Trump tariff could hit Canada potash to US

: Fertilizers
24/11/27

US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico could increase potash prices in the US.

Trump said Monday via social media that he would he would slap 25pc tariffs on all products from the two neighboring countries (https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2632483) after he takes office on 20 January.

For the US fertilizer market, the greatest potential impact would be on potash.

Canada provided 87pc of all US potash imports at 11.7mn metric tonnes in the fertilizer year ended in June, according to US Census Bureau data.

The potential tariffs put Canadian suppliers in a tight spot. They could cut prices to mitigate importers' higher costs. Or they could hold prices steady to maintain netbacks but risk losing sales in the US market on which they rely and have extensive distribution networks.

US Corn Belt MOP prices have dropped to around $300/st fot in November. With a 25pc tariff added on, importers would need to sell MOP at $375/st fot to receive the same margins. Canadian producers could also eat some of the tariff cost, as they have limited alternative markets for US volumes.

The overall impact remains unclear and "too early to tell," according to market participants. One potential sign of the tariff threat taking effect would be if US buyers move up winter fill buying to December to get ahead of the 20 January deadline.

Canada could retaliate with its own tariffs, just as Mexico has said it would consider. Trump, who used tariff negotiations as a negotiation tactic in his first presidential term, could also end up exempting fertilizer products from his proposed tariffs, according to market participants.

By Meghan Yoyotte

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Roof collapse halts MOP output at Mosaic facility

24/11/25

Roof collapse halts MOP output at Mosaic facility

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Genesis hires designer for Sask. low-carbon NH3 plant

24/11/25

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Clean NH3 integration needs CoC methods: Hinicio

24/11/25

Clean NH3 integration needs CoC methods: Hinicio

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Bangladesh issues new phosphate tenders

24/11/22

Bangladesh issues new phosphate tenders

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