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Austria to ask EU to act if German gas levy not removed

  • Spanish Market: Natural gas
  • 08/11/24

Austrian energy regulator E-Control will "take all necessary steps" at an EU level if it looks like a law to abolish Germany's storage levy on gas exiting the country will not be passed in time, it told Argus today.

E-Control will take action in close co-operation with the Austrian ministry, the European Commission and energy regulators' group Acer before the end of December if needed, the regulator's executive director, Alfons Haber, told Argus.

The regulator is "very much concerned that the announced abolishment of the German gas storage levy at cross-border exit points is at risk now", Haber said. But E-Control remains optimistic that the German government will fulfil its promise to abolish the gas storage levy from 1 January 2025.

The collapse of the German government earlier this week has made it uncertain whether parliament can pass the required bill in time.

The German storage levy — set at €2.50/MWh at present — was introduced in 2022 to cover losses incurred by German market area manager THE to fill gas storage sites ahead of the winter. But the levy made the German import route uneconomical for its southern and eastern neighbours, which last year asked the EU to intervene. Germany agreed to scrap the levy on cross-border interconnection points in May, saying at the time that the change would have to be ratified by an act of parliament.

The levy "severely impacts cross-border gas flows in Europe and has strong negative effects on the CEE region", Haber told Argus. Particularly in light of the risk that Russian gas transit through Ukraine would end after 1 January, German imports would become more significant for Austria, in which case the levy would "hurt" even more, Austrian market area manager AGGM board member Bernhard Painz said.

Scope for levy law to be passed in time

The incumbent government hopes to pass some bills "that cannot be delayed" before the end of this year, the chancellor said on 6 November.

Economy and climate minister Robert Habeck on 7 November said he expects the interests of the government and the "democratic opposition" to align on energy security. But Habeck does not expect "a great deal of helpfulness", and "it remains to be seen" whether some decisions can be made together with the opposition on a case-by-case basis, he said.

Major opposition party CDU today voiced a desire for an earlier election date in German parliament, asking Scholz to schedule a vote of no confidence as early as next week. This would drastically reduce the chance of any bill being passed before the end of this year. The chancellor today said he was open to a "sober" discussion about the election date. Scholz expressed hope that the "democratic factions of parliament" could agree on which laws can still be passed this year. This common understanding could determine the "right moment" to trigger a vote of no confidence, he said. Only the chancellor can call a vote of no confidence under the German constitution. The opposition can do so only if they elect a new chancellor at the same time.

Bill is not controversial among democratic parties

Democratic parties showed no opposition to the bill to change how the storage levy is charged during its first reading in parliament, suggesting it could be passed as one of the bipartisan projects if it is high enough on the agenda.

The bill, introduced to parliament in August, was framed as a way to align the storage levy with EU rules. The government asked for it to be expedited. The upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, passed the law on to the lower house without comments on the proposed changes.

During the first reading of the bill in the lower house, no democratic party raised any concerns about the law. CDU instead framed it as an attempt to fix what the government had done wrong in 2022. Then-governing parties the Greens, SPD and FDP were in favour of the law in light of its positive effects on EU solidarity.

BMWK was not immediately available for comment on whether the storage levy was on the list of laws that the government would try to push through before the end of this year.


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08/11/24

Canada climate plans not equally at risk post-Trudeau

Canada climate plans not equally at risk post-Trudeau

Toronto, 8 November (Argus) — Canada's climate policies will be overhauled if prime minister Justin Trudeau loses an upcoming federal election, but the Conservative Party might not move to roll back all of the programs. Trudeau over nine years in office has pushed through a raft of carbon pricing policies, cracked down on provinces with insufficiently ambitious plans, and even started a global "challenge" to spur more jurisdictions to price emissions. But Canada's policies have exacerbated cost-of-living concerns at a time when voters across the world are punishing incumbents for inflation, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has barnstormed the country with a pledge to "axe the tax." An election must happen no later than October 2025, and the ruling Liberals are down significantly in polls. "We are going to see change, significant change," said Lisa DeMarco, a senior partner at the law firm Resilient and a member of the International Emissions Trading Association board at the Canada Clean Fuels and Carbon Markets Summit in Toronto, Ontario, this week. What "axe the tax" might mean in practice is uncertain. Inevitable targets are the country's federal fuel charge, currently at C$80/t ($57.54/t) and set to gradually increase to C$170/t in 2030, and a recently proposed greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade program for upstream oil and gas producers. But other policies, especially those with industry support, could remain. The country's distinct system for taxing industrial emissions, which includes a federal output-based pricing system that functions as a performance standard, "will likely be untouched," said former Conservative leader Erin O'Toole. A point of debate at the conference was what Poilievre might do with the country's clean fuel regulations, which function similarly to California's long-running low-carbon fuel standard and have boosted biofuel usage in the country. The policy is "certainly not at the top of the list" of Conservative priorities, said Andy Brosnan, president of low-carbon fuels at environmental products marketer Anew Climate. But that does not mean it will escape scrutiny. Conservatives could tinker with the program or push through more muscular changes like excluding electric vehicles, said David Beaudoin, chief executive of the climate consultancy NEL-i. "We should expect that regulation will be maybe not dismantled but somehow changed, perhaps fundamentally," Beaudoin said. In the gap left by the federal government, provinces could make up the difference with their own climate programs, panelists agreed. Quebec for instance has a linked carbon market with California, and British Columbia has its own low-carbon fuel standard. But policymakers should heed the lessons of Trudeau's declining popularity and reorient how they approach climate policy, O'Toole argued. "Try to be minimally disruptive on economically vulnerable citizens," he said. "Try not to pit industry against industry or region of the country against region." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal


08/11/24
08/11/24

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

London, 8 November (Argus) — Water levels at Gatun Lake that supplies the Panama Canal will reach an all-time high in December, according to forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). This is a significant shift from the start of the year, when water levels were at the lowest January level since 1965 following an extensive El Nino induced-drought in 2023 ( see chart ). ACP expects water levels at the lake to hit 88.9ft on 7 December and then 89ft on 18 December, which if confirmed would break the 88.85ft record registered on 5 December 2022. This time last year water levels were in an 80-82ft range, the lowest on record for the November-December months, which prompted ACP to enforce rigorous transit restrictions that sent shockwaves through LPG and other shipping markets . The change in water levels reflects the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which typically brings more rainfall to Panama. Higher water levels from the onset of the rainy season in May allowed the ACP to gradually lift transits back to full capacity by August . This has helped keep auction prices for transits at the larger Neopanamax locks near initial $100,000 bidding levels — and even outpace demand, with many slots turned away without receiving any bids . Argus ' average weekly auction prices have ranged from $112,900 to $209,389 since July, settling at $136,750 by last week. This is a complete turnaround from a year earlier, when shippers paid as high as nearly $4mn for a single transit. On average, Neopanamax auction prices cost $2.1mn in November 2023. This probably helped support Panama Canal's profits in its financial 2024 year, to $3.45bn from $3.2bn a year earlier despite a 20pc fall in transits because of water-saving restrictions implemented. The ACP said the results reflected strategies such as the "freshwater surcharge, improved water yield through structural and operational upgrades, system enhancements for reservations and auctions, and maritime service operations." Water levels are forecast to gradually decrease again from 23 December with the start of the dry season, which usually lasts by May. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina’s YPF sees jump in shale oil output


08/11/24
08/11/24

Argentina’s YPF sees jump in shale oil output

Montevideo, 8 November (Argus) — Argentina's state-owned YPF saw output of unconventional crude surge by 36pc to 126,000 b/d in the third quarter of the year compared to a year earlier. YPF's third quarter statement put total production at 559,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) with crude at 256,000 b/d, up by 8pc, and natural gas at 40.3mn m³/d, or 253,000 boe/d, an increase of 7pc, and 49,000 boe/d of natural gas liquids, up by 4pc. Unconventional crude accounted for 49pc of overall output. It was 39pc of total production a year earlier. YPF is the major player in Vaca Muerta, Argentina's unconventional formation that holds an estimated 16bn bl of crude and 308 trillion cf of gas, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The formation is at the heart of YPF's plans for Argentina to produce 1mn bl of crude and export up to 30mn metric tonnes/yr of LNG by the end of the decade. YPF is now Argentina's largest crude exporter, dispatching an average of 40,000 b/d in the third quarter, nearly all of this going by pipeline to neighboring Chile, according to Federico Barroetavena, chief financial officer. He said the company invested $1.35bn in the third quarter, with more than 70pc on upstream. It drilled 50 wells in the third quarter. YPF is moving ahead with its southern Vaca Muerta oil pipeline as it looks for partners for the full project. It has completed 50pc of the first 130km (81.4mi) segment. The second 440km, as well as storage tanks and a monobuoy platform, will require $2.5bn. The company anticipates construction to start in the first quarter of 2025. The initial capacity will be 180,000 b/d in 2026, increasing to 500,000 b/d in 2027 and, eventually, to 700,000 b/d. YPF is also the largest shareholder, with 37pc, in the Oldelval pipeline from Vaca Muerta to the coast. It is undergoing an expansion to 530,000 b/d in 2025. The state-owned energy company, Enarsa, completed in October the reversal of the country's northern gas pipeline to move Vaca Muerta gas to the north of the country. It will move more than 15mn m³/d of gas to northern Argentina. It previously moved gas from northern gas fields, now depleted, and Bolivia, to the capital, Buenos Aires. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hungary’s Mol cuts forecast for 2024 refinery runs


08/11/24
08/11/24

Hungary’s Mol cuts forecast for 2024 refinery runs

Budapest, 8 November (Argus) — Hungarian integrated oil firm Mol has revised down its 2024 forecast for crude runs at its two landlocked refineries after a "turnaround-heavy" third quarter, it said today. The company expects to refine around 11.5mn t of crude combined at the 161,000 b/d Szazhalombatta plant in Hungary and the 115,000 b/d Bratislava complex in Slovakia this year, down from its previous guidance of about 12mn t. The two refineries processed 8.25mn t of crude in January-September, down from 9.09mn t a year earlier. Their combined crude throughput was down by 11pc on the year at 2.81mn t in the third quarter. Mol carried out scheduled maintenance at Szazhalombatta between 26 July and 19 September and expects to complete maintenance work on petrochemical units at Bratislava in the first half of November. Crude intake at Mol's third refinery, the 90,000 b/d Rijeka plant on Croatia's Adriatic coast, rose by 2.6pc on the year to 802,000t in the third quarter and was largely unchanged year-on-year at 1.26mn t in January-September. The company's crude throughput forecast only includes the Hungarian and Slovakian refineries. Mol cut the share of imported crude in its overall slate to 3.35mn t, or 93pc, in the third quarter from 3.8mn t, or 97pc, a year earlier, while it almost doubled intake from its own crude production to 255,000t in July-September from 129,000t in the same period last year. Szazhalombatta and Bratislava mostly process Russian crude received through the Druzhba pipeline system under an EU oil ban waiver, while Rijeka mainly takes non-Russian seaborne crude. The profitability of Mol's refining business was hit by a 71pc year-on-year fall in its refinery margin indicator — calculated based on the Dated Brent crude benchmark — to just $3.70/bl in July-September. Its oil product sales fell by 4.2pc from a year earlier to 4.88mn t in the third quarter. This included 1.52mn t of products Mol had to buy from third parties to complement its own output and satisfy demand, a significant rise from 1.25mn t of third-party oil products it sold a year earlier. The firm's upstream oil and gas production rose by 11pc on the year to 96,100 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the July-September quarter. It has raised its full-year forecast to about 92,000-94,000 boe/d from previous guidance of around 90,000 boe/d. Mol's profit fell to 111.5bn forint ($295mn) in the third quarter from Ft175.8bn a year earlier. By Béla Fincziczki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German energy-intensive industry reduces output


07/11/24
07/11/24

German energy-intensive industry reduces output

London, 7 November (Argus) — Production from Germany's energy-intensive industrial sectors was lower in September than a year earlier for the first time in seven months, driven by lower generation from the chemicals sector. Energy-intensive industrial production fell by about 3.3pc in September from August, according to data from German statistical office Destatis ( see data and download ). This was driven largely by a 4.3pc fall in output from the chemicals industry. And overall industrial output was about 1.8pc lower than in September 2023, falling year on year for the first time since February this year. The chemicals industry has warned of lower business confidence in the sector since the summer . Energy-intensive industrial branches previously showed signs of a slow recovery, but general manufacturing output across Germany has been on a consistent downward trajectory in recent months ( see manufacturing index graph ). Manufacturing output across all industrial sectors fell on the month by about 2.5pc, having risen on the month by 2.6pc in August. Third-quarter output as a whole was about 2pc lower than in the second quarter. Industrial economic activity has remained "very weak" recently, German economy and climate ministry BMWK said. But it expects a bottom to form in about the new year. BMWK has predicted that Germany will be in a technical recession in 2024 , before a return to 1.1pc GDP growth in 2025. The German economy started on a downward trajectory in 2022 , triggered by higher energy prices on the back of a halt to Russian gas deliveries to the country. And it has since been hampered by other structural factors such as labour shortages and a high bureaucratic burden. Higher gas prices could drive output lower A steady rise in gas prices in recent months could lead industrial firms to curtail domestic industrial production or use LPG instead of gas for some industrial processes. Argus assessed the German THE everyday price at an average of €40.68/MWh in October, about 56pc higher than the €25.98/MWh in February, the index's lowest point this year. Much higher gas prices since 2022 have driven a drop in Germany's industrial gas demand. Gas use in German industry of 256.5TWh in 2023 was about 22pc lower than the pre-crisis 2018-21 average of 327.6TWh, according to Destatis data released earlier this week ( see sector demand graph ). Firms either curtailed production in reaction to higher prices or switched to LPG in some processes in which gas is used as an energy carrier. But some processes, such as the production of ammonia through the Haber-Bosch-synthesis, use methane as a feedstock, which means they cannot shift to LPG as easily. Gas used as a feedstock reacted more strongly to the energy crisis than the gas used for energy. Gas use as a feedstock in the chemicals industry fell by 36pc in 2023 from 2021, while gas use for energy fell by only a quarter. Many fertiliser producers curtailed capacity in 2023, and Europe's largest fertiliser producer, Yara, expects its European gas costs to rise on the year this winter . The producer has already indicated it will shift its focus towards cheaper ammonia production in the US and away from Europe. Industrial gas use on track to rise in 2024 German industrial gas demand is on course to be higher this year than in 2023, based on daily data ending at the end of October. Industrial gas use for production processes other than space heating was 746 GWh/d in January-October, about 8pc higher than a year earlier, according to Argus estimates. But if September's industrial output drops extend to a multi-month trend, this would pull down the average for this year as a whole. Industrial demand typically falls in December when the holiday period limits economic activity, which could push down the average further. And the collapsed German governing coalition is unlikely to send strong recovery signals to the German economy. German market area manager THE publishes a combined dataset for gas demand by industry and the power sector. Argus splits out power-sector gas demand data by assuming operational efficiencies of 39-42pc, in line with fuel use data from Destatis, and factors out seasonal demand swings linked to space heating by looking at analogue trends in the residential and commercial sector ( see demand split graph ). Argus' estimates diverge from Destatis' annual demand data by only about 1-3pc, except for a 6pc gap in 2021 ( see Destatis vs Argus estimates graph ). By Till Stehr German manufacturing index index, 2021=100 German industrial gas demand by sector TWh German industry and power demand split GWh/d Destatis data vs Argus estimates GWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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