A slowdown in shale deals in recent months is set to be reversed next year, helped in part by speculation that oil and gas mergers will have an easier time getting anti-trust approval under president-elect Donald Trump.
The $12bn in upstream deals recorded in the third quarter was the lowest tally since the first three months of 2023, just before a record-breaking streak that reshaped the shale landscape and was dominated by blockbuster transactions involving ExxonMobil and Chevron. While buyers have been focused on winning approval from a zealous regulator and pushing deals over the finish line, attention is turning to the billions of dollars of unwanted assets they are likely to want to offload, with companies from ExxonMobil to Occidental Petroleum already active on this front. "You do one of these mega-mergers and now you have to pay for it," law firm Hogan Lovells partner Niki Roberts says. "You pay for it by selling off all the stuff you didn't really want to begin with."
One potential upside from the Trump administration may be less attention from the Federal Trade Commission, which has paid closer scrutiny to oil deals in recent months as it cracks down on anti-competitive behaviour. Tie-ups have been delayed while the regulator has sought more details, and two high-profile oil executives were barred from the boards of their acquirers as a condition of approving deals.
"The antitrust regulators have been viewed by particularly the traditional oil and gas industry of late as not being friendly to that industry," law firm Sidley global leader of energy, transport and infrastructure Cliff Vrielink says. "You're going to see less resistance to consolidation and you're going to see more people pursuing those opportunities."
Oil market volatility has hampered mergers and acquisitions in the past, but observers say price swings are less of a factor these days. And more deals are needed to help companies boost their inventory of drilling locations for as long as cash flow remains king and growing through the drillbit is challenged. Lower interest rates, controlled inflation and regulatory reforms all point to a "robust" M&A market, Sidley partner Stephen Boone says. The majority of deal-making has been focused on oil in recent years, but natural gas is "having a bit of a moment", aided by the surge in demand from a boom in energy-hungry US data centres that are developing and supporting artificial intelligence, Boone says.
Privates on parade
Private equity is also making a gradual comeback, with teams looking to deploy fresh capital in oil and gas. Quantum Capital Group raised over $10bn in October and EnCap Investments has reloaded with about $6.4bn. "We are just now getting back to pre-pandemic levels of commitment," Boone says. "That bodes towards probably more private equity involvement in the oil and gas space."
Fierce competition to get a foothold in the prized Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico has sent valuations soaring, and prompted some would-be buyers to look further afield to plays such as the Uinta in Utah and North Dakota's Bakken. "The Permian stays of interest to many because of its consistent returns, but the Permian is a crowded place right now, and so I do think we'll see development of other basins," Roberts says. "But it's all going to depend on price."
Close to $300bn in upstream deals were signed in the US over the past two years and this has whittled down the list of remaining targets. But the largest producers may not be done when it comes to seeking out potential acquisitions. "We don't stop looking," ConocoPhillips vice-president and treasurer Konnie Haynes-Welsh told the Rice Energy Finance Summit on 15 November. "We're always looking to be opportunistic."
