Bolivia coup attempt exposes instability

Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
27/06/24

Bolivia's government quickly thwarted an attempted coup on Wednesday, but the military action deepened the country's economic and political problems.

President Luis Arce fired the commander of the joint chiefs of staff, army general Juan Jose Zuniga, who was subsequently arrested. The government claimed that an "anti-democratic network" in the armed forces involved around 10,000 troops.

While the coup failed, it added to the instability that has gripped the country as it transitions away from being a major natural gas supplier and tries to monetize its vast lithium resources.

The administration attempted to calm fears as long lines remained at banks and retail fuel stations the day after the coup.

The hydrocarbons and energy ministry released a statement on 27 June that everything was normal with fuel supply around the country. It called on the population to refrain from panic buying.

State-owned oil and natural gas company YPFB reiterated the message. The company had already been dealing with a strike by truck drivers and road blockades around the country that slowed distribution of gasoline and diesel, as well as 10kg LPG cylinders for household use.

Bolivia has seen a sharp decline in natural gas and oil production, with the country now importing close to 80pc of diesel. Crude production was 21,780 b/d in March, down from 50,170 b/d in 2025. Natural gas production is now hovering around 40mn m³/d, down from a peak of 56mn m³/d in 2006, according to YPFB.

Gas exported through pipelines to neighboring Argentina and Brazil has been an economic mainstay, but that is changing. Bolivia will stop exports to Argentina in September, and it has a deal to export up to 20mn m³/d to Brazil. Gas exports to Argentina earned Bolivia $223 mn in the first four months of 2023, falling to $164mn this year; it exported $423.5mn to Brazil between this January-April, down from $518mn in 2023.

The government wants to replace gas revenues with those from lithium. It has signed direct lithium extraction deals with Chinese and Russian companies, but production is not expected for several years. Bolivia has an estimated 23mn short tons of lithium resources, the largest in the world, according to the US Geological Survey.

By Lucien Chauvin

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12/11/24

EU steelmakers ask for scrap export curbs

London, 12 November (Argus) — European steel producers association Eurofer continues to lobby the European Commission to curb scrap exports as the industry looks to decarbonise. On 12 November, Eurofer reiterated its view that the commission "recognise steel scrap as a strategic secondary raw material under the critical Raw Material Act, ensure the robust implementation and effective enforcement of the revised EU Waste Shipment Regulation to ensure compliance with the EU environmental standards in third countries and avoid circumvention, while securing a sustainable and diversified raw materials supply by leveraging bilateral Free Trade Agreements, granting reciprocal market access and eliminating illegal export bans and other distortions." EU scrap consumption is due to increase significantly in the coming years. "Scrap exports to third countries without comparable environmental and social standards [therefore] need to be restricted to ensure that the use of ferrous scrap generated in the EU contributes to sustainability objectives aligned with the EU ones," Eurofer said. The EU has long been a net exporter of ferrous scrap, with outflows of the material standing just shy of 11mn t in the first eight months of this year, customs figures show. Last year the EU exported 17.67mn t of ferrous scrap, a 5pc rise on the year. The bloc's trade has always been heavily focused on Turkey, the world's largest importer of ferrous scrap, with annual trade ranging from over half to two-thirds of total exported volumes in the past five years. Turkey, with around three-quarters of steel production based on electric arc furnace route, is heavily reliant on European-origin material. Turkey's share of EU exports increased in recent years after the UK left the EU, but the share of shipments from the bloc started rising from the second half of the mid-2010s, when Russia, another major ferrous scrap supplier to Turkey, started restricting exports. Russian exports of scrap to Turkey fell from around 2.5mn t in 2018, to 1.9mn t in 2019 and 2021 and to just over 400,000t in 2022-24. The EU's major trading partners for scrap include Egypt, India and Pakistan, all of which are third countries to the EU and non-OECD countries whose import volumes have been increasing as Asia continued to grow its steelmaking capacities, mostly through the IF (induction furnace) route. The EU's intention to restrict scrap exports has been deeply unsettling for the many developing markets' representatives, as much as its movement towards the implementation of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), which will reduce the possibility of exports to the EU from countries where steelmaking processes and carbon emissions are not compliant with the EU's stricter standards. By Corey Aunger and Katya Ourakova Annual EU-27 ferrous scrap exports metric tonnes Country 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Turkey 11,247,281.0 12,676,091.0 10,327,403.0 10,088,491.0 6,826,876.0 Egypt 1,076,930.0 1,810,866.0 1,431,831.0 1,570,352.0 1,237,722.0 India 443,130.0 294,994.0 1,108,881.0 1,906,608.0 576,008.0 Pakistan 853,178.0 727,466.0 700,879.0 731,182.0 371,943.0 Switzerland 455,034.0 511,098.0 463,440.0 339,894.0 355,709.0 Norway 314,627.0 294,956.0 396,933.0 451,873.0 309,299.0 Morocco 197,803.0 329,901.0 556,417.0 442,498.0 258,630.0 UK 361,741.0 307,281.0 307,173.0 275,125.0 203,786.0 US 622,523.0 574,264.0 316,077.0 694,507.0 182,064.0 Moldova (Rep. of) 251,184.0 344,609.0 79,788.0 192,964.0 179,579.0 Republic of North Macedonia 74,951.0 106,400.0 112,176.0 165,404.0 115,626.0 Bangladesh 107,611.0 149,570.0 700,108.0 388,936.0 91,410.0 Total 16,371,459 18,542,680 16,843,989 17,674,602 10,822,245 2024 data for January to August — Customs and Eurostat data Turkey's total and European scrap imports, 2010-24 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Finnish, Baltic gas demand falls on year in October

12/11/24

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12/11/24

Finnish, Baltic gas demand falls on year in October

London, 12 November (Argus) — Aggregate Finnish and Baltic gas consumption dropped by nearly 24pc on the year in October, but still reached a six-month high as the heating season began. Combined demand in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania last month rose to 3.19TWh from 2.61TWh in September , in line with the typical seasonal progression, but was well below the 4.18TWh consumed a year earlier and the average of roughly 5.2TWh in 2018-21 ( see consumption graph, data and download ). Demand in all four individual countries was lower on the year, with the biggest drop in Lithuania, where consumption fell by more than 600GWh. In October 2023, the region's biggest consumer Achema had briefly resumed full production at both of its ammonia production units at Jonava , boosting Lithuanian demand that month. Despite the year-on-year drop, this was the fifth consecutive month-on-month increase after demand hit a near two-year low in May. Cumulative demand in the first 10 months of the year totalled 35TWh, well up from 30.3TWh a year earlier. That said, strong demand in the first quarter when the region experienced a prolonged cold snap supported a slightly skewed figure. If only considering April-October, demand of 18.5TWh was slightly below last year's 18.9TWh and well under the 30TWh average in 2018-21. This may indicate a more structural decline in the region's gas demand, particularly with power-sector demand falling as higher nuclear and renewables output cuts into the room left available for gas in the generation stack. Gas-fired power generation in the four countries totalled 186GWh last month, Fraunhofer ISE data show. This was well below 307GWh in October 2023, and the second lowest for any October since at least 2018 ( see gas-fired power graph ). Gas-fired output was lower on the year in all four countries, with roughly 40GWh drops in Lithuania, Finland and Latvia. Onshore wind production in Finland, by far the region's largest overall power producer, jumped by more than 1TWh on the year, more than offsetting lower nuclear and hydro output. This allowed Finland to net export around 150GWh of power, having net imported nearly 300GWh in October 2023, according to Fraunhofer data. Prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange averaged €41.74/MWh in October, up by 3pc on the month but 18pc down on the year. The price on the exchange "increasingly correlates with" the TTF, a correlation that will likely strengthen as GET Baltic trading migrates to the larger EEX platform next year , chief executive Giedre Kurme said. This transition will "create opportunities for competition, more liquid trading and price convergence", and "we are already seeing increased interest from international participants in the Baltic-Finland region", Kurme said. Firms traded 708GWh on the exchange in October, the most for any month since February, and all transactions were on the daily market. The joint Latvian-Estonian market accounted for 43pc of total trades, followed by Lithuania at 31pc and Finland at 26pc, GET Baltic said. Maintenance continues to limit Finnish LNG sendout Extensive maintenance on the Balticconnector pipeline this month, which makes all southbound capacity from Finland towards Estonia unavailable, continues to limit sendout from Finland's Inkoo LNG terminal. After maintenance on the 14-27 October gas days took exit capacity towards Estonia fully off line, this capacity is again unavailable because of further maintenance on 4-17 November. Without southward pipeline capacity, sendout from Inkoo must fall to levels that only the domestic market can absorb. Inkoo received the 145,000m³ Arctic Princess just before the maintenance started on 3 November, and the next scheduled delivery is not until 28 November ( see LNG data and download ). Sendout is likely to remain low even after the end of maintenance so as not to fully deplete stocks before the next arrival. Sendout from Inkoo averaged 23 GWh/d on 4-11 November. In contrast, sendout from Lithuania's Klaipeda terminal has jumped to 104 GWh/d this month, helping to plug the Baltic supply gap left by no southward inflows from Finland. Sendout from Klaipeda has been higher this month than the 85 GWh/d in October and 80 GWh/d on 1-11 October last year. Klaipeda has already received two cargoes this month, on 4 and 12 November, and will receive a further two on 21 and 29 November, the terminal's schedule shows. This suggests that sendout is likely to remain brisk for the rest of this month, helping to meet higher regional demand as the weather turns colder and limits the need for strong withdrawals from storage early in the winter season. By Brendan A'Hearn FinBalt gas consumption by country GWh Gas-fired power generation by country GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Negotiators positive on remaining Article 6 talks

12/11/24

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12/11/24

Cop: Negotiators positive on remaining Article 6 talks

Baku, 12 November (Argus) — Negotiators have a "positive attitude" towards outstanding talks on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement taking place at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, bolstered by the finalisation of crediting mechanism standards yesterday. The adoption of two key Article 6.4 standards on Monday night kicks off remaining talks on a very positive note, Switzerland's lead negotiator on international carbon markets under Article 6, Simon Fellermeyer, said. The approval has set the mood for remaining negotiations, lead Article 6 negotiator for New Zealand Jacqui Ruesga added. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Negotiators have already seen a more constructive attitude to discussions since the failed talks at Cop 28 in Dubai last December, Ruesga said. This was spurred on by disappointment at the lack of outcome last year, and supported by a number of informal meetings organised in the lead-up to June's Bonn climate conference, as well as increasing direction from heads of delegation on the subject. Divergence persists on some issues, but negotiators still have this positive attitude, Ruesga said. Different sides have also begun communicating the reasons behind their positions more clearly, Article 6 negotiator for Colombia Adriana Gutierrez added, which she hopes will help bring a result this year. Outstanding questions include how to deal with reporting inconsistencies and credit authorisations. Countries also still disagree on the question of whether Article 6.2's international registry should be capable of holding internationally transferable mitigation outcome (Itmo) units, or simply provide an accounting function. But talks on this point are progressing along the lines of deciding which potential functions of the registry could be integrated or dropped in the view of opposing sides, Ruesga said. The first ever Itmo transfer, which took place between Switzerland and Thailand earlier this year , would have been much easier through such a registry, Fellermeyer said. Gutierrez expects most remaining topics to be concluded ahead of Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil, next year. But some smaller, more technical elements are "bound to stick through" to the next summit, Ruesga said. There is not much appetite to reopen most elements for discussion next year, Fellermeyer said, meaning it could be that they are either concluded in Baku or left in a state of "constructive ambiguity". Agreement in Baku on the remaining Article 6 elements is important to give confidence to potential participants, Fellermeyer said, having encountered parties who declined to cooperate through the mechanism owing to a lack of visibility on the rules. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: UK sets ambitious 2035 climate target

12/11/24

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12/11/24

Cop: UK sets ambitious 2035 climate target

London, 12 November (Argus) — The UK government has set a target to cut all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 81pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline, the country's prime minister Keir Starmer said today at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The target, which will form the basis of the UK's next national climate plan, is in line with recent recommendations from the independent advisory Climate Change Committee . Energy minister Ed Miliband sought the committee's guidance shortly after the Labour government was elected in July. Starmer urged all countries to come forward with new national climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — at Cop 29. Details of the UK's new NDC are not yet clear, but Starmer said his government is "fully committed" to its pledge of zero-emissions power by 2030. He also repeated his promise for a "government that trod lightly on people's lives". "The UK is stepping up as a climate frontrunner at a time when such leadership is critically needed, co-founder of think-tank E3G Nick Mabey said. "We hope to see detailed implementation plans — ideally with sectoral commitments and a supporting investment roadmap — to lend credibility to its submission." The energy transition "is a huge opportunity", Starmer said, pointing to global appetite for renewables investment. And he noted the "advantage of being a first mover". The country's Labour government, elected in July, has diverged substantially from the previous administration on climate issues. The UK government today announced a "clean industry bonus" — a provisional £27mn ($34.6mn) per GW of offshore wind, to incentivise offshore wind developers to invest in industrial areas, many of which are rooted in the oil and gas industry. This will boost "green jobs" and support sustainable industry, the government said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Cop: Carbon credit standards key step, work continues

12/11/24

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12/11/24

Cop: Carbon credit standards key step, work continues

Baku, 12 November (Argus) — The adoption of new standards for creating carbon credits under the Paris Agreement on the first day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit yesterday is a key step, but work continues on Article 6. Cop parties agreed yesterday on standards that will cover credits for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions removals under Article 6.4 of the Paris accord. The new standards set requirements for developing and assessing projects and establish rules covering carbon removal projects. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. Cop 29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev said the decision is a critical step towards concluding Article 6 negotiations. "This will be a game-changing tool to direct resources to the developing world and help us save up to $250bn/yr when implementing our climate plans," Rafiyev reiterated. "[The] centralised UN mechanism for markets looks at the projects that are not financially feasible currently and how it can help in providing some stream of revenue," chair for the supervisory body Maria al-Jishi said. UN climate body UNFCCC chief Simon Stiell said that yesterday's breakthrough was a good start but pointed out that this was "the product of over 10 years of work within the process" and that more work remains to be done. Cop parties must reach a deal on other aspects of implementing 6.4 and 6.2, which together govern how countries can use carbon credits to meet their GHG emissions-reduction pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Remaining issues include the nature of credit registries, the guidance for inclusion of removals and a solution for dealing with reporting inconsistencies and credit authorisations. Overlapping articles 6.4 and 6.2 elements are still under discussion and will require a decision at Cop 29, including on how governments and host parties choose to interact with 6.4 on credit authorisation and how national credit registries can interact with the 6.4 registry, al-Jishi said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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