Investment funds’ long TTF position tops 129TWh: Update

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 19/06/24

Updates net long figure based on new Ice report released same day

The net long position of investment funds at the Dutch TTF gas hub has reached its highest since January 2022 at more than 129TWh, according to the latest data released by the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice).

Investment funds have traded much more heavily at the TTF over the past two months, with their net long position more than quadrupling to 129TWh on 14 June from 31.8TWh in early April, the most recent Ice commitment-of-traders report shows.

This is the largest net long position that investment funds have held in the past two and a half years. Late 2020 was the last time that investment funds increased their net long position so quickly, jumping from roughly 75TWh on 27 November 2020 to a peak of nearly 256TWh on 12 February 2021 (see investment fund graph). Firms began to unwind this net long position from May, and there was a switch to a net short position in April 2022-August 2023.

Continued TTF price volatility may have attracted more investment funds in recent months, particularly as the front-month contract earlier this month hit its highest since December, peaking at €35.88/MWh on 3 June. Russian pipeline gas used to provide the European market with a large degree of flexibility, but the loss of most of this gas, along with higher reliance on LNG, has reduced Europe's supply buffer and has exposed the TTF more to factors well outside Europe. Extended downtime at the Wheatstone LNG plant in Australia, a facility that provides no cargoes to Europe, caused the TTF front-month contract to jump to €36.12/MWh in intra-day trading last week. Similarly, news of shelling in the region of Sudzha, the location of the last still-functioning interconnection point between Ukraine and Russia, caused the TTF front-month contract on Ice to spike by more than €1/MWh in the space of two minutes before falling again. Such sudden jumps and falls have become increasingly common in recent months, with many traders noting the role of algorithmic trading in this phenomenon.

A volatile trading environment is more attractive to investment funds than to other types of market participants, as they make most of their money from price volatility whereas utilities make most of their money from the margins on their sales to customers and associated services.

The investment funds' move to a large net long position contrasts with a rapid move to a net short position by commercial undertakings, defined as companies with retail portfolios. These two trader categories each held net long positions of roughly 77TWh at the start of November. But investment funds had unwound this into a small net short position by March, while commercial undertakings continued to go longer, reaching a peak of 159TWh in mid-December. Mid-February appears to have been a turning point, with investment funds beginning to climb to a net long and commercial undertakings quickly unwinding to small net short.

This was mostly driven by commercial undertakings' increasingly large net short position for "risk reduction contracts", topping 161TWh, as a hedge for similarly sized net long positions on the physical side in storage (see commercial graph). This is only the third time since 2018 that commercial undertakings' aggregate position has been net short, with the only other notable time being for a prolonged period in January-August 2021, as well as one brief week in June 2020. This likely reflects historically high EU stocks at the end of the 2023-24 winter, which have to be counterbalanced by risk-reduction hedging contracts.

ICE TTF net positions TWh

ICE TTF commercial undertakings positions TWh

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28/06/24

US Supreme Court ends 'deference' to regulators

US Supreme Court ends 'deference' to regulators

Washington, 28 June (Argus) — The US Supreme Court's conservative majority, in one of its most significant rulings in years, has thrown out a landmark, 40-year-old precedent under which courts have offered federal agencies significant leeway in deciding how to regulate the energy sector and other industries. In a 6-3 ruling that marks a major blow to President Joe Biden's administration, the court's conservatives overturned its 1984 ruling Chevron v. NRDC that for decades has served as a cornerstone for how judges should review the legality of federal regulations when a statute is not clear. But chief justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said experience has shown the precedent is "unworkable" and became an "impediment, rather than an aid" for courts to analyze what a specific law requires. "All that remains of Chevron is a decaying husk with bold pretensions," the opinion said. For decades, under what is now known as Chevron deference, courts were first required to review if a law was clear and if not, to defer to an agency's interpretation so long as the government's reading was reasonable. But the court's majority said the landmark precedent has become a source of unpredictability, allowing any ambiguity in a law to be a "license authorizing an agency to change positions as much as it likes." Roberts wrote that the federal courts can no longer defer to an agency's interpretation "simply because" a law is ambiguous. "Chevron is overruled," Roberts writes. "Courts must exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority." The court's ruling, named Loper Bright Enterprises v. Gina Raimando, focuses on lawsuits from herring fishers who opposed a rule that could require them to pay about $710 per day for an at-sea observer to verify compliance with regional catch limits. The US Commerce Department said it believes it interpreted the law correctly, but the fishers said the "best interpretation" of the statute was that it did not apply to herring fishers. The court's three liberal justices dissented from the ruling, which they said will likely result in "large-scale disruptions" by putting federal judges in the position of having to rule on the merits of a variety of scientific and technical judgments, without the benefit of expertise that regulators have developed over the course of decades. Overturning Chevron will put courts "at the apex" of policy decisions on every conceivable topic, including climate change, health care, finance, transportation, artificial intelligence and other issues where courts lack specific expertise, judge Elena Kagan wrote. "In every sphere of current or future federal regulations, expect courts from now on to play a commanding role," Kagan wrote. The Supreme Court for years has been chipping away at the importance of Chevron deference, such as a 2022 ruling where it created the "major questions doctrine" to invalidate a greenhouse gas emission rule limits for power plants. That doctrine attempts to prohibit agencies from resolving issues that have "vast economic and political significance" without clear direction from the US Congress. That has led regulators to be hesitant in relying on Chevron to defend their regulations in court. The Supreme Court last cited the precedent in 2016. The ruling comes a day after the Supreme Court's conservatives, in another 6-3 ruling , dramatically curtailed the ability of the US Securities and Exchange Commission — and likely many other federal agencies — to use in-house tribunals to impose civil penalties. The court ruled those enforcement cases instead need to be filed as jury trials. That change is expected to curtail enforcement of securities fraud, since court cases are more resource-intensive. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Biden, Trump trade attacks in presidential debate


28/06/24
28/06/24

Biden, Trump trade attacks in presidential debate

Washington, 28 June (Argus) — The first presidential debate of the 2024 election drew out few new details on energy policy, as President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump hammered each other on issues such as inflation and the state of the US economy. The debate, held in Georgia on Thursday without a live audience, marked the first time Biden and Trump have shared a stage since their last debate in 2020. Biden, who is trailing Trump in many polls, at times struggled to clearly articulate his policy positions — or even to be heard — while Trump repeatedly sought to blame Biden for issues such as high inflation and the outbreak of military conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. "He has not done a good job," Trump said. "And inflation is killing our country. It is absolutely killing us." The substance of the debate was largely overshadowed by the candidates' inability to dispel voters' concerns about them. Needing to put to rest worries about his age, the 81-year-old Biden often appeared feeble and confused. Trump refused to acknowledge he lost the last election and continued to defend the mob that attacked the US Capitol on 6 January 2021. Biden throughout the debate defended his record on the economy, while focusing many of his attacks on Trump's personal conduct, including Trump's conviction on 34 counts in a case involving alleged hush money payments to an adult film star. Biden also criticized Trump's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, which Biden said ultimately contributed to high inflation. "He didn't do much at all," Biden said. "By the time he left, things were in chaos." The debate repeatedly focused on federal tax policy, particularly a range of tax cuts enacted during Trump's presidency that are set to expire in 2025. A key provision of that tax package cut the top corporate tax rate to 21pc from 35pc. Biden said he would make the tax system more fair by increasing taxes on the wealthy, while arguing that Trump's policies would result in higher inflation and additional costs for consumers. Trump has said he would extend the expiring tax cuts, which are expected to cost $4 trillion over a decade, in addition to seeking deeper tax cuts and a 10pc tariff on all imports. Trump said he rejected the findings of many independent economists that such a tariff would drive up prices for consumers and add to inflation. "It's just going to cause countries that have been ripping us off for years — like China and many others, in all fairness to China — it's going to just force them to pay us a lot of money." Biden argued Trump's policies would result in higher inflation and additional costs for consumers. "He now wants to tax you more by putting a 10pc tariff on everything that comes into the United States of America," Biden said. Trump pivoted to issues such as energy and regulations when he was asked about his actions during the attack on the Capitol. "On January 6, we were energy independent," Trump said. And when pressed on whether he would pursue policies to deal with climate change, Trump focused on having "clean air" and "clean water", while defending his decision to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord. "It was a rip off of the United States, and I ended it because I didn't want to waste that money," Trump said. Biden said Trump did not do a "damn thing" when in office to clean up the air and water and criticized his inaction on climate change. Biden defended his suite of climate rules and support for clean energy, but he failed to tout passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided support for electric vehicles, renewable energy and advanced manufacturing. On foreign policy, Trump insisted that a variety of global conflicts would have never occurred if he was in office. He contended that the war in Ukraine would abruptly be resolved if he were re-elected. "I'll have that war settled," Trump said. "I will get it settled, and I'll get it settled fast before I take office." Biden defended his record on foreign policy, saying he ushered through crucial support that has helped in the defense of Ukraine and Israel. Biden said that stood in contrast to Trump, who he said "encouraged" Russian president Vladimir Putin to invade other countries and has threatened to undermine Europe's defenses against military attacks. "This is a guy who wants to pull out of NATO," Biden said. The debate occurred just days before the US Supreme Court is expected to decide whether Trump, or any other president, should be immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken in office. Trump's attorneys have argued he should be immune from prosecution for any official acts while holding office, which could affect a criminal charge that he sought to undermine the 2020 election. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico to tap economist for energy minister


27/06/24
27/06/24

Mexico to tap economist for energy minister

Mexico City, 27 June (Argus) — Mexican president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum appointed economist and lawyer Luz Elena Gonzalez to become energy minister in her government that will take office on 1 October. Gonzalez has a long record in public service and served as finance director of the Mexico City government during Sheinbaum's tenure as the capital's mayor from 2018-2024. She has no direct energy industry experience. Sheinbaum won a convincing victory in the 2 June presidential elections and will take office on 1 October when Morena political party founder and current president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ends his six-year term. Gonzalez will face a range of challenges as energy minister including completion of the long-delayed Olmeca refinery, development of a plan to tackle state-owned Pemex's enormous debt, expansion of Mexico's electricity generation and grid capacity with a renewed focus on clean energy and the construction of natural gas storage. She will also be in charge of policy decisions that will define the role of private-sector investors in the energy sector. Gonzalez will replace Miguel Angel Maciel, appointed following energy minister Rocio Nahle's resignation in October 2023 to pursue the Veracruz gubernatorial election. Nahle, who took office as energy minister in 2018, led efforts to build the Olmeca refinery and has been a strident supporter of Lopez Obrador's energy sovereignty policy that has sought to restrict private-sector investment. Sheinbaum also appointed Jesus Esteva as transport minister, Raquel Buenrostro as civil service minister, David Kershenobich as health minister and Edna Elena Vega as urban and rural development minister. All of the candidates appointed today have either worked with Sheinbaum during her period as Mexico City mayor or in Lopez Obrador's government. By Rebecca Conan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Supreme Court limits SEC enforcement power


27/06/24
27/06/24

US Supreme Court limits SEC enforcement power

Washington, 27 June (Argus) — The US Supreme Court has thrown out the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) ability to use in-house proceedings to seek civil penalties for securities fraud, finding those cases must instead be brought before a jury trial in federal court. The Supreme Court, in a 6-3 ruling in the case SEC v Jarkesy , said continuing to adjudicate those cases internally would be a violation of the the Seventh Amendment of the US Constitution, which protects the right to a jury trial in some cases. The court's ruling marks a win for conservatives that have pushed to curtail the powers at the SEC and other federal agencies, which often rely on in-house administrative law judges (ALJs) to adjudicate enforcement cases that can be complicated and highly technical. The Supreme Court's ruling centered around an enforcement case filed in 2013 against an investment fund owner named George Jarkesy, who the SEC alleged defrauded investors by misrepresenting investment strategies and inflating the claimed value of the fund. The SEC relied on part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial law to pursue the case internally through an ALJ, which imposed a $300,000 civil penalty against Jarkesy, which he then challenged in federal court. But chief justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said the securities fraud charges could only be brought through a lawsuit in federal court, where there would be an independent judge, a jury trial and broader due process protections. Roberts said that the US Congress had exceeded its powers when it said that securities fraud lawsuits could be adjudicated internally by the SEC, which he said would concentrate the roles of "prosecutor, judge and jury in the hands of the executive branch." The court's opinion could have ramifications across the federal government for enforcement cases that also used ALJs, and which have been put on hold awaiting the Supreme Court ruling. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relied on an ALJ when it sought $40mn in penalties from the owner of the Rover natural gas pipeline and a separate case that is seeking up to $223mn in fines from France's TotalEnergies for natural gas trades in 2009-12. FERC chairman Willie Phillips said the agency would take a "careful look" at the opinion but did not have an immediate comment. Although the SEC and other agencies can still pursue the same enforcement cases under the Supreme Court's holding, a jury trial can be more resource-intensive and unpredictable than a case brought before an ALJ, who usually has years of experience in the technicalities of securities and energy laws. Public interest groups have worried the result will be reduced enforcement of federal laws meant to protect the public from fraud and manipulation, particularly in cases where penalties are small. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who wrote the dissent, said the court's decision was a "power grab" that ignored the policy considerations that Congress made when it authorized the SEC to pursue securities fraud cases internally, such as greater efficiency, expertise, predictability and uniformity in how federal securities laws are enforced. Sotomayor said the court had also disregarded its own precedent, set in a case in 1977, that affirmed agencies could pursue civil penalties internally. The Supreme Court did not rule on the merits of other issues in Jarkesy, such as the claim that the process for appointing ALJs was unconstitutional. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bolivia coup attempt exposes instability


27/06/24
27/06/24

Bolivia coup attempt exposes instability

Montevideo, 27 June (Argus) — Bolivia's government quickly thwarted an attempted coup on Wednesday, but the military action deepened the country's economic and political problems. President Luis Arce fired the commander of the joint chiefs of staff, army general Juan Jose Zuniga, who was subsequently arrested. The government claimed that an "anti-democratic network" in the armed forces involved around 10,000 troops. While the coup failed, it added to the instability that has gripped the country as it transitions away from being a major natural gas supplier and tries to monetize its vast lithium resources. The administration attempted to calm fears as long lines remained at banks and retail fuel stations the day after the coup. The hydrocarbons and energy ministry released a statement on 27 June that everything was normal with fuel supply around the country. It called on the population to refrain from panic buying. State-owned oil and natural gas company YPFB reiterated the message. The company had already been dealing with a strike by truck drivers and road blockades around the country that slowed distribution of gasoline and diesel, as well as 10kg LPG cylinders for household use. Bolivia has seen a sharp decline in natural gas and oil production, with the country now importing close to 80pc of diesel. Crude production was 21,780 b/d in March, down from 50,170 b/d in 2025. Natural gas production is now hovering around 40mn m³/d, down from a peak of 56mn m³/d in 2006, according to YPFB. Gas exported through pipelines to neighboring Argentina and Brazil has been an economic mainstay, but that is changing. Bolivia will stop exports to Argentina in September, and it has a deal to export up to 20mn m³/d to Brazil. Gas exports to Argentina earned Bolivia $223 mn in the first four months of 2023, falling to $164mn this year; it exported $423.5mn to Brazil between this January-April, down from $518mn in 2023. The government wants to replace gas revenues with those from lithium. It has signed direct lithium extraction deals with Chinese and Russian companies, but production is not expected for several years. Bolivia has an estimated 23mn short tons of lithium resources, the largest in the world, according to the US Geological Survey. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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