Iran says retaliation to catch Israel off guard
Iran's pledged retaliation for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month will aim to catch Israel off guard, Iran's permanent mission to the UN said late on Tuesday.
"In all likelihood, Iran's response will come at a time, condition and in a way that will give the Zionist regime the least chance," the mission said. "Maybe when their eyes are on the skies and on the radar screen, they will be surprised on the ground. Maybe it will be a combination of the two."
Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital early on 31 July, a day after senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an airstrike in Beirut. The Israelis took responsibility for Shukr's killing but have yet to formally comment on whether they were involved in Haniyeh's death.
Iran and its proxies in the region, including Hezbollah and Hamas, blamed Israel for both deaths regardless and have repeatedly vowed to retaliate. "Iran's response should have two clear results," Iran's mission said. "First, it must punish the aggressor for the terrorism and violation of Iran's national sovereignty. And second, it should strengthen Iran's deterrence, and bring deep remorse to the regime to prevent any future aggression."
The fact that Iran has yet to follow through on its threat has prompted speculation that there may be internal disagreements about how best to respond or that Tehran may be waiting to see how the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire in Gaza play out before retaliating.
The latest round of ceasefire talks — mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar — took place in Doha on 15-16 August and more negotiations are scheduled in Cairo next week. Iran's mission to the UN made it clear that Tehran's response "should avoid a possible negative effect" on any ceasefire.
Analysts have been gauging how Iran's response might compare with a missile and drone attack that it launched against Israel in April. That attack, which was in retaliation for Israel's targeting of an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, was Iran's first ever direct assault on Israel from Iranian soil. Senior officials in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said at the time that it was part of "a new equation with Israel" that would see Tehran respond to any Israeli attack on its interests or citizens from Iranian territory.
IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naeini said on Tuesday that what comes next will not necessarily resemble previous attacks. "The Zionists should remain in a state of fear due to the wait, and the potential scale of the attack," Naeini said. "Iran's response may not be a repeat of past operations. The quality of the response, scenarios and [weapons] are not always the same."
As for when the retaliation would come, "time is on our side," Naeini said. "The wait for a response could take even longer" as Iran's military commanders "are not prone to hasty actions", he added.
Naeini underlined that there should be no doubt that Iran's retaliation will come. "In the past, no aggression against Iran's goals and interests have gone unanswered. So one should expect calculated and precise strikes at the appropriate time."
By Nader Itayim
Related news posts
Crew removed from tanker adrift in Red Sea
Crew removed from tanker adrift in Red Sea
London, 22 August (Argus) — The stricken Suezmax Sounion is adrift and unmanned after the crew was removed following further attacks in the Red Sea, including by an unmanned surface vehicle (USV). All crew members were rescued and are being transported to Djibouti, the nearest safe port of call, the EU naval mission EUNAVFOR Aspides said today. Vessel operator Delta Tankers said the master and crew had taken the decision to abandon ship. Sounion is carrying 150,000t of crude and represents a navigational and environmental hazard, EUNAVFOR said. The 2006-built tanker loaded Basrah Heavy crude on 11 August, and first came under attack yesterday, 21 August. Three projectiles were fired at the ship, causing it to lose engine power. It was targeted with missiles on five occasions during transit through the western Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea, maritime security firm Ambrey said. EUNAVFOR said it destroyed a USV that posed "an imminent threat" to Sounion on arrival at the scene. Earlier reports of Sounion being on fire may have been based on flames from the destruction of a USV, Ambrey said. The Greek-owned and operated Kamsarmax Tutor sank in June with a cargo of coal from Ust-Luga on board after being attacked by a USV. The 2009-built Supramax bulk carrier SW North Wind I also came under attack yesterday. UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 75 nautical miles south of Aden, Yemen. The vessel initially reported two explosions in the water in close to proximity and then a third explosion near the vessel. No damage was reported, and the SW North Wind I was proceeding to its next port of call, UKMTO said. SW North Wind I last reported its location nine days ago after heading past southern India with a cargo of steel loaded in South Korea on 24 July, data from Kpler show. Shipowner Eagle Bulk sold the Japanese-built Supramax, then called the Stellar Eagle , earlier this year prior to a merger with fellow bulker owner Star Bulk . By Matthew Mitchell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Work stoppage begins at Canadian railroads
Work stoppage begins at Canadian railroads
Washington, 22 August (Argus) — Operations at Canada's two largest railroads ended Thursday morning at 12:01am ET as a work stoppage began following the failure of labor contract talks. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) locked out union members, while the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) launched a strike at CPKC. The union has not yet issued a strike notice to CN , but its workers are barred from the property. The work stoppage freezes ongoing train shipments even if they have not reached their destinations. The railroads last week stopped loading railcars with shipments of certain toxic and poisonous materials to keep products from being abandoned in unsafe locations, and this week stopped loading all commodities and other freight within Canada. Operations along CN and CPKC's US lines continue but trains cannot cross into Canada. The union confirmed just after midnight that work stoppages at CN and CPKC had begun. Most Teamsters members stopped work at 12:01am ET, though rail traffic controllers at CPKC will keep working until 2:01am ET. CPKC and CN announced they had formally locked out employees represented by the Teamsters union. CN said the union did not respond to an offer it had made in a last attempt to avoid the strike. Wide range of commodities in crosshairs The work stoppage will affect freight deliveries for a variety of goods across North America, including shipments of propane to rural communities, grain and coal deliveries to Canadian export terminals, and chemical inputs to manufacturing facilities. CN said Wednesday that grain prices were already being affected and that sawmills in British Colombia were cutting shifts. Coal exports from Canadian mines would be held because those operations are only served by CN and CPKC. But western US coal exports are not expected to see much of a disruption since US carrier BNSF has rail lines going directly to Westshore Terminals near Vancouver. BNSF will not be able to interchange railcars with CN and CPKC in Canada, however. Crude markets are also not expected to see significant disruption from a strike in the short term because of pending maintenance at upstream oil sands facilities and spare pipeline capacity. Prices for Canadian propane and butane — which rely heavily on rail to move product from an oversupplied market to the US — fell Wednesday ahead of the strike. Wide gap between workers, railroads The railroads and the Teamsters remain far apart on contract terms. The union — which represents roughly 9,300 train operators and support staff at CN and CPKC and 85 rail traffic controllers at CPKC — said forced relocation and scheduling and fatigue management that will lead to safety risks are the key points of dispute. CN said its offers, which have been turned down repeatedly, would have improved safety, increased wages, and provided employees with better schedules. CPKC chief executive Keith Creel on 19 August claimed union leadership had made "wildly inaccurate characterizations" about the railroad's proposals in order to "create a false public narrative" about negotiations. He said the railroad did not unilaterally change or cancel the terms of the most recent collective agreement or make proposals that compromise safety. Creel said most recently CPKC has focused on a status quo-style contract renewal with a duration of three years. That proposal would have no work rule changes and the railroad only wanted to negotiate "reasonable adjustments" to the timing of held-away pay to address regulatory changes made by Transport Canada last year. CN called on Canadian minister of labour Steven MacKinnon to intervene this week. He has already been meeting with each railroad and the Teamsters. CPKC this week reiterated earlier calls for binding arbitration, but MacKinnon rejected that request on 15 August. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian rail labor talks continue as deadline nears
Canadian rail labor talks continue as deadline nears
Cheyenne, 21 August (Argus) — Canadian railroads and a major labor union are still in discussions in the final hours before workers could go on strike. Contract negotiations between Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), Canadian National (CN) and Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) continued today, CPKC said. If there is no agreement tonight, the union at 12:01am ET Thursday could begin a strike against CPKC and each railroad could begin a lockout of workers. The Teamsters did not issue a required strike notice to CN, but a lockout would still shut its network down. Railroad customers and Canadian authorities are increasingly frustrated by the lack of agreement on new labor contracts. Teamsters members have been working under the terms of contracts that expired in December 2023. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau today urged the railroads and union to resolve the situation and avert a strike. "It is in the best interest of both sides to continue doing the hard work at the table to find a negotiated resolution," Trudeau said. "Millions of Canadians, of workers, of farmers, of businesses, right across the country are counting on both sides to do the work and get to a resolution." Canadian minister of labour Steven MacKinnon yesterday said he met with Ontario's labour minister and would be meeting with each railroad and Teamsters officials in Montreal and Calgary "to deliver our shared message: Get a deal at the table. Workers, farmers, businesses and all Canadians are counting on it." Union members have voted twice to authorize a strike, and each railroad has indicated it will lock out union members at the same time. The latest indication is the strike could happen as early as Thursday 22 August. "CPKC remains focused on and committed to arriving at a negotiated outcome that is in the best interests of all our railroaders and their families," CPKC said today. "We are firmly committed to staying at the bargaining table to reach renewed agreements." The Teamsters and CN did not respond to requests for comment. Last week, the railroads initiated embargoes on shipments of toxic inhalation hazards (TIH) and poisonous inhalation hazards (PIH) materials. Those products include chlorine, ammonia, ethylene and phosgene, as well as rail security-sensitive materials such as explosives. Each carrier has now stopped loading trains in Canada and are focused on delivering existing shipments. Railroads also have stopped shipping trains across the US and Canada border, suspending the movement of multiple products. US rail regulators are actively monitoring the situation, concerned about how a rail labor strike in Canada would affect the US rail network and supply chain. The US Surface Transportation Board said Wednesday it is monitoring the implementation and effects of those embargoes on the network. A number of US railroads last week either implemented their own embargoes or said they will comply with the Canadian embargoes. Western US coal exports are not expected to have much of a disruption if there is a strike since US carrier BNSF has rail lines going directly to Westshore Terminals near Vancouver. But BNSF will not be able to interchange railcars with CN and CPKC in Canada. Crude markets are also not expected to see significant disruption from a strike in the short term because of pending maintenance at upstream oil sands facilities and spare pipeline capacity. Prices for Canadian propane and butane — which rely heavily on rail to move product from an oversupplied market to the US — fell Wednesday ahead of the strike . By Courtney Schlisserman and Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oil producers sell US gas at lowest prices in years
Oil producers sell US gas at lowest prices in years
New York, 21 August (Argus) — Large crude oil producers in the second quarter sold their US natural gas output at the lowest prices in years as gas pipelines out of the Permian basin ran full and the US gas market remained oversupplied. The historically discounted gas — mostly associated gas production — did little to dent the crude producers' profits, however, as crude sales represent a much larger share of their revenue and crude prices have remained strong. Nevertheless, crude-driven associated gas production comprises a significant share of total US gas output. Chevron, which reported 2.6 Bcf/d (74mn m³/d) of US gas output in the second quarter, posted average realized sales at 73¢/mmBtu, the lowest for the oil major since the first quarter of 2020, according to company filings. This was down from its year-earlier sales realized at $1.18/mmBtu and its full-year 2022 sales realized at $5.35/mmBtu. A little more than half of Chevron's second-quarter US production, on an oil equivalent basis, came out of the Permian basin of west Texas and eastern New Mexico, while a quarter came out of Colorado. ExxonMobil fared little better, with average sales realized at $1/mmBtu for its 2.9 Bcf/d of US gas in the second quarter, down from $1.40/mmBtu a year earlier and the lowest since at least 2002, as far back as Internet-accessible company filings reach. If it realized a more middling price of $3/mmBtu on its US gas output, its second-quarter revenue would have been $548mn higher than its actual revenue of $51.2bn. EOG Resources in the second quarter averaged realized sales at $1.51/mmBtu for its 1.7 Bcf/d of US gas output, while ConocoPhillips realized 31¢/mmBtu for its 1.6 Bcf/d of lower-48 US gas output. Diamondback Energy posted such a low average price realization for its 564mn cf/d of US gas in the second quarter — 10¢/mmBtu — that earlier this month it said it had curtailed some oil production just to bring down the amount of gas that was coming up the well alongside the oil. State and federal regulations hinder indiscriminate so-called "economic" flaring, forcing producers to sometimes pay buyers to take gas off their hands in the absence of available pipeline takeaway capacity. "Obviously, we need to start making more money on our gas in the Permian," Diamondback chief financial officer Kaes Van't Hof said. Fly in the oil well Still, large crude producers are not exactly hurting. Exxon reported a $9.2bn profit, up from $7.9bn a year earlier, while Chevron reported a $4.4bn profit, down from $6bn a year earlier. Diamondback's second-quarter profit of $837mn was also up from its year-earlier profit of $556mn. Those profits, on the back of solid crude prices in the latest quarter, were also partly thanks to booming oil production in the Permian basin, which as a side effect has flooded the region with associated gas. The pace of that gas growth has outpaced developers' efforts to expand local gas pipeline takeaway capacity, plunging spot prices there into negative territory . The Waha spot index in the second quarter averaged -58¢/mmBtu. This upside-down market is not likely to last, however, as the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn Express pipeline comes on line later this year to relieve takeaway constraints in the Permian. Argus forward curves show the September price of -48¢/mmBtu at Waha rising to 49¢/mmBtu in October, with the 2025-calendar strip there averaging $2.07/mmBtu — not so far below Tuesday's 2025 strip settlement at the US benchmark Henry Hub of $3.29/mmBtu. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
![](/_next/image?url=%2F-%2Fmedia%2Fproject%2Fargusmedia%2Fmainsite%2Fimages%2F14-generic-hero-banners%2Fherobanner_1600x530_generic-c.jpg%3Fh%3D530%26iar%3D0%26w%3D1600%26rev%3D-1%26hash%3DFC2BEDE406483FEF5FDB9549159BAC11&w=3840&q=75)
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more