Red Sea disruption hits Middle East NH3 exports in 1Q

Spanish Market: Fertilizers
22/03/24

Middle Eastern ammonia exports are on course to fall by 6pc on the quarter in January-March, reflecting plant outages, reduced demand in India, and difficulties shipping west of Suez. Exports are expected to pick up heading into the second quarter, as plants return and Indian demand recovers.

Middle Eastern exports are due to reach just over 1mn t in the current quarter, up by 12pc year on year, but down from 1.1mn t in October-December.

Sabic's Safco 3 unit in Saudi Arabia is in turnaround this month, while Omani firm OQ's Salalah plant has been intermittently offline since January. The most recent estimated output loss from these outages is 50,000-70,000t. But Safco 3 should return next month, and Saudi Arabia's biggest producer, Ma'aden, plans to increase April exports by 40,000-50,000t from January-March's monthly average.

Shipments to Morocco — where at least three Middle Eastern producers hold supply contracts — might have posed a problem this quarter. With the Red Sea route too risky, deliveries to Jorf Lasfar around the Cape of Good Hope are taking 10-12 days longer each way, pushing up costs. But producers have charged additional tonne-miles or sold on a fob basis, and volumes loaded for delivery to phosphate producer OCP at Jorf Lasfar are due to average nearly 85,000 t/month in the first quarter, up from 76,900 t/month in October-December.

But deliveries to regular customers in Jordan and Bulgaria are now uneconomical. No ammonia has been sent to Jordan this quarter, against 65,500t in October-December, and Middle Eastern producers have been looking east for alternative outlets.

East of Suez

But shipments east of Suez are due to fall by 9pc on the quarter in January-March, driven by lower demand. Middle Eastern producers usually export the most ammonia to buyers in India through term contracts. India imported 155,000 t/month from the Middle East in 2023, but just 62,400t is due to be sent to India in March. At least seven Indian plants have cut runs or are under turnarounds in March-April, partially because of a lack of phosphoric acid supply from Jordan.

Reduced demand in India has offset any tightness that might have built up in the Middle East as a result of loading delays or outages. Last week, two producers entered negotiations for small spot cargoes for shipment at the end of March and in mid-April. They targeted higher prices of up to $375-400/t fob, but buyers pushed back and no deals have been announced. One producer is struggling to find a shipper for a small cargo, as the Red Sea disruption stretches the ammonia fleet.

Reduced optionality for cargo destinations has limited any upward pressure on Middle East fob values, which have been falling since November. The price settled at $290/t fob at the mid-point on 21 March. And prices are still under pressure because of weaker pricing in destination markets. A 25,000t Saudi cargo was sold to OCP by trading company Trammo at $400/t cfr. The cargo will be delivered to Jorf Lasfar in the first half of April.

The full Middle East vessel line up can be downloaded here.

By Lizzy Lancaster

Middle East fob vs exports

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

15/11/24

India's RCF issues tender for MOP and 10-26-26

London, 15 November (Argus) — Indian importer RCF has floated a tender for 30,000t of standard MOP and 30,000t of 10-26-26, closing on 18 November. Shipments are to be made to any of India's east coast ports before 30 November. Suppliers can submit offers for either or both products. Offers should be valid until 22 November. The MOP supplied should be red, pink, white or off-white. The NPK is requested to be white or off-white. RCF also has pending tenders for 15-15-15 and 20-20-0+13S. Fellow importer Fact recently awarded its 10 October tender to buy 40,000t of standard MOP to Russian fertilizer producer Uralkali at $283/t cfr with 180 days credit, the prevailing contract price in India. By Nykole King Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's IPL outlines ports for urea tender awards

15/11/24

India's IPL outlines ports for urea tender awards

Amsterdam, 15 November (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer and producer IPL has allocated ports to suppliers for awards under its 11 November tender, which saw the firm buy 1.03mn t of urea for the west coast. IPL issued letters of intent to agreed suppliers for just over 1mn t at $362/t cfr west coast in the evening of 14 November . The breakdown of the awards by supplier and port are detailed in the table below. IPL requested loading by 25 December. Middle East producers are set to dominate supply and will likely end up accounting for half of the tonnage, with netbacks equating to around the high $340s/t fob. Russian tonnage amounts to 200,000t so far at $305-310/t fob Baltic, while Malaysia's Petronas could account for around 100,000t. Nigeria's Indorama will load a total of three urea vessels to IPL next month — one directly and two for trading firms, following one cargo to RCF under the previous Indian urea tender. Nigerian urea moving eastwards highlights the comparative weakness in the Americas. This trend was further underscored by Egypt's Abu Qir also opting to support a trading firm with a prilled urea vessel under this latest tender. By Harry Minihan IPL 11 November urea tender port allocations Supplier Quantity (t) Discharge port Samsung 45,000 Mundra Samsung 45,000 Mundra Samsung 45,000 Mundra Samsung 45,000 Kandla Samsung 45,000 Kandla Sun International 50,000 Mundra Indorama 46,000 Kandla Ameropa 47,150 Pipavav Agrifields 40,000 New Mangalore Agrifields 30,000 New Mangalore Aditya Birla Global Trading 55,000 Mundra Aditya Birla Global Trading 42,000 Mundra Aditya Birla Global Trading 50,000 Pipavav Aditya Birla Global Trading 50,000 Adani Tuna Koch 47,500 Kandla ETG 50,000 Adani Tuna Hexagon 47,000 Pipavav Midgulf 38,800 Rozy Midgulf 46,000 Mundra Fertistream 31,500 Jaigarh Keytrade 42,000 Rozy Fertiglobe 45,000 Dahej Fertiglobe 45,000 Hazira West coast total 1,027,950 — Market sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LAT Nitrogen halts sales to Germany on high gas costs

14/11/24

LAT Nitrogen halts sales to Germany on high gas costs

London, 14 November (Argus) — Major European producer LAT Nitrogen has withdrawn from the German market today owing to a surge in gas costs. LAT Nitrogen produces nitrogen-based products for the fertilizer and industrial chemical markets. It sells CAN, ASN and NPK 15-15-15 to the German market. "We will closely monitor the development of gas prices before considering a return to the market," LAT Nitrogen market intelligence and demand planning analyst Harald Lindner said. Front-month natural gas prices on the Dutch TTF have climbed steadily over the past two months, reaching more than €45/MWh today, up by €10/MWh from September. CAN is a key nitrogen fertilizer used in the German market and spot prices have stagnated at about €280/t bulk cif inland and have failed to grow ahead of the season, despite higher list prices. Yara raised its CAN asking price on 16 October to €305/t bulk cif inland for delivery to Germany and the Benelux countries, up from its previous offer of €295/t bulk cif inland. Buying interest from farmers has been incredibly slow ahead of spring applications this year. Market coverage in Germany for nitrogen fertilizers for the 2024-25 fertilizer year is estimated to be 40-45pc, down from an average of 60-65pc by mid-November. Weak grain prices, reduced farm incomes and warehouses full of unsold agricultural produce are also said to be behind the lack of demand for fertilizers from consumers. Some wholesalers are expecting sales to remain slow until the start of 2025, which will give distributors logistical challenges to deliver product ahead of early spring applications. LAT Nitrogen began maintenance in mid-September on some of the lines at its Linz site in Austria, affecting downstream fertilizer output of ammonia, nitric acid, CAN and NPKs. This was due to be finished by early November. The Linz site is a major source of fertilizers for central and eastern Europe, with CAN 27 annual production roughly at or above 600,000t in typical recent years, according to latest IFA data. The 429,000 t/yr prilled urea plant at Linz was unaffected by the maintenance and is running as normal. By Suzie Skipper Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European urea market braces for CBAM impact in 2026

14/11/24

European urea market braces for CBAM impact in 2026

London, 14 November (Argus) — European producers and traders of urea are preparing for the phase-in of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in early 2026. While EU producers expect their market share to rise, questions about the implementation, pricing, and oversight remain, leading to uncertainty among agricultural urea traders. The European AdBlue market is also weighing the possible impact. Under CBAM, which was passed by the EU in May 2023, urea importers will have to buy certificates to cover the carbon emitted during production wherever the plant is located. In the UK, the government confirmed its CBAM application on fertilizers and other commodities from 1 January 2027. CBAM is aimed at creating a level playing field for imports to the EU and the UK, while nudging non-EU countries towards climate action. European producers of urea currently have to contend with lower margins because their production cost is higher than that of non-EU manufacturers since the introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). European producers are therefore at a disadvantage. The transition period in the EU for CBAM began on 31 October and will last until 31 January 2026. During this time, urea importers must provide quarterly reports on their imports and the carbon emitted during production. In February 2026, the phase-in for CBAM will begin. After that point, importers must buy enough CBAM certificates to cover at least 80pc of embedded carbon each quarter. Urea imports will therefore become more expensive in 2026. The exact increase in fertilizer prices, including urea, will depend on the cost of CBAM certificates, which in turn will be based on the weekly average price for EU ETS allowances. EU ETS certificates are currently priced at €66/t CO2 but are due to rise in the future. Calculating an exact price for CBAM certificates is difficult, Argus was told by affected parties. But estimates range anywhere from average indications of €10-20/t or even up to €80-100/t for imported urea. Higher prices will inevitably be passed on to the end-user. However, if one assumes that CBAM will add €10-20/t on the price of agricultural grade urea, then the estimates suggest that the cost of a loaf of bread will rise by €0.10-0.50, which is negligible, a European fertilizer wholesaler suggested. Given the uncertainty of CBAM's effect on pricing, some suppliers are cautious about trading too far into the future. Agricultural buyers purchase product in advance of the key application seasons, but importers often attempt to time purchasing around dips in international prices. European producers welcome CBAM European urea producers have welcomed the introduction of CBAM. They have sold automotive grade urea (AGU) at a premium to imports for several years, and as a result, they have lost market share. Norwegian fertilizer producer Yara said in its third-quarter results that it plans to only progress projects with the highest returns and concrete potential margins, driven by firm regulatory changes like the EU ETS and CBAM. The ETS and CBAM policies are likely to lift urea prices in Europe , and this would trigger increased nitrate fertilizer and NPK margins for Yara, if upgraded from low-carbon ammonia, according to the producer. Some traders expect AGU imports to fall with the phase-in of CBAM, and domestic producers' market shares to increase again. However, the European market relies on imports for both agricultural and automotive grade urea so heavily that a lasting, significant drop in imports seems unlikely, analysts said. "Fertilizer import quantities, including agricultural grade urea, will not be negatively affected by CBAM as importers will absorb the new costs, as those that are subject to duties have done so previously," a German trader said. There is, for example, not nearly enough prilled or granular urea production in Europe to cover demand, making imports impossible to avoid. In 2023, the EU 27 imported just over 5mn t of urea from just the top three non-EU suppliers — Egypt, Algeria and Russia — with an additional 6.3mn t from both within the EU and outside. Urea imports in January-August 2024 were 7.2mn t, down by 8pc from 7.8mn t in the first eight months of 2023. During this period imports from Egypt, Russia and Algeria accounted for almost 51pc. Furthermore, European urea traders have expressed concerns that it may be difficult for authorities to check carbon emissions at plants outside the EU, and that potential loopholes could allow foreign product to enter the market at discounted rates. There are also questions surrounding how the EU will regulate issuing CBAM certificates. Importers will not have to buy CBAM certificates, for example, if the producer has already paid a carbon price in the country of origin. Impact on AGU and Europe's AdBlue market The European AdBlue market might also feel the effects of the CBAM. AdBlue is produced by mixing AGU with deionised water. While most AdBlue in Europe is produced by primary producers using domestic urea, there are an increasing number of so-called diluters, which import competitively priced urea, and then offer AdBlue at a discount. If the price gap between domestic and foreign urea is closed, diluters might be forced to increase their prices as well. AdBlue traders in Germany and the Netherlands suggest that a narrowing price gap between these secondary producers and primary ones could affect the former's market share. The market share has been growing steadily in the past few years. That growth might be halted or even partially reversed once CBAM comes into effect. According to Argus calculations, AGU consumption in Europe will continue to rise until 2027, in line with the projected growth in AdBlue demand ( see graph ). AGU imports, similarly, are expected to grow until 2029, peaking at about 85,000 t/yr. By Natalie Müller and Suzie Skipper Projected growth in Europe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bangladesh’s BCIC issues phosrock buy-tender

14/11/24

Bangladesh’s BCIC issues phosrock buy-tender

London, 14 November (Argus) — Bangladeshi fertilizer producer and importer BCIC has issued a tender to buy 30,000t of phosphate rock of at least 70 BPL (32pc P2O5), closing on 31 December. BCIC wants the cargo to be shipped to Chattogram within 30 days from issuing the letter of credit. Bangladeshi demand has added support to phosphates in the east and helped to tighten availability. BCIC will also close tenders to buy phosphoric acid on 18 and 20 November, and 1 January. And Bangladesh's ministry of agriculture has reportedly awarded cargoes under its 10 November private-sector tender after getting offers for 94,000t of DAP ranging $692-697/t cfr and 30,000t of TSP at $573/t cfr. The awarded prices, volumes and origins have not yet emerged. The ministry will close another private-sector tender seeking 200,000t of DAP and TSP on 18 November. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more