Trump tariff could hit Canada potash to US

Spanish Market: Fertilizers
27/11/24

US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico could increase potash prices in the US.

Trump said Monday via social media that he would he would slap 25pc tariffs on all products from the two neighboring countries after he takes office on 20 January.

For the US fertilizer market, the greatest potential impact would be on potash.

Canada provided 87pc of all US potash imports at 11.7mn metric tonnes in the fertilizer year ended in June, according to US Census Bureau data.

The potential tariffs put Canadian suppliers in a tight spot. They could cut prices to mitigate importers' higher costs. Or they could hold prices steady to maintain netbacks but risk losing sales in the US market on which they rely and have extensive distribution networks.

US Corn Belt MOP prices have dropped to around $300/st fot in November. With a 25pc tariff added on, importers would need to sell MOP at $375/st fot to receive the same margins. Canadian producers could also eat some of the tariff cost, as they have limited alternative markets for US volumes.

The overall impact remains unclear and "too early to tell," according to market participants. One potential sign of the tariff threat taking effect would be if US buyers move up winter fill buying to December to get ahead of the 20 January deadline.

Canada could retaliate with its own tariffs, just as Mexico has said it would consider. Trump, who used tariff negotiations as a negotiation tactic in his first presidential term, could also end up exempting fertilizer products from his proposed tariffs, according to market participants.

By Meghan Yoyotte

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27/12/24

Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025

Sao Paulo, 27 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to enter 2025 with a last-minute surge in demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, as farmers continue to postpone purchases for the 2024-25 second corn crop. Around 10-15pc of all fertilizer needs have yet to be purchased for the corn crop, whose planting is expected to start by February in central-western Mato Grosso state. Brazilian farmers have been delaying agreements for inputs as they wait for lower fertilizer prices and higher grain prices. The most delayed fertilizer acquisition is urea, with buyers expecting further price drops before committing to volumes. Granular urea prices were at $359/metric tonnes (t) cfr Brazil by 19 December, $39/t above the same period in 2023. The overall pace of input purchases is in line with farmers' buying patterns for the 2023-24 corn crop and 2024-25 soybean crop, when growers also waited until the last minute to secure final volumes. Traditional 4Q buying surged delayed Brazilian buyers used to speed up the pace of fertilizer purchases in the fourth quarter to supply the second corn crop. This would give them time to receive the inputs in time for application, without last-minute logistic concerns. But unexpected changes in fertilizer price trends, combined with changes in the timing of the soybean crop, led farmers to change this buying pattern and wait as long as possible before concluding deals. Farmers' saw this last-minute buying strategy rewarded in early 2024 when urea prices were about $393/t cfr Brazil, below levels seen earlier in October 2023. And a delay in the 2024-25 soybean planting because of unfavorable weather conditions also contributed to postponed fertilizer acquisitions for corn, since the soybean harvest would likely be delayed and force farmers to plant corn outside the ideal period. Those factors are set to again push final urea purchases to January. Some volumes traded in November-December may discharge in ports in January, intensifying deliveries in the first months of the year. Brazil imported 7.6mn t of urea in January-November, 19pc above the same period in 2023. The latest lineup data from 26 December points to around 400,000t to be delivered at ports in December and 422,000t in January, according to maritime agency Unimar. Farmers focused on acquiring ammonium sulphate (amsul) volumes in the past three months, as prices carried a discount considering the nitrogen content compared with urea while also adding sulphur. There is plenty of available compacted/granular amsul, with Chinese producers eyeing Brazil as an outlet for the product. Imports of amsul totaled 5.1mn t in the first 11 months of the year, 18pc above the same period last year. A total of 596,000t and 1.2mn t were set to discharge in ports in December and January, respectively, according to Unimar's lineup data from 26 December. The trend is the same in the domestic market, with purchases advancing slowly. Some cooperatives and retailers bought volumes to guarantee availability when farmers decide to buy. Farmers are most advanced in theirs potash (MOP) acquisitions, as its lower-than-usual price has motivated farmers to buy the fertilizer for 2025-26 corn and soybeans. Market participants estimate that around 50pc of MOP needs in Mato Grosso for the 2025-26 soybean crop were purchased by early December. Demand has been high for the first quarter of 2025, leading to expectations of intense MOP deliveries at ports. This would mean a high flow in the inland market, competing with urea volumes handling in January-February. By Gisele Augusto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

26/12/24

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring. Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports. But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US. Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October. Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants. Amsul's relationship status update Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December. Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season. Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Логистика сухих грузов - ЛП Транс: в 2025 г. ожидается рост перевозок

24/12/24

Логистика сухих грузов - ЛП Транс: в 2025 г. ожидается рост перевозок

Moscow, 24 December (Argus) — ЛП Транс повысит перевозки по итогам 2024 г. примерно на 25%, до более 16,5 млн т. Вместе с тем средний оборот подвижного состава у компании вырос примерно на 30%, однако пока увеличения количества вагонов не требуется. О тенденциях на рынке перевозок минеральных удобрений рассказал Argus генеральный директор ЛП Транса Роман Воронцов. — Каковы операционные результаты компании за январь — ноябрь? Удалось ли улучшить показатели по сравнению с прошлым годом? — За 11 месяцев мы перевезли более 15 млн т промышленно-сырьевых грузов, включая как сырье для производства удобрений, так и готовый продукт. Рост к аналогичному периоду прошлого года составил 24%. До конца текущего года мы планируем переступить планку в 16,5 млн т и прибавить 25% к итогу 2023 г., когда было перевезено 13,2 млн т различных грузов. Соответственно растет и число вагоноотправок: до конца года мы намерены осуществить 237—240 тыс. отправок против 191 тыс. в прошлом году — рост также ожидается примерно на четверть. — Были ли в этом году какие-то значимые изменения в направлениях отгрузок или структуре перевозимой продукции? — Главным изменением стала переориентация большинства поставок на внутренний рынок. Ранее нашими основными направлениями были порты Балтики и страны СНГ. Теперь же нам открылись новые направления внутри страны, и по большей части мы ориентируемся на внутренние перевозки. Например, у нас выросли объемы транспортировки сырья для выпуска минеральных удобрений в адрес заводов-производителей, а также перевозки цемента для производителей стройматериалов и строительных компаний. — Какие планы на наступающий год? — В 2025 г. мы будем укреплять позиции в сегменте перевозок промышленно-сырьевых и химических грузов, прогнозируем рост в пределах 5%. Также мы продолжим повышать качество услуг, расширять их ассортимент, наша задача — предлагать клиентам не просто вагоны, а оптимальное решение их логистических задач. Планируем сфокусироваться на большей интеграции наших технологий с технологиями клиентов, будем развивать комплексное обслуживание с гарантией надежности перевозок. Таким образом, считаем наш прогноз роста оправданным. — Каким парком сейчас оперирует компания? — На данный момент в управлении компании находится порядка 20 тыс. вагонов, из которых 1,3 тыс. — цементовозы, а оставшиеся — хопперы для перевозок минеральных удобрений, в том числе большекубовые, а также инновационный парк с увеличенной грузоподъемностью. Годом ранее наш парк был схожим по объему, однако теперь он отличается качественно в лучшую сторону. Мы работаем над совершенствованием и техническим обновлением парка, делаем фокус на вагоны с улучшенными техническими и коммерческими характеристиками. В рамках стратегии Группы Деметра Холдинг в 2023 г. было списано порядка 6,2 тыс. вагонов, это выбытие парка мы компенсировали покупкой новых вагонов. За счет этого мы получили большое конкурентное преимущество в виде молодого подвижного состава с улучшенными характеристиками, который не только более привлекателен для клиентов, но и позволяет оптимизировать нагрузку на железнодорожную инфраструктуру. Средний возраст парка снизился с более чем 15 лет до шести-восьми лет, что является одним из лучших показателей по отрасли. Больших списаний вагонов-хопперов в ближайшее время не планируется, соответственно, парк под нашим управлением считаю в целом достаточным для удовлетворения перспективных потребностей наших клиентов. — Рост оборота подвижного состава на сети РЖД не вынуждает увеличивать парк для обеспечения потребностей клиентов? — Замедление оборачиваемости парка — общая проблема для игроков операторского рынка ввиду загруженности инфраструктуры общего пользования и нехватки тяговых ресурсов. Средний оборот вагона у нас довольно сильно увеличился за прошедший год, на ряде направлений рост превысил 30%. К примеру, при перевозках цемента во внутрироссийском сообщении на расстояния до 700 км средний оборот замедлился до 25—27 суток по сравнению с 17—18 сутками годом ранее. Однако к вопросу увеличения парка мы подходим крайне взвешенно. Новые вагоны должны приобретаться только под заключенные контракты, и с нашими клиентами мы проводим подробные консультации относительно того, какой подвижной состав им был бы интересен. Львиная доля наших грузов — в частности, сырье, апатитовый концентрат — имеет высокую плотность, и для их перевозок требуются вагоны со стандартной кубатурой, но повышенной грузоподъемностью. А некоторые грузы с малым удельным весом, к примеру, удобрения азотной группы, в частности, карбамид, напротив, тяготеют к более вместительному подвижному составу. Помимо этого, мы постоянно работаем над повышением эффективности использования наших вагонов, и наша позиция крупнейшего независимого оператора вагонов-хопперов на рынке промышленно-сырьевых грузов дает нам дополнительные возможности по оптимизации логистики. Поэтому текущего размера парка нам хватает. — А что вы думаете о контейнеризации перевозок удобрений? Видите ли перспективы в этом направлении? — Перевод части грузопотока в контейнеры — это все же вынужденная мера. Как вы знаете, северо-западные порты — это основное направление для экспорта удобрений. Порты Прибалтики для нас уже неактуальны, а российских профильных портовых мощностей пока еще недостаточно, прежде всего складских, поэтому контейнеры, использующиеся, как маленькие склады на колесах, оказались выходом из ситуации. Но временным: в 2025 г. ожидается ввод в эксплуатацию терминала Port Favor в Усть-Луге, и спрос на контейнерную схему должен ослабнуть. Все-таки выполняется много лишней работы: пересыпка удобрений из хоппера в контейнер, а из контейнера — непосредственно в бункер сухогруза. Возможно, какой-то дефицит складских портовых мощностей для удобрений все же будет сохраняться и в будущем, а значит, некоторые объемы также будут перевозиться в контейнерах. Но нам кажется, что такой подвижной состав будет занимать не более 10% грузооборота в сегменте. Сейчас он занимает 15%, еще 68% приходится на хопперы, а оставшиеся 17% перевозятся в полувагонах и крытом парке. — Какими вы видите перспективы международных транспортных коридоров Север — Юг и Запад — Восток в 2024—2025 гг. с точки зрения перевозок удобрений? — По коридору Север — Юг все будет зависеть от готовности инфраструктуры и портовых мощностей. Ведь если инфраструктура не будет готова, то перспективы, соответственно, довольно туманные. На Восточном полигоне, как всем известно, провозных мощностей тоже недостаточно. — В 2025 г. ожидается сокращение перевозок угля на восток, что открывает возможности для экспорта, в том числе — минеральных удобрений. Увеличит ли это среднюю дальность перевозки и, как следствие, оборот парка? — Мы готовы к таким вызовам. Если больше грузов будет отправляться на Дальний Восток, соответственно, сократятся объемы поставок через северо-запад. При смене маршрута увеличение оборота парка ожидается в пределах 50—60%. Мы постоянно отслеживаем рыночные тенденции, и если увидим, что есть такой потенциал, конечно, мы примем все меры для того, чтобы отработать и выполнить заявки клиентов. Роман Воронцов Родился в 1978 г. В 2006 г. окончил Петербургский государственный университет путей сообщения по специальности Организация перевозок и управление на транспорте (железнодорожном). В 1995—2002 гг. — дежурный по станции Балтийская Октябрьской железной дороги. В 2002—2016 гг. — начальник отдела организации перевозок, а затем заместитель генерального директора по внутрироссийским перевозкам компании РВД-Сервис. В 2016—2022 гг. — работал на руководящих должностях в операторских компаниях группы Рустранском. С 1 марта 2022 г. по настоящее время — генеральный директор компании ЛП Транс. ЛП Транс Железнодорожный оператор по перевозке промышленно-сырьевых и минерально-химических насыпных грузов в вагонах-хопперах. Входит в структуру Деметра-Холдинга. В 2023 г. компания перевезла более 13,3 млн т различных грузов. В управлении компании находятся около 20 тыс. вагонов-хопперов, в том числе 18,7 тыс. минераловозов и 1,3 тыс. цементовозов. Константин Мозговой Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

Viewpoint: Tight US phosphate supply may ease

23/12/24

Viewpoint: Tight US phosphate supply may ease

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — US phosphate buyers expect tight supply to ease next year after a lackluster fall application season left bins fuller, while unfavorable affordability will likely curtail spring demand. Tight P2O5 supply concerns driven by supply disruptions were of frequent concern among market participants earlier this year when DAP prices were roughly $80-100/st higher than price levels at the start of this December and MAP prices were at least $20/st higher. In May, a brush fire at major US phosphate producer Mosaic's Riverview facility in Florida caused a decrease in output. Market fundamentals tightened further throughout the summer and into early fall because of several hurricanes that made landfall in Louisiana and Florida, which reduced production from Mosaic and producer Nutrien's facilities. Higher phosphate values, lower crop prices and the resulting deterioration in affordability in the last six months of 2024 compared to 2023 deterred farmer buying interest. Some US buyers bought more triple superphosphate (TSP) throughout the summer as it became more economically appealing for the fall despite its lower nutrient content relative to MAP or DAP. The overall disinterest from farmers to use phosphate products this fall left higher-than-expected inventories across the Corn Belt that will carry over into next year and likely alleviate supply concerns along the Mississippi River for this spring. The US for the 2024/25 fertilizer year so far has imported less DAP and MAP compared with previous years, likely a result of poor affordability and farmer disinterest. Roughly 762,000 metric tonnes (t) of combined DAP and MAP were imported into the US from July through October, down from 34pc for the same period during the 2023/24 fertilizer year and 3pc lower than the five-year-average, according to US Census Bureau data. The absence of Moroccan producer OCP's phosphate products will continue to tighten US market fundamentals for the 2024/25 fertilizer year. The US Department of Commerce recently raised the phosphate import duty for OCP to 16.8pc from a preliminary rate of 14.2pc for calendar year 2022 and forward if it goes unchallenged. But most domestic buyers have been able to source product from elsewhere, like Jordan, Australia and Saudi Arabia. The US market also imported nearly 290,000t of TSP from July through October. That was 30pc higher than a year earlier and 70pc higher than the five-year-average, reflecting its recent appeal as a more affordable product. Affordability remains a headwind for demand in the spring as well. Based on the ratio between select phosphate barge prices and corn futures, farmer purchasing power for DAP and MAP has weakened throughout 2024 compared with 2023. This forces farmers to sell more of their crops to afford a ton of phosphate fertilizer. Market participants expect spring demand in 2025 to be lower than the robust demand seen last spring and for the market to be well supplied as a result. "Unless a big run on phosphate happens [this spring], we are looking at more supply than people know what to do with," one seller relayed. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Brazil may face road bottleneck in 1Q

23/12/24

Viewpoint: Brazil may face road bottleneck in 1Q

Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — The Brazilian soybean harvest and fertilizer deliveries for the country's 2024-25 second corn crop will likely drive first-quarter grain and fertilizer road freight rates higher. Grain freight rates have been unusually low in 2024 because lower international soybean prices discouraged producers from doing business in most months. But market participants expect greater demand for transportation services in export corridors in 2025, as an expected record 2024-25 harvest combines with a US dollar that has strengthening against the Brazilian real, driving export demand. Brazil will produce 166.2mn metric tonnes (t) of soybeans in the 2024-25 cycle, an increase of almost 13pc from the previous season, according to national supply company Conab's third official estimate for the cycle. The 2024-25 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest producer — will total 44mn t, also 13pc above 2023-24 production, according to the state's institute of agricultural economics Imea. Mato Grosso's soybean planting pace for 2024-25 has fluctuated significantly over the growing season, initially advancing slowly because of dry weather, and then speeding up once rains returned. Planting was complete on only 25pc of the almost 12.7mn hectares (ha) expected for the cycle by 18 October, less than the 60pc reached at the same time in 2023 for the 2023-24 cycle. But planting increased by 68.6 percentage points in the following three weeks, totaling 93.7pc by 8 November. As a result, more than half of the soybean planted area in Mato Grosso was carried out in the same three week period. That raises concerns among market participants about high competition for export transportation and available vehicles when all those crops become ready for harvest at the same time, resulting in a logistical bottleneck. Market participants expect lower freight rates for exports during the 2024-25 second corn harvest, set to take place in the second half of 2025. Demand from the Brazilian domestic market will remain at a consistently high level, especially from ethanol units, whose demand for corn was high in 2024, as prices carried a premium to the export market, and also contributed to lower export volumes. This should lead to lower grain freight rates during the second half of 2025, with a significant portion of grain destined to meet the Brazilian industry's needs. Corn ethanol production in Brazil is expected to total 7.2bn liters (124,865 b/d) in the 2024-25 cycle, a 22pc increase from 5.9bn l in the previous cycle, according to Conab. The company projects that 1t of corn can produce around 400l of ethanol, which means that approximately 18mn t of corn will be consumed by the ethanol industry. Brazil is expected to produce around 86.2mn t of animal feed in 2024, 2.3pc more than it did in 2023, according to the sector's national union Sindiracoes. This should stimulate demand for about 55mn t of corn for all animal feed production expected this year. Animal feed production is expected to grow further in 2025 to 87.8mn t. Ferts freight rates may also increase Fertilizer transportation may face logistical bottlenecks to move inputs from ports to crops in early 2025 because of the slow pace of fertilizer purchases, especially nitrogen, for the 2024-25 second corn harvest. With the purchase window coming to a close by the end of December, market participants estimate that these nutrients have to arrive at Brazilian ports by early January, so that they can be transported in time for application during the grain harvest. That may also increase competition for vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, especially in January, when the supply of trucks is reduced following end-of-year festivities. Under these circumstances, higher fertilizer freight rates and higher costs for road logistics are expected. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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