Bolivia coup attempt exposes instability

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
  • 27/06/24

Bolivia's government quickly thwarted an attempted coup on Wednesday, but the military action deepened the country's economic and political problems.

President Luis Arce fired the commander of the joint chiefs of staff, army general Juan Jose Zuniga, who was subsequently arrested. The government claimed that an "anti-democratic network" in the armed forces involved around 10,000 troops.

While the coup failed, it added to the instability that has gripped the country as it transitions away from being a major natural gas supplier and tries to monetize its vast lithium resources.

The administration attempted to calm fears as long lines remained at banks and retail fuel stations the day after the coup.

The hydrocarbons and energy ministry released a statement on 27 June that everything was normal with fuel supply around the country. It called on the population to refrain from panic buying.

State-owned oil and natural gas company YPFB reiterated the message. The company had already been dealing with a strike by truck drivers and road blockades around the country that slowed distribution of gasoline and diesel, as well as 10kg LPG cylinders for household use.

Bolivia has seen a sharp decline in natural gas and oil production, with the country now importing close to 80pc of diesel. Crude production was 21,780 b/d in March, down from 50,170 b/d in 2025. Natural gas production is now hovering around 40mn m³/d, down from a peak of 56mn m³/d in 2006, according to YPFB.

Gas exported through pipelines to neighboring Argentina and Brazil has been an economic mainstay, but that is changing. Bolivia will stop exports to Argentina in September, and it has a deal to export up to 20mn m³/d to Brazil. Gas exports to Argentina earned Bolivia $223 mn in the first four months of 2023, falling to $164mn this year; it exported $423.5mn to Brazil between this January-April, down from $518mn in 2023.

The government wants to replace gas revenues with those from lithium. It has signed direct lithium extraction deals with Chinese and Russian companies, but production is not expected for several years. Bolivia has an estimated 23mn short tons of lithium resources, the largest in the world, according to the US Geological Survey.


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28/06/24

US Supreme Court ends 'deference' to regulators

US Supreme Court ends 'deference' to regulators

Washington, 28 June (Argus) — The US Supreme Court's conservative majority, in one of its most significant rulings in years, has thrown out a landmark, 40-year-old precedent under which courts have offered federal agencies significant leeway in deciding how to regulate the energy sector and other industries. In a 6-3 ruling that marks a major blow to President Joe Biden's administration, the court's conservatives overturned its 1984 ruling Chevron v. NRDC that for decades has served as a cornerstone for how judges should review the legality of federal regulations when a statute is not clear. But chief justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said experience has shown the precedent is "unworkable" and became an "impediment, rather than an aid" for courts to analyze what a specific law requires. "All that remains of Chevron is a decaying husk with bold pretensions," the opinion said. For decades, under what is now known as Chevron deference, courts were first required to review if a law was clear and if not, to defer to an agency's interpretation so long as the government's reading was reasonable. But the court's majority said the landmark precedent has become a source of unpredictability, allowing any ambiguity in a law to be a "license authorizing an agency to change positions as much as it likes." Roberts wrote that the federal courts can no longer defer to an agency's interpretation "simply because" a law is ambiguous. "Chevron is overruled," Roberts writes. "Courts must exercise their independent judgment in deciding whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority." The court's ruling, named Loper Bright Enterprises v. Gina Raimando, focuses on lawsuits from herring fishers who opposed a rule that could require them to pay about $710 per day for an at-sea observer to verify compliance with regional catch limits. The US Commerce Department said it believes it interpreted the law correctly, but the fishers said the "best interpretation" of the statute was that it did not apply to herring fishers. The court's three liberal justices dissented from the ruling, which they said will likely result in "large-scale disruptions" by putting federal judges in the position of having to rule on the merits of a variety of scientific and technical judgments, without the benefit of expertise that regulators have developed over the course of decades. Overturning Chevron will put courts "at the apex" of policy decisions on every conceivable topic, including climate change, health care, finance, transportation, artificial intelligence and other issues where courts lack specific expertise, judge Elena Kagan wrote. "In every sphere of current or future federal regulations, expect courts from now on to play a commanding role," Kagan wrote. The Supreme Court for years has been chipping away at the importance of Chevron deference, such as a 2022 ruling where it created the "major questions doctrine" to invalidate a greenhouse gas emission rule limits for power plants. That doctrine attempts to prohibit agencies from resolving issues that have "vast economic and political significance" without clear direction from the US Congress. That has led regulators to be hesitant in relying on Chevron to defend their regulations in court. The Supreme Court last cited the precedent in 2016. The ruling comes a day after the Supreme Court's conservatives, in another 6-3 ruling , dramatically curtailed the ability of the US Securities and Exchange Commission — and likely many other federal agencies — to use in-house tribunals to impose civil penalties. The court ruled those enforcement cases instead need to be filed as jury trials. That change is expected to curtail enforcement of securities fraud, since court cases are more resource-intensive. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Libya’s oil minister asks PM to clarify who's in charge


28/06/24
28/06/24

Libya’s oil minister asks PM to clarify who's in charge

London, 28 June (Argus) — Libya's sidelined oil minister Mohamed Oun has called on Tripoli-based prime minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh to clarify who is in charge of the ministry. The question of who runs the oil ministry has been unclear since Oun returned to work on 28 May after a temporary suspension was lifted by a state watchdog. During his absence, Oun was replaced by oil ministry undersecretary Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek, who represented Libya at the latest Opec+ meeting on 2 June. Dbeibeh has continued to recognise Abdulsadek as oil minister since Oun's return to work. In a lengthy statement defending his record, Oun complained that Dbeibeh has cut off all communication with him and that it is impossible to carry out his duties under such conditions. "The presence of a legitimate minister and an illegal minister" is creating confusion in the sector, Oun added. Dbiebeh was seen as a key player behind the initial removal of Oun. Argus understands that Oun's suspension was part of an attempt to clear the way for state-owned NOC to move ahead with key oil and gas projects the he opposed. But the move received pushback from powerful figures including the head of Libya's presidential council and the country's central bank governor, leading to Oun's suspension being lifted. "I don't expect this issue to be resolved any time soon. Dbiebeh is unlikely to want to get into a fight given his weakening position over the past few weeks," Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya specialist at the UK's Royal United Services Institute, told Argus . Although the position of oil minister in Libya has been largely relegated to a nominal role — and much less powerful than the chairman of NOC — Oun has successfully used his role to galvanise public opinion against deals and policies promoted by the government and NOC. Libya remains politically fragmented, with rival governments based in the east and west of the country, and control of Libya's oil sector is coveted by a wide array of factions tussling for power. The north African country produces just above 1.2mn b/d of crude and wants to boost this to around 2mn b/d, but this will only be possible if it can advance long-stalled projects. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK HRC market ponders early closure of Tata BFs


28/06/24
28/06/24

UK HRC market ponders early closure of Tata BFs

London, 28 June (Argus) — The UK hot-rolled coil (HRC) market was pondering the potential premature closure of Tata Steel's blast furnaces today. Tata Steel UK could close both its furnaces and the wider heavy end at its Port Talbot site by 5 July because of the impending and "indefinite" strike by members of the trade union Unite, due to start on 8 July, company chief executive Rajesh Nair said in a note to employees on Thursday. Tata had initially planned to maintain blast furnace 4 until September, with blast furnace 5 going down this month. The strike, involving 1,500 workers, would mean Tata could not "maintain safe and stable operations", Nair said. Tata is trying to bring Unite back to the negotiating table, alongside other unions Community and GMB. The company said it will pursue legal action to challenge the validity of Unite's strike ballot — it has questioned whether the union met the 50pc participation threshold requirements at certain sites. Sources were caught somewhat off-guard by the news, which is complicated by the failure of the UK government to approve the Trade Remedies Authority's recommendation to suspend import quotas for HRC . With HRC import quotas still in place, supply from ‘other countries' sellers will be increasingly constrained — the duty-free quota is around 23,000/t quarter, but almost 50,000t could clear into this in 1 July, partially because of Tata's increased importation of Indian HRC. Should Tata's furnaces go off line early next month, it would need to increase imports of overseas tonnage, including from its parent company in India. Sources suggest HRC supply from its parent company could be booked for end-August arrival at the earliest. If quotas have not been suspended, there could again be duties payable for other countries' sellers. In a typical market, the disruption would clearly propel prices higher. But demand remains low, with mill tied and independent service centres competing to sell sheet as low as £620/ddp, a price which leaves no margin, based on average stock cost. Europe's imposition of a 15pc cap on countries selling into its own other countries quota is another complicating factor. That move effectively caps any country selling into that quota to 141,849t/quarter and could lead to material being diverted to the UK. The UK has not amended developing nation status as part of its latest safeguard review, meaning Vietnam — a major seller into the EU other countries' quota — can sell into the UK without quota. Vietnam is bearing the brunt of increased Chinese HRC exports, taking 3.9mn t over the first five months of this year, compared to 6.1mn t over the whole of 2023, which was a record high. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Lynas to produce heavy rare earths in Malaysia by 2025


28/06/24
28/06/24

Lynas to produce heavy rare earths in Malaysia by 2025

Beijing, 28 June (Argus) — Australia-listed mining company Lynas Rare Earths plans to start producing two separated heavy rare earth (HRE) products at its Malaysian facility by 2025. Lynas will start production of separated dysprosium and terbium at one of Lynas Malaysia's solvent extraction circuits in 2025. The facility is designed to separate up to 1,500 t/yr of a mixed heavy rare earth compound containing mixed samarium, europium, gadolinium, holmium, dysprosium and terbium (SEGH). The HRE project has completed initial engineering and detailed engineering design is underway, with commissioning and ramp-up expected in mid-2025. Lynas' HRE product range will increase to five products — dysprosium, terbium, unseparated samarium/europium/gadolinium, holmium concentrate and unseparated SEGH — after the separation of dysprosium and terbium from the SEGH compound. Dysprosium and terbium are needed to produce high-performance rare earth magnets, which are used in consumer electronics, electric vehicle engines and other automotive applications. Lynas is also progressing pre-construction activities for its planned rare earth processing facility in the US. Its facilities in Malaysia and the US have been designed to accept third-party feedstocks once they start operations. The heavy rare earths production provides a pathway to accelerate Lynas' commitment to processing all of the elements at the firm's Australian Mount Weld ore site, said Lynas' chief executive officer and managing director, Amanda Lacaze. Supply chains More national governments have been taking action to build or diversify more resilient and sustainable rare earth supply chains, to keep up with a fast-evolving clean energy transition and reduce their heavy reliance on China-origin supplies. China is the largest supplier of medium and heavy rare earths in the world, and it has been implementing stricter export control policies for rare earth extraction and separation technology. There is limited progress on the development of rare earth projects outside China, especially in the HRE market, mostly because of exploration technique restrictions, ore resource shortages, production costs and capital pressure and environmental consideration and so on. US-based rare earth producer MP Materials aims to develop a facility to produce HREs in the next few years. It has started neodymium-praseodymium oxide production since the third quarter of last year and targets commercial production of finished magnets by late 2025. Australian mineral producer Iluka Resources plans to achieve an output capacity of up to 23,000 t/yr of rare earth oxide, including 5,500 t/yr of neodymium-praseodymium oxide and 725 t/yr of dysprosium and terbium oxide from its refinery in Australia. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China, EU launch talks ahead of EV provisional duties


28/06/24
28/06/24

China, EU launch talks ahead of EV provisional duties

Beijing, 28 June (Argus) — China and the EU have launched talks on the EU's anti-subsidy investigation on battery electric vehicle (EV) imports from China ahead of the planned start of provisional duties for early next month, according to China's ministry of commerce. The European Commission on 12 June announced provisional duties on Chinese battery EV manufacturers, setting an additional rate of 17.4pc for BYD, 20pc for Geely and 38.1pc for SAIC, as well as 21pc for other producers that co-operated in the investigation, from the current 10pc duty. "Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with the European Commission's executive vice-president and trade commissioner Dombrovskis on 22 June," said the ministry's spokesperson He Yadong. "The working teams of the two sides have maintained close communication and stepped up consultations." When asked for comments regarding industry discussions on whether the two sides are likely to set minimum import prices and volumes to replace the duties, similar to the approach taken in the EU-China photovoltaic dispute in 2013, He Yadong did not answer directly, saying "We hope that the EU will push for positive progress in the consultation as soon as possible and reach a solution acceptable to both sides so as to avoid the adverse impact of escalating trade frictions on China's and EU's economic and trade relations." The European Commission said on 12 June that if talks with the Chinese government do not lead to an "effective" solution, the provisional countervailing duties will start from 4 July and definitive duties would be published before November, it said. China's main economic planning agency the NDRC on 17 June said the EU's punitive duties on battery EV imports from China will increase the EU's dependence on fossil energy . But many industry participants remain hopeful that the duties can be negotiated down via the talks before the duties are imposed. The EU, China's largest trade partner since 2020, has introduced more protectionist moves against China in recent years, especially in the EV and battery raw materials sectors, including anti-subsidy duties on EVs and the Critical Raw Materials Act. China's exports of battery EVs to Europe fell by 15pc in January-May from a year earlier and by 22pc in May, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Exports to main European destinations during January-May consisted of 115,318 units to Belgium and 67,956 units to UK. Chinese EV producers complained that the EU was requiring them to provide far more information than they needed for an anti-subsidy investigation. "Chinese EV and battery companies were required to provide information such as their battery components and chemical formulations, EV production costs, EV parts and raw material procurements, sales channels and pricing methods, customer information in Europe, and their supply chains," He Yadong said. China has taken up more than 60pc of the world's EV sales, driven by its decarbonisation targets and ambition of making up for its slower development of internal combustion engine vehicles. But it is facing more geopolitical restrictions from the US, EU and some other western countries. The US has raised its duty on China's EVs to 100pc from 25pc. Canada will also launch a consultation on 2 July for a potential punitive duty on China's EVs. Turkey has also imposed a 40pc duty on all Chinese vehicle imports. China exported 519,000 new energy vehicles during January-May, up by 14pc from a year earlier, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). But exports in May fell by 9pc from a year earlier and by 13pc from the previous month to 99,000. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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