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US Army Corps proposes new Illinois River lock

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Crude oil, Fertilizers, Freight, Oil products
  • 18/12/24

The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) has proposed a new lock to replace the LaGrange Lock and Dam (L&D) near Beardstown, Illinois, as part of the Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program (NESP).

The project would be the first new lock for NESP, a program that invests in infrastructure along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers. The new 1,200ft proposed LaGrange Lock would allow for passage of more barges in a single lockage, instead of having to split the tow in two with the current 600ft LaGrange Lock. At the moment, most tows trying to pass through the LaGrange lock experience multiple hour delays.

The new LaGrange lock would have an estimated cost of $20mn, with a construction timeline of five years. The project area would be located on the west bank of the Illinois River near the 85-year old LaGrange L&D, encompassing 425 acres. Real estate acquisition, design plans and contractors are already in place, said the Corps. The current LaGrange lock would remain in operation and become an auxiliary chamber.

The Corps opened the upcoming project to public comments on 11 December and will close on 3 January.

NESP has four other projects along the Mississippi River. Another full lock construction project is anticipated for Lock and Dam 25.


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Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on base oils market


18/12/24
18/12/24

Viewpoint: Ample supply to weigh on base oils market

London, 18 December (Argus) — European base oil prices are likely to fall further in 2025 on a persistent global supply overhang of Group III material and weaker demand for Group I spot supplies. European Group III spot prices with varying approvals face downwards pressure as overseas producers target European buyers supported by attractive margins and ample spot supplies. Stricter emission standards and engine oil specifications have supported a switch towards more premium base oils such as Group II and III away from Group I production, which is in long-term decline. Prices for fca northwest Europe (NWE) Group III 4cst and 6cst supplies with partial or no approvals fell by 16pc and 13pc to €1,125/t and €1,185/t, respectively on the week ending 13 December 2024, the lowest levels since April 2021. Rising Chinese domestic Group III production capacity has slashed the country's requirements for supplies from South Korea and the Mideast Gulf, incentivising suppliers to look towards the European market. Buying appetite for tenders out of Bahrain has also increased and spot supplies have arrived at more competitive levels. This has spurred other suppliers to lower offers further as they look to remain competitive and claim market share before the conclusion of upcoming Group III refinery expansions in 2025. The Mideast Gulf has an estimated Group III production capacity of 2mn t/yr. This is set to increase with state-controlled Saudi Aramco's base oil subsidiary Luberef focusing on expansion projects at its Yanbu facility . This will increase nameplate capacity by 76.2pc, to approximately 1.3mn t/yr of base oils by 2025. Europe remains the most attractive export outlet owing to smaller Group III production capacity in comparison to other regions. Europe has an estimated nameplate base oil capacity of 7mn t/yr, of which 13pc is Group III. A shift away from Group III imports in the US has further supported Mideast and South Korean suppliers to redirect supplies from this region and towards Europe. An announcement by Shell to convert its hydrocracker at its 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in west Germany into a Group III base oil production unit looks to increase domestic output by 300,000t/yr. But production is only anticipated to begin in 2026-2028, leaving European buyers mostly dependent on imports in 2025. European demand has plummeted thanks to amply supply levels — leading to a continuous wait-and-see approach from traders as they anticipate prices to fall further. Participants have reported term contracts finalised at price levels well below year ago levels and anticipate spot prices in 2025 to drop as a result. European Group I nameplate capacity has fallen by 55pc over the last decade to around 4mn t/yr owing to refinery closures, according to Argus calculations. In 2024, Eni's Group I 600,000 t/yr Livorno unit shut, and there were several refinery fires and outages elsewhere in Europe. But despite tighter spot supplies, prices fell because of weaker demand. Demand is anticipated to fall further in 2025 as producers prioritise output of more premium base oil. This includes Polish firm Orlen's Gdansk refinery expansion , adding a group II base oil unit with an estimated capacity of 400,000t/yr of Group II. Exxonmobil also announced that it will produce a high-viscosity Group II alternative to the Group I bright stock grade by 2025 out of its Jurong refinery in Singapore. Bright stock currently has no alternative, which supports its production. But Exxon's announcement is likely to weigh on refinery output and shrink the Group I market further. By Christian Hotten Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Element Alpha wins Dec Pakistan NRL bitumen sell tender


18/12/24
18/12/24

Element Alpha wins Dec Pakistan NRL bitumen sell tender

London, 18 December (Argus) — Pakistani refiner NRL has awarded its latest single cargo bitumen sell tender to Switzerland-based trading firm Element Alpha, after withdrawing its two previous tenders for October and November loading dates. Unlike in the previous tenders, which specified 6,000t of pen 60/70 bitumen to be loaded at Karachi's Port Qasim port, NRL has on this occasion agreed to sell a 4,500t bulk bitumen cargo of the same penetration grade to Element Alpha at a price in the $370-380/t fob Karachi range, sources involved the tender process said. International bitumen market participants said the cargo is expected to be loaded on the 5,249dwt Bitumen Kosei in the 20-30 December timeframe. The tanker is making its way towards Pakistan having delivered a cargo to Durban, South Africa, that had been loaded at Bahraini state-owned refiner Bapco's Sitra refinery and export terminal. International trading firms said Pakistani exports need to be price competitive with Bahraini exports in particular to be attractive, and that gaps between bids into NRL's October and November tenders for 6,000t cargoes and values sought by the exporter had contributed to their non-awards. Pakistan has become a growing source for cargo flows into South Africa over the past year or so, vying with supplies from the Mideast Gulf and with European Mediterranean flows shipped around west Africa. The last monthly NRL tender to have been awarded was a 6,000t cargo in the $390-400/t fob Karachi range under its September offering that went to an international trading firm . By Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISCC sets shipping, aviation green fuels PoC framework


18/12/24
18/12/24

ISCC sets shipping, aviation green fuels PoC framework

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Viewpoint: European tanker rates meander into 2025


18/12/24
18/12/24

Viewpoint: European tanker rates meander into 2025

London, 18 December (Argus) — European Medium Range (MR) and Handysize tanker rates are set to remain subdued in 2025 as a continued shortfall in US gasoline demand and west Africa's growing independence from imports leaves MRs with little to do. Europe has become increasingly able to survive on domestic gasoline production in 2024, because of modest economic growth and frequent refinery maintenance procedures. This has kept prices high and made gasoline less competitive in export markets, which could be set to continue in 2025, potentially keeping exports in line with 2024. European gasoline exports on MRs to the US in 2024 dropped to the lowest since 2020. The average in the January-November period was just 206,000 b/d, down from 226,000 b/d in all of 2023 and almost as low as 193,000 b/d in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports in 2025 will probably remain close to 2024. This drop pushed MR rates to the lowest since 2021, although they have not yet moved back to the levels that were standard before the Russia-Ukraine war and associated sanctions, which led to sweeping changes in the tanker market in 2021. The 2024-average rate between the UK Continent and US Atlantic coast was $26.67/t, down from $32.63/t in 2023 and $37.94/t in 2021. But this was still significantly above the 2019 level of $19.30/t. The time charter equivalent (TCE) rate — a measure of the money a shipowner generates after fuel and other costs — on the route was around $13,250/t in 2024, which was above shipowners' typical operating cost of $5,000-7,000/d. Rates in 2025 seem likely to hew closely to 2024 levels as gasoline fundamentals in Europe and the US serve to limit the transatlantic trade. In Europe, a high amount of planned and unplanned refinery maintenance and domestic consumption served to keep European gasoline prices comparatively high and limited US demand. At the same time, US production of gasoline increased, making it less reliant on imports. This has been particularly apparent in the fourth quarter of 2024 when European gasoline exports hit a 52 month low and 2025 will probably see the same pattern. In west Africa, the second key MR market, the 650,000 b/d capacity Dangote refinery in Nigeria is now producing gasoil and gasoline, which led to a decline in spot MR demand from Europe. Dangote is yet to operate at full capacity but continues to ramp up and west Africa will become increasingly able to cover demand with domestically-produced clean products. This will mean the MR market in 2025 will be focused almost exclusively on the slowing Europe to US route, which will keep rates under significant pressure. Diesel doldrums depress LR2s Long Range 2 (LR2)-sized diesel/gasoil rates into Europe should have hit a peak in 2024 as tankers had to divert around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks from Yemen-based Houthis in the Red Sea, and the Mideast Gulf remained Europe's primary diesel supplier. But instead the market slumped and this trend seems set to continue in 2025. The fourth quarter in particular has been lacklustre with rates half of what they were at the same point in 2023. European diesel imports are particularly subject to east Asian naphtha demand, as both trades compete for tankers in the Mideast Gulf. East Asian naphtha demand has been slow and is set to remain so in 2025 as downstream margins have weakened far enough that many of the region's refineries have shuttered operations temporarily. At the same time, several very large crude carrier (VLCC)-sized diesel shipments on the route in August boosted European inventories and stunted demand through the third and fourth quarters. European importers switch to US MR-sized diesel cargoes when LR2 freight rates rise, which will again create a ceiling for LR2 rates in 2025. By Erika Tsirikou Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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