IEA: Renewable growth by 2030 to fall short of tripling

Spanish Market: Electricity, Hydrogen
09/10/24

Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA expects renewable additions to grow by 2.7 times by 2030, according to its 2024 report. This would surpass most individual countries' targets, but fall short of the target set at last year's Cop 28 gathering of tripling growth.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are forecast to drive this growth, making up 80pc of new power plants by 2030. China is expected to be responsible for 60pc of this growth, the IEA said. With 670GW of new renewable capacity added so far in 2024 — a 20pc increase on the year — the IEA expects half of global energy generation to come from renewables by 2030. The EU is expected to double the pace of renewable capacity growth between 2024 and 2030.

While the IEA sees renewable growth being driven increasingly by the market rather than government policies, executive director Fatih Birol deems slow grid connection the biggest hurdle facing expansion. The average wait for a connection permit is seven years for wind and five for solar.

And lead author of the report, Heymi Bahar, added that PV manufacturers have been limiting expansion investment in response to a supply glut, with forecast manufacturing capacity for 2030 revised down from last year's report because of the financial risk facing smaller producers and negative net margins. The report also highlights the need for more investment in wind turbine manufacturing.

Despite estimates that electricity generated from renewables will almost double by 2030, the IEA sees renewable fuels — bioenergy, biogas, hydrogen and e-fuels — expanding by just 28pc by 2030, and making up less than 6pc of the energy mix. Europe is also expected see a 6pc increase in renewable fuel demand between 2023 and 2030. Geothermal, tidal and concentrated solar power growth is expected to decline because of a lack of policy support, while hydro is expected to account for less than 1pc of global renewable additions by 2030.

By Bea Leverett

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

22/11/24

Cop: Drafts point to trade-off on finance, fossil fuels

Baku, 22 November (Argus) — The new draft on the climate finance goal from the UN Cop 29 climate summit presidency has developed nations contributing $250bn/yr by 2035, while language on fossil fuels has been dropped, indicating work towards a compromise on these two central issues. There is no mention of fossil fuels in either the new draft text on the global stocktake — which follows up the outcome of Cop 28 last year, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels — or in the new draft for the climate finance goal. Developed countries wanted a reference to moving away from fossil fuels included, indicating that not having one would be a red line. The new draft text on the climate finance goal would mark a substantial compromise for developing countries, with non-profit WRI noting that this is "the bridging text". Parties are negotiating the next iteration of the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing nations over 2020-25 — known as the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). The new draft sets out a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". It also notes that developed countries will "take the lead". It sets out that the finance could come from multilateral development banks (MDBs) too. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior, smaller goal... $250bn will require even more ambition and extraordinary reach," a US official said. "This goal will need to be supported by ambitious bilateral action, MDB contributions and efforts to better mobilise private finance, among other critical factors," the official added. India had indicated earlier this week that the country was seeking around $600bn/yr for a public finance layer from developed countries. Developing countries had been asking for $1.3 trillion/yr in climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. The draft text acknowledges the need to "enable the scaling up of financing… from all public and private sources" to that figure. On the contributor base — which developed countries have long pushed to expand — the text indicates that climate finance contributions from developing countries could supplement the finance goal. It is unclear how this language will land with developing nations. China yesterday reiterated that "the voluntary support" of the global south is not part of the goal. The global stocktake draft largely focuses on the initiatives set out by the Cop 29 presidency, on enhancing power grids and energy storage, though it does stress the "urgent need for accelerated implementation of domestic mitigation measures". It dropped a previous option, opposed by Saudi Arabia, that mentioned actions aimed at "transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mitigation, or cutting emissions, and climate finance have been the overriding issues at Cop 29. Developing countries have long said they cannot decarbonise or implement an energy transition without adequate finance. Developed countries are calling for substantially stronger global action on emissions reduction. By Georgia Gratton and Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s Taketoyo to resume biomass co-firing in 2027

22/11/24

Japan’s Taketoyo to resume biomass co-firing in 2027

Tokyo, 22 November (Argus) — Japan's largest electricity producer Jera aims to resume coal and biomass co-firing at the 1.1GW Taketoyo plant in 2027's first quarter, after a fire halted plant operations in January. Jera announced on 22 November that the thermal power plant in central Japan's Aichi prefecture would resume co-firing wood pellets with coal at a rate of 8pc, around the end of the 2026-27 fiscal year ending in March. This will come after its safety measures are completed. The plant's co-firing rate was 17pc before the serious fire, which was caused by an explosion of dust from wood pellets. The company will consider increasing the co-firing rate again in the future, provided safety can be ensured. But the plant will restart coal-only combustion in early January 2025, operating mainly during the summer and winter seasons, when electricity demand is high. Jera will keep operation rates low at Taketoyo and other coal-fired plants when electricity demand is low and rely more on gas-fired generation, to achieve its initial plan to cut CO2 emissions through co-firing at Taketoyo. Taketoyo started co-firing operations in August 2022 and burned around 500,000 t/yr of wood pellets imported from the US and Vietnam. It will burn 200,000 t/yr after it resumes co-firing at 8pc. The plant will slow down the speed of wood pellet conveyors to reduce friction as a part of safety measures, which means it must also reduce its coal and biomass co-firing rate. It is also currently working on other safety measures, such as installing air pressure conveying facilities dedicated to wood pellets and explosion suppressor systems to inject fire extinguishing agents. The outage at Taketoyo has encouraged Jera to boost replacement gas-fired generation, with the extra gas-fired costs accounting for most of the estimated cost resulting from the shutdown, which could be tens of billion yen in the 2024-25 fiscal year ending in March. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

21/11/24

Cop: Talks in Baku torn between mitigation and finance

Edinburgh, 21 November (Argus) — Developing and developed nations remain at loggerheads on what progress on climate finance and mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — should look like at the UN Cop 29 climate summit. But Cop 30 host Brazil has reminded parties that they need to stick to the brief, which is finance for developing countries. Concluding a plenary where parties, developed and developing, listed grievances, environment minister Marina Silva recognised "the excellent progress achieved" on mitigation at Cop 28. She listed paragraphs of the Cop 28 deal, including the energy package and its historic call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. "We are on the right track," she said, talking about mitigation, but "our greatest obligation at this moment is to make progress with regard to financing". "This is the core of financing that will pave our collective path in ambition and implementation at Cop 30," Silva said, adding that $1.3 trillion for developing countries should be "the guiding star of this Cop". Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But developed countries insist that a precise number for a goal can only be produced if there is progress on mitigation and financing structure for the NCQG. "Otherwise you have a shopping basket but you don't know what's in there," EU energy commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said. Some developing nations said they need the "headline number first". Some developing countries, including Latin American and African nations as well as island states, have also complained about the lack of mitigation ambition. Cop is facing one of the "weakest mitigation texts we have ever seen," Panama said. But they also indicated that financial support was missing to implement action. Developed countries at Cop 29 seek the implementation of the energy pledges made last year. "What we had on our agenda was not just to restate the [Cop 28] consensus but actually to enhance and to operationalise that," but the text goes in the opposite direction, Hoekstra said, talking about the latest draft on finance. Whether hints that Brazil has mitigation in focus for next year's summit will be enough to assuage concerns from developed countries at Cop 29 on fossil fuel ambitions remains to be seen. The communique of the G20, which the country hosted, does not explicitly mention the goal to transition away from fossil fuels either. The developed countries' mitigation stance grew firmer after talks on a work programme dedicated to mitigation, the obvious channel for fossil fuel language, was rescued from the brink of collapse last week. Discussions have stalled, but another text — the UAE dialogue which is meant to track progress on the outcomes of Cop 28 — still has options referring to fossil fuels. But in these negotiations too, divisions remain. "The UAE dialogue contains some positive optional language on deep, rapid and sustained emissions reductions and the [Cop 28] energy package, climate think-tank E3G said. But Saudi Arabia has made clear that this was unacceptable, while India, which worked to water down a coal deal at Cop 26, is pushing back on the 1.5°C temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Negotiators are starting to run out of time. Draft after draft, the divide fails to be breached with no agreement on an amount for the finance deal. "We cannot talk about a lower or higher number because there is no number," noted Colombia's environment minister Susana Muhamad. The next iteration should have numbers based on the Cop 29 presidency's "view of possible landing zones". The fact that the draft text on finance has no bridging proposal is a concern, non-profit WRI director of international climate action David Waskow said. Finance was always meant to be the centrepiece of Cop 29. Parties have not formally discussed the goal in 15 years, and have been trying to prepare for a new deal through technical meetings for the past two years. But the discussion needs to end in Baku. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU countries urged to align green H2 rules for refining

20/11/24

EU countries urged to align green H2 rules for refining

Brussels, 20 November (Argus) — EU member states must harmonise the incentives they offer refineries to switch to renewable hydrogen in order to simplify investment decisions and ensure a level playing field, delegates heard at the European Hydrogen Week event in Brussels. Frontrunner countries have diverged. Germany has proposed simpler and more lucrative incentives for its fuel producers compared with the neighbouring Netherlands, while Belgium has drafted its plans but is yet to cement them until its new government settles, industry participants said at the event. To stimulate demand, these governments are working on versions of a scheme sometimes called "the refinery route" which allows transport fuel producers to generate tradeable credits if they substitute renewable hydrogen into their processes. But implementation of the scheme has been put in the hands of each EU member, which has yielded different designs even between neighbours. Industry groups from Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands argued this week that aligning their hydrogen policies would have an outsized impact and could set a direction for others. The trio account for 30pc of Europe's industry and 40pc of its hydrogen consumption, according to Dutch industry group NLHydrogen's chairman Marcel Galjee. "If we can't find agreement even in these three countries, then it becomes impossible at the European level, so let's take these countries as a start and build from there," Galjee said. Having uniform rules would simplify the calculation of the value of the incentives which is "the only way to drive investment", according to Galjee. "If we would align Germany, Belgium [and] the Netherlands, it would be much easier to determine the value of a refinery route in your business case. That is currently very difficult and it's preventing progress," he said. The Netherlands' recent proposal to deploy a correction factor to curb the value of its credits angered some refiners and industry groups . The Dutch approach to deploy a correction factor to drive more renewable hydrogen use in refineries was good thinking but bad execution, according to Galjee. The Netherlands would be better copying Germany's policies without a correction factor and then increasing the size of the Dutch quota for renewable hydrogen use in transport as a simpler way to get the demand stimulus it wants, he argued. Boosting demand was not the only intention of the correction factor, however, as the Netherlands also wanted to stop the refinery route undermining direct use of hydrogen and derivatives in vehicles. Fully copying Germany may not be a "realistic option in the Dutch environment today", and while Galjee hopes the Netherlands can move closer to Germany's refinery route system, the top priority must be that some form of the Dutch refinery route starts on time in January 2026, he said. Belgian industry also wants its government to replicate the system devised by Germany, according to Belgium Hydrogen Council chair and Port of Antwerp-Bruges chief operations officer Tom Hautekiet. "Don't try to be smart, just copy and don't change anything from the German system. I want it exactly the same, with the same multipliers, the same objectives," he said. Belgium will likely confirm its plans publicly in a matter of months, and Hautekiet is hoping the government will hear the message from industry. There could even more divergence across the rest of the bloc. Industry participants said they have found it impossible to track every country. France has also proposed a version of the refinery route, but it differs from Germany in certain other areas of hydrogen policy, which has meant the other three have found it easier to present cohesive views as a trio. The issue of fragmentation may deepen in coming months as EU member states start to transpose into national law EU mandates relating to hydrogen in industry ahead of the May 2025 deadline. This will mean even more autonomy and room for divergence. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more