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Middle East intrudes in US election campaign

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 01/10/24

The escalating confrontation in the Middle East as Israel exchanges blows with Iran and Iran-backed militias provides a rare foreign policy interlude in the US presidential campaign that remains too close to call.

"The US is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel," President Joe Biden told reporters today after US and Israeli military forces appeared to have successfully averted serious damage from a direct Iranian missile attack on Israel.

"The attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective, and this is testament to Israeli military capability and also a testament to intensive planning [between] the US and Israel to anticipate and defend against a brazen attack," Biden said.

The Democratic candidate for president, vice president Kamala Harris, joined Biden at the White House situation room to monitor the Iranian missile attack and the US response to it, the White House said.

The Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump, ahead of the expected attack accused Biden and Harris of acting insufficiently tough against Iran.

"The World is on fire and spiraling out of control," Trump said via social media before it became apparent that the Iranian missile attack failed. "We have no leadership, no one running the Country. We have a non-existent President in Joe Biden, and a completely absent Vice President, Kamala Harris, who is too busy fundraising in San Francisco."

Harris has been in Washington since Monday, in part to attend briefings by federal officials about the ongoing response to the damage caused in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina by the remnants of Hurricane Helene.

Trump in campaign appearances over the weekend accused Biden and Harris of inaction during Hurricane Helene and said he would personally lead relief efforts in Georgia even though federal emergency officials have been providing support to the victims of flooding and heavy rains that have caused significant damage. Biden and Harris plan to separately visit the affected areas later this week.

The Middle East region has been braced for Iran to attack Israel since the leader of Palestinian group Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran in July. Tensions have grown in recent weeks after Israel stepped up attacks against Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, culminating in the killing of the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on 27 September.

The previous Iranian missile attack on Israel, in April, led to a restrained Israeli retaliation on targets inside Iran, with the US, China and other regional powers intervening to prevent a further escalation.

WTI crude futures closed today's session up by more than 2pc on news of the Iranian attack and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Futures retraced some of the gains made earlier in the trading session after it became apparent that the Iranian attack failed to cause significant damage.

Biden told reporters today that he has yet to recommend a specific course of action for Israel following today's Iranian missile attack.

"We are having that discussion right now" with the Israeli government, Biden said, adding that it "remains to be seen" how Israel would respond.

The Iran-Israel confrontation is likely to feature at a televised debate later tonight between Trump's vice-presidential nominee, senator JD Vance, and Harris' running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz.

The Vance-Walz encounter is the last scheduled debate of the election season. Harris suggested another televised debate with Trump after holding one in September, but Trump has declined the offer.

Polls indicate that the presidential race is too close to accurately forecast. Harris has held a steady, small lead in nationwide polling since becoming the Democratic nominee in July but the outcome of the election will be determined in the Electoral College, with seven states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — likely to determine the overall result.


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26/03/25

Port Harcourt included in Bonny crude loading plans

Port Harcourt included in Bonny crude loading plans

London, 26 March (Argus) — Nigeria's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery has been allocated three cargoes of domestic light sweet crude Bonny Light in April-May, according to traders, suggesting that any issues affecting receipts in February and March might have been resolved. The refinery — which restarted operations late last year following a revamp — has been allocated a 950,000 bl cargo loading over 5-6 April and two 475,000 bl shipments loading over 22-23 April and 1-2 May, traders said, citing the latest loading programmes. All three cargoes are to be loaded by the refinery's operator, state-owned NNPC. Market sources said last month that Port Harcourt's February and March crude allocations had been cancelled , with one of the sources saying a crude unit at the refinery was not functioning. This was not confirmed by NNPC. And a source at the company has since told Argus that a 475,000 bl shipment of Bonny Light had been due to be pumped to Port Harcourt before operations at the grade's export terminal were briefly disrupted by a fire on the Trans Niger Pipeline (TNP) last week. The Renaissance Africa consortium — which recently took over operatorship of the TNP and the Bonny terminal from Shell — said pipeline flows were restored on 19 March. Port Harcourt — which is designed to run Bonny Light — was originally built as two refineries, and rehabilitation work has only been completed at one 60,000 b/d section. Total loadings of Bonny Light have been revised to 209,000 b/d for April across seven cargoes and have been set at 202,000 b/d for May across the same number of cargoes. By Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Energy security is the "big opportunity holistically" of US secretary of state Marco Rubio's planned visit this week to Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname, US special envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said. The island nations that are net importers of crude and other energy products have a chance to "turn the page" to improve energy security and reduce prices, the envoy said today in a state department briefing to press. The trip comes after the US said this week it would impose a 25pc discretionary tariff on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan crude. Several nations in the past received crude from their South American neighbor through its PetroCaribe aid program which is largely defunct, other than shipments to Cuba. Trinidad has also sought to develop cross-border natural gas fields with Venezuela to boost its flagging production, but the US announcement further complicates this plan. "Along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we're deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energize ... those natural gas opportunities," Claver-Carone said. Booming oil producer Guyana in turn has faced a border dispute with Venezuela, and the US hopes to discuss "binding security cooperation" to solve this problem during Rubio's visit. Along with Guyana's neighbor Suriname, which hopes to launch offshore crude production by 2028, the outlook for the region to increase energy production could end its "huge Achilles' heel to its economic development and security," Claver-Carone added. Rubio will also discuss security, including improving conditions in Haiti, illegal migration and arms and drug trafficking during his visits on Wednesday and Thursday. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dangote to hit full operating capacity in Apr: Source


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Dangote to hit full operating capacity in Apr: Source

London, 25 March (Argus) — Nigeria's independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery is commissioning its alkylation unit, which will enable it to run its crude distillation unit (CDU) at operating capacity "some time next month", according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The source said CDU capacity is 550,000 b/d currently, although vessel tracking data suggest it is running some way below that. Crude arrivals at the refinery to date in March have fallen to between 175,000-235,000 b/d, according to preliminary data from vessel trackers Kpler and Vortexa, from 405,000 b/d in February . Throughput hit a high of 433,000 b/d in December, according to Kpler. The alkylation line, which produces high octane alkylate for gasoline blending, is the last of Dangote's secondary units to come online. Argus Consulting puts it at a nameplate capacity of 27,000 b/d. Other secondary units could be utilised at their maximum capacity once the alkylation unit is up and running, which would give a boost to gasoline blending component production. Recent lower runs at Dangote could suggest decreased output of gasoline — a key product in the local refined product market. Nigerian gasoline and blending component imports are around 345,000t to date this month, up from 245,000t in all of February. Gasoline imports in the wider west African market will be around 450,000t in April, a European gasoline trader told Argus this week. Nigeria accounts for around three quarters of the region's imports. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria expands crude supply with medium sweet Obodo


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Nigeria expands crude supply with medium sweet Obodo

London, 25 March (Argus) — A new Nigerian crude grade, medium sweet Obodo, will hit the market in April, according to sources familiar with the matter, as the west African country steadily adds to its crude offering. Obodo has a gravity of 27.65°API and a sulphur content of 0.05pc, according to an assay seen by Argus . A source said the grade is likely to be priced in line with Nigerian medium sweet Bonga. Details on production levels were not immediately available. Nigerian independent Continental Oil & Gas will produce Obodo from onshore oil block OML 150 in the Niger delta region, and state-owned NNPC will market the crude, according to two sources. NUPRC data shows Continental Oil has a stake in OML 150 under a production sharing contract — typically between the government and a private company. The newest Nigerian crude will add to a growing supply of medium sweet grades in the country. NNPC restarted production of similar-quality Utapate in 2024, which followed the launch of Nembe in 2023. Nigerian medium sweets, including Forcados, Escravos and Bonga, have predominantly found an outlet in Europe — the largest market for Nigerian crude. Obodo could also find favour with European refineries, where seasonal maintenance is scheduled to wind down by the end of April and early May. Nigerian grades have faced tepid demand in the April-trade cycle as ample availability of lower-priced alternatives such as US WTI, Caspian CPC Blend and other Mediterranean grades enticed European buyers. The trade cycle has since shifted to May, with as many as 15 April-loading Nigerian cargoes still looking for buyers, according to market participants. Nigeria's upstream regulator NUPRC in March outlined a plan to add 1.07mn b/d to the country's liquids output by December 2026. The plan forecasts an injection of capital into Nigerian oil blocks through joint ventures, production-sharing contracts and sole risk contracts. Nigeria has struggled to mobilise upstream investment and has consistently fallen short of less ambitious production growth targets in recent years. The country's crude production fell by 4.5pc on the month to 1.47mn b/d in February, according to NUPRC — just under its Opec+ quota of 1.5mn b/d. By Sanjana Shivdas and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Red Sea diversions resume, but few vessels affected


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

Red Sea diversions resume, but few vessels affected

London, 24 March (Argus) — Some shipping is avoiding the Red Sea again after Yemen-based Houthi forces ended a brief ceasefire, but few returned to the route in the first place. Already one clean products tanker that loaded gasoil in the Mideast Gulf in the second week of March has diverted away from the Red Sea route, vessel tracking data show. The Sti Guard, which loaded 530,000 bl of gasoil from Qatar's Ras Laffan plant on 10 March, rerouted on 14-15 March to avoid the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb strait. The ship is now taking the longer voyage around South Africa to discharge in northwest Europe in the second half of April. The diversion comes after the Houthis announced earlier this month that they were restarting attacks on commercial shipping in retaliation for Israel preventing humanitarian aid deliveries from reaching Gaza. The US reacted to the announcement by launching a series of airstrikes targeting Houthi forces in Yemen from 15 March. The Houthis claim to have attacked US military ships in response. Yet the swift increase in the threat level for ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Somalia is likely to have far less impact on oil trade than when the Houthis first began attacking commercial shipping in late 2023. Much of the shipping that avoided sailing past Yemen last year did not return when the Houthis declared their ceasefire in January. Around 275,000 b/d of clean products sailed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait in February towards the Suez Canal, up from 90,000 b/d in January, after the Houthis announced a reduction in vessel attacks. But this was still substantially below the 1mn-1.2mn b/d that was moving on that route before the Houthi strikes began. On the whole, the return to the Red Sea has been slow, as the cost of additional insurance can be enough to wipe out any savings made from the shorter journey, meaning that there are only a few vessels that could divert back around the Cape of Good Hope. Cape fears Taking the Bab el-Mandeb/Suez Canal route cuts out 16 days of voyage time from the Saudi port of Ras Tanura to Rotterdam. But the financial benefits are less clear-cut. Shippers would save $700,000 in vessel hire and fuel costs compared with the longer Cape of Good Hope route. But transiting the Suez Canal requires a $525,000 fee. And shippers also have to pay an extra war risk insurance premium of around $420,000 — 0.4pc of the hull and machinery value of the tanker — to go past Yemen and run the Houthi gauntlet. Even with a 50pc no-claims discount on this war risk premium, the transit and extra insurance fees still wipe out any savings made on the shorter route. At the same time, the economics of shipping diesel from Asian refineries to Europe are becoming less favourable. Singapore 10ppm gasoil swaps have climbed to trade $23/t below Ice Rotterdam gasoil futures from discounts of $30-35/t in late February (see graph). The limited financial profit could mean that charterers will not be anxious to return to using the Suez Canal and those that have done may quickly gravitate back to taking the longer way around southern Africa without suffering any particular financial impact. Some shippers are still happy to take the shorter route, despite the heightened threat of attack. At least two clean products tankers, the Al Dasma and Sea Star, remain on track to transit the Bab el-Mandeb strait. And tankers carrying Urals crude from Russia's European ports to India are likely to continue to move through the Red Sea. Of the 53 tankers currently transporting Urals, just one is going around South Africa, Kpler data show. It is possible some vessels which recently loaded Urals in the Baltic and Black Sea could still take the cape route. By John Ollett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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