BZ Credits near 5 year high after 2023 blending

Spanish Market: Biofuels, Oil products, Petrochemicals
12/09/24

Higher volumes of ethylbenzene (EB) into gasoline blending a year ago has led to a credit shortage, pushing prices to their highest levels since March 2021.

In 2022 and 2023, US Gulf coast (USGC) naphtha inventories were long as US naphtha exports declined from 400,000-500,000b/d pre-pandemic to 100,000-200,000b/d.

Over the same span of time, refiners and blenders dropped excess naphtha, a sub-octane blendstock, into the gasoline pool. This blend of gasoline spurred demand for high-octane blendstocks like EB, toluene and mixed xylenes into gasoline blending.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires gasoline with benzene content above a certain threshold to be offset by a credit generated by refining compliant gasoline.

The elevated blending of EB exhausted the supply of benzene credits on the open market, which bled into 2024. Credits traded near 100¢/USG early in 2024 and rose to as high as 190¢/USG over the summer. Values now span buyer interest at 160¢/USG and seller interest at 190¢/USG.

The compliance deadline for benzene credit submission is set for 31 March 2025, in which refiners must mass-balance their production over a given year and either face a credit surplus for being over-compliant or a shortage and therefore will need to procure credits on the open market.

By Jake Caldwell and Matthew Cope

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25/11/24

Chancay Port takes center stage at APLA

Sao Paulo, 25 November (Argus) — The new $3bn Chancay Port in Peru could disrupt polymers trade throughout Latin America, according to conversations at the 44th Latin American Petrochemical Association (APLA) conference last week in Cartagena, Colombia. Located 80km north of Lima, the Chinese-built port promises to reduce shipping times for Chinese products to the region by up to 20 days, thanks to its direct route across the Pacific Ocean. Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated the port in Peru on 14 November. The port was a focal point of discussions among producers and traders in Latin America, but especially for those in the west coast of South America (WCSA), the first region to be possibly affected by Chancay's operations. A polypropylene (PP) producer in Colombia told Argus that the news is not good for them as it would be easy and fast to ship Chinese PP from Chancay to Buenaventura, Colombia's most important seaport on the Pacific Ocean. The company said it is trying to figure out how to deal with the expected increase in resin imports from China. Several other regional resin producers and traders are closely monitoring the situation, trying to strategise their next moves. In the US, the largest polyethylene (PE) exporter to South America, Chancay has already been causing concerns for local producers and traders selling into the region, one source told Argus . The combination of more Chinese PE arriving on South American shores and local governments placing anti-dumping duties on US-produced, as is foreseen in Brazil in the short-term, should lower US sales for the whole region, the source added. Asian resin is already gaining market share in Peru. Currently, the country is the second largest PP importer in South America by volume, and its imports had a significant increase this year even before Chancay's inauguration. PP imports climbed 32pc from January to October, with 90pc more purchases from Asia-Pacific, whose market share expanded from 41pc to 58pc year on year. South American purchases fell 7pc to 57,800t in the same period. Concerns were also raised about the Chancay port being used to distribute Chinese resins to other regional markets, including Brazil and Argentina, via smaller containerships being sent through the Panama Canal. Chancay set to change routes The first phase of the Chancay Port project, which began in 2021, features four berths and a maximum depth of 17.8 meters, allowing it to accommodate ultra-large container ships with capacities of up to 18,000 twenty-foot containers (TEUs). With a projected throughput capacity of 1mn TEUs annually in the short term and 1.5mn TEUs in the long term, Chancay Port is set to significantly impact maritime routes from Asia to Latin America. Over 80pc of the project is already completed, including the main quay structures finished earlier this year. Once fully operational with its 15 docks, Chancay will be South America's first port capable of handling ships too large for the Panama Canal. Additionally, China plans to build a railway linking Chancay with Brazil, its largest Latin American trade partner, later in the decade. The ownership of Peru's Chancay Port is split between two major entities. Cosco Shipping Ports, a Chinese state-owned company, holds a 60pc stake in the port. The remaining 40pc is owned by Volcan Mining Company, a Peruvian firm. This collaboration is part of China's expansive Belt and Road Initiative. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Star Bulk expects smooth 2025 FuelEU compliance

25/11/24

Star Bulk expects smooth 2025 FuelEU compliance

New York, 25 November (Argus) — Greek ship owner Star Bulk said it expects to meet the 2025 FuelEU regulation without issue. Starting on 1 January 2025, the FuelEU regulation will require that vessel fleets travelling in EU territorial waters cap their lifecycle greenhouse gases (GHG) at 89.34 grams of CO2-equivalent per megajoule through 2029. The company plans to meet this regulation by burning B30 biofuel blends on some of its vessels. This will GHG credits for its remaining vessels that trade in and out of EU territorial waters. Star Bulk does not expect to have difficulty sourcing the B30, but warned that sourcing it could become a challenge from 2027 onward. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) should update its GHG emissions regulation for international shipping to include lifecycle emissions from the current emissions from combustion around mid-2027. The organization will require that vessels globally reduce their lifecycle GHG by at least 20pc by 2030 and by at least 70pc by 2040, compared with a 2008 baseline, and reach net-zero by 2050. This will require additional quantities of biofuel. Unlike the FuelEU regulation which applies to vessel fleets or pools travelling in EU waters, the IMO regulation will apply to individual vessels travelling in international waters. Star Bulk burned 832,371 of marine fuel in 2023, down 4pc compared with 2022. Of this quantity, 708,406t was high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), 36,598t very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and 87,367t marine gasoil. About 95pc of Star Bulk's vessel fleet is outfitted with marine exhaust scrubbers. The scrubbers allow its vessels to burn HSFO in international waters. Vessels that do not have scrubbers are required by the IMO to burn marine fuel with up to 0.5pc sulphur content maximum, such as VLSFO in international waters. Star Bulk's vessels emitted 2.6mn t of CO2 in 2023, down 4pc from 2022. The company is aiming to reduce its fleet's carbon intensity ratio by 12pc by 2026, from 2019 baseline year, consistent with the IMO's carbon intensity indicator targets. In 2023, Star Bulk achieved 4.32pc reduction relative to 2019. The reduction was largely due to improved vessel performance monitoring, hull cleaning, and optimization of weather and routing, the company said. As of the end of September, Star Bulk owned 155 vessels, chartered 10 vessels and had five newbuild vessels on order to be delivered in 2025 and 2026. In April, the company finalized its merger with Eagle Bulk Shipping . By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Escalation in Ukraine fuels German oil product demand

25/11/24

Escalation in Ukraine fuels German oil product demand

Hamburg, 25 November (Argus) — Consumers in Germany stocked up on middle distillates in the past week because of escalations in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Sales of heating oil and diesel in Germany ramped up rapidly on 21 November after Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into Ukraine. This reignited concerns among German traders and consumers about the possible effects on availability and pricing of oil products in Europe. Traded volumes of heating oil reported to Argus went up by 60pc day-on-day on 21 November, while diesel volumes more than doubled as traders and consumers sought to stock up, even as prices rose. Private heating oil tanks have held their levels throughout November having peaked at just above 62pc at the beginning of the month, two percentage points higher than last year's peak. Industrial diesel tanks dropped below 46pc on 10 November, the lowest in at least four years, although they have since begun to recover slightly. Diesel imports went up again in November even though imports are largely unprofitable because of high domestic refinery output and demand that is generally low. Low water levels on the Rhine river make imports by barge even less profitable. Barges that have to pass the Kaub bottleneck on their way to destinations along the Upper Rhine can only carry up to 80pc of capacity after water levels fell again at the weekend. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

22/11/24

Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

Developing countries' discontent over the climate finance offer is meeting a muted response, writes Caroline Varin Baku, 22 November (Argus) — As the UN Cop 29 climate conference went into overtime, early reactions of consternation towards a new climate finance draft quickly gave way to studious silence, and some new numbers floated by developing nations. Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal — or climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The updated draft of the new finance goal text — the centrepiece of this Cop — proposes a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". This is the developed country parties' submission, the Cop 29 presidency acknowledged. Developing nations have been waiting for this number for months, and calling on developed economies to come up with one throughout this summit. They rejected the offer instantly. "The [$250bn/yr] offered by developed countries is a spit in the face of vulnerable nations like mine," Panama's lead climate negotiator, Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, said. Negotiating group the Alliance of Small Island States called it "a cap that will severely stagnate climate action efforts". The African Group of Negotiators and Colombia called it "unacceptable". This is far off the mark for developing economies, which earlier this week floated numbers of $440bn-600bn/yr for a public finance layer. They also called for $1.3 trillion/yr in total climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. China reiterated on 21 November that "the voluntary support" of the global south was not to be counted towards the goal. A UN-mandated expert group indicated that the figure put forward by developed countries "is too low" and not consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. The new finance goal for developing countries, based on components that it covers, should commit developed countries to provide at least $300bn/yr by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035, it said. Brazil indicated that it is now pushing for these targets. The final amount for the new finance goal could potentially be around $300bn-350bn/yr, a Somalian delegate told Argus . A goal of $300bn/yr by 2035 is achievable with projected finance, further reforms and shareholder support at multilateral development banks (MDBs), and some growth in bilateral funding, climate think-tank WRI's finance programme director, Melanie Robinson, said. "Going beyond [$300bn/yr] would even be possible if a high proportion of developing countries' share of MDB finance is included," she added. All eyes turn to the EU Unsurprisingly, developed nations offered more muted responses. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior goal [of $100bn/yr]," a senior US official said, and the new goal will require even more ambition and "extraordinary reach". The US has just achieved its target to provide $11bn/yr in climate finance under the Paris climate agreement by 2024. But US climate funding is likely to dry up once president-elect Donald Trump, a climate sceptic who withdrew the US from the Paris accord during his first term, takes office. Norway simply told Argus that the delegation was "happier" with the text. The EU has stayed silent, with all eyes on the bloc as the US' influence wanes. The EU contributed €28.6bn ($29.8bn) in climate finance from public budgets in 2023. Developed nations expressed frustration towards the lack of progress on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Mentions of fossil fuels have been removed from new draft texts, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels. This could still represent a potential red line for them. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Brazil eyes $300bn/yr for climate finance goal

22/11/24

Cop: Brazil eyes $300bn/yr for climate finance goal

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — Brazil has set out a suggestion of "at least" $300bn/yr in climate finance to be provided by developed countries to developing nations. Brazilian representatives set out their proposal today, in response to a draft text on a new climate finance goal. Brazil's proposal of $300bn/yr in climate finance by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035 are in line with the recommendations of a UN-mandated expert group. Negotiations at Cop are continuing late into the evening of the official last day of the conference, with no final texts in sight. Discussions centre around the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — the climate financing that will be made available to developing countries in the coming years to help them reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. The presidency draft text released this morning put the figure at $250bn/yr by 2035, with a call for "all actors" to work towards a stretch goal of $1.3tn/yr. Representatives of developing countries have reacted angrily to the figure put forward in the text, saying it is far too low. Brazil's proposal appears to call for all of the $300bn-$390bn to be made up of direct public financing, which could then mobilise further funding to reach the $1.3tn/yr. It was inspired by the findings of a UN report, Brazil said. The UN-backed independent high-level group on climate finance today said that the $250bn/yr figure was "too low," and recommended the higher $300bn-390bn/yr goal. Brazil's ask would be a significant step up in the required public financing. The $250bn/yr target includes direct public financing and mobilised private financing, and potentially includes contributions from both developed and developing countries. Wealthier developing countries have been hesitant to see their climate financing fall in this category, which they say should be made up exclusively of developed country money, in line with the Paris Agreement. But $300bn/yr would represent an increase in ambition, Brazil said, while the $250bn/yr called for in the draft text would be very similar to the $100bn/yr goal set in 2009, after taking into account inflation. Delegates at Cop look set to continue discussions into the night. A plenary session planned for late in the evening, which would have allowed parties to express their positions in public, has been cancelled, suggesting groups still have differences to hammer out. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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