Cop: Countries still diverge on finance, float numbers

Spanish Market: Emissions
20/11/24

Ministers leading consultations on a new climate finance goal for developing countries — the central issue at the UN Cop 29 climate summit — said today that "divergent views" on the structure remained, but clarified on new suggestions for amounts.

The outcome of the finance discussions are inextricably linked to conclusions on mitigation, or cutting emissions. Developing countries have long argued that they cannot decarbonise or implement an energy transition without adequate finance.

Australian climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen said today that ministers heard three different proposals for a "provided quantum" of $900bn/yr, $600bn/yr and $440bn/yr. The provided quantum refers to the public finance "core" of the finance goal. He did not specify which parties were behind the proposals.

The Cop 29 presidency appointed Bowen and Egyptian environment minister Yasmine Fouad to head up consultations on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG). This is the next iteration of the $100bn/yr in climate finance that developed countries committed to deliver to developing nations over 2020-25.

But "others have mentioned a floor of [$100bn/yr] with linkages to the contributor base resolution, as well as sources and structure", Bowen said. But some countries have argued that, taking inflation into account, this would represent a drop in climate finance from previous goal.

Developing countries have broadly called for $1.3 trillion to be mobilised annually, and this has not changed, Bowen confirmed. But mobilised finance could include other sources beyond public finance, such as private-sector financing.

And many parties said that "certain building blocks" have to be in place before they can settle on a number, Bowen added. This is likely to refer to increased action on emissions reduction and to the contributor base pushed by developed nations.

Challenging negotiations look set to continue. Bolivia, speaking for the UN negotiating bloc of like-minded developing countries, today urged the Cop presidency to "restore balance to this process".

"We are also hearing in the corridors figures of [$200bn/yr] being offered by our partners for the NCQG which includes contributions from the MDBs [multilateral development banks]… this is unfathomable, we cannot accept this," Bolivia's representative added. Developed country representatives have refuted this figure, or that they have settled on an amount.

A group of leading MDBs estimated last week that they could increase climate financing to $120bn/yr by 2030 for low- and middle-income countries. The group, comprising the World Bank and nine other MDBs including the European Investment Bank, hopes to leverage an additional $65bn/yr from the private sector.

New draft texts on some of the key topics under discussion at Cop 29, including the NCQG and mitigation, are due to be released by the summit's presidency at midnight, local time.

By Georgia Gratton

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20/11/24

Cop: Developing nations deplore finance 'radio silence'

Baku, 20 November (Argus) — With just a few hours to go before a draft text on a new climate finance goal for developing countries is due at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, there is still "radio silence" from developed nations and an absence of plans, said Adonia Ayebare, chair of the group of 77 (G77) and China negotiating group. Parties must agree at Cop 29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, on a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — a new climate finance target — building on the current $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. There is a strong hope that the forthcoming text will clearly define financial commitments detailing the amount, quality and mechanism for delivery, Ayebare said. A perfect text does not exist, he said, adding that developing countries have already put forth a figure that reflects their needs. They are broadly calling , for 1.3 trillion/yr while developed countries have not indicated an amount. "We need a figure for the headline of the text [in trillions], the rest will follow." The EU today insisted that the precise number for the goal will depend on agreement on other issues, including progress on mitigation and financing structure. In response to a question about uncorroborated rumours that developed countries may be considering a figure of $200bn/yr, Bolivia's negotiator Diego Pacheco said: "Is this a joke?" Developed country representatives have so far refuted this figure , or that they have settled on an amount. The "super red line" for the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) group is to not reinterpret or rewrite the Paris Agreement, said Pacheco, representing the group. The NCQG should be grounded in the mandate of the Paris accord, which states finance should flow from developed to developing countries. "Negotiations don't need to reopen the Paris agreement, but we can look at another area [such as] voluntary contributions for example, but that comes after the headline [figure], Ayebare said. Pacheco also talked about developed countries' attempts on mitigation, for example, to "move from the facilitative nature of the Paris Agreement to a prescriptive, intrusive mitigation… cherry-picking some elements of the [global stocktake]," he added. The EU and other developing nations are pushing for language on transitioning away from all fossil fuels that was included in the outcome of Cop 28 in Dubai last year to be included in this year's outcomes. By Prethika Nair and Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU warns on fossil fuel ambition backsliding

20/11/24

Cop: EU warns on fossil fuel ambition backsliding

Baku, 20 November (Argus) — The EU has warned parties at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, against going back on pledges made last year in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels. Language on transitioning away from all fossil fuels was included in the outcome of Cop 28 in Dubai last year in a historic first, with almost 200 countries including major fossil fuel producers agreeing to the text. And the EU is pushing for the same commitment to be included in this year's outcomes. "No one should pretend that the previous Cop didn't happen," European commissioner for energy Wopke Hoekstra said today. "There is the clear expectation that once you've signed up to do something, you actually do it," he said, adding that "the last Cop was very specific about transitioning away from fossil fuels". The EU views the declaration of G20 leaders, released on Tuesday morning, as an endorsement "in its entirety" of the outcomes of Cop 28, Hoekstra said. Further enhancing mitigation — reducing emissions — policies will be a "crystal clear element" that the bloc will focus on in the coming days, he said. Failing to include language on transitioning away from fossil fuels would mean last year's Cop should be considered a failure, according to Lidia Pereira, head of the European parliament delegation in Baku. But she trusts delegates from the UAE to be strong advocates for the wording on transitioning away from fossil fuels, she said. The UAE is part of the Arab States negotiating group, which also includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq and Libya. Work on a mitigation outcome was rescued from the brink of collapse at the start of last week but is progressing slowly. As of last night negotiators did not have a draft text on mitigation, but must deliver one to the Cop presidency for publication around midnight. If parties fail to come to a conclusion in mitigation talks, the text for a new finance goal may become the main space in which fossil fuel language could land. Its most recent draft, released on 16 November, includes references to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Negotiations on climate financing — the so-called new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — to help developing countries adapt to and address climate change are central to this year's Cop. Thorny issues have included the amount of financing, which countries should contribute, the form that the financing will take and the broadening of the contributor base. The next draft is scheduled to released around midnight on Wednesday, after negotiators have spent days working to bring parties' initial positions closer together. Hoekstra refused to be drawn on reports, raised by Bolivia's representative , that the EU is eyeing a number of $200bn/yr for the NCQG, well below the expectations of likely recipient countries. The EU prefers to focus on other elements, including progress on Article 6 and mitigation, before having a "meaningful conversation about the exact amount", Hoekstra said. Talks on finalising the details of an international carbon market under the Article 6 of the Paris Agreement continue to inch forward at Cop 29, but with key sticking points yet to be resolved. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Thailand updates emissions reduction goal

20/11/24

Cop: Thailand updates emissions reduction goal

Baku, 20 November (Argus) — Thailand aims to raise its absolute emissions reduction goal in its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC), its minister of natural resources and environment, Chalermchai Sri-on, said at the UN Cop 29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country will raise its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target in the third iteration of its NDC, to an absolute emissions reduction of "below 270mn t of CO2 equivalent" (CO2e) by 2035, compared with the 2019 level, said Sri-on on 19 November. He did not provide details on when this latest NDC will be submitted. Thailand is determined to enhance its mitigation actions to achieve its current NDC by reducing GHG emissions by 222mn t of CO2e by 2030, said Sri-on. Thailand's current NDC includes an unconditional emissions reduction target of 30pc by 2030, and conditional emissions reduction target of 40pc, compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Measuring against BAU scenarios — where GHG would continue to rise unlimited — leaves space for emissions to increase under climate plans. Thailand will support the implementation of its new NDC with a comprehensive green investment plan, said Sri-on, without providing more details. The country is also pushing forward its climate change act to formulate a balanced package in developing carbon pricing instruments and a climate fund, to steer its economic development towards climate resilience, he added. Thailand aims to achieve "carbon neutrality" by 2050 and net zero by 2065. Representatives from southeast Asian nations at Cop 29 last week indicated some of the challenges they face in updating their NDCs . Different models are used for different sectors and these need to be calibrated to ensure every single ministry accepts new targets, said Laksmi Dhewanthi, director general of climate change at Indonesia's ministry of environment. Finance also poses a challenge, said Ahmad Zaiemaddien, head of Brunei's climate change secretariat under the prime minister's office. Brunei, for example, needs to work with central banks and local banks, and get support from other partners to bring the cost of capital down, he said. But Indonesia nevertheless intends to submit its updated NDC ahead of the deadline in February 2025, in line with the push by the Troika — the partnership between Cop presidencies of the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil — to be one of the early movers in submitting updated goals. The country's NDC will be updated to cover GHGs other than CO2, including hydrofluorocarbons. It will also expand to new sectors, including the oil and gas sector. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Denmark tops 'climate change performance index'

20/11/24

Denmark tops 'climate change performance index'

Berlin, 20 November (Argus) — Denmark tops the latest "climate change performance index" (CCPI 2025) published on Wednesday by German non-governmental organisations (NGO) Germanwatch and NewClimate Institute. But the country only manages fourth place, with no nations doing enough to meet its climate targets under the Paris Agreement, the NGOs said. The CCPI, published annually, monitors the climate action performance of 63 countries and the European Union (EU), which collectively account for more than 90pc of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. "No country deserves to be on the podium, but some countries are doing better than others," co-author Jan Burck from Germanwatch said at the presentation of the index at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. Denmark tops the league for the fourth year running, thanks to its steady and comprehensive climate policy, its strong targets and renewables deployment. Other "high performers" include the UK, which is "back on track" after having seen its ranking plummet: the UK moved up to 6th position from 20th, thanks to the new government's strong climate policy framework, and the country's successful coal phase-out. But the UK's transition away from oil and gas is progressing too slowly, the NGOs warned. India, another high performer, managed to climb the ranks to 10th place thanks to strong renewables deployment. Medium-performing countries include Germany, which has fallen two ranks to 16th despite strong renewables deployment, as the country's buildings and transport sectors struggle to reduce their emissions, and as the country plans to expand its gas consumption, and faces budgetary constraints. Medium-ranking Brazil, while improving its CCPI ranking since president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office last year, fell five ranks on the year to 28th, given the country's continuously strong reliance on fossil fuels, and despite lower deforestation rates. Unlike previous editions, no EU country received an overall "very low" rating. Bulgaria, at 50th, is the worst performing EU country. The four last-placed countries in the CCPI — Iran (67th) at the bottom, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia — number among the world's largest oil and gas producers.These countries not only emit high volumes of GHG, but also – largely – lack emissions policies or climate regulation, with no discernible shift away from the fossil fuel business model and a proportion of renewables in their respective energy mix that is below 3pc, according to the NGOs. Co-author Niklas Hoehne from NewClimate said that there are many signs that the world is at a turning point, and that the peak in global emissions is "within reach", though US president-elect Donald Trump could act as a "brake" on the now necessary rapid cuts in emissions. The US occupy an unchanged 57th position. Burck said that China, falling to 55th from 51st position, faces a "huge" opportunity to gain international recognition, as the country's GHG emissions appear to have almost peaked, and as it experiences an unprecedented boom in renewable energies. What is now needed is a "clear move away from fossil fuels", Burck said. This clear move is not yet apparent, but this could change with the country's upcoming new five-year plan. In this case, China could "quickly" climb up the index, Burck said. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Divides remain in Article 6 talks

20/11/24

Cop: Divides remain in Article 6 talks

Baku, 20 November (Argus) — Talks on finalizing the details of an international carbon market under the Paris Agreement continue to inch forward at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, but with key sticking points yet to be resolved. The ministers leading the carbon market talks released new texts for Article 6.2 and Article 6.4 late on Tuesday and plan to hold consultations this afternoon as they try to bridge the remaining gaps. Those two sections of the Paris Agreement govern how countries can use carbon credits to meet their GHG emissions-reduction pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Article 6 aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. "We are very encouraged by the constructive approach by all groups and parties and hope we continue in this mode", New Zealand environment minister Simon Watts said on Wednesday during a stocktake of the negotiations held by the Cop presidency. Talks in Baku on Article 6 got off to a positive start, with parties agreeing to carbon credit standards, which provided a sense of optimism to the negotiations. But countries remain divided on certain issues, such as whether the Article 6.2 registry is meant to serve only an accounting function or can also be a transaction registry. Most parties say they could live with the Article 6.2 registry lacking the ability to issue credits, known as internationally transferable mitigation outcome (Itmo) units, but they are divided on whether it should be able to transfer and hold the units, said Singapore minister of sustainability and environment Grace Fu, who is facilitating the talks with Watts. "Our preliminary view is that a potential landing could be to explore a dual registry system," she said. Under this approach the Paris registry would only serve an accounting function, while the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change secretariat could provide separate system that would "provide parties with issuance functionality," Fu said. Watts also said that there are "divergent views" on other issues, including how to address "inconsistencies" with carbon credits, such as avoiding double counting of emissions reductions, but did not provide any details. "We are monitoring these issues as well for the final agreement," he said. The latest 6.2 negotiating text says that Itmos found to inconsistent cannot count toward a country's NDC or any other international emissions mitigation purposes until a review is completed and those issues are resolved. In addition, the text calls for a team of technical experts to determine whether any inconsistencies are "significant" and that any found to be significant and "persistent" to be made public. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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