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US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump

  • Spanish Market: Biofuels
  • 06/11/24

Renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices ticked up slightly today following the re-election of Donald Trump and a likely Republicans control of the US Senate, but uncertainty remains for other biofuel-related markets and policies.

An increase in tariffs under Trump or other policy changes to deter biofuel feedstock imports could lower the availability of renewable fuels next year. Biomass-based diesel D4 and ethanol D6 RIN credits, which make up more than 90pc of all RINs generated on a monthly basis, rose slightly early Wednesday, following upward pressure from a rise in soybean oil futures.

The soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread rose to its highest level recorded in 2024 at $1.21/USG on Wednesday. RIN prices for current year D4 and D6 rose to 70.75¢/RIN, with both posting 2.5¢/RIN in gains on the day.

While farm state lawmakers in both chambers are likely to resist any Trump efforts to repeal biofuels incentives, long-term prospects for the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit set to kick off in January are now uncertain. The incentive ends at the end of 2027, which gives Trump and his Republican allies substantial negotiating power over the terms of any extension — such as barring refiners from using foreign feedstocks.

The election results also mean a Trump administration will have the power to set new biofuel blend mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and subsequent years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during Trump's first term tried to strike a balance between refiner and biofuel interests, setting increasing volume mandates but issuing more waivers from program obligations.

While a second Trump term could be similar, regulators under the program's "set authority" now have more discretion to weigh various economic and environmental factors when setting volumes instead of tracking mandated volumes that lapsed after 2022. Federal judges weighing EPA's authority under this new phase of the program last week expressed concern about some of the agency's decision-making, meaning any court order to rethink or reset volumes would now fall to a Trump administration.

Under the Clean Air Act, which sets the framework for the RFS, refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude have a pathway to waive biofuel blending obligations if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate economic hardship." Precedent over these small refiner exemptions (SREs) affect the supply and demand balance of credits, which in turn alter the economics biofuel producers face as they rely on RIN credits as a source of revenue.

From 2017-2021, the first Trump administration dialed back environmental regulations and more generously doled out SREs. During that span of time, EPA also chose not to adjust the renewable volume obligations on larger refineries to account for those that had secured waivers. This helped create an oversupply of D4, D5, and D6 credits and drove prices down to more than five-year lows.

Cellulosic biofuel D3 credits in today's market also face a different set of parameters from the program's earlier years. The cellulosic waiver credit allowed producers to purchase waivers for D3 obligation given a shortage of RINs. But this mechanism changed under EPA's "set authority" and the Biden administration has brushed off a request from refiners to both lower requirements and make available waiver credits.

Current year D3 prices have risen as high as 350¢/RIN this year as a result as cellulosic biofuel production trails agency expectations. A Trump administration could be more sensitive to future industry requests to relax these requirements and could set less ambitious cellulosic targets for future blend mandates.

RINs are credits traded and produced by refiners and importers to show compliance with the RFS. Obligated parties can produce credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or can purchase credits from other RIN producers.


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22/11/24

Blenders credit extension stalled in US Senate

Blenders credit extension stalled in US Senate

New York, 22 November (Argus) — A push for US lawmakers to extend various biofuel incentives before the end of the year has met resistance in the Senate. A growing coalition of biofuel and soybean groups has endorsed extending for one year a $1/USG federal tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel, which would otherwise expire after December and be replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's carbon-intensity-based "45Z" credit. But lawmakers have various other priorities in the final weeks of this legislative session, and a staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee confirmed that prospects for a deal to extend biofuel tax credits are slim. "Republicans have showed very little interest in working with Democrats on much of anything related to tax," said Ryan Carey, chief communications advisor and deputy policy director at the Committee on Finance. "Their focus is primarily on the next Congress, when they're going to attempt to pass an extension of the first Trump tax law on a partisan basis." Another Senate office acknowledged on background that it is "unlikely" Congress will come to any major tax deal before the end of the year. Congress has other priorities for its brief lame duck session before president-elect Donald Trump begins his second term, including government funding, the federal debt limit, and a new farm bill. Tax policy could still fit into an end-of-year package, with some less controversial tax provisions and a bipartisan business tax proposal backed by Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) still under discussion. But prolonging the biodiesel blenders credit — plus other biofuel credits benefiting sustainable aviation fuel and cellulosic fuels that some groups have also pushed to extend — appears to be a tougher lift. With Trump in the White House and Republicans set to control both chambers of Congress, Republicans are now preparing major tax policy legislation next year to prolong tax cuts passed during Trump's first term that are set to expire at the end of 2025. Lawmakers are likely to look at repealing some Inflation Reduction Act clean energy subsidies to help offset the cost of that proposal. Republicans on the House tax-writing committee this week requested public input on the 45Z credit specifically, a signal that they are at least open to modifications — and are already looking to tax policy next year. Biofuel subsidies are seen by analysts and lobbyists as less likely targets for repeal than other Inflation Reduction Act credits, given support for the industry among farm state lawmakers. But the request-for-information this week suggested that Republicans are wary of elements of the current 45Z credit and could support changes that benefit agribusiness. Even biofuel groups generally supportive of the 45Z credit's structure have been frustrated by President Joe Biden's administration, which has yet to issue guidance clarifying how it will calculate the carbon intensities of different fuels and feedstocks. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shell will supply Brussels airport with SAF via DHL


21/11/24
21/11/24

Shell will supply Brussels airport with SAF via DHL

London, 21 November (Argus) — Shell and German logistics group DHL Express have signed a one-year deal for the supply of 25,000t of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at Brussels airport. Shell will deliver the SAF via pipeline to the airport. The SAF will be co-processed, meaning it will be produced in a fossil refinery by replacing fossil crude oil with renewable feedstocks. It will be certified by the international sustainability and carbon certification (ISCC) programme. DHL Express customers will be able to claim verified emission reductions (VER) carbon credits linked to the use of the SAF through DHL's book and claim model . DHL recently signed a supply agreement with US-based fuel supplier World Fuel Services for the latter to supply Miami International Airport with around 227mn l of blended SAF — 68mn l of which will be pure SAF — over a two-year period. DHL said it consumed 72,000t of SAF in 2023 for its Scope 1 operations — which refer to a company's direct emissions, becoming one of the top three SAF buyers globally. This amounts to around 15pc of global annual SAF output, based on the International Air Transport Association's estimate of around 500,000t of SAF produced in 2023. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans


21/11/24
21/11/24

Cop: EU, four countries commit to 1.5°C climate plans

Baku, 21 November (Argus) — The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have committed to submit new national climate plans setting out "steep emission cuts", that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The EU and four countries made the pledge at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan today, and called on other nations to follow suit — particularly major economies. Countries are due to submit new climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — covering 2035 goals to the UN climate body the UNFCCC by early next year. The EU, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland have not yet submitted their plans, but they will be aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said today. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C. Canada's NDC is being considered by the country's cabinet and will be submitted by the 10 February deadline, Canadian ambassador for climate change Catherine Stewart said today. Switzerland's new NDC will also be submitted by the deadline, the country's representative confirmed. Pamana's special representative for climate change Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez also joined the press conference today. Panama, which is designated as carbon negative, submitted an updated NDC in June. It is planning to submit a nature pledge, Monterrey Gomez said. "It is time to streamline processes to get to real action", he added. The UK also backed the pledge. The UK announced an ambitious emissions reduction target last week. The UAE — which hosted Cop 28 last year — released a new NDC just ahead of Cop 29, while Brazil, host of next year's Cop 30, released its new NDC on 13 November during the summit. Thailand yesterday at Cop 29 communicated a new emissions reduction target . Indonesia last week said that it intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the February deadline, with a plan placing a ceiling on emissions and covering all greenhouse gases as well as including the oil and gas sector. Colombia also indicated that its new climate plan will seek to address fossil fuels, but it will submit its NDC by June next year . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

TotalEnergies' La Mede HVO plant restarting units


20/11/24
20/11/24

TotalEnergies' La Mede HVO plant restarting units

Barcelona, 20 November (Argus) — TotalEnergies 500,000 t/yr La Mede hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plant near the French port of Fos-Lavera is restarting units following planned works The company issued a notice saying flaring and noise may occur through to the evening of 21 November as the restart occurs. TotalEnergies has not commented on the scope of the works, but the duration appears relatively short. La Mede began receiving feedstock again after a short break at the start of the month. It loaded a 14,000t HVO cargo last weekend, shipped to Fiumicino, Italy, which should arrive on 22 November, according to Argus tracking and Kpler data. Italy's Eni said this week that its 650,000 t/yr Gela HVO unit on Sicily is still undergoing planned works aimed at boosting the plant's flexibility to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). A tanker arrived at Gela's berth today and is slated to load an HVO cargo, according to Kpler data and Argus tracking. But the vessel has a 20 December delivery date in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region, suggesting loading may not be imminent. By Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US, Norway give $110mn to Brazil Amazon Fund


18/11/24
18/11/24

US, Norway give $110mn to Brazil Amazon Fund

Rio de Janeiro, 18 November (Argus) — The US and Norway will contribute a combined $110mn to Brazil's Amazon Fund to reduce emissions from deforestation and promote sustainable forest management. President Joe Biden announced the US' $50mn contribution to the fund from the Amazonian city of Manaus on Sunday. He is the first sitting US president to visit the Amazon rainforest. This adds to the $50mn disbursed by the US to the fund earlier this year, Biden said. Norway will contribute $60mn, citing a 31pc decrease in Amazon deforestation achieved from August 2023-July 2024. "Brazil's success in reducing deforestation is clear proof of the ambitions and determination of the Lula government," Norway's prime minister Jonas Gahr Store said from Rio de Janeiro. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has pledged zero deforestation by 2030. Norway was the first country to contribute to the Amazon Fund, which was set up during Lula's first term in 2008. It was suspended in 2019 during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, a climate skeptic, and reinstated when Lula returned to power in 2023. Projects worth a record R882mn ($151.6mn) have been approved so far this year according to Brazil's Bndes development bank, which manages the Fund. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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