IEA downgrades 2024 oil demand growth

Spanish Market: Crude oil
15/05/24

The IEA now sees oil demand growth in 2025 outpacing this year, after it again downgraded its forecast for 2024 — mostly because of lower than anticipated first-quarter demand in Europe.

In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published today, the Paris-based agency lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 140,000 b/d to 1.06mn b/d, citing weak gasoil consumption. This would leave total oil demand in 2024 at 103.16mn b/d.

"Poor industrial activity and another mild winter have sapped gasoil consumption this year, particularly in Europe where a declining share of diesel cars in the fleet were already undercutting consumption," the IEA said.

The agency again lowered its 2024 forecast for Chinese oil demand growth, this time by 30,000 b/d to 510,000 b/d. It sees China's growth slowing to 360,000 b/d in 2025, but the country will remain the largest single contributor to global growth.

The IEA also highlighted a rise in global oil inventories, which increased for a second consecutive month in March — by 36.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show further stock builds in April as "onshore oil inventories skyrocketed after oil on water was discharged." This after onshore stocks fell in March to the lowest since at least 2016, and OECD inventories to a 20-year low.

The latest estimates mean the IEA now sees oil demand growth coming in higher in 2025 at 1.18mn b/d, up by 30,000 b/d from last month's estimate. This contrast sharply with Opec, which continues to see much higher growth this year at 2.25mn b/d and next year at 1.85mn b/d.

On global oil supply, the IEA lowered its 2024 growth estimate by 160,000 b/d to 580,000 b/d citing maintenance in Canada, outages in Brazil and logistical constraints in the US. It noted a 150,000 b/d fall in Russian output in April, related to a new Opec+ production cut.

It forecasts non-Opec+ growth to rise by 1.4mn b/d this year, and an 840,000 b/d fall from Opec+ because of production cuts. The agency projects global gains next year at 1.8mn b/d, with supply hitting a record 104.5mn b/d.

The US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil continue to dominate global supply gains with a combined forecast 1.1mn b/d of additions this year and next.

The IEA's latest forecasts imply a tighter market in 2024 than it previously anticipated. Its balances now show a global oil supply deficit of 460,000 b/d this year, compared with 270,000 b/d in last month's report. The projections assume Opec+ voluntary cuts remain in place until the of the year, although the group has yet to decide its output policy for the second half of the year. It may do so at a ministerial meeting scheduled for 1 June in Vienna.

The IEA's latest balances put the call on Opec+ crude at around 42mn b/d in the second half of this year — 700,000 b/d above the group's April output.

A recent slide in oil prices could keep pressure on the alliance to keep the cuts in place for longer. The IEA put the fall in oil prices down to concerns over the health of the global economy and dissipating fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

By Aydin Calik

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27/03/25

Several countries have met fossil finance pledge: CSO

London, 27 March (Argus) — Two-thirds of "high-income" signatories that pledged to end public finance for international fossil fuels have policies in place that realise their commitment, civil society organisation (CSO) Oil Change International said today. Of the 17 "high-income" signatories, 11 are compliant, Oil Change found. They total ten developed countries — Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK — as well as EU development institution the European Investment Bank (EIB). The policy details vary, "but all put a complete halt to investments in new oil and gas extraction and LNG infrastructure", Oil Change said. The pledge referred to — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — was launched at the UN Cop 21 climate summit in 2021. It aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Other countries have updated policy to restrict fossil fuel financing abroad, but Oil Change has deemed them not in line with the pledge made. Belgium's policy "breaches the end-of-2022 deadline, allowing support for projects that have received promise of insurance by July 2022 into 2023", Oil Change said. The Netherlands allows some projects that requested support in 2022 to be approved in 2023, while there are "energy security exemptions and exemptions for some continued support in low-income countries", Oil Change said. The CSO assessed Germany's policy as containing a number of "major loopholes", including not ruling out public finance for gas infrastructure and gas-fired power plants. And it noted that Italy's policy for its export credit agency "allows fossil fuel finance to continue virtually unhindered". Germany has provided $1.5bn across 11 projects since the 2022 deadline passed, while Italy approved nearly $1.1bn for four projects in 2023, Oil Change said. Oil Change classed Switzerland's policy as "severely misaligned", while Portugal has not submitted a policy and the US has withdrawn from the agreement. The US provided $3.7bn for 12 international fossil fuel projects between end-2022 and end-2024, while it approved $4.7bn for the Mozambique LNG project after leaving the CETP. The CETP now has 40 signatories including five development banks and 35 countries. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

26/03/25

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

Adds details throughout Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose a 25pc tariff on foreign-made cars and trucks imported into the US, but said there will be no tariffs on automobiles assembled in the US. Trump said the new tariffs on imported automobiles marked the "beginning of Liberation Day", the term Trump has used to reference his plan to unveil sweeping tariffs on major foreign trade partners on 2 April. The White House estimates the tariff on imported cars and trucks will generate $100bn/yr in new tariff revenue. Trump said the auto tariff will go into effect on 2 April, providing a financial incentive for automakers to relocate manufacturing to the US. "We'll effectively be charging a 25pc tariff, but if you build your car in the United States, there's no tariff," Trump said in remarks at the White House. "And what that means is a lot of foreign car companies, a lot of companies, are going to be in great shape." The auto tariffs will likely add thousands of dollars to the price of many imported cars and trucks. But the tariffs — the details of which have yet to be released — appears more targeted than Trump's initial plan to impose a 25pc tariff on nearly all imports from Canada and Mexico, because the tariffs would not apply to cars and trucks parts, so long as the vehicles are assembled in the US. "Anybody that has plants in the United States it's going to be good for, in my opinion," Trump said. Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that Trump's plan to impose a nearly across-the-board import tariff could have caused auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Trump eventually delayed those tariffs until 2 April. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to impose new tariffs on auto imports

26/03/25

Trump to impose new tariffs on auto imports

Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump will announce new tariffs on the automobile industry later today, the White House said, at a time of significant uncertainty about his trade policies. Trump plans to offer further details on the automobile tariffs this afternoon, less than a week before he plans to announce tariffs against major foreign trade partners on 2 April, which Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day". Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Trump last month threatened to impose 25pc tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, starting on 4 March — including imported automobiles and vehicle parts — but he eventually offered a one-month reprieve for US automakers before delaying those tariffs entirely until 2 April. The scope and timing of the upcoming automobile tariffs remains unclear, and the White House has yet to provide further details. But Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that steep tariffs on Canada could cause auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's recent decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. "This is the beginning of a lot of things happening," Trump said. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

26/03/25

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

Sao Paulo, 26 March (Argus) — Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial on charges of an attempted coup following his 2022 electoral defeat, the supreme court (STF) ruled today. In February Brazil's prosecutor-general charged Bolsonaro and seven other people — which include some of his former ministers — of plotting to guarantee that the former president stayed in power despite losing the election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital of Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents , the prosecutor-general said. STF's five-judge panel voted unanimously to put Bolsonaro on trial, with top judge Alexandre de Moraes saying that the 8 January insurrection was a result of "systematic efforts" by Bolsonaro and his aides to discredit the election he lost. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 40 years in jail. He is charged with five crimes, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempted coup and threatening to harm "the Union's assets." Although it is not clear when court proceedings will begin, they are expected this year, which is unusually fast for Brazil's justice system. "They are in a hurry, big hurry," Bolsonaro said of the legal proceedings on social media platform X, adding that the case is moving "10 times faster" than Lula's proceeding when he was on trial for the anti-corruption Car Wash investigation. Lula was eventually found guilty of money laundering and corruption and jailed in April 2018, but was later acquitted and freed in November 2019. Bolsonaro also added that the trial is politically motivated. "The court is trying to prevent me from being tried in 2026, because they want to stop me from running in the elections," he added. Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026. The electoral court voted in June 2023 to make Bolsonaro ineligible to run for any public office until 2030. But he is still seen as a major political force in the country. It is unclear who will serve as Bolsonaro's successor for more conservative voters, although Sao Paulo state's governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the most likely candidate. Bolsonaro — who sat in the president's seat from 2019-2022 — also faces several other legal challenges to his conduct as president, including allegations of money laundering, criminal association and embezzlement for allegedly receiving jewelry as gifts from Saudi Arabia related to the sale of state-controlled Petrobras' 330,000 b/d Landulpho Alves refinery in northeastern Bahia state to the UAE's Mubadala Capital. But none of these allegations have moved forward in the judiciary. During his administration, Bolsonaro privatized several state-owned energy assets and put little priority on environmental protections, policies that Lula has since reversed. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Port Harcourt included in Bonny crude loading plans

26/03/25

Port Harcourt included in Bonny crude loading plans

London, 26 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery has been allocated three cargoes of domestic light sweet crude Bonny Light in April-May, according to traders, suggesting that any issues affecting receipts in February and March might have been resolved. The refinery — which restarted operations late last year following a revamp — has been allocated a 950,000 bl cargo loading over 5-6 April and two 475,000 bl shipments loading over 22-23 April and 1-2 May, traders said, citing the latest loading programmes. All three cargoes are to be loaded by the refinery's operator, state-owned NNPC. Market sources said last month that Port Harcourt's February and March crude allocations had been cancelled , with one of the sources saying a crude unit at the refinery was not functioning. This was not confirmed by NNPC. And a source at the company has since told Argus that a 475,000 bl shipment of Bonny Light had been due to be pumped to Port Harcourt before operations at the grade's export terminal were briefly disrupted by a fire on the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP) last week. The Renaissance Africa consortium — which recently took over operatorship of the TNP and the Bonny terminal from Shell — said pipeline flows were restored on 19 March. Port Harcourt — which is designed to run Bonny Light — was originally built as two refineries, and rehabilitation work has only been completed at one 60,000 b/d section. Total loadings of Bonny Light have been revised to 209,000 b/d for April across seven cargoes and have been set at 202,000 b/d for May across the same number of cargoes. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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