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US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump

  • Market: Biofuels
  • 06/11/24

Renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices ticked up slightly today following the re-election of Donald Trump and a likely Republicans control of the US Senate, but uncertainty remains for other biofuel-related markets and policies.

An increase in tariffs under Trump or other policy changes to deter biofuel feedstock imports could lower the availability of renewable fuels next year. Biomass-based diesel D4 and ethanol D6 RIN credits, which make up more than 90pc of all RINs generated on a monthly basis, rose slightly early Wednesday, following upward pressure from a rise in soybean oil futures.

The soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread rose to its highest level recorded in 2024 at $1.21/USG on Wednesday. RIN prices for current year D4 and D6 rose to 70.75¢/RIN, with both posting 2.5¢/RIN in gains on the day.

While farm state lawmakers in both chambers are likely to resist any Trump efforts to repeal biofuels incentives, long-term prospects for the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit set to kick off in January are now uncertain. The incentive ends at the end of 2027, which gives Trump and his Republican allies substantial negotiating power over the terms of any extension — such as barring refiners from using foreign feedstocks.

The election results also mean a Trump administration will have the power to set new biofuel blend mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and subsequent years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during Trump's first term tried to strike a balance between refiner and biofuel interests, setting increasing volume mandates but issuing more waivers from program obligations.

While a second Trump term could be similar, regulators under the program's "set authority" now have more discretion to weigh various economic and environmental factors when setting volumes instead of tracking mandated volumes that lapsed after 2022. Federal judges weighing EPA's authority under this new phase of the program last week expressed concern about some of the agency's decision-making, meaning any court order to rethink or reset volumes would now fall to a Trump administration.

Under the Clean Air Act, which sets the framework for the RFS, refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude have a pathway to waive biofuel blending obligations if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate economic hardship." Precedent over these small refiner exemptions (SREs) affect the supply and demand balance of credits, which in turn alter the economics biofuel producers face as they rely on RIN credits as a source of revenue.

From 2017-2021, the first Trump administration dialed back environmental regulations and more generously doled out SREs. During that span of time, EPA also chose not to adjust the renewable volume obligations on larger refineries to account for those that had secured waivers. This helped create an oversupply of D4, D5, and D6 credits and drove prices down to more than five-year lows.

Cellulosic biofuel D3 credits in today's market also face a different set of parameters from the program's earlier years. The cellulosic waiver credit allowed producers to purchase waivers for D3 obligation given a shortage of RINs. But this mechanism changed under EPA's "set authority" and the Biden administration has brushed off a request from refiners to both lower requirements and make available waiver credits.

Current year D3 prices have risen as high as 350¢/RIN this year as a result as cellulosic biofuel production trails agency expectations. A Trump administration could be more sensitive to future industry requests to relax these requirements and could set less ambitious cellulosic targets for future blend mandates.

RINs are credits traded and produced by refiners and importers to show compliance with the RFS. Obligated parties can produce credits when renewable fuels are blended into conventional transportation fuels or can purchase credits from other RIN producers.


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21/02/25

Chinese biomethanol producers target marine fuel market

Chinese biomethanol producers target marine fuel market

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Oil, biofuel lobbies unite for ‘robust’ RFS: Update


20/02/25
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20/02/25

Oil, biofuel lobbies unite for ‘robust’ RFS: Update

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China's GoldWind offers first biomethanol spot cargo


19/02/25
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19/02/25

China's GoldWind offers first biomethanol spot cargo

Singapore, 19 February (Argus) — Major Chinese private-sector wind turbine supplier GoldWind has started offering biomethanol spot cargoes, it announced today at the Argus Green Marine Fuels Conference. The producer is currently offering a spot price of $820/t dob northeast Asia for its biomethanol, GoldWind vice president Chen Shi said at the conference, held in Singapore from 18-19 February. GoldWind is offering a total of around 120,000t of biomethanol with 70pc greenhouse gas (GHG) savings for bunkering from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026. The company plans to start up its first biomethanol unit with 250,000t/yr capacity in Xinganmeng, Inner Mongolia, by the end of 2025. The plant will feed on wind power-based green hydrogen and corn straw-based biomass. GoldWind aims to start up its second 250,000 t/yr biomethanol unit in late 2026. GoldWind signed a long-term offtake agreement with Danish shipping and logistics firm Maersk in November 2023 to supply 250,000t/yr of biomethanol once it achieves full operations, likely from 2027 onwards. The company secured a second long-term offtake agreement in November 2024 with rival container liner Hapag-Lloyd, also to supply 250,000t/yr of biomethanol from 2027 onwards. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US court pauses refiner's biofuel case after EPA shift


18/02/25
News
18/02/25

US court pauses refiner's biofuel case after EPA shift

New York, 18 February (Argus) — A US federal appeals court has paused the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s rejection of a refiner's request for exemptions from federal biofuel blend mandates, with relief possible for two more refiners as the US reassesses policy under a new administration. A three-judge panel on the US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals last week granted a request from Calumet's 57,000 b/d refinery in Shreveport, Louisiana, to pause a recent EPA action denying the refinery relief from its 2023 obligations under the federal Renewable Fuel Standard. The stay will remain as the court continues reviewing the legality of EPA's rejection, issued in the waning days of President Joe Biden's administration. Under the program, EPA sets annual mandates for blending biofuels into the conventional fuel supply but allows oil refineries that process 75,000 b/d or less to apply for exemptions if they can prove they would suffer "disproportionate" economic hardship. The Biden administration denied these petitions en masse, though most of these rejections were struck down by courts concerned with the government's reasoning. During his first term, President Donald Trump was more generous with refinery relief, which in turn weighed on biofuel demand and the prices of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits at the time. Though the 5th Circuit did not explain its decision, EPA had shifted course after the presidential transition, telling the court earlier in the week that it did not oppose Calumet's request for a stay and that it was reconsidering the refiner's earlier exemption petition. The agency said in other court cases that it would not oppose similar pauses on recently issued waiver rejections affecting Calumet's 15,000 b/d oil refinery in Great Falls, Montana, and CVR Energy's 75,000 b/d refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma. EPA's ambivalence makes stays more likely, leaving those refiners with little reason for now to enter the market for RIN credits. The agency still says it "takes no position on the merits" as its review of small refinery exemptions continues but the filings at least suggest the possibility of reversing prior rejections. EPA has not yet signaled a more substantive policy around how it will handle similar small refinery requests, which have piled up in recent months. There were 139 pending petitions covering ten compliance years according to the latest program data. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Early RD investment helps refiners weather uncertainty


18/02/25
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18/02/25

Early RD investment helps refiners weather uncertainty

Houston, 18 February (Argus) — Major conventional refiners are confident their early investment in renewable diesel will help ease their transition from the long-running biofuel blenders' credit to a new producers' credit, given the lower value they can capitalize on and potential objectives of the new US administration. These major refiners — including Chevron, Valero, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum — have greater access to capital than smaller producers and have shown they can scale even in an uncertain policy environment. They are focusing on lower carbon intensity feedstocks that will garner greater incentives this year. At the same time, the industry has gradually shifted from a focus on biodiesel to renewable diesel. Renewable diesel generates more value from federal Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, is made more often from lower carbon intensity feedstocks like beef tallow and used cooking oil, and can be blended or substituted at higher rates than biodiesel. Refinery tooling needed for the production of renewable diesel is also much closer to that of a conventional crude-oil fed refinery, meaning that refiners looking to repurpose refining assets have an easier path to entering the renewable fuels space. As a result, major refiners across the industry have invested more heavily in renewable diesel in recent years. Marathon Petroleum chief commercial officer Rick Hessling alluded to policy uncertainty on an earnings call this month but said the company's 48,000 b/d California renewable diesel facility was well prepared to weather the storm. "We will control what we can control, and from a feedstock optimization perspective, we're procuring advantaged feedstocks with low [carbon intensities] and then placing them, as you would certainly expect us to, in the highest-margin market as possible," he said. Underscoring the advantage renewable diesel has over biodiesel, Chevron — after idling multiple biodiesel plants last year — also announced the final commissioning of the renewable diesel expansion at its Geismar, Louisiana, facility this month. The transition from biodiesel to renewable diesel within its portfolio opens up greater opportunities for monetization of the new biofuel producers' credit, also known as 45Z, since the facility has greater access to lower-carbon feedstocks than its landlocked biodiesel plants. In general, biodiesel facilities rely more on local vegetable oils for feedstock, which are disadvantaged under the new 45Z credit's larger subsidies for lower-carbon fuels. Over the last six months, biodiesel production facilities owned by Delek, Hero BX, and Renewable Biofuels have idled production or entered prolonged maintenance in the wake of credit uncertainty, according to latest Argus estimates. Especially given lower 45Z credit values this year, these producers have to rely on the generation and monetization of RIN credits to balance the costs of feedstock inputs. When policy shifts like tariffs and limits on the use of certain feedstocks disconnect RIN values from feedstock costs, it can add even greater headwinds that only larger, well-positioned producers can handle. Given President Donald Trump's objectives within the energy space, the 45Z tax credit,under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and other biofuel policy incentives exist in somewhat of a contradiction. Trump has made clear he wants to scale back distribution of IRA funds and has gone as far as calling investment in decarbonization "wasteful" and "a scam." But his support base and platform favor major oil refiners in their quest to maximize output and profit in the name of energy security and job creation. The 45Z credit, which adds a protectionist spin to renewable fuel production by cutting off eligibility for imported fuels, would seem to align with Trump's focus on energy dominance. Major oil and gas companies expanding renewable fuel production and increasingly outcompeting smaller and foreign rivals only add to that narrative. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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