30/12/24
Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle
Viewpoint: Crop-based feedstocks face an uphill battle
Houston, 30 December (Argus) — US biofuel producers' demand for soybean and
canola oil has waned recently, a trend that looks unlikely to reverse in the
near term because of domestic policy changes that prioritize lower carbon
intensity feedstocks. Expectations that a US renewable diesel boom would drive
up demand for vegetable oil led agribusinesses to announce new soybean crush
plants and expansions in 2022. Seven new soybean crush plants have come online
since then, increasing US nameplate capacity by 10pc to 2.91bn bushels/yr, but
new policies have diverged from crop-based feedstocks because of their higher
carbon intensity. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted to adopt new
low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) targets on 6 November. CARB hiked the
carbon-intensity reduction target of California's transportation fuels from 20pc
to 30pc by 2030, in hopes of balancing the pool of oversupplied LCFS credits,
which alone reduced incentives for crop-based fuels. But more critically, the
new rules will impose tighter restrictions for crop-based feedstocks, capping a
company's LCFS credit generation from vegetable oil-based biofuel at 20pc/yr,
starting in 2028 for existing plants. Apart from that, CARB will require
producers to track the point of origin of crop-based feedstocks, adding to
costs. Soybean oil-based biofuel already fetches a lower LCFS credit value in
California, and the additional traceability requirement could further deter
biofuel producers. Soybean oil- and canola oil-based fuel made up approximately
20pc of the biodiesel and renewable diesel traded into California during the
second quarter of 2024, according to CARB's most recent quarterly data. While
soybean oil is the most used feedstock in US biodiesel production, used cooking
oil (UCO) leads US renewable diesel production. Biofuels produced with lower
carbon-intensity feedstocks like UCO, tallow and distillers corn oil receive
generous LCFS credits compared to soybean oil and canola oil. That credit
premium has led to a surge in UCO and tallow imports into the US , weighing on
demand for soybean oil and leading to outcry from farm groups to restrict
foreign feedstocks from qualifying for the Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC).
More challenging is the expiration of the blenders tax credit (BTC) by the end
of 2024, which offers $1/USG to biomass-based diesel regardless of the carbon
intensity of their feedstocks. The CFPC, also known as the 45Z credit under the
Inflation Reduction Act, will replace the BTC in 2025. Unlike the BTC, the CFPC
will provide a tax credit based on how low the carbon intensity of the fuel is
to a baseline level of 50kg of CO equivalent/mmBTU. This means crop-based diesel
fuels will receive far less credit value starting next year than they received
for years under the BTC. Some renewable diesel and biodiesel producers are set
to idle production in January amid a lack of clarity on how the tax credit
changes will impact fuel and feedstock demand. Biofuel and agriculture groups
are also waiting final guidance for "climate-smart agricultural practices" and
how that would factor into the final 45Z credit for vegetable oil-based
biofuels. These climate-smart practices might include no-till farming, planting
cover crops, efficient fertilizer use, and more. The US Department of
Agriculture [recently sent guidelines](
https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2636843) on climate-smart
agricultural crops used as biofuel feedstocks to the White House for final
review, giving the industry some hope that they will qualify for a bigger
federal credit under 45Z. But how much crop feedstocks will be able to close the
gap with waste feedstocks is unclear. US soybean oil futures fell to 39.52¢/lb
as of 27 December, down by 17pc from the start of 2024, weighed down by the
prospects of a large South American soybean crop and lackluster demand from the
US biofuel industry. The US Department of Agriculture's December World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected Brazil's 2024-25
soybean production at 169mn t, 10pc higher compared to the prior year. Argentina
soybean production was forecast at 52mn t, up by 7.9pc from a year
earlier.Soybean planting is ongoing in both regions, with Brazil at 98pc
completion as of 22 December and Argentina at 85pc as of 26 December. Some
relief from falling soybean oil future prices has come from increased US soybean
oil exports, driven by palm oil prices hitting their highest level since 2022.US
export commitments for soybean oil were at 526,630t as of 19 December,nearly
surpassing the US Department of Agriculture's currently projected level for
2024-25 marketing year. Mexico is among the major buyers of US soybean oil, but
if president-elect Donald Trump imposes 25pc tariffs on imports from Mexico ,
retaliatory action could affect soybean oil demand. Despite the support from
soybean oil export sales, the vegetable oil industry will still need support
from the US biofuel industry for prices to recover. And should palm oil prices
fall, US soybean oil producers will not be able to rely as much on international
markets, leaving them to lean more heavily on fighting for changes in US
biofuels policy. By Jamuna Gautam Send comments and request more information at
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