Trump nears victory in US election: Update 3

Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
06/11/24

Updates throughout with latest election results, market reaction

Former president Donald Trump appears to be closing in on victory in the US election, after winning several key swing states.

Trump, the Republican nominee, was declared the victor in Georgia and North Carolina shortly after midnight ET on election night, according to the Associated Press. Trump has also won the key state of Pennsylvania, several US networks said.

Trump was leading vice president Kamala Harris in all four other key swing states — Wisconsin and Arizona, Michigan and Nevada — based on partial results as of 02:00 ET (07:00 GMT) on 6 November.

The seven swing states will decide which candidate reaches the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Trump had secured 248 electoral votes as 02:00 ET, with Harris at 214. Victory in Pennsylvania, if confirmed, would give Trump 267 votes and all-but end Harris' chances of victory.

The prospect of Trump's re-election sent Brent crude futures down by as much as 2.5pc to a low of $73.64/bl, largely reflecting gains in the US dollar. A strong dollar tends to weigh on prices of commodities by making purchases more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Trump has promised to pursue a radical shift for the US on policies related to energy, taxes, trade and foreign affairs — reversing many of the policies and legislation that Democrats have put in place under President Joe Biden.

On energy policy, Trump said he wants oil and gas producers to "drill, baby, drill" to bring down domestic energy prices and to dismantle many of the regulations and climate policies put in place by Biden, which Trump dubbed the "Green New Scam". Trump said he would immediately lift a "pause" on licensing new LNG export terminals and restart oil development in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump wants to impose a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs on China.

The next president faces decisions on the future of US support for Ukraine and related restrictions on Russian energy exports, enforcing US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and how to contain the growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East.

Republicans also took control of the US Senate for the first time in four years. In the US House of Representatives, too many races are undecided for major networks to project control.

In 2025, the US Congress is poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts.

By Chris Knight, Haik Gugarats and Kevin Foster

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23/12/24

Japan’s Chugoku restarts Shimane nuclear reactor early

Osaka, 23 December (Argus) — Japanese utility Chugoku Electric Power restarted the 820MW Shimane No.2 nuclear reactor for test operations on 23 December, two days earlier than originally planned. The No.2 reactor at Shimane in west Japan's Shimane prefecture was reconnected to the country's power grids for the first time in nearly 13 years, after the reactor shut down in January 2012 for stricter safety inspections following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown disaster. Chugoku reactivated the Shimane No.2 reactor on 7 December, aiming to resume power generation on 25 December. But the target date for commercial operations remained unchanged on 10 January, despite the earlier than expected restart. The Shimane No.2 reactor will be a vital power source as the sole nuclear fleet in the Chugoku area, to help enhance the resilience of the power supply structure, stabilise retail electricity prices and reduce CO2 emissions, said Japan Atomic Industrial Forum's president Hideki Masui on 23 December. The Shimane No.2 reactor is the second boiling water reactor (BWR) to be restarted after the Fukushima disaster, following the 825MW Onagawa No.2 BWR unit that resumed test generation on 15 November, with normal operations scheduled to restart on 26 December. The BWR is the same type as that involved in the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The restart of the two BWRs would pave the way for Japan's nuclear restoration, as 15 BWRs — including advanced BWRs — are still closed in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Japan has restored 14 reactors as of 23 December, including the Shimane and Onagaw reactors, of which 12 are installed with a pressurised water reactor (PWR) design. Nuclear power's share The Japanese government last week set a target of 20pc for nuclear power's share in the country's draft power mix for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, under the triennial review for the country's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP). Tokyo is seeking to restart all existing reactors to achieve the 20pc goal, adding that replacement reactors would also be possible. The draft SEP allows nuclear power operators that had decommissioned reactors to build next-generation reactors at their nuclear sites, not limited to the same site. The previous SEP did not mention building new reactors or replacements. Japan's Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) has applauded this progress, but FEPC chairman Kingo Hayashi noted that it was disappointing the SEP did not mention a nuclear capacity target which the FEPC had requested. It also did not include building new reactors or the expansion of existing nuclear plants, Hayashi added. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures

23/12/24

Viewpoint: Europe’s refiners eye support from closures

London, 23 December (Argus) — Another tranche of European refining capacity will close for good next year, but the reprieve for margins in the region may only be temporary. Nearly 400,000 b/d of capacity, around 3pc of Europe's total, is scheduled for permanent closure in 2025, comprising Petroineos' 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in Germany and a third of the capacity at BP's nearby 257,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery . Around 30 refineries have closed in Europe since 2000. Among the most recent was Italian firm Eni's 84,000 b/d Livorno refinery in northern Italy earlier this year. And only this month, trading firm Gunvor announced it is mothballing its small upgrading refinery in Rotterdam . The Rotterdam facility had already stopped processing crude in 2020, leaving it peculiarly exposed to the margins between intermediate feedstocks and finished fuels. The refinery has been hit by a 25pc increase in operating costs in the last four years and a squeeze on margins, the latter the result of competition from new refineries outside the region, Gunvor said. Outside Europe, the world has added more than 2.5mn b/d of crude distillation capacity in the last three years. Three brand new refineries have come on stream in the Middle East in that time — Saudi Arabia's 400,000 b/d Jizan, Kuwait's 615,000 b/d Al-Zour with Oman's 230,000 b/d Duqm refineries. More recently, Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, Mexico's 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery and Yulong Petrochemical's 400,000 b/d refinery in China's Shandong province started up, all of which are likely to ramp up throughput in 2025. Refinery closures tend to support margins for those that remain. But European refiners' costs continue to rise while demand for their products falls, which means next year's closures are unlikely to be the last. Simpler and smaller refineries are prime candidates for closure as they usually achieve weaker margins. Europe also has plenty of refineries built before 1950 that are still running. These older plants can be more at risk of accidents and breakdowns. And repairs can sometimes cost so much that they tip a refinery into the red. An ongoing concern for European refiners is the trend towards lighter and sweeter crude slates , driven by supply-side dynamics, which is resulting in higher naphtha yields at a time when demand for naphtha from Europe's petrochemical sector is under pressure from a contraction in cracking capacity. But many in the market expect the greatest pressure in 2025 will fall on those coastal refineries in Europe that were built to maximise gasoline output. If, as expected, Dangote continues to shrink Nigeria's demand for gasoline imports , these refineries will be hit hardest. Any refinery that cannot desulphurise all of its gasoline output to the 10ppm required for UK or EU usage will be under intense pressure, as west Africa is presently among the only outlets for European high-sulphur gasoline. Strike support One of the strongest supports for European refining margins in 2025 could come in the form of industrial action if new capacity cuts or closures were to be announced. Refinery workers in the region have shown willing and able in the past to organise large-scale strikes, most emphatically in France. The highest diesel refining margins Argus has ever recorded came in October 2022, when the entire French refining system was shut down by strikes. Another trend to watch out for next year is the continuing shift in the ownership structure of Europe's refining sector. The large integrated oil companies that have dominated the industry for so long have been steadily selling European refining assets to independents and trading firms. The latter are nimbler and able to cut costs more ruthlessly. And with many of them not publicly listed, they are less susceptible to pressure regarding their environmental footprints. There could be more instalments in this story in 2025. Sweden's Preem started accepting bids for its Swedish refining assets in the summer of 2024 and Russia's Lukoil is considering bids for its Burgas refinery in Bulgaria. By Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House votes to avert government shutdown

20/12/24

US House votes to avert government shutdown

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly today to extend funding for US federal government agencies and avoid a partial government shutdown. The Republican-controlled House, by a 366-34 vote, approved a measure that would maintain funding for the government at current levels until 14 March, deliver $10bn in agricultural aid and provide $100bn in disaster relief. Its passage was in doubt until voting began in the House at 5pm ET, following a chaotic intervention two days earlier by president-elect Donald Trump and his allies, including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk. The Democratic-led Senate is expected to approve the measure, and President Joe Biden has promised to sign it. Trump and Musk on 18 December derailed a spending deal House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump lobbied for a more streamlined version that would have suspended the ceiling on federal debt until 30 January 2027. But that version of the bill failed in the House on Thursday, because of opposition from 38 Republicans who bucked the preference of their party leader. Trump and Musk opposed the bipartisan spending package, contending that it would fund Democratic priorities, such as rebuilding the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. But doing away with that bill killed many other initiatives that his party members have advanced, including a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales. Depending on the timing of the Senate action and the presidential signature, funding for US government agencies could lapse briefly beginning on Saturday. Key US agencies tasked with energy sector regulatory oversight and permitting activities have indicated that a brief shutdown would not significantly interfere with their operations. But the episode previews potential legislative disarray when Republicans take full control of Congress on 3 January and Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Extending government funding beyond 14 March is likely to feature as an element in the Republicans' attempts to extend corporate tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025, which is a key priority for Trump. The Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate next month, but their hold on the House will be even narrower than this year, at 219-215 initially. Trump has picked two House Republican members to serve in his administration, so the House Republican majority could briefly drop to 217-215 just as funding for the government would expire in mid-March. Congress will separately have to tackle the issue of raising the debt limit. Conservative advocacy group Economic Policy Innovation Center projects that US borrowing could reach that limit as early as June. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet

20/12/24

Brazil Bndes invests more in Sao Paulo EV fleet

Sao Paulo, 20 December (Argus) — Brazil's Bndes development bank approved R94.8mn ($15.6mn) in financing for transport company MobiBrasil to buy 87 electric buses in Sao Paulo city. The environment ministry's climate fund — created to finance climate change mitigation projects and Bndes — will be responsible for R45mn. A federal fund to provide financial security to the unemployed, dubbed FGTS, will be responsible for the remaining R49.8mn. This is Bndes' first operation using FGTS resources. Earlier this month, Bndes said it will invest R2.5bn to buy 1,300 EV-buses in Sao Paulo city . On 9 December, the city's council postponed the bus fleet transition from diesel-powered to EVs to 2054 from the previous 2038 deadline. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US government agencies set to shut down

20/12/24

US government agencies set to shut down

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — US federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail permitting and regulatory services if no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET to extend funding for the government. US president-elect Donald Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — on 18 December upended a spending deal US House of Representatives speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) had negotiated with Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate. Trump endorsed an alternative proposal that Johnson put together, but that measure failed in a 174-235 vote late on Thursday, with 38 Republicans and nearly every Democrat voting against it. Trump via social media today indicated he would not push for a new funding bill. "If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration, not after January 20th, under 'TRUMP,'" he wrote. There was little to indicate as of Friday morning that Trump, Republican congressional leadership and lawmakers were negotiating in earnest to avert a shutdown. The House Republican conference is due to meet in the afternoon to weigh its next steps. President Joe Biden said he would support the first funding deal that Johnson negotiated with the Democratic lawmakers. "Republicans are doing the bidding of their billionaire benefactors at the expense of hardworking Americans," the White House said. Any agreement on funding the government will have to secure the approval of the House Republican leadership and all factions of the Republican majority in the House, who appear to be looking for cues from Trump and Musk on how to proceed. Any deal would then require the support of at least 60 House Democrats to clear the procedural barriers, before it reaches the Senate where the Democrats hold a majority. The same factors will be in play even if the shutdown extends into early 2025. The Republicans are set to take the majority in the Senate when new Congress meets on 3 January. But their House majority will be even slimmer, at 219-215, requiring cooperation of Democratic lawmakers and the Biden administration. What happens when the government shuts down? Some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy, which includes the Energy Information Administration and its critical energy data provision services, expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year. The Interior Department's shutdown contingency plan calls for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to furlough 4,900 out of its nearly 10,000 employees. BLM, which is responsible for permitting oil, gas and coal activities on the US federal land, would cease nearly all functions other than law enforcement and emergency response. Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, which oversees offshore leases, would continue permitting activities but would furlough 60pc of its staff after its funding lapses. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management will keep processing some oil and gas exploration plans with an on-call group of 40 exempted personnel, such as time-sensitive actions related to ongoing work. The shutdown also affects multiple other regulatory and permitting functions across other government agencies, including the Departments of Agriculture, Transportation and Treasury. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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