Middle East intrudes in US election campaign

Spanish Market: Crude oil
01/10/24

The escalating confrontation in the Middle East as Israel exchanges blows with Iran and Iran-backed militias provides a rare foreign policy interlude in the US presidential campaign that remains too close to call.

"The US is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel," President Joe Biden told reporters today after US and Israeli military forces appeared to have successfully averted serious damage from a direct Iranian missile attack on Israel.

"The attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective, and this is testament to Israeli military capability and also a testament to intensive planning [between] the US and Israel to anticipate and defend against a brazen attack," Biden said.

The Democratic candidate for president, vice president Kamala Harris, joined Biden at the White House situation room to monitor the Iranian missile attack and the US response to it, the White House said.

The Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump, ahead of the expected attack accused Biden and Harris of acting insufficiently tough against Iran.

"The World is on fire and spiraling out of control," Trump said via social media before it became apparent that the Iranian missile attack failed. "We have no leadership, no one running the Country. We have a non-existent President in Joe Biden, and a completely absent Vice President, Kamala Harris, who is too busy fundraising in San Francisco."

Harris has been in Washington since Monday, in part to attend briefings by federal officials about the ongoing response to the damage caused in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina by the remnants of Hurricane Helene.

Trump in campaign appearances over the weekend accused Biden and Harris of inaction during Hurricane Helene and said he would personally lead relief efforts in Georgia even though federal emergency officials have been providing support to the victims of flooding and heavy rains that have caused significant damage. Biden and Harris plan to separately visit the affected areas later this week.

The Middle East region has been braced for Iran to attack Israel since the leader of Palestinian group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in July. Tensions have grown in recent weeks after Israel stepped up attacks against Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, culminating in the killing of the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on 27 September.

The previous Iranian missile attack on Israel, in April, led to a restrained Israeli retaliation on targets inside Iran, with the US, China and other regional powers intervening to prevent a further escalation.

WTI crude futures closed today's session up by more than 2pc on news of the Iranian attack and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Futures retraced some of the gains made earlier in the trading session after it became apparent that the Iranian attack failed to cause significant damage.

Biden told reporters today that he has yet to recommend a specific course of action for Israel following today's Iranian missile attack.

"We are having that discussion right now" with the Israeli government, Biden said, adding that it "remains to be seen" how Israel would respond.

The Iran-Israel confrontation is likely to feature at a televised debate later tonight between Trump's vice-presidential nominee, senator JD Vance, and Harris' running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz.

The Vance-Walz encounter is the last scheduled debate of the election season. Harris suggested another televised debate with Trump after holding one in September, but Trump has declined the offer.

Polls indicate that the presidential race is too close to accurately forecast. Harris has held a steady, small lead in nationwide polling since becoming the Democratic nominee in July but the outcome of the election will be determined in the Electoral College, with seven states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — likely to determine the overall result.

By Haik Gugarats

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27/03/25

Several countries have met fossil finance pledge: CSO

London, 27 March (Argus) — Two-thirds of "high-income" signatories that pledged to end public finance for international fossil fuels have policies in place that realise their commitment, civil society organisation (CSO) Oil Change International said today. Of the 17 "high-income" signatories, 11 are compliant, Oil Change found. They total ten developed countries — Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK — as well as EU development institution the European Investment Bank (EIB). The policy details vary, "but all put a complete halt to investments in new oil and gas extraction and LNG infrastructure", Oil Change said. The pledge referred to — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — was launched at the UN Cop 21 climate summit in 2021. It aims to shift international public finance "from the unabated fossil fuel energy sector to the clean energy transition". Signatories commit to ending new direct public support for overseas unabated fossil fuel projects within a year of joining. Other countries have updated policy to restrict fossil fuel financing abroad, but Oil Change has deemed them not in line with the pledge made. Belgium's policy "breaches the end-of-2022 deadline, allowing support for projects that have received promise of insurance by July 2022 into 2023", Oil Change said. The Netherlands allows some projects that requested support in 2022 to be approved in 2023, while there are "energy security exemptions and exemptions for some continued support in low-income countries", Oil Change said. The CSO assessed Germany's policy as containing a number of "major loopholes", including not ruling out public finance for gas infrastructure and gas-fired power plants. And it noted that Italy's policy for its export credit agency "allows fossil fuel finance to continue virtually unhindered". Germany has provided $1.5bn across 11 projects since the 2022 deadline passed, while Italy approved nearly $1.1bn for four projects in 2023, Oil Change said. Oil Change classed Switzerland's policy as "severely misaligned", while Portugal has not submitted a policy and the US has withdrawn from the agreement. The US provided $3.7bn for 12 international fossil fuel projects between end-2022 and end-2024, while it approved $4.7bn for the Mozambique LNG project after leaving the CETP. The CETP now has 40 signatories including five development banks and 35 countries. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

26/03/25

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

Adds details throughout Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose a 25pc tariff on foreign-made cars and trucks imported into the US, but said there will be no tariffs on automobiles assembled in the US. Trump said the new tariffs on imported automobiles marked the "beginning of Liberation Day", the term Trump has used to reference his plan to unveil sweeping tariffs on major foreign trade partners on 2 April. The White House estimates the tariff on imported cars and trucks will generate $100bn/yr in new tariff revenue. Trump said the auto tariff will go into effect on 2 April, providing a financial incentive for automakers to relocate manufacturing to the US. "We'll effectively be charging a 25pc tariff, but if you build your car in the United States, there's no tariff," Trump said in remarks at the White House. "And what that means is a lot of foreign car companies, a lot of companies, are going to be in great shape." The auto tariffs will likely add thousands of dollars to the price of many imported cars and trucks. But the tariffs — the details of which have yet to be released — appears more targeted than Trump's initial plan to impose a 25pc tariff on nearly all imports from Canada and Mexico, because the tariffs would not apply to cars and trucks parts, so long as the vehicles are assembled in the US. "Anybody that has plants in the United States it's going to be good for, in my opinion," Trump said. Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that Trump's plan to impose a nearly across-the-board import tariff could have caused auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Trump eventually delayed those tariffs until 2 April. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to impose new tariffs on auto imports

26/03/25

Trump to impose new tariffs on auto imports

Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump will announce new tariffs on the automobile industry later today, the White House said, at a time of significant uncertainty about his trade policies. Trump plans to offer further details on the automobile tariffs this afternoon, less than a week before he plans to announce tariffs against major foreign trade partners on 2 April, which Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day". Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Trump last month threatened to impose 25pc tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, starting on 4 March — including imported automobiles and vehicle parts — but he eventually offered a one-month reprieve for US automakers before delaying those tariffs entirely until 2 April. The scope and timing of the upcoming automobile tariffs remains unclear, and the White House has yet to provide further details. But Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that steep tariffs on Canada could cause auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's recent decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. "This is the beginning of a lot of things happening," Trump said. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

26/03/25

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

Sao Paulo, 26 March (Argus) — Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial on charges of an attempted coup following his 2022 electoral defeat, the supreme court (STF) ruled today. In February Brazil's prosecutor-general charged Bolsonaro and seven other people — which include some of his former ministers — of plotting to guarantee that the former president stayed in power despite losing the election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital of Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents , the prosecutor-general said. STF's five-judge panel voted unanimously to put Bolsonaro on trial, with top judge Alexandre de Moraes saying that the 8 January insurrection was a result of "systematic efforts" by Bolsonaro and his aides to discredit the election he lost. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 40 years in jail. He is charged with five crimes, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempted coup and threatening to harm "the Union's assets." Although it is not clear when court proceedings will begin, they are expected this year, which is unusually fast for Brazil's justice system. "They are in a hurry, big hurry," Bolsonaro said of the legal proceedings on social media platform X, adding that the case is moving "10 times faster" than Lula's proceeding when he was on trial for the anti-corruption Car Wash investigation. Lula was eventually found guilty of money laundering and corruption and jailed in April 2018, but was later acquitted and freed in November 2019. Bolsonaro also added that the trial is politically motivated. "The court is trying to prevent me from being tried in 2026, because they want to stop me from running in the elections," he added. Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026. The electoral court voted in June 2023 to make Bolsonaro ineligible to run for any public office until 2030. But he is still seen as a major political force in the country. It is unclear who will serve as Bolsonaro's successor for more conservative voters, although Sao Paulo state's governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the most likely candidate. Bolsonaro — who sat in the president's seat from 2019-2022 — also faces several other legal challenges to his conduct as president, including allegations of money laundering, criminal association and embezzlement for allegedly receiving jewelry as gifts from Saudi Arabia related to the sale of state-controlled Petrobras' 330,000 b/d Landulpho Alves refinery in northeastern Bahia state to the UAE's Mubadala Capital. But none of these allegations have moved forward in the judiciary. During his administration, Bolsonaro privatized several state-owned energy assets and put little priority on environmental protections, policies that Lula has since reversed. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Port Harcourt included in Bonny crude loading plans

26/03/25

Port Harcourt included in Bonny crude loading plans

London, 26 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery has been allocated three cargoes of domestic light sweet crude Bonny Light in April-May, according to traders, suggesting that any issues affecting receipts in February and March might have been resolved. The refinery — which restarted operations late last year following a revamp — has been allocated a 950,000 bl cargo loading over 5-6 April and two 475,000 bl shipments loading over 22-23 April and 1-2 May, traders said, citing the latest loading programmes. All three cargoes are to be loaded by the refinery's operator, state-owned NNPC. Market sources said last month that Port Harcourt's February and March crude allocations had been cancelled , with one of the sources saying a crude unit at the refinery was not functioning. This was not confirmed by NNPC. And a source at the company has since told Argus that a 475,000 bl shipment of Bonny Light had been due to be pumped to Port Harcourt before operations at the grade's export terminal were briefly disrupted by a fire on the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP) last week. The Renaissance Africa consortium — which recently took over operatorship of the TNP and the Bonny terminal from Shell — said pipeline flows were restored on 19 March. Port Harcourt — which is designed to run Bonny Light — was originally built as two refineries, and rehabilitation work has only been completed at one 60,000 b/d section. Total loadings of Bonny Light have been revised to 209,000 b/d for April across seven cargoes and have been set at 202,000 b/d for May across the same number of cargoes. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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