Trump nears victory in US election: Update 3

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
06/11/24

Updates throughout with latest election results, market reaction

Former president Donald Trump appears to be closing in on victory in the US election, after winning several key swing states.

Trump, the Republican nominee, was declared the victor in Georgia and North Carolina shortly after midnight ET on election night, according to the Associated Press. Trump has also won the key state of Pennsylvania, several US networks said.

Trump was leading vice president Kamala Harris in all four other key swing states — Wisconsin and Arizona, Michigan and Nevada — based on partial results as of 02:00 ET (07:00 GMT) on 6 November.

The seven swing states will decide which candidate reaches the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Trump had secured 248 electoral votes as 02:00 ET, with Harris at 214. Victory in Pennsylvania, if confirmed, would give Trump 267 votes and all-but end Harris' chances of victory.

The prospect of Trump's re-election sent Brent crude futures down by as much as 2.5pc to a low of $73.64/bl, largely reflecting gains in the US dollar. A strong dollar tends to weigh on prices of commodities by making purchases more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Trump has promised to pursue a radical shift for the US on policies related to energy, taxes, trade and foreign affairs — reversing many of the policies and legislation that Democrats have put in place under President Joe Biden.

On energy policy, Trump said he wants oil and gas producers to "drill, baby, drill" to bring down domestic energy prices and to dismantle many of the regulations and climate policies put in place by Biden, which Trump dubbed the "Green New Scam". Trump said he would immediately lift a "pause" on licensing new LNG export terminals and restart oil development in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump wants to impose a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs on China.

The next president faces decisions on the future of US support for Ukraine and related restrictions on Russian energy exports, enforcing US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and how to contain the growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East.

Republicans also took control of the US Senate for the first time in four years. In the US House of Representatives, too many races are undecided for major networks to project control.

In 2025, the US Congress is poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts.

By Chris Knight, Haik Gugarats and Kevin Foster

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06/11/24

Trump takes early lead in swing states: Update 2

Updates throughout with latest election results Washington, 5 November (Argus) — Former president Donald Trump is leading election tallies in a number of states crucial to winning the White House, but the final outcome of the presidential contest may take longer to determine. As of 11pm ET on Tuesday, Trump, the Republican nominee, was ahead of vice president Kamala Harris in Georgia and North Carolina, with almost 90pc counted in each state. With partial results in, Trump is running ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, while she has a slight lead in Michigan. Ballot counting just now is getting underway in Nevada. The seven swing states will decide which candidate reaches the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Trump has promised to pursue a radical shift for the US on policies related to energy, taxes, trade and foreign affairs — reversing many of the policies and legislation that Democrats have put in place under President Joe Biden. On energy policy, Trump said he wants oil and gas producers to "drill, baby, drill" to bring down domestic energy prices and to dismantle many of the regulations and climate policies put in place by Biden, which Trump dubbed the "Green New Scam". Trump said he would immediately lift a "pause" on licensing new LNG export terminals and restart oil development in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Trump wants to impose a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs on China. The next president faces decisions on the future of US support for Ukraine and related restrictions on Russian energy exports, enforcing US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and how to contain the growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East. In the US House of Representatives, too many races are undecided for major networks to project control. But in the US Senate, Republicans appear likely to win control for the first time in four years, with West Virginia governor Jim Justice (R) flipping a seat held by senator Joe Manchin (I), who is retiring. In 2025, the US Congress is poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US elections undecided as some polls close: Update

06/11/24

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06/11/24

US elections undecided as some polls close: Update

Updates with changes throughout Washington, 5 November (Argus) — Early voting results from key US swing states point to a tight race between former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris, with the outcome carrying high stakes for energy policy, trade and climate change. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are the swing states that will decide which candidate reaches the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Early results from Georgia point to a slight advantage for Trump relative to his 2020 results in that state, which President Joe Biden then carried by nearly 12,000 votes. But early voting results also point to slight gains for Harris in some demographic segments relative to Biden's 2020 performance. That would make election results in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — which typically take days to complete the count — crucial for determining the outcome. Winning all three states would secure a victory for either candidate. In the US Senate, Republicans have a pathway to win control with a 51-49 majority by flipping one more seat, after West Virginia governor Jim Justice (R) was declared the winner in that state's Senate race by the Associated Press. Democrats are defending seats in close races in Montana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If the Senate is tied, control will go to the party that wins the presidential election. Even before polls closed today, Trump said there was a "lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia" in a post on his social media site, in a rerun of his strategy in the 2020 election of making unsubstantiated claims about voting. Harris, in a campaign speech on Monday in Pennsylvania, said the election offered a chance to "turn the page on a decade of politics that have been driven by fear and division". Trump has focused heavily on energy policy and voter frustration about inflation in his bid for a second term. US motorists were paying an average of $3.07/USG for regular grade gasoline in the week ended on 4 November, the lowest price in 10 months, but still higher than at any point in Trump's first term. On the campaign trail, Trump has promised to bring down energy prices through a policy to "drill, baby, drill" and dismantling President Joe Biden's signature climate initiative, the Inflation Reduction Act. Harris has pledged to support the 2022 law and other Biden energy policies , such as continued support for electric vehicles. Harris has disavowed her 2019 pledge to ban hydraulic fracturing. But oil and gas companies remain concerned about restrictions on federal leasing and efforts to electrify the vehicle fleet if she is elected. The next president will decide key questions on energy policy, such as the licensing of new US LNG export facilities and regulating carbon emissions from power plants, oil and gas facilities and vehicles. The election will carry equally high stakes for companies involved in metals , agriculture and other commodities. Trump is planning a combative approach to trade, with a 20pc tariff on all foreign imports and even higher tariffs against China. In 2025, the US Congress is also poised for a major fight on tax policy because of the year-end expiration of an estimated $4 trillion in tax cuts. On foreign policy, the next president will face decisions on the future of US restrictions on Russian energy exports and US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and how to contain the growing threat of an Israel-Iran war and its potential impacts on oil flows from the Middle East. Polls also show a tight race in the fight for control of the US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a 220-212 majority and where up to 22 seats are deemed competitive, election ratings firm Cook Political Report says. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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LatAm bunkers: Panama demand rises

06/11/24

News

06/11/24

LatAm bunkers: Panama demand rises

New York, 5 November (Argus) — Latin American bunker demand was strong in Panama and moderate elsewhere. Prices were up on increased market activity. A trio of ex-wharf deals in Panama sold at $579/t for very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and $739/t for marine gasoil (MGO). The deals were sized at 500t and 120-230t, respectively. In a separate deal in Balboa, on Panama's Pacific coast, 310t of VLSFO went for $577/t ex-wharf. A 150t MGO enquiry was quoted delivered at $730/t. In Cartagena, Colombia, 100t of MGO was offered at $589/t delivered. At the port of El Callao, Peru, 635t of VLSFO sold at $663/t delivered. A 635t VLSFO enquiry was quoted at $665/t delivered there. VLSFO, sized at 400t, went for $589/t delivered in Santos, Brazil, for 7 November. At Rio Grande, Brazil, 250t of VLSFO sold at $616/t delivered. A clip of 330t of ultra low-sulphur diesel sold at $1,360/t delivered in Puerto Quetzal, Guatemala. Also in Puerto Quetzal, 300t of MGO was offered at $1,360/t delivered by truck. For a full list of daily, spot bunker deals and firm price quotes collected by Argus globally click here . Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Record loadings in Vancouver lift USWC Aframax rate

05/11/24

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05/11/24

Record loadings in Vancouver lift USWC Aframax rate

Houston, 5 November (Argus) — Record high crude exports in Vancouver have lifted short-haul Aframax rates in the region, pressuring the Vancouver-US west coast rate to its highest level since before the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) came online in May. The rate to ship 80,000t of crude, or about 550,000 bl of Cold Lake, from Vancouver to the US west coast climbed to Worldscale (WS) 182.5, equivalent to $2.39/bl, on 29 October, the highest since 21 March. It sustained that level through 4 November before inching lower to WS180 on 5 November, according to Argus data. The seven-month high came after a record 24 Aframaxes loaded at Vancouver's Westridge Marine Terminal in October , according to shipowner Teekay Tankers and ship-tracking data from Kpler. The previous record was 21 in July. October's loadings coincided with a record 413,000 b/d of crude exported from the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system the same month. Of the 24 Aframaxes, nine went directly to Asia-Pacific ports while five went to the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) to discharge onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The remainder traveled to ports on the US west coast. A recent shift in charterers' preferences to ship crude directly from Vancouver to destinations in Asia-Pacific , rather than via PAL, has contributed to the upward pressure in rates to the US west coast since September. Direct transpacific shipments remove vessels from the west coast North America market for about 45 days. October's high number of Aframax loadings has had less of an impact on the rate for Vancouver-China shipments, which tend to load later in the loading window and open the number of potential vessels to ships in the east Asia market. Aframaxes hired for Vancouver-US west coast runs often are provisionally booked about five to 10 days in advance of loading, compared with 15-20 days in advance for Vancouver-China shipments. The Vancouver-China Aframax rate was $2.8mn lumpsum, or $5.13/bl for Cold Lake, on 5 November, according to Argus data. That rate had been rangebound between $2.8mn and $2.9mn between 26 September and 5 November. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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South Africa plans to upgrade Sapref to 600,000 b/d

05/11/24

News

05/11/24

South Africa plans to upgrade Sapref to 600,000 b/d

Cape Town, 5 November (Argus) — The South African government plans to repair and expand the closed 180,000 b/d Sapref refinery in Durban, in the KwaZulu-Natal province, creating a facility with at least 600,000 b/d of capacity, according to the Central Energy Fund (CEF). State-owned CEF struck a deal in May to acquire Sapref from BP and Shell. The government wants to upgrade the refinery to ensure that South Africa has security of supply, CEF group chair Ayanda Noah told delegates at the Africa Energy Week underway in Cape Town. "Nowadays, a refining capacity of 600,000 b/d upwards is more economical, and that is what South Africa is aiming for," Noah said. "We are very ambitious." Sapref was South Africa's largest oil refinery with around 35pc of the country's refining capacity before it was shut in 2022 . That followed the closure of Engen's 105,000 b/d Durban refinery in 2020. Only three of South Africa's refineries remain operational — Astron Energy's 100,000 b/d Cape Town refinery, Sasol and TotalEnergies' 107,000 b/d Natref refinery and Sasol's 150,000 b/d coal-to-liquids plant at Secunda. South Africa now only has 35pc of its original refining capacity left, which means it has to import the balance, according to Noah. "You cannot outsource security of supply," she said. "There are many other variables that are outside our control. Look at the geopolitical tensions up north that affects supply chains negatively." Importing around 65pc of oil products is not efficient, especially given South Africa's high unemployment rate, Noah said. "Essentially, what we've done, is export downstream jobs." There is also a negative impact on the balance of payments and the economy, because South Africa cannot control prices, Noah added. It is the role of the CEF as a state-owned company to assist when there are market failures, she said. BP and Shell each owned a 50pc stake in the refinery and were looking to sell the facility after halting operations in 2022. But these plans were set back after extensive flood damage at the plant in April of that year, only two months after it was shut indefinitely. Four years ago, UK-based consultancy Citac estimated it would cost around $15.7bn to upgrade all of Africa's refineries to Afri-6 clean fuel standards, its chief executive Gary Still said in an interview. But those calculations were made before Sudan's 100,000 b/d Khartoum refinery was shut and Ghana's 120,000 b/d Sentuo refinery came online, Still said. It is also likely that the cost of refinery upgrades has increased substantially as goods and services became more expensive after the Covid-19 pandemic, while engineering firms and personnel with the necessary expertise are less available, Still said. By 2030, the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) wants African countries to meet Afri-6, which imposes a 10ppm sulphur limit on gasoline and diesel, in line with Euro 5 fuel specifications. ARDA's executive secretary Anibor Kragha, described the Sapref acquisition as "phenomenal," because South Africa is "claiming its energy independence through it," he said. By Elaine Mills Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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