Viewpoint: Bearish year ahead for NOx markets

Spanish Market: Electricity, Emissions
30/12/24

The Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) NOx allowance markets will likely face a bearish year in 2025, as the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump creates uncertainty over the fate of the latest federal regulation to curb emissions.

The US Supreme Court halted implementation of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) "good neighbor" plan in June with a nationwide stay. This left an already stunted regulation to cut NOx emissions, a precursor to harmful ground-level ozone, obsolete for the foreseeable future.

EPA finalized a plan in March 2023 to help downwind states meet the 2015 national air quality standards by setting tighter ozone season NOx caps on power plants covered by CSPAR as well as new limits for industrial facilities in more than 20 upwind states.

But by the time the justices issued the stay, the number of covered states had already shrunk by more than half because of lower-court orders pausing implementation in 12 states.

Prices for seasonal NOx allowances have flatlined and the market has been illiquid over much of 2024 because of uncertainty over how numerous legal challenges against the good neighbor plan would play out. Argus has assessed Group 2 allowances at $775/short ton (st) and Group 3 allowances at a record low $1,250/st since January.

This could change, albeit at a slow pace, because EPA finalized an interim rule in November to comply with the nationwide stay. Power plants that had been covered by the good neighbor plan are now under less-stringent NOx budgets tied to older air quality standards, and the 10 states that had been participating in the Group 3 market prior to the stay are now reshuffled into Group 2 and a separate 12-state "expanded" Group 2 market.

All that remains is… uncertainty

In the new year, the market will wait to see how the Trump administration will deal with the good neighbor plan and the associated legal challenges in the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit and the US Supreme Court.

Because of the stay, there is no hurry for the new administration to address the legal woes, and it is unlikely the DC Circuit will soon rule on the legality of EPA's rejection of state ozone reduction plans.

The Trump EPA, following precedent of prior administrations, will likely ask the court to pause litigation until it decides whether to continue defending the plan, according to Jeff Holmstead, assistant administrator at the agency under former president George W Bush.

The agency will likely revoke the plan at some point and replace it with a rule that is more "modest" and would not significantly affect allowance prices, he said.

The EPA under Trump could ultimately decide that upwind states do not significantly contribute to interstate pollution, reversing a determination that has underpinned the good neighbor plan.That could lead to downwind states asking the agency to address specific sources that contribute to their air quality problems, said Carrie Jenks, executive director of Harvard Law School's Environmental and Energy Law Program.

The Supreme Court is also hearing a case to decide the proper court venue for Clean Air Act disputes, which involves the good neighbor plan.

The Trump administration likely will agree with various states and industry groups that say EPA's rejections of individual state plans are not a "nationally applicable" action and must be litigated in the regional circuit courts, but the Supreme Court is likely to continue the venue case, Jenks said. Oral arguments will likely be held early next year.

It is also unclear how Lee Zeldin, Trump's pick to lead EPA will affect the regulation. Zeldin is a moderate, given his history, and will likely "not want to impose significant new burdens on fossil fuel power plants", Holmstead said.

Trump's plans to downsize the federal bureaucracy could also affect future rulemakings, according to Jenks.

"Nobody really knows what's going to happen," she said.

As a result, market activity is likely to remain limited in the coming months as participants await legal and regulatory clarity.

In addition, markets are likely to be oversupplied now that power plants are under lighter NOx caps. Most states in the seasonal NOx markets were well below their limits for the 2024 ozone season, despite a 9.2pc increase in cumulative emissions in the expanded Group 2.

EPA will also allow some power plants to convert vintage 2021-23 Group 3 allowances to Group 2 or expanded Group 2 allowances, adding to supply.

With low demand and a potential oversupply, seasonal NOx allowances could see prices fall .

By Ida Balakrishna

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25/04/25

NYC comptroller sets net zero investment standards

Houston, 25 April (Argus) — New York City's top financial officer this week issued standards that will be used to evaluate investment plans for the city's retirement systems that aim to meet net zero goals. Comptroller Brad Lander adopted a "Net Zero Implementation Plan" in 2022 requiring public markets asset managers, who manage funds for New York City's retirement systems, to submit investment plans that work towards achieving net zero by 2040 to his office by 30 June. Earlier this month, his office announced that the city's pension systems lowered their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37pc and achieved their interim climate goals one year early , with much of that decline driven by divestment of fossil fuel reserve owners. Under the standards released on 22 April, asset managers should take into account climate-related investment risks in their decision-making and work with portfolio companies to promote "real economy decarbonization." In addition, asset managers must require portfolio companies to report and set goals to reduce their scope 1 and 2 emissions — direct emissions from sources owned by the company and from electricity purchases, respectively — as well as scope 3 emissions, or indirect supply chain emissions. Investment plans must also include short-, medium-, and long-term goals to reach net zero and ensure that future capital expenditures and lobbying align with those goals. For plans that do not meet those standards, Lander will recommend to "put those managers' investment mandates out to bid , " or begin a lengthy procurement process to contract new asset managers to manage those funds. "Our new standards demand that the retirement systems' managers strengthen their Net Zero plans consistent with their fiduciary duty — or we will find new asset managers who will," Lander said. The New York City Comptroller oversees five public pension funds which together form the fourth largest public pension plan in the US, with about $285bn in assets that are managed by external investment managers contracted by the city. Lander said that threats from the federal government, including efforts to halt offshore wind , as well as President Donald Trump's executive order targeting state and local climate policy, would affect the city's ability to lower emissions and were a major reason for issuing the net zero standards. New York City's pension systems have goals of investing $1.8-19bn in "climate change solutions" by 2035. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Kurdish gas plans may boost Iraqi oil exports

25/04/25

Kurdish gas plans may boost Iraqi oil exports

Dubai, 25 April (Argus) — Plans for a significant increase in natural gas production in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region over the next 18 months could not only help address the country's chronic power shortages but also enable Baghdad to boost its oil exports. The Pearl Petroleum consortium — which comprises Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas, Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum, Austria's OMV, Hungary's Mol, and Germany's RWE — aims to increase gas production capacity in Kurdistan to 825mn ft³/d by the end of next year, representing a more than 50pc increase from current output. The plan involves expanding the capacity of the region's sole gas-producing field, Khor Mor, to 750mn ft³/d by the first quarter of 2026, and adding up to 75mn ft³/d from the Chemchemal field by the end of 2026. According to a source at Pearl, the development of Chemchemal is a key priority for the companies, as it is believed to have reservoirs comparable to those of Khor Mor. Under a 2019 agreement, the additional gas from the expansion project will be sold to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for a 20-year term, which should help eliminate the region's frequent power outages, particularly during peak summer months when demand for air conditioning is high. The Kurdistan region will also be well-positioned to supply any excess gas to the rest of Iraq. The federal government in Baghdad had previously approved a plan to import approximately 100mn ft³/d of gas from Khor Mor to power a 620MW plant in Kirkuk province, but no formal agreement has been signed to date. "The federal ministry of electricity and Crescent Petroleum have already met to finalise the agreement, which is ready for signature and awaiting implementation," the Pearl source said. "The infrastructure needed to support the sale of this quantity of gas is also in place." The plan has faced delays partly because of Iran's long-standing influence over Iraq and the potential impact such an agreement with the Kurdistan region could have on Baghdad's reliance on Iranian gas and power. However, the revival of US president Donald Trump's ‘maximum pressure' campaign against Tehran is forcing Baghdad to get serious about seeking alternative energy sources, with the Kurdistan region emerging as a viable option. Crude Export Boost Formalising the deal to import Kurdish gas would allow Baghdad to allocate more oil for export, as it would reduce the need to burn crude for power generation. Argus estimates that Iraq typically burns between 50,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d of crude in its power stations, depending on the season, and has recently increased imports of gasoil for power generation. By the time Iraqi Kurdistan has fully ramped up its additional gas capacity, Iraq's Opec+ crude output target will be 200,000 b/d higher than it is today, based on the group's latest production plans. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazilian wildfires burn 70pc less area in 1Q

23/04/25

Brazilian wildfires burn 70pc less area in 1Q

Sao Paulo, 23 April (Argus) — Wildfires in Brazil scorched an area almost equivalent to the size of Cyprus in January-March, but still 70pc less than in the same period in 2024 as the rainy season was above average in most of the north-central part of the country this year. The wildfires spread out over 912,900 hectares (ha) in the first three months of 2025, down from 2.1mn ha in the same period of 2024, according to environmental network MapBiomas' fire monitor researching program. The reduced burnt areas are related to the rainy season in most of the country, but still-high wildfire levels in the Cerrado biome showed that specific strategies are necessary for each biome to prevent further climate-related impacts, researchers said. The Cerrado lost 91,700ha to wildfires in the first quarter, up by 12pc from a year before and more than double from the average since 2019. Burnt areas in the Atlantic forest also increased 18,800ha in the period, up by 7pc from a year earlier. Wildfire-damaged areas in the southern Pampa biome, or low grasslands, grew by 1.4pc to 6,600ha. The Amazon biome lost over 774,000ha to wildfires in the first quarter of 2025, a 72pc drop from a year earlier, while it accounted for almost 52pc of burnt areas in March. The loss represented 84pc of the total burnt land in the period. Burnt areas in the central-western Pantanal biome, or tropical wetland, fell by 86pc in the first quarter to 10,900ha. The northeastern Caatinga biome, or seasonally dry tropical forest, lost around 10,000ha in burnt areas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024. Reductions may not persist as a drought season will begin in May and is expected to be severe, according to Mapbiomas. Last year, an extended drought season prompted burnt areas to grow by 79pc from 2023. Northern Roraima state was the state to suffer the most from wildfires in the period, with 415,700ha lost to wildfires during its distinct drought season in the beginning of the year, while other states faced a rainy season. Northern Para and northeastern Maranhao followed, with 208,600ha and 123,800ha of burnt areas, respectively. Wildfires hit over 24,730ha of soybean fields in the period, a 29pc decrease from a year earlier, while burnt areas in sugarcane fields fell by 31pc to around 7,280ha. Wildfires hit 106,600ha of the country in March, a 86pc decrease from 674,900ha a year earlier. By João Curi Burnt areas in March ha 2025 2024 Amazon 55,172 732,929 Cerrado 37,937 20,995 Atlantic Forest 9,262 4,509 Caatinga 2,296 755 Pampa 1,514 127 Pantanal 562 21,799 Total 106,641 781,114 — Mapbiomas - Monitor do fogo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US generators weigh delaying coal plant retirements

23/04/25

US generators weigh delaying coal plant retirements

New York, 23 April (Argus) — US utilities are considering additional extensions to coal plant retirements in response to recent policy changes, even though the benefit for the coal industry may be short-lived. US utilities are still mostly reviewing US president Donald Trump's executive orders issued earlier this month plus other actions initiated by his administration. One of the more concrete recent actions were the two-year exemptions from complying with updated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards granted to dozens of power plants on 15 April. But even though utilities had applied for these exemptions, the majority of those that spoke to Argus indicated they are still evaluating their options. "Granting a two-year compliance extension at Labadie and Sioux will enable Ameren Missouri to further refine its compliance strategy and optimize planned monitoring mechanisms to ensure accuracy," said Ameren Missouri director of environmental services Craig Giesmann. "We are committed to selecting cost-effective solutions that minimize the impact on customer rates." Ameren's 1,099MW Sioux plant is scheduled to be closed by 2028 and the 2,389MW Labadie plant has no concrete retirement date. Tennessee Valley Authority said it is "carefully reviewing" the mercury and air toxics exemptions "for how it might apply and benefit our efforts to support load growth across our seven-state region." The federal utility was granted exemptions for all of its coal facilities, including units of the Cumberland and Kingston plants that had been scheduled to close by the 1 July 2027 compliance deadline for the new mercury and air toxics standards. NRG Energy and Xcel Energy also said they are still considering how to proceed. "It will take our regulatory and environmental teams some time to evaluate and access the new guidelines, so we do not have any update to share at this time," NRG said. The utility was granted exemptions for four coal plants with a combined 7,092MW of capacity. None of these units currently has concrete retirement dates scheduled. Companies need to take into account other factors before committing to extending a coal unit's life, including natural gas price expectations and whether government regulations will stay in place. In addition, the planning process for retiring and adding generating assets takes time. These factors also are being taken into account by utilities that do not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but could be affected by other efforts the Trump administration is making to try to preserve coal generation. "Whatever impacts may arise from policy changes this year will be assessed in a future [Integrated Resource Plan], with the best analysis of information available at that time," utility PacifiCorp said. The utility just filed its latest integrated resource plan with state regulators on 31 March and does not expect to file another one until early 2027. Another utility that did not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but would be affected by other regulatory actions said it is considering extending coal unit operations by a few years. A US coal producer reported receiving increased inquiries from utilities about the feasibility of continuing to get coal supply beyond power plant units' planned retirement dates. Both buyers and sellers that talked to Argus agree that contract flexibility is gaining importance. But "even if you roll back some regulations and push deadlines on various retirements and certain requirements out into the future, you still can not justify taking more coal unless it is going to be competitive" with natural gas, one market participant said. While profit margins for dispatching coal in US electric grids were above natural gas spark spreads for a number of days this past winter, that was an anomaly when compared with recent years. Coal may bridge generating gap But recent policy changes could help utilities use coal generation to bridge any gaps in generating capacity caused by delays in bringing other energy sources online. These include possible delays in adding solar generation following increased tariffs the Trump administration has imposed on imports from China as well as legislation moving through some state governing bodies aimed at inhibiting renewable projects. On 15 April, the Texas Senate passed a bill that would impose restrictions on solar and wind projects, including new permits, fees, regulatory requirements, and taxes. Separately, North Carolina legislators are reviewing a bill that proposes reducing solar tax breaks from 80pc to 40pc and limiting locations for utility-scale projects. Other states are moving forward with efforts to encourage less carbon-intensive generation. Colorado governor Jared Polis (D) on 31 March signed legislation classifying nuclear energy as a "clean" power source. Increased renewable energy generating capacity still is expected to be the "main contributor" to growth in US electricity generation, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). But EIA's latest outlook did not take into account the coal-related executive orders Trump signed on 8 April. "We are currently evaluating these developments, and they will be reflected in the May STEO," EIA chief economist Jonathan Church said. Most market participants do not expect substantial long-term changes to come from recent coal-supporting efforts because of various other factors including the fundamental economics of coal-fired power plants. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US wants IMF, World Bank to drop climate focus

23/04/25

US wants IMF, World Bank to drop climate focus

Washington, 23 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's administration today called on the IMF and the World Bank to focus resources away from climate action and energy transition and to make lending available to fossil fuels programs. The IMF "devotes disproportionate time and resources to work on climate change, gender, and social issues," US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said in remarks today timed to coincide with the two international lending institutions' annual meeting in Washington. "Like the IMF, the World Bank must be made fit for purpose again," he said, during an event hosted by trade group Institute of International Finance. The IMF and the World Bank in recent years have followed the preferences of their largest shareholders — the US and European countries — in incorporating the effects of climate change in their analysis and to facilitate energy transition in the emerging economies. The World Bank, together with other multilateral development banks globally, announced at the UN Cop-29 climate conference last year that they could increase climate financing to $170bn/yr by 2030, up from $125bn in 2023. "I know 'sustainability' is a popular term around here," Bessent said. "But I'm not talking about climate change or carbon footprints. I'm talking about economic and financial sustainability." Bessent urged the World Bank to "be tech neutral and prioritize affordability and energy investment," adding that "in most cases, this means investing in gas and other fossil fuel based energy production." "In other cases, this may mean investing in renewable energy coupled with systems to help manage the intermittency of wind and solar," Bessent said. The US is the largest shareholder at both the IMF and the World Bank, with a 16pc stake in both institutions. The Trump administration, which has slashed climate programs at US government institutions and withdrew the US from climate-focused international efforts, has so far refrained from interfering in the operations of the IMF and the World Bank. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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