Climate plans progress in 2024 'fractional': UN

Spanish Market: Emissions
28/10/24

Revisions to countries' commitments to halting climate change have shown only "fractional progress" over the last year, and fall short of what is needed to limit global warming, the UN said.

The organisation's synthesis report on updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), documents submitted by countries outlining their commitments to halting climate change, shows little progress made over the last year.

Of 168 total NDCs, covering the 195 signatories to the Paris climate agreement, 34 have been updated since last year.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2025 and 2030, excluding land use, land use change and forestry, would total 53bn t and 51.5bn t/CO2e, respectively, if all pledges in the NDCs were met. This is down only very slightly on the 53.2bn t and 51.6bn t/CO2e implied by pledges, which had been made until last year.

The 2030 pledges would see emissions 2.6pc lower than in 2019. GHG need to be reduced by 43pc to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C, according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The proportion of NDCs which cover all or almost all the economy edged up by one percentage point to 81pc. And 78pc of NDCs indicate an intent to use voluntary cooperation mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris agreement, up by one percentage point. But fewer NDCs specify which precise mechanism they wish to use. The proportion of parties planning to use either the bilateral Article 6.2 process or the bilateral Article 6.4 both fell by one percentage point to 52pc and 34pc respectively, while those expressing only a general intention to use Article 6 rose two points to 35pc.

There was little change in the precise GHGs covered by parties' NDCs. While all NDCs cover CO2, the main contributor to global warming, only 91pc cover methane, 89pc nitrous oxyde (N20) and 54pc hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), unchanged on last year. And the percentage covering perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) has slipped to 35pc, down by one percentage point on last year.

The next round of NDC updates, due by February 2025, will have to show a "dramatic step up in climate action and ambition," according to UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell. The slow progress was expected, he said, with governments focusing on the next update round.

Government's plans will have to be ambitious, covering the entire economy and all gases, and credible, with substantive regulations, laws and funding put in place to reach the goals, Stiell said, adding that new plans should aim for stronger 2030 targets as well as include 2035 targets.

By Rhys Talbot

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30/10/24

Australia to support four new carbon credit methods

Sydney, 30 October (Argus) — The Australian federal government will support the development of four new carbon crediting project methodologies proposed outside of government, federal energy minister Chris Bowen announced today. A total of 39 expressions of interest under the proponent-led model launched earlier this year were submitted to the Emission Reduction Assurance Committee (Erac), the statutory body responsible for ensuring the integrity of Australia's carbon crediting framework. The four selected proposals will now move on to the development phase. "Capturing opportunities across Australia remains a key priority for the government, and we've been working to deliver on the Chubb Review recommendation to bring forward more innovative ways to reduce emissions," Bowen told delegates at the Carbon Market Institute (CMI)'s Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit in Melbourne on 30 October. Two of the selected methods were proposed by state governments — the "improved native forest management in multiple-use public native forests (INFM)" method, put forward by the New South Wales (NSW) department of climate change, environment, energy and environment, and the "improved avoided clearing of native regrowth (IACNR)" proposed by the Queensland department of environment, science and innovation. The two others came from indigenous groups — the "extending savanna fire management to the northern arid zone" proposed by the Indigenous Desert Alliance, and the "reducing disturbance of coastal and floodplain wetlands by managing hooved animals" proposed by Northern Australian Indigenous Land and Sea Management Alliance. The successful proponents will now lead work on the drafting of the methods, with the Erac to publish the draft methods for public consultation before recommending them to the minister. A representative from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) previously said that developing a new method under the proponent-led model could take 1-2 years. Delays with new methods The development of new Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) framework methods had been until now led by the federal government, but this has proved "too slow," CMI's chief executive John Connor previously said. Work on a remake of the Environmental Plantings (EP) method, which will make it easier for landholders to undertake projects, is expected to be finalised by the end of the year, Bowen said on 30 October. The method already expired on 30 September this year. And exposure drafts for three other priority methods will only be delivered in the first half of next year, Bowen noted, including the long-awaited government-led Integrated Farm and Land Management (IFLM) method that will combine activities of several existing soil and vegetation sequestration methods into a single method. This includes the key human-induced regeneration (HIR) ACCU method, which expired on 30 September 2023. The DCCEEW had previously indicated the IFLM exposure draft would be sent to Erac by the end of this year, which would then be followed by public consultation. The other exposure drafts are for new savanna fire management methods and for a reformed landfill gas method which could potentially lead to tighter supplies in the future . By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Washington state race may shift climate priorities

29/10/24

Washington state race may shift climate priorities

Houston, 29 October (Argus) — Washington state's gubernatorial race is likely to lead to a change in the attention given to climate change-related policy as governor Jay Inslee (D) exits office. The race between state attorney general Bob Ferguson (D) and former US representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) remains one-sided as it approaches election day 5 November, in a solidly Democrat-leaning state. Ferguson retains a wide lead over his opponent, with a Cascade PBS/Elway survey earlier this month showing 56pc of likely voters supporting the attorney general and 37pc backing Reichert. Washington voters have not elected a Republican governor since 1980, backing Democrats in 10 straight elections. "The numbers are going to be really hard for him because there is so many people that will see whoever's name has a ‘D' next to it and that is how they'll vote," said Todd Donovan, a professor of political science at Western Washington University. While Democrats have a good chance of retaining the governor's seat, it is unlikely that a Ferguson administration will feature the same focus on climate change as his predecessor. Inslee, a three-term governor, has been a vocal supporter of climate policies such as the state's Climate Commitment Act dating back to his time in the US House of Representatives. That includes an unsuccessful 2020 presidential bid, which focused heavily on climate and clean energy. The state climate law authorized the "cap-and-invest" program, which launched in January 2023 and requires large industrial facilities, fuel suppliers and power plants to reduce their emissions by 45pc by 2030 and by 95pc by 2050, from 1990 levels. But climate policies remain a distant-third campaign issue for both candidates, with each focusing more on abortion, housing and crime. Climate is an area where Inslee led the conversation, and not the party, says Donovan. "The Democrats are more in defensive mode defending [Inslee's] legacy and the climate policies in the face of these initiatives," he said of the current election. This defense has centered around Initiative 2117, which would repeal the cap-and-trade program. Democrats have focused the campaign around stopping the initiative on how it could affect funding, including $3.3bn lawmakers appropriated for climate-related projects earlier this year, rather than the impacts of climate change, Donovan said. Ferguson supports retaining the program but has called for changes, such as ensuring farmers receive the promised exemption from emissions obligations for fuel, which was a point of contention in the original rollout of the program. Reichert supports the repeal of the program, citing it as adding to higher consumer fuel prices in the state while putting Washington on an unrealistic timeline for transitioning off fossil fuels, he said during an 18 September debate. The move is part of Reichert's larger platform, which focuses on limiting state taxes and supporting small businesses. "We can't put a predesignated date on when we are going to change things and expect things just to work," Reichert said. Ferguson has tried to position his opponent as a climate change denier in recent campaign appearances and materials, citing a recording of Reichert denying human impact on the climate. Recent polling in the state shows a softening of support for Initiative 2117, suggesting voters will decide to retain the cap-and-trade program. If that happens, a Ferguson administration may seek to change the shape of the Washington's carbon market on the other side of the election. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian opposition signals safeguard scheme change

29/10/24

Australian opposition signals safeguard scheme change

Sydney, 29 October (Argus) — Australia's main political opposition has suggested changes could come to the country's reformed safeguard mechanism if it moves back to power next year, although its climate change and energy spokesman has fallen short of announcing any planned policies during a carbon event in Melbourne. The reformed mechanism, one of the Labor government's key measures to cut Australia's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 43pc by 2030 from 2005 levels , is not "working as the government had intended," the Liberal-National coalition spokesman for climate change and energy Ted O'Brien told delegates at the Carbon Market Institute (CMI)'s Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit in Melbourne on 29 October. "My views and the views of the coalition were very clear at the time that Labor introduced the [reform of the] safeguard mechanism — that they hadn't done the work on how it was going to impact the companies," O'Brien said. Several companies are now "very reliant" on Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) offsets, "but we are not seeing a sufficiently effective ACCU market," O'Brien noted. "That is the problem statement. As for the solution, unfortunately, I won't be announcing our policy today," he added. The coalition has been capitalising on the cost-of-living crisis and discontent over large-scale renewables and transmission projects across regional and rural communities ahead of the 2025 national elections. It said in June that it would not pursue Labor's 43pc emissions reduction target , promising instead to focus on a nuclear energy plan to bring state-owned reactors on line as early as 2035-37 , though the plan lacks details. ‘Bipartisanship' needed on safeguard mechanism The lack of policy details from the coalition around the safeguard mechanism came just as speakers had urged more political certainty to drive further investments in decarbonisation. "Bipartisanship" on the safeguard mechanism and more clarity on the future trajectory of the scheme is needed, otherwise companies could be making decisions based on the risk of a "potentially watered down" mechanism coming from a changing government, Australian waste specialist firm LMS Energy's chief commercial officer Patrick Lim told delegates at an earlier session. "The success of the safeguard mechanism relies really heavily on the success of the ACCU scheme, and the success of the ACCU scheme relies on the success of the safeguard mechanism," consultancy firm Aurecon's associate director Taira Vora said during the same session. Under the reformed mechanism , facilities that emit more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a fiscal year face declining baselines and need to surrender ACCUs or the forthcoming safeguard mechanism credits if their onsite abatement activities were not enough to keep their emissions below thresholds. ACCU demand has been on the rise, driven by safeguard surrenders , with spot prices recently surpassing A$38 ($25), the highest in 2024, as companies step up purchases ahead of the 31 March 2025 surrender deadline. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Cbio prices rise as deadline nears

28/10/24

Brazil's Cbio prices rise as deadline nears

Sao Paulo, 28 October (Argus) — Widespread demand for carbon credits two months ahead of the year-end deadline for meeting 2024 goals under Brazil's Renovabio national biofuel policy helped push October Cbio prices up by 17pc over two weeks to R91 ($16), the highest level since May. Heightened demand from fuel distributors increased the volume of Cbio credits traded on the B3 Brazilian stock exchange. The sum of trades from 1-23 October totaled R742mn, second only to the R1bn reported in February — one month ahead of the 2023 goal deadline. In October 2023, the financial volume of trades was around R691mn. The Cbio price rally lost momentum after reaching R91 on 21 October, with prices retreating recently. The short-term outlook is positive. The approaching 31 December deadline for 2024 acquisition goals and potential stricter penalties for non-compliance are driving the increased demand. An amendment to proposed legislation would include rural producers in Renovabio and make non-compliance with decarbonization goals a crime against the environment. The bill is being processed urgently and could be voted on soon. "Without news, the [Cbio] market does not have the strength to move," a source from a financial institution linked to Renovabio said, skeptical of the sustainability of the recent price increase. One issue that has intrigued buyers is the high Cbio inventories among biofuel producers. Producers are holding around 11mn credits, the most since the program started. But it is unclear whether producers are willing to sell or intend to hold the credits. As of 23 October, the sum of Cbios in the hands of distributors plus the number of credits already retired in the current cycle was 32.3mn, 69pc of the revised 2024 target of 46.4mn credits. Cbio retirement marks the end of its market life under Renovabio. The market is monitoring the 2025 goal, proposed at 40.4mn. The Renovabio committee is reviewing public hearing comments to send to the CNPE in November. The CNPE must approve and publish the 2025 goals by 31 December. Biofuel associations Unica and Abiogas support a 2025 goal of 42.6mn credits, but warn of a 12.5mn credit surplus by the end of 2024 if defaulting distributors do not change. By Conrado Mazzoni and Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gases at new all-time high in 2023: WMO

28/10/24

Greenhouse gases at new all-time high in 2023: WMO

London, 28 October (Argus) — The concentration of greenhouses gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere reached its highest level on record last year, driven by human activity and vegetation fires, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). CO2 concentration hit 420ppm, recording a larger annual increase than the previous year and standing at 151pc above pre-industrial levels, according to the WMO's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin published today, which is designed to inform the UN's Cop climate conferences. "Stubbornly high" CO2 emissions from fossil-fuelled human activity combined with emissions from vegetation fires and a "possible" fall in CO2 absorption by forests to drive the increase, the WMO said. Methane concentration also stood at 265pc above pre-industrial levels in 2023 and nitrous oxide at 125pc above. The surge in GHG levels in the atmosphere is "committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come", the WMO warned, hindering attempts to meet the Paris climate agreement's goal to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably to 1.5°C above. A report by the UN Environment Programme last week found that the world is set for a "catastrophic temperature rise" of up to 3.1°C above pre-industrial levels unless G20 countries act to cut all GHG emissions. "Another year. Another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among decision makers," WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said today. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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