity growth of 5.2pc, or 900MW of new renewable projects. But to achieve the global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, the region needs an average annual growth rate of renewables of 16.4pc, Irena said. Some countries have been doing better than others at installing renewable capacity, the report said. Costa Rica, Guatemala and Panama have been expanding renewable capacity, while Trinidad, Dominican Republic and Jamaica are seeking investments. But cost is a problem for small countries attempting to transition from their high dependence on fossil fuels. Some hurdles for small countries can be overcome by tax credits, levies and duty exemptions on key materials and components, Irena suggested. Revenues from fossil fuel taxes could also be used, it said. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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