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Iran launches missile attack on Israel: Update

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil
  • 01/10/24

Iran has launched a missile attack against Israel for the first time in six months, after Israeli forces began a ground invasion of Lebanon.

The Israeli military via its social media accounts said at 17:36GMT today that "all Israeli civilians are in bomb shelters as rockets from Iran are fired at Israel." This marks the second direct attack on Israel from Iran this year.

The US had forewarning of the Iranian attack, which it shared with Israel. US president Joe Biden and vice president Kamala Harris met with their national security team "to discuss Iranian plans to imminently launch a significant ballistic missile attack against Israel," the White House said.

The Middle East region has been braced for Iran to retaliate since the leader of Palestinian group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in July. Tensions have grown in recent weeks after Israel stepped up attacks against Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, culminating in the killing of the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on 27 September.

Israel's military today began ground operations in southern Lebanon.


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01/10/24

Canadian crude flows to US midcontinent intact post-TMX

Canadian crude flows to US midcontinent intact post-TMX

Calgary, 1 October (Argus) — Refiners in the US midcontinent continue to get ample supply of Canadian crude, even after the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) opened up an alternative outlet for oil sands producers. An average 2.9mn b/d of Canadian crude flowed into the US midcontinent in July, marking the highest ever rate for the same month in data going back to 1993, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week. This is up by about 140,000 b/d compared to the prior five-year average for July. Canada's TMX pipeline went into service on 1 May, but volumes were already being drawn westward in April with the new line requiring roughly 4.4mn bl of linefill. The Trans Mountain system, now at a capacity of 890,000 b/d, opened a new frontier for oil sands operators as they target Pacific Rim markets via the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, British Columbia. That prospect suggested refiners in the US midcontinent and Gulf coast — that have healthy diets of cheap Canadian crude — may be challenged in supplying their units. But repeated delays in TMX's construction meant upstream production had time to grow higher by the time the line finally went into service. Competing Enbridge provides the largest service to the US midcontinent and beyond with its 3.1mn b/d Mainline system, which the company says was still oversubscribed in the second quarter and the continued demand to ship crude south and east has Enbridge considering yet another expansion that could be in place by late 2026. Flows into the US Gulf coast slipped to 512,000 b/d in July, down by 66,000 b/d compared to the prior five-year average for the same month. This still represents a nine-month high for the region and comparable to the 517,000 b/d in July 2023 and a signal that Canadian flows are largely intact since TMX was commissioned. Trans Mountain said in September it moved 704,000 b/d in June, the latest official figure, with slightly more than half of that sent through the Westridge Marine Terminal for export. The US west coast is among the destinations benefitting from the added Canadian supply, taking a record 498,000 b/d in July. This is double the typical volume for this time of year as it has displaced other foreign crudes and disrupted trade flows in the Pacific. All told, the US imported 4.37mn b/d of Canadian crude in July, also a new record after surpassing the previous high of 4.35mn b/d set in November last year. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran launches missile attack on Israel: Update 1


01/10/24
01/10/24

Iran launches missile attack on Israel: Update 1

Updates with intraday crude prices rising. London, 1 October (Argus) — Iran has launched a missile attack against Israel for the first time in six months, after Israeli forces began a ground invasion of Lebanon. The Israeli military via its social media accounts said at 16:36GMT today that "all Israeli civilians are in bomb shelters as rockets from Iran are fired at Israel." This marks the second direct attack on Israel from Iran this year. The US had forewarning of the Iranian attack, which it shared with Israel. US president Joe Biden and vice president Kamala Harris met with their national security team "to discuss Iranian plans to imminently launch a significant ballistic missile attack against Israel," the White House said. Crude futures prices were trading down earlier in the day before climbing on reports that Washington warned of an imminent attack. Brent was up more than 5pc as of 1:20pm ET at $75.39/bl while WTI futures were up by more than 5pc at $71.81/bl. The Middle East region has been braced for Iran to retaliate since the leader of Palestinian group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in July. Tensions have grown in recent weeks after Israel stepped up attacks against Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, culminating in the killing of the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on 27 September. Israel's military today began ground operations in southern Lebanon. By James Keates and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Some eastern US rail shipments restart after Helene


30/09/24
30/09/24

Some eastern US rail shipments restart after Helene

Washington, 30 September (Argus) — Some railroad operations in the southeastern US have resumed in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, but major carriers warn that some freight may be delayed while storm-damaged tracks are repaired. Rail lines in multiple states were damaged after Hurricane Helene made landfall on the northeastern Florida coast on 26 September as a category 4 storm and traveled northwards as a downgraded but still dangerous storm into Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas. The storm left significant rain and wind damage in its wake, including washed-away roads, flooded lines, downed trees and power outages. Eastern railroads CSX and Norfolk Southern (NS) said they are working around the clock to restore service to their networks. Norfolk Southern said it had made "significant progress" towards its recovery with most major routes back in service including its Chattanooga, Tennessee, to Jacksonville, Florida, line as well as its Birmingham, Alabama, to Charlotte, North Carolina route. Norfolk Southern said freight moving through areas that are out of service could "see delays of 72 hours". Several of Norfolk Southern's other routes remain out of service, including rail lines east and west of Asheville, North Carolina, because of historic levels of flooding. There are multiple trees to remove along a 70-mile stretch from Macon, Georgia, to Brunswick, Georgia. And downed power lines are keeping the railroad's lines from Augusta, Georgia, to Columbia, South Carolina, and Millen, Georgia, out of service. CSX said "potential delays remain" but did not provide specifics. However, the railroad said it had made "substantial progress" in clearing and repairing its network. The railroad's operations in Florida have mostly reopened, as have rail lines in its Charleston subdivision, which crosses South Carolina and Georgia. But bridge damage and major flooding has kept CSX's Blue Ridge subdivision out of service. A portion of the line running from Erwin, Tennessee, to Spartanburg, South Carolina, has been cleared, but CSX said "a long-term outage" is expected for other parts of the rail line. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Greek Corinth crude arrival momentum slows after fire


30/09/24
30/09/24

Greek Corinth crude arrival momentum slows after fire

Barcelona, 30 September (Argus) — Crude receipts at Greek refiner Motor Oil Hellas' (MOH) 180,000 b/d Corinth facility fell in September and arrival momentum has slowed, following a serious fire. Corinth imported 170,000 b/d in September, down from 185,000 b/d in August. The refinery received seven cargoes in the month, but only two were unloaded after the 17 September fire . One cargo of Caspian CPC Blend diverted to BP's 108,000 b/d Castellon refinery in Spain. The fire has damaged crude distillation (CDU) capacity at the refinery, but MOH has not replied to requests for details. The two crude cargoes that unloaded following the fire were staple grade Iraqi Basrah Medium, as are a pair signalling arrival. Both of these departed Basrah prior to the fire. One should arrive on 2 October, and the other is travelling via the Cape of Good Hope and is not slated to arrive until 13 October. No other deliveries are signalling arrival. Around 75pc of the crudes at Corinth are Basrah grades. MOH has previously said it has flexibility in its term contract with Iraq's state-owned Somo and can tailor the pace of deliveries to its needs. Earlier this year MOH said it wanted to buy more Basrah crude from trading firms, but the majority of its cargoes still come direct from Somo, according to Kpler data. This includes the two now on route to Corinth. MOH regularly blends Basrah with CPC Blend and Libyan Es Sider, plus occasional cargoes of Kazakh Kebco and Norwegian Johan Sverdrup. Prior to the fire MOH bought a cargo of Guyanese Unity Gold for the first time . MOH had major works in the summer of 2023 on the older and larger of its two CDUs. On completion deputy managing director Petros Tzannetakis said the refinery would run in excess of 200,000 b/d . Receipts are estimated by Argus at 200,000 b/d in the first three quarters of this year (see chart) . Receipts in September comprised 85,000 b/d of Basrah Medium, 35,000 b/d of Libyan crude split between Es Sider and Sarir, more than 25,000 b/d of Unity Gold and more than 20,000 b/d of CPC Blend. Argus assessed these at a weighted average gravity of 32.3°API and 1.7pc sulphur content, compared with 31.1°API and 2.5pc sulphur in August. The slate averaged 32.1°API and 2pc sulphur in the first nine months of the year, a little lighter and sweeter than 30.3°API and 2.5pc sulphur overall last year. By Adam Porter Corinth crude deliveries mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada to push for more climate cash as oil sands grow


30/09/24
30/09/24

Canada to push for more climate cash as oil sands grow

Calgary, 30 September (Argus) — Canada plans to advocate for more cash and accountability at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, but its record-high oil production and the threat of a general election might complicate its own climate ambitions. The resource-rich country will be pushing for greater financial commitments from Cop countries in November as they look to replace the current, but broadly recognised as inadequate, $100bn/yr target with a new finance goal for developing countries. Canada, like all developed countries, would not say how much it is willing to commit itself. But it favours broadening the goal's contributor base. "Public finance from a relatively small group of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet current needs," federal agency Environment and Climate Change Canada (EEEC) told Argus . The new goal will require "honest reflection". The country in negotiations mentioned the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and fossil fuel sector public financing as a mean to increase investments in energy transition sectors, but other key oil-producing countries disagree. Canada's government says it remains focused on the oil and gas industry and expects to see progress on Cop 28's commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. It became the first G20 country to release a framework targeting "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies last year, accelerating a 2009 commitment to phase out support for its largest source of emissions. This has not stopped investment in Alberta's oil sands from growing, but the federal government is looking to steer more cash towards clean initiatives such as clean hydrogen, clean electricity and carbon capture. The latter could represent a big business for Alberta's producers if subsidised generously. But it could also be a licence to push Canada's crude production beyond its 4.9mn b/d record set last year. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canada's oil and gas sector accounted for 33pc, or 217mn t, of the country's total in 2022, according to the National Inventory Report. Cutting them is critical to meet an overall goal of 403mn-439mn t by 2030, but the Office of the Auditor General of Canada says the country is only on track to lower them to 470mn t by that date. Domestic politics And Canada's climate ambitions might be at risk, with the Liberal minority government facing a general election no later than October 2025. Prime minister Justin Trudeau's popularity has dropped to the benefit of Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau has resisted calls from within his party to step down, while Conservatives prepare for what they call a "carbon tax election". They want to axe the federal carbon tax, tanker bans and regulatory burdens. They promote pipelines and energy independence using a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels, as part of a "gradual transition" to a low-carbon future, and say "the provinces should be free to develop their own climate change policies". Canada's 10 provinces hold jurisdiction over natural resources and that has posed a serious dilemma for the Liberals as they make climate promises on the international stage. Leading oil province Alberta will be sending a delegation to Cop to promote its own emissions-reduction strategies, and counter those of federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault, as the provincial government slams Ottawa's "punitive regulations" and says its climate policies are unrealistic. Trudeau's pursuit of winding down the oil sands was already tricky considering a state-owned pipeline is effectively subsidising the industry by C$8.7bn ($6.45bn), according to non-profit International Institute for Sustainable Development. Export capacity to the Pacific coast tripled to 890,000 b/d when the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion opened this year, underpinning growth plans for Canadian oil. By Brett Holmes Canada GHG emissions by sector Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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