Iran says retaliation to catch Israel off guard

Iran's pledged retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month will aim to catch Israel off guard, Iran's permanent mission to the UN said late on Tuesday.

"In all likelihood, Iran's response will come at a time, condition and in a way that will give the Zionist regime the least chance," the mission said. "Maybe when their eyes are on the skies and on the radar screen, they will be surprised on the ground. Maybe it will be a combination of the two."

Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital early on 31 July, a day after senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an airstrike in Beirut. The Israelis took responsibility for Shukr's killing but have yet to formally comment on whether they were involved in Haniyeh's death.

Iran and its proxies in the region, including Hezbollah and Hamas, blamed Israel for both deaths regardless and have repeatedly vowed to retaliate. "Iran's response should have two clear results," Iran's mission said. "First, it must punish the aggressor for the terrorism and violation of Iran's national sovereignty. And second, it should strengthen Iran's deterrence, and bring deep remorse to the regime to prevent any future aggression."

The fact that Iran has yet to follow through on its threat has prompted speculation that there may be internal disagreements about how best to respond or that Tehran may be waiting to see how the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire in Gaza play out before retaliating.

The latest round of ceasefire talks — mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar — took place in Doha on 15-16 August and more negotiations are scheduled in Cairo next week. Iran's mission to the UN made it clear that Tehran's response "should avoid a possible negative effect" on any ceasefire.

Analysts have been gauging how Iran's response might compare with a missile and drone attack that it launched against Israel in April. That attack, which was in retaliation for Israel's targeting of an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, was Iran's first ever direct assault on Israel from Iranian soil. Senior officials in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said at the time that it was part of "a new equation with Israel" that would see Tehran respond to any Israeli attack on its interests or citizens from Iranian territory.

IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini said on Tuesday that what comes next will not necessarily resemble previous attacks. "The Zionists should remain in a state of fear due to the wait, and the potential scale of the attack," Naeini said. "Iran's response may not be a repeat of past operations. The quality of the response, scenarios and [weapons] are not always the same."

As for when the retaliation would come, "time is on our side," Naeini said. "The wait for a response could take even longer" as Iran's military commanders "are not prone to hasty actions", he added.

Naeini underlined that there should be no doubt that Iran's retaliation will come. "In the past, no aggression against Iran's goals and interests have gone unanswered. So one should expect calculated and precise strikes at the appropriate time."

By Nader Itayim