Brazil's MAP imports were above average in October

Brazil imported 441,000t of MAP in October, slightly above the five-year average for the month, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data. Morocco's share of MAP exports fell on the year and was exceeded by the market shares of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

• MAP imports last month were below the 470,000t recorded in October last year but slightly above the 2019-23 October average of 424,000t.
• Receipts in the first 10 months of this year totalled about 3.76mn t, a sharp decline from 4.32mn t a year earlier, but only slightly below the 3.9mn t average over 2019-23.
• Since July, receipts have been above the norm, helping offset below-average imports in the first half of this year.
• A total of 457,000t of MAP are lined up to arrive in November so far, according to Unimar line-up data. This is below the 496,000t in November last year but above 411,000t in November over 2019-23. A further 28,000t have already been earmarked for December arrival.
• Brazilian MAP imports typically peak in July and remain at above 400,000t from July-November, according to the five-year average.

Morocco's share falls

Morocco's market share of the Brazilian MAP market fell by 20.2 percentage points on the year to 26pc last month, or 115,000t.

Russia was the largest-single exporter to Brazil last month at 179,000t, representing a 40.5pc market share compared with 25pc in October last year. Saudi Arabia's share rose by 8.8 percentage points to 28.8pc, or 127,000t, also surpassing Morocco's share.

Russia has remained the top MAP exporter to Brazil every month this year apart from in August, when it was surpassed by Morocco. And for the first month since July last year, Saudi Arabia's share of Brazilian MAP imports outweighed that of Morocco.

About 44.9pc of November MAP deliveries to Brazil were of Russian origin, against only 8.8pc for Morocco and 16.8pc for Saudi Arabia, Unimar line-up data suggest. The US is set to deliver 25.8pc of November volumes.

Moroccan phosphates exports to Brazil have focused more heavily on TSP this year. GTT data suggest that from January-August, Morocco sent 772,000t of MAP and 973,000t of TSP to Brazil, compared with more than 1mn t of MAP and 589,000t of TSP in the same period in 2023. And 542,000t of MAP is lined up to leave Jorf Lasfar in September-November, along with 438,000t of TSP, according to line-up data. Line-up data show that last year, 778,000t of MAP and 265,000t of TSP left the port over the same period.

With lower volumes of Moroccan MAP on offer to Brazil this year, importers had to turn to Russia to secure the volumes they needed.

Russia last week sold 30,000t MAP in the high $670s/t cfr to India, netting back to $623-627/t fob. This sale is above the netback of $603-605/t fob that Russia could have achieved with Brazil.

By Adrien Seewald

Brazil monthly MAP imports by origin '000t