Port Tampa Bay begins hurricane recovery

Spanish Market: Fertilizers, Oil products
10/10/24

Port Tampa Bay, Florida, docks did not sustain significant damage from Hurricane Milton, the port authority said early today, a positive sign for resuming fuel imports into the storm ravaged state.

Some port buildings were damaged and power remains out, according to preliminary assessments, but the port docks appear to have escaped major damage, according to the port authority. Many roads leading to the port remain flooded, but the port's main gates are accessible.

Port Tampa Bay officials are working with the US Army Corps of Engineers, US Coast Guard and others to assess landside and seaside operations. There is no currrent timeline for the port's re-opening.

Nearly half of Florida's supply of petroleum and refined products passes through Port Tampa Bay, the majority via waterborne cargo from the US Gulf coast. Tampa Bay is also the site of major fertilizer operations, including Mosaic's Riverview phosphate plant.

Chevron's Tampa refined products terminal remains closed and damage assessments will begin once crews can safely access the facility, a company spokesperson said just after 11am ET today. The company's terminals in Panama City and Port Everglades are operational.

Fuel terminal operators at Port Tampa Bay such as Citgo, Kinder Morgan, Global Partners and Buckeye Partners told Argus they are currently evaluating their facilities to determine when they can resume operations. Individual port tenants will decide independently when to restart their own activities.

By Cooper Sukaly and Nathan Risser

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: US Gulf high-octane component prices to rise

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — Cash prices of high-octane gasoline blending components in the US Gulf coast are likely to rise in 2025 after a year of declines as lower refining capacity starts to thin stocks. Alkylate and reformate cash prices and differentials have been lower over the course of 2024, in part from weaker refining margins. The lower margins are reflected in the region's crack spreads, which narrowed to $12.94/USG on 19 December from $18.67/USG a year earlier, as abundant supply in the region met weak demand . Inventories in the region have also been lower over the course of the year. Stocks in the region fell in November by 2pc from a year earlier to an average 29.75mn bl. US Gulf coast crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook, brought on by lower overall product demand, especially for gasolin e . But the EIA expects spreads to hold steady next year, even with a decrease in refining capacity, potentially supporting prices for high-octane components. The upcoming year will also bring a significant refinery closure to the region, which should reduce production and raise cash prices of components such as alkylate and reformate. LyondellBasell's closure of its 264,000 b/d Houston, Texas, refinery is scheduled to start in January. The refinery's fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC), which converts vacuum gasoil primarily into gasoline blendstocks, is expected to be shut in February, followed by a complete end to crude refining by the end of the first quarter. US total refining capacity should fall to 17.9mn b/d by the end of 2025, according to the EIA, 400,000 b/d less than at the end of 2024, with the lower production leading to price increases. Although the LyondellBasell closing should eventually give crack spreads in the region a boost, some in the industry do not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels of refining margins in the immediate future. CVR Energy chief executive David Lamp said in November the company needed "to see additional refining capacity rationalization in both the US and globally" for crack spreads to gain ground. An increase in consumer demand for gasoline would also support a rise in cash prices and differentials for high-octane components. But the EIA in December forecast consumption nationwide would rise in 2025 by only 10,000 b/d, or 0.1pc, to 8.95mn b/d. By Jason Metko Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Логистика сухих грузов - ЛП Транс: в 2025 г. ожидается рост перевозок

24/12/24

Логистика сухих грузов - ЛП Транс: в 2025 г. ожидается рост перевозок

Moscow, 24 December (Argus) — ЛП Транс повысит перевозки по итогам 2024 г. примерно на 25%, до более 16,5 млн т. Вместе с тем средний оборот подвижного состава у компании вырос примерно на 30%, однако пока увеличения количества вагонов не требуется. О тенденциях на рынке перевозок минеральных удобрений рассказал Argus генеральный директор ЛП Транса Роман Воронцов. — Каковы операционные результаты компании за январь — ноябрь? Удалось ли улучшить показатели по сравнению с прошлым годом? — За 11 месяцев мы перевезли более 15 млн т промышленно-сырьевых грузов, включая как сырье для производства удобрений, так и готовый продукт. Рост к аналогичному периоду прошлого года составил 24%. До конца текущего года мы планируем переступить планку в 16,5 млн т и прибавить 25% к итогу 2023 г., когда было перевезено 13,2 млн т различных грузов. Соответственно растет и число вагоноотправок: до конца года мы намерены осуществить 237—240 тыс. отправок против 191 тыс. в прошлом году — рост также ожидается примерно на четверть. — Были ли в этом году какие-то значимые изменения в направлениях отгрузок или структуре перевозимой продукции? — Главным изменением стала переориентация большинства поставок на внутренний рынок. Ранее нашими основными направлениями были порты Балтики и страны СНГ. Теперь же нам открылись новые направления внутри страны, и по большей части мы ориентируемся на внутренние перевозки. Например, у нас выросли объемы транспортировки сырья для выпуска минеральных удобрений в адрес заводов-производителей, а также перевозки цемента для производителей стройматериалов и строительных компаний. — Какие планы на наступающий год? — В 2025 г. мы будем укреплять позиции в сегменте перевозок промышленно-сырьевых и химических грузов, прогнозируем рост в пределах 5%. Также мы продолжим повышать качество услуг, расширять их ассортимент, наша задача — предлагать клиентам не просто вагоны, а оптимальное решение их логистических задач. Планируем сфокусироваться на большей интеграции наших технологий с технологиями клиентов, будем развивать комплексное обслуживание с гарантией надежности перевозок. Таким образом, считаем наш прогноз роста оправданным. — Каким парком сейчас оперирует компания? — На данный момент в управлении компании находится порядка 20 тыс. вагонов, из которых 1,3 тыс. — цементовозы, а оставшиеся — хопперы для перевозок минеральных удобрений, в том числе большекубовые, а также инновационный парк с увеличенной грузоподъемностью. Годом ранее наш парк был схожим по объему, однако теперь он отличается качественно в лучшую сторону. Мы работаем над совершенствованием и техническим обновлением парка, делаем фокус на вагоны с улучшенными техническими и коммерческими характеристиками. В рамках стратегии Группы Деметра Холдинг в 2023 г. было списано порядка 6,2 тыс. вагонов, это выбытие парка мы компенсировали покупкой новых вагонов. За счет этого мы получили большое конкурентное преимущество в виде молодого подвижного состава с улучшенными характеристиками, который не только более привлекателен для клиентов, но и позволяет оптимизировать нагрузку на железнодорожную инфраструктуру. Средний возраст парка снизился с более чем 15 лет до шести-восьми лет, что является одним из лучших показателей по отрасли. Больших списаний вагонов-хопперов в ближайшее время не планируется, соответственно, парк под нашим управлением считаю в целом достаточным для удовлетворения перспективных потребностей наших клиентов. — Рост оборота подвижного состава на сети РЖД не вынуждает увеличивать парк для обеспечения потребностей клиентов? — Замедление оборачиваемости парка — общая проблема для игроков операторского рынка ввиду загруженности инфраструктуры общего пользования и нехватки тяговых ресурсов. Средний оборот вагона у нас довольно сильно увеличился за прошедший год, на ряде направлений рост превысил 30%. К примеру, при перевозках цемента во внутрироссийском сообщении на расстояния до 700 км средний оборот замедлился до 25—27 суток по сравнению с 17—18 сутками годом ранее. Однако к вопросу увеличения парка мы подходим крайне взвешенно. Новые вагоны должны приобретаться только под заключенные контракты, и с нашими клиентами мы проводим подробные консультации относительно того, какой подвижной состав им был бы интересен. Львиная доля наших грузов — в частности, сырье, апатитовый концентрат — имеет высокую плотность, и для их перевозок требуются вагоны со стандартной кубатурой, но повышенной грузоподъемностью. А некоторые грузы с малым удельным весом, к примеру, удобрения азотной группы, в частности, карбамид, напротив, тяготеют к более вместительному подвижному составу. Помимо этого, мы постоянно работаем над повышением эффективности использования наших вагонов, и наша позиция крупнейшего независимого оператора вагонов-хопперов на рынке промышленно-сырьевых грузов дает нам дополнительные возможности по оптимизации логистики. Поэтому текущего размера парка нам хватает. — А что вы думаете о контейнеризации перевозок удобрений? Видите ли перспективы в этом направлении? — Перевод части грузопотока в контейнеры — это все же вынужденная мера. Как вы знаете, северо-западные порты — это основное направление для экспорта удобрений. Порты Прибалтики для нас уже неактуальны, а российских профильных портовых мощностей пока еще недостаточно, прежде всего складских, поэтому контейнеры, использующиеся, как маленькие склады на колесах, оказались выходом из ситуации. Но временным: в 2025 г. ожидается ввод в эксплуатацию терминала Port Favor в Усть-Луге, и спрос на контейнерную схему должен ослабнуть. Все-таки выполняется много лишней работы: пересыпка удобрений из хоппера в контейнер, а из контейнера — непосредственно в бункер сухогруза. Возможно, какой-то дефицит складских портовых мощностей для удобрений все же будет сохраняться и в будущем, а значит, некоторые объемы также будут перевозиться в контейнерах. Но нам кажется, что такой подвижной состав будет занимать не более 10% грузооборота в сегменте. Сейчас он занимает 15%, еще 68% приходится на хопперы, а оставшиеся 17% перевозятся в полувагонах и крытом парке. — Какими вы видите перспективы международных транспортных коридоров Север — Юг и Запад — Восток в 2024—2025 гг. с точки зрения перевозок удобрений? — По коридору Север — Юг все будет зависеть от готовности инфраструктуры и портовых мощностей. Ведь если инфраструктура не будет готова, то перспективы, соответственно, довольно туманные. На Восточном полигоне, как всем известно, провозных мощностей тоже недостаточно. — В 2025 г. ожидается сокращение перевозок угля на восток, что открывает возможности для экспорта, в том числе — минеральных удобрений. Увеличит ли это среднюю дальность перевозки и, как следствие, оборот парка? — Мы готовы к таким вызовам. Если больше грузов будет отправляться на Дальний Восток, соответственно, сократятся объемы поставок через северо-запад. При смене маршрута увеличение оборота парка ожидается в пределах 50—60%. Мы постоянно отслеживаем рыночные тенденции, и если увидим, что есть такой потенциал, конечно, мы примем все меры для того, чтобы отработать и выполнить заявки клиентов. Роман Воронцов Родился в 1978 г. В 2006 г. окончил Петербургский государственный университет путей сообщения по специальности Организация перевозок и управление на транспорте (железнодорожном). В 1995—2002 гг. — дежурный по станции Балтийская Октябрьской железной дороги. В 2002—2016 гг. — начальник отдела организации перевозок, а затем заместитель генерального директора по внутрироссийским перевозкам компании РВД-Сервис. В 2016—2022 гг. — работал на руководящих должностях в операторских компаниях группы Рустранском. С 1 марта 2022 г. по настоящее время — генеральный директор компании ЛП Транс. ЛП Транс Железнодорожный оператор по перевозке промышленно-сырьевых и минерально-химических насыпных грузов в вагонах-хопперах. Входит в структуру Деметра-Холдинга. В 2023 г. компания перевезла более 13,3 млн т различных грузов. В управлении компании находятся около 20 тыс. вагонов-хопперов, в том числе 18,7 тыс. минераловозов и 1,3 тыс. цементовозов. Константин Мозговой Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

Viewpoint: European HSFO supply to stay short

24/12/24

Viewpoint: European HSFO supply to stay short

London, 24 December (Argus) — A sustained reduction in global supply should keep European higher-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices and margins elevated in 2025. European HSFO differentials against the front-month Ice Brent crude futures contract briefly moved to a premium in October 2024, when a fall in production coincided with strengthening demand for high-sulphur marine fuel. A fire at a crude distillation unit in September severely cut output at Motor Oil Hellas' 180,000 b/d Corinth refinery in Greece, a key HSFO bunker producer in the Mediterranean region. The possibility of sudden drops in output at refineries will underpin HSFO margins in 2025, assuming Europe maintains its ban on imports of Russian oil products. Europe imported sour fuel oil from a variety of other countries in 2024 — Iraq emerged as the largest single supplier of high-sulphur residual product, according to Kpler , accounting for about a third of the region's 5.7mn t of imports. Europe's HSFO stocks will come under indirect pressure next year from falling fuel oil output in Russia. Additional upgrading capacity at Russian refineries means output from the world's top fuel oil supplier has been dropping year-on-year. Vortexa data show nearly 37mn t of Russian fuel oil has arrived at non-Russian ports this year, 12pc lower than in 2023. Although Europe cannot take any of this, the fall means less to go around globally and this has a knock-on effect on European supply. If middle-distillate crack spreads stay relatively lacklustre in 2025, appetite for higher-sulphur straight run feedstocks will probably be subdued. This could allow for excess sour fuel oil to find its way into the marine fuels market, where demand for HSFO has been strong. Tankers opting to avoid the risk of being attacked by Yemen-based Houthi militants in the Red Sea are adding weeks to their journey times, and have been looking to HSFO rather than very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) to keep their bunker costs down. If longer shipping routes remain popular in 2025, demand for HSFO should stay strong. The Emissions Control Area (ECA) that will cover the Mediterranean Sea from 1 May 2025 could dampen buying interest for 3.5pc sulphur marine fuels. A sulphur scrubber can undergo more wear and tear if it is made to reduce a vessel's HSFO emission level to 0.1pc, in line with the ECA, rather than to the current limit of 0.5pc. This increases rates at which the scrubber needs to be replaced, making it uneconomical to install one. Mid-range sulphur fuel oils are now garnering interest from Mediterranean-based bunker buyers as a workaround. LSSR As the ECA comes into force, demand for the sweetest grades of low-sulphur straight-run (LSSR) fuel oil is likely to intensify from those who buy marine fuels for vessels not fitted with scrubbers. Demand for 0.1-0.2pc sulphur straight-run fuel oil has been high in 2024, reinforcing competition between blenders and refiners for Algerian LSSR. Exports of Algerian LSSR were 1.28mn t in the year to 20 December 2024, lower by 38pc from year-earlier levels and by 65pc from the same period in 2022, but global supply was somewhat balanced by output from Nigeria's new 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery. It exported 870,000t of LSSR in 2024, of a reportedly similar grade to the Algerian product according to data from Vortexa. Most Nigerian cargoes exported in 2024 were used for blending, according to information gathered by Argus . LSSR export availability from Dangote will depend on the refinery's ability to run feedstocks through residue fluid catalytic cracking units for gasoline production. Potentially adding to west African LSSR, at the start of December Nigeria's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery sold its first cargo since its long-awaited restart on 27 November. Port Harcourt's LSSR contains 0.26pc sulphur, according to Kpler. By Bob Wigin and Isabella Reimi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost

24/12/24

Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost

New York, 23 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's threat on Saturday to reclaim the Panama Canal for the US put a spotlight on rising costs this year and additional fees planned by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) for 2025 in the ongoing fallout of a 2023 drought in Central America. Trump claimed that the US is the "number one user" of the Panama Canal, with "over 70pc of all transits heading to, or from, US ports" on 21 December. ACP data for ships destined for or departing from the US puts this percentage at 73pc in 2023 and 75.5pc in 2024 based on total tonnage of commodities moved through the canal. "This complete ‘rip-off' of our Country will immediately stop…" Trump said. The base transit tolls at the Panama Canal have been on the rise and are largely in line with those at the Suez Canal, but Panama Canal costs can be much higher for vessel operators that compete in auctions to enter the Central American passageway. The operator of a medium range (MR) tanker traveling laden through the Panama Canal would pay $279,564.87 in transit fees, while the operator of a laden very large gas carrier (VLGC) would pay $505,268.24 without accounting for reservation costs, ACP estimates. Suez Canal fees have also been on the rise , with MR tanker at $274,001 throughout 2024, while a VLGC operator would pay $487,562. But after last year's drought caused the ACP to temporarily limit transits, ACP required shippers to book transit reservations. Shippers unable to secure reservations via pre-booking often resort to the transit slot auction, where winning bids vary wildly. Pre-booked transit slots often quickly sell out to the containership and LPG vessel owners that dominate the top spots on the ACP's client list. Auction prices for the Neopanamax locks, which have a starting bid of $100,000 and handle large vessels like VLGCs, are at about $220,000, per Argus assessments. Auction prices for the Panamax locks, which have a starting bid of $55,000 and handle vessels like MR tankers, are around $75,000. The highest Neopanamax auction price was nearly $4mn, with the highest Panamax auction price at about half that level. In December 2023, 30pc of Panamax lock tanker transits were reserved via the auction system , according to ACP. The president-elect's criticism of the ACP's handling of Panama Canal fees comes as the administrators of the waterway bounce back from a severe drought throughout 2023. Freshwater levels in the manmade Gatun Lake that helps to feed the canal have recovered because of the return of the rainy season this year, but ACP has maintained its requirement that shippers wishing to transit have reserved transit slots. Prior to the drought, ACP maintained a first-come, first-serve basis for vessels without reservations. ACP ups reservation costs, adds fees for 2025 Starting in 2025, ACP is maintaining the auction system while also increasing pre-booking costs and adding other fees. ACP will raise transit reservation fees from $41,000 to $50,000 for Panamax lock transits for "Super" category vessels, including MR tankers. Neopanamax lock transit reservation fees will climb from $80,000 to $100,000 on 1 January. ACP announced a third transit option in late 2024 for vessel operators in the form of the "Last Minute Transit Reservation" (LMTR) fee to start 1 January 2025 alongside other new fees and higher existing reservation fees. ACP set the cost of the LMTR fee at about twice the starting bid of an auction , or $100,000 for Supers and $200,000 for Neopanamax, and will likely offer the LMTR fee to vessels that fail to secure a transit slot at auction. Furthermore, vessel operators that cancel within two days of their transit will be charged a fee at 2.5 times the transit reservation fee, described by the ACP as a surcharge to the existing cancellation fee, which ranges up to 100pc of the transit reservation fee depending on how close to the transit date that an operator cancels. This means that a Super vessel that cancels within two days of its transit date will receive the 2.5 times surcharge on top of the 100pc transit reservation cancellation fee and pay a total of $175,000. A Neopanamax vessel will pay a total of $350,000. "Vessels of war" should also vie for slots: ACP Trump also suggested that the ACP was charging the US Navy, alongside US corporations, "exorbitant prices and rates of passage" and that these fees were "unfair and injudicious". In March 2024, the ACP published an update on transit slot assignments for vessels of war, auxiliary vessels and other "government-owned" vessels encouraging their operators to participate in the transit system rather than waiting for the ACP to assign them a slot. "Vessels of war, auxiliary vessels, and other government-owned vessels are encouraged to obtain a booking slot through the available booking mechanisms in order to have their transit date guaranteed and minimize the possibility of delays," the ACP said. The ACP points out that these vessels of war are entitled to "expeditious transits" based on the Treaty Concerning Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Canal and are technically not required to obtain a reservation to be considered for transit. Panama president Jose Raul Mulino on Sunday rejected Trump's threat to retake the canal , which has been under full control of the Central American country since 1999. The canal's rates are established in a public and transparent manner, taking into account market conditions, Mulino said. "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent area is Panama's and will continue to be," Mulino said. "The sovereignty and independence of our country are non-negotiable." By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US east coast diesel oversupply to linger

23/12/24

Viewpoint: US east coast diesel oversupply to linger

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — The US Atlantic coast distillate market grappled with higher inventories and flat demand throughout most of 2024, dynamics that are likely to continue in the coming year. In the US Gulf coast, the main supplier of distillates to the Atlantic coast, refinery production has outpaced US domestic distillate demand, saturating the region with product shipped via the Colonial and Plantation pipelines. The US Gulf coast supplies roughly 70pc of all diesel consumed in the US Atlantic coast, with the majority shipped via pipeline. The four-week average for production of ultra-low sulphur distillates — including diesel (ULSD) and heating oil (ULSH) — in the US Gulf coast for the week ended 13 December was 7pc higher than levels from a year earlier. But overall US diesel demand was down by 2.1pc year-over-year and down by 1.9pc on the US Atlantic coast. In addition to soft demand, ultra-low sulphur distillate stocks in PADD 1B — which includes New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware — in the week ended 13 December were nearly 36pc above levels a year earlier and 33pc higher than average levels recorded since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. Even with demand flat and inventories oversupplied, US refineries have not cut production. Heightened export opportunities, primarily to Europe, have created active trade flows between US Gulf coast diesel refiners and overseas end-user markets. Total distillate exports loading from the US Gulf coast year-to-date 2024 are 10pc higher than in the same period in 2023, with a 1.12mn b/d export average in 2024, compared to 1.02mn b/d loading in 2023. But not all of the additional supply is making it out of the Gulf coast. A 4.9pc increase in production in the Gulf coast means an extra 130,000 b/d of supply, while an increase of 10pc in diesel exports means an extra 100,000 b/d in outflows. Fluctuations in vessel availability and refinery production often prevent all distillate output allocated for export from being shipped from the US Gulf coast. As a result, incremental overproduction of distillates is redirected to the US Atlantic coast, with one market participant describing the Colonial pipeline as a "dumping ground" for excess product. Although economic growth in Europe remains flat, changes in the global supply chain following Russia's invasion of Ukraine are expected to sustain arbitrage opportunities for US producers to ship diesel to Europe. Shipping EN-590 gasoil — the European diesel fuel standard with a 10 ppm sulphur limit rather than the 15 ppm ULSD equivalent used in North America — from the US Gulf coast to Europe is easier than from the US Atlantic coast because of the US Gulf coast's larger refining capacity and export infrastructure, despite the US Atlantic coast's closer proximity to Europe. Although EN-590 and ULSD have similar low-sulfur requirements, EN-590 requires specific blending to meet European standards, a process better supported by US Gulf coast refineries. It does not appear that significant relief is on the horizon in the form of increased domestic demand. Diesel demand traditionally closely traces gross domestic product (GDP). But that correlation has been decoupling in recent years as the US economy has increasingly relied on non-manufacturing services to provide economic growth. Year-over-year GDP in the US grew by 2.8pc at the end of the third quarter of 2024, while diesel demand fell by 2.1pc during the same period, according to US Bureau of Economic Analysis data. While some economists are projecting US GDP to grow around 2.5pc in 2025, this is unlikely to lead to a spike in diesel demand. Continued demographic shifts and population migrations away from the US Northeast to the Sun Belt states also do not support increased demand forecasts. With narrowing refining margins, dwindling demand and sustained higher production, market participants could expect to face challenging economic conditions in 2025. By Cooper Sukaly Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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