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Japan’s flexible energy plan poses unpredictable risk

  • Spanish Market: Coal, Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen, Natural gas
  • 20/12/24

An uncertain energy transition demands a range of policy options, but makes investment planning harder,

The Japanese government has addressed the uncertainty facing its new energy mix goal for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year by drafting multiple plans to tackle concerns over the future development of clean energy technologies. But the wide range of targets could also reduce predictability and complicate the country's energy strategy toward its 2050 net zero emissions goal.

The new power mix goal will be the centrepiece of Japan's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), which is due to be updated before the end of March 2025. The SEP must be reviewed every three years, and the previous one was formulated in 2021, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine refocused Tokyo's discussion on how to prioritise energy security, decarbonisation and economic growth.

The latest review of the SEP has totally changed from the previous one, said Yoshifumi Murase, a commissioner of Japanese trade and industry ministry Meti's natural resources and energy agency, noting that Tokyo will take a flexible approach to its power mix goal while facing uncertainties that include a risk scenario for innovation failures. Meti has not disclosed details of these scenarios.

The draft 2040-41 power mix entails renewable energy making up 40-50pc of the country's power generation, up from 22.9pc in 2023-24 (see table). By contrast, Tokyo plans to curb the thermal share to around 30-40pc from 68.6pc over the period. Meti has refrained from disclosing a breakdown for thermal fuels for now, as the ratio of each will vary depending on technological developments in hydrogen, ammonia and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

But the absence of a breakdown for thermal power targets could weigh on private-sector investment plans, warns one committee member. "[Technological] uncertainty does exist, but the industry can hardly invest without predictability," said Tatsuya Terazawa, chairman of the government-affiliated think-tank the Institute of Energy Economics Japan. Tokyo is supposed to increase predictability for investors with specific measures for each thermal fuel on the table, he added.

Long-term uncertainty

The ambiguous target also makes it difficult to map out Japan's long-term fuel procurement, especially for LNG, which would play a role in ensuring power generation flexibility alongside the growing share of solar and wind. Japan has faced falling long-term LNG supplies as previous SEPs that promoted renewables and the liberalisation of the retail power market disincentivised the industry to extend contracts. Japanese gas demand is expected to fall in the base scenario, but increase in the risk scenario, Teiko Kudo, deputy president of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, said. It would be important to show the maximum volume of gas Japan may need within a specific period in the next SEP, she said.

The issue of fuel security may be further exacerbated if Japan's planned return of nuclear reactors is delayed. Under the draft power mix for 2040-41, nuclear accounts for around 20pc, up from 8.5pc in 2023-24. But it is still uncertain how many reactors will be operational by then because of safety concerns over Japan's nuclear power sector since the 2011 Fukushima meltdown. The new SEP has made some progress, allowing nuclear power operators who had decommissioned reactors to build next generation reactors at their nuclear sites, not limited to the same site. The previous SEP did not mention building new reactors or replacements.

The 2040-41 power mix aligns with a 73pc greenhouse gas emission reduction goal by 2040-41 based on 2013-14 levels. The new emissions target is currently under discussion, ahead of Japan's submission of its updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the UN Climate Change secretariat by February 2025. Power mix goals could be revised depending on the final NDC, Meti said.

Japan's power mix goal%
FY23FY30FY40
Power generation TWh9859341,100-1,200
Renewable22.936-3840-50
Solar9.814-1622-29
Wind1.15.04-8
Hydroelectric7.611.08-10
Geothermal0.31.01-2
Biomass4.15.05-6
Nuclear8.520-2220
Thermal68.641.030-40
LNGNA20NA
CoalNA19NA
OilNA2NA
Hydrogen/ammoniaNA1.0NA
FY23: actual ratio (preliminary), FY30: confirmed goal, FY40: draft goal

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15/05/25

Verkehrssektor verfehlt Klimaziele

Verkehrssektor verfehlt Klimaziele

Hamburg, 15 May (Argus) — Der Verkehrssenktor hat sein Emissionsreduktionsziel in 2024 verfehlt. Dies geht aus dem Prüfbericht des Expertenrats für Klimafragen hervor. Branchenverbände des Kraftstoffmarktes nutzen den Bericht als Appell an die Bundesregierung. Laut des Berichtes vom 15. April hat der Verkehrssektor in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 rund 143 Mio. t CO2-Äquivalent emittiert. Dies stellt einen Rückgang um etwa 1,4 % gegenüber dem Vorjahr dar und entspricht etwa dem Rückgang der Emissionen von 2022 zu 2023. Ursprünglich sollte der Verkehrssektor eine Reduzierung auf 125,2 Mio. t CO2e erzielen. Entsprechend wurde diese Zielmarke um knapp 18 Mio. t CO2e überschritten. Insgesamt ist der Verkehrssektor für 9 % der bundesweiten Emissionen verantwortlich, so der Expertenrat. Dabei sei ein Großteil des Rückgangs auf den Bereich schwerer Fahrzeuge wie LKW und Busse zurückzuführen. Die Emissionen des privaten Personenverkehrs sind konstant geblieben. Der geringe Emissionsrückgang ist laut Expertenrat auf die mangelnde strukturelle Entwicklung im Verkehrssektor sowie der anhaltenden Dominanz fossiler Antriebsarten zurückzuführen. Außerdem soll die Verkehrsleistung von PKW zugenommen haben. Die daraus resultierenden Mehremissionen seien jedoch aufgrund des im Vergleich zum Vorjahr höheren Bestand an batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugen ein Stück weit ausgeglichen worden. Auch das geringe Wirtschaftswachstum hat zum Emissionsrückgang beigetragen. Die neue Bundesregierung hat im Koalitionsvertrag bestätigt, am Anstieg der THG-Quote festzuhalten. Dies soll Inverkehrbringer von Kraftstoffen dazu anregen, mehr emissionsärmere Kraftstoffe anstelle von fossilen in Verkehr zu bringen. Der Branchenverband Uniti begrüßt dieses Vorhaben zwar, mahnt jedoch an, dass diese Maßnahmen nicht ausreichen würden, um den Markthochlauf der erneuerbaren und alternativen Kraftstoffen voranzutreiben. Der Verband fordert die Regierung auf, sich auf europäischer Ebene für eine Anpassung der CO2-Flottenregulierung einsetzen. Diese berücksichtigt bei der Ermittlung der Emissionen nicht etwaige Einsparungen bei der Produktion des Kraftstoffes, sondern nur die tatsächlichen Emissionen im Betrieb. Von Max Steinhau Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

UK establishes public energy company


15/05/25
15/05/25

UK establishes public energy company

London, 15 May (Argus) — The UK parliament has passed a bill establishing a publicly owned energy company, Great British Energy (GBE), to support the nation's renewable energy ambitions. The company, funded with £8.3bn ($11.02bn) over the current parliamentary term, aims to accelerate renewable energy projects, enhance energy security, and support job creation, the department for energy security and net zero (Desnz) announced on Thursday. GBE will invest in clean energy initiatives, including technologies such as floating offshore wind, and collaborate with private companies to expand renewable energy capacity. The government states the company will help stabilise energy costs by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. The bill includes £200mn for renewable energy projects, such as rooftop solar for schools, hospitals, and communities. It has also committed £300mn to develop the UK's offshore wind supply chain, supporting manufacturing of components such as cables and platforms. The legislation received approval from the devolved governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, enabling GBE to operate across the UK. Desnz secretary of state Ed Miliband is expected to outline GBE's strategic priorities "soon", specifying technology focus areas and investment criteria. The government sees GBE as a key part of its plan to transition to clean energy and stimulate economic growth through a "modern industrial strategy", it said. Industry body Energy UK welcomed the bill's passage. "[GBE] can play a vital role in making the government's clean energy ambitions a reality by attracting extra private sector investment," chief executive Dhara Vyas said. By Timothy Santonastaso Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Greece’s Alexandroupolis LNG off line until mid-Aug


15/05/25
15/05/25

Greece’s Alexandroupolis LNG off line until mid-Aug

London, 15 May (Argus) — Greece's 4.3mn t/yr Alexandroupolis LNG import terminal will remain off line until 15 August, after which it will return to 25pc of capacity for the remainder of the gas year, an updated urgent market message (UMM) from operator Gastrade says. The terminal has been off line since 28 January because of damage to the booster pumps on the floating storage and regasification unit, Gastrade said, and it will remain fully unavailable until 15 August, after which onward regasification services will resume capped at 25pc of maximum capacity, or about 42 GWh/d, with available redundancy for the booster pumps. This availability will be offered for 15 August-30 September only under "certain operational and commercial conditions", Gastrade specified, and several market participants were unsure of what this phrase meant or whether regasification would in fact be possible at all during this period. From the start of the new gas year on 1 October, the 25pc cap will be lifted, but "certain operation constraints may remain for a limited period of time", the operator said. The previous version of the the UMM listed the shutdown end date as 15 May, although Gastrade had already told Argus in April that it did not expect to return to full operations until October . By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

SEFE sells only 900GWh of Rehden gas storage space


15/05/25
15/05/25

SEFE sells only 900GWh of Rehden gas storage space

London, 15 May (Argus) — German gas storage operator Sefe sold less than a fifth of the capacity on offer at its Rehden site in an auction on Thursday — the first capacity sold at the site for the current storage year. Sefe offered 5TWh and received bids in excess of this, but said it allocated only 900GWh, suggesting most bids were below its reserve price. German THE prices for delivery over the remainder of the summer, including the balance-of-May market, closed €2.08/MWh below the following winter price and €2.18/MWh below the first-quarter 2026 price on Wednesday. The 900GWh was the first allocated space at the site for the current storage year, after one unsuccessful auction in January and one last week. The German government last month halved the mandatory fill level at the site to 45pc by 1 November. Now there is capacity booked, there might be scope for Rehden not to be fully emptied, given that there is still 1.1TWh of gas in the 45TWh site. There is a two-month period during which capacity holders can withdraw their gas after the beginning of the storage year, and withdrawals have continued at the site since 1 April. Sefe said it will publish further details on upcoming auctions for the capacity not yet marketed "in a timely manner". Injections at Rehden would have to start by 17 August to meet the 45pc mandate, according to Argus calculations, factoring in 18.5 days of maintenance in October. Under the previous 90pc mandate, injections would have had to start before the end of May, taking Rehden's injection curve into account. By Till Stehr Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France consults on expanded biofuels mandate


15/05/25
15/05/25

France consults on expanded biofuels mandate

London, 15 May (Argus) — France has opened consultation on the transposition of part of the recast renewable energy directive (RED III) into national law, which would replace the current system with a new one called "incentive for the reduction of the carbon intensity of fuels" (IRICC). The proposal introduces two separate sets of requirements for transport fuels. The first is for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, broken down by transport sectors — road, aviation, maritime, LPG and natural gas for vehicles, which could be CNG or LNG (see table). In the current draft, the GHG reduction target for the road sector will start at 5.9pc in 2026, rising to 10.6pc in 2030 and 18.7pc in 2035. For aviation, the target starts at 2.5pc in 2026, rising to 5.8pc in 2030 and 18.8pc in 2035. The GHG mandate levels include a gradual phasing-in of new fuel sectors – river and maritime fuels, fuel gasses, and aviation. To meet the overall RED III target of 14.5pc emissions reduction by 2030, the national French target includes the biofuels mandates, a share for rail transport, and a share or private vehicle charging. The second set of requirements is a renewable fuel requirement by energy content, which is broken down by fuel type — diesel, gasoline, LPG and natural gas fuels and marine fuel (see table). The blending requirements for diesel start at 9pc in 2026, rising to 11.4pc in 2030 and 16pc in 2035. For gasoline, the mandates start at 9.5pc in 2026, rising to 10.5pc in 2030 and 14.5pc in 2035. Finally, the proposal includes a set of sub-mandates for advanced fuels and renewable hydrogen . The advanced biofuels mandate would start at 0.7pc in 2026, rising to 1.95pc in 2030 and 2.6pc in 2035. Users of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) would not be subject to the advanced sub-mandate. In feedstock restrictions, the crop cap will rise to 7pc from 6.2pc in 2030 and 2035, while the limit for fuels made from feedstocks found in Annex IX-B of RED will be at 0.6pc in 2026, 0.7pc in 2030 and 1pc in 2035 for diesel and petrol. Aviation fuel will not have a IX-B cap until 2030, and from then it will be 6pc. Mandate compliance would be managed by a certificate system through the CarbuRe registry, with a compliance deadline of 1 March the following year. Public electric vehicle charging would also generate tickets, although the amount of tickets generated by charging light passenger vehicles would be reduced from 2031 to reach 50pc in 2035. Renewable hydrogen used in transport would also generate tickets counting towards the hydrogen sub-quota and reduce the overall GHG savings requirement. Public charging stations will start generating fewer tickets for electric passenger vehicles from 2031 to 50pc by 2035. France is also considering steep penalties for non-compliance, at €700/t CO2 not avoided for the GHG reduction requirement and at €40/GJ for the fuel targets. The penalty for not meeting hydrogen and advanced fuel sub-targets would be doubled, at €80/GJ. The consultation is open for comments until 10 June. By Simone Burgin Proposed GHG reduction by transport sector % 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Road and non-road diesel 5.9 7.1 8.3 9.5 10.6 13.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 Aviation 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.8 8.4 10.8 13.3 15.9 18.7 RFNBO sub-target (% en.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 Maritime 2.5 3.25 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.5 RFNBO sub-target (% en.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 LPG and natural gas fuels 0.0 0.0 2.7 6.3 10.6 13.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 DGEC Proposed energy content mandate by fuel type % (en.) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Diesel 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.9 16.0 Petrol 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.5 Natural gas fuels 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 12.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 21.0 LPG 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 12.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 21.0 Marine fuel 2.9 3.8 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.2 9.4 11.8 14.1 17.1 DGEC Proposed caps and sub-targets % (en.) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Feedstock caps Crop feedstocks 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Annex IX-B feedstocks* 0.6 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 1.0 Cat. 3 tallow 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Tall oil 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.2 Fuel sub-targets Advanced feedstocks 0.7 0.95 1.25 1.6 1.95 2.0 2.1 2.25 2.4 2.6 RFNBOs/Renewable hydrogen 0.05 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 *For diesel and petrol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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