Immigration trumps sanctions in US-Vz talks: Update

Spanish Market: Crude oil
31/01/25

Adds comment from Trump.

US president Donald Trump's administration is prioritizing discussions on immigration and detainees over other issues in relations with Venezuela, suggesting no imminent move to tighten sanctions on oil exports.

US special envoy Ric Grenell landed in Caracas, Venezuela, today to discuss repatriations and the liberation of US citizens detained in the South American country, the White House confirmed.

The envoy went with two orders from Trump: to ensure that "Venezuelan nationals that have broken our nation's laws will land in Venezuela," and that "all US detainees in Venezuela are returned," a White House official said.

National assembly president Jorge Rodriguez and foreign minister Yvan Gil were shown on Venezuelan television meeting Grenell on the tarmac.

The US said it plans to deport 400 members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua that it has arrested.

US citizens in custody in Venezuela include three arrested in September for allegedly plotting to overthrow Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Another six US citizens are also being held in Venezuela, according to human rights groups.

The negotiations with Venezuela do not mean that the US recognizes Maduro as a legitimate president, the official said. The US and many other countries hold that Venezuela's July elections were fradulant and that exiled opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez won the vote.

The US in April in the run-up to the election revoked a temporary lifting of some crude sanctions on Venezuela after it became clear that Venezuela would not let primary opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado run. Gonzalez ran in her place.

Trump has discussed possibly tightening crude sanctions on Venezuela, which were originally put in place during his first term. Former president Joe Biden's administration began allowing Chevron to export crude again from its joint ventures in Venezuela to the US only, which averages about 200,000 b/d.

The US president critized that shift today, but did not mention increasing sanctions.

"We're not going to let that stupid stuff happen," Trump said. "So we'll see what happens. We're not happy with Venezuela."

The meetings come as secretary of state Marco Rubio begins his first foreign visit in his new capacity with a stop in Panama. Trump has demanded concessions for US vessels passing through the critical waterway and publicly mulled taking over the canal from Panama.

Grenell's discussions do not indicate a change in US priorities about Venezuela just as Rubio goes to the region, US special envoy on Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said.

The US urged Maduro to heed Grenell's demands "and what he puts on the table, because ultimately there will be consequences otherwise," Claver-Carone said.

By Carla Bass and Carlos Camacho

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03/03/25

Opec+ eight agree to boost output from April

London, 3 March (Argus) — Opec+ members have agreed to proceed with a plan to start increasing crude output starting in April. The eight Opec+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — are to go ahead with their existing plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of "voluntary" output cuts over an 18-month period from April. The plan also includes a 300,000 b/d increase in the UAE's production target, which will be phased in over the same 18-month period. In a statement late today, Opec said the decision took into account "healthy market fundamentals and the positive market outlook." If implemented fully, the plan would see the production targets of the eight members rise by an average of 137,000 b/d each month up to September 2026. But the group once again emphasised that the return of the cut production would be "gradual and flexible" and "adaptable to evolving conditions". This leaves them room to pause or reverse their unwinding "subject to market conditions". The decision comes after US president Donald Trump in January called on the alliance to "bring down the cost of oil" — something it could probably do by raising production. But the market faces an array of uncertainties, including the impact of Trump's tariff plans as well as his efforts to curtail Iran's and Venezuela's oil exports. Opec also said that members that are required to compensate for past overproduction would frontload their plans. If implemented, this would offset some of the group's rise in output from April. Opec said the group's overproducers would submit updated compensation plans by 17 March and make this publicly available. By Gavin Attridge and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Venezuela oil can flow despite sanctions U-turn

03/03/25

Venezuela oil can flow despite sanctions U-turn

Washington, 3 March (Argus) — Venezuelan crude could remain available to most current buyers in the near future even though US president Donald Trump's administration says it is closing exceptions in sanctions against Caracas. Trump on 26 February said he would not extend a sanctions waiver that allowed Chevron to lift crude cargoes from its joint venture with Venezuelan state-owned PdV. US secretary of state Marco Rubio last week separately said via social media that he would recommend terminating all "oil and gas licenses that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate regime" of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Under normal circumstances, such announcements by the US administration include detailed guidance from the Treasury Department's sanctions enforcement arm, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). But OFAC in its guidance issued on Sunday, days after Trump's announcement, merely said it was "preparing to take action to wind-down General License 41 and other specific licenses as appropriate." General license 41 is the authorization for Chevron's activities in Venezuela, which was issued on 26 November 2022. "We will issue additional guidance to assist implementation concurrent with any changes to the authorization(s)," OFAC said. The 2022 authorization for Chevron was auto-renewed every month and allowed the company to operate in Venezuela for a six-month period after each renewal. Since Trump noted that he would not renew the license on 1 March, the terms of that license in theory allow Chevron to continue loading cargoes from Venezuela until at least 1 August. Multiple other foreign oil companies and traders hold OFAC licenses with sanctions waivers allowing them to load crude and other energy commodities from PdV. Former president Joe Biden's administration issued such authorizations because their terms do not involve direct payments to PdV. Most cargoes are loaded by operators in exchange for writing down debts owed to them by the Venezuelan government or by PdV. Caracas began to selectively default on its debts to foreign creditors in 2018, and foreign creditors have advanced claims totalling over $60bn. A group of those creditors have succeeded in forcing a sale of PdV-owned US refiner Citgo through a yet-incomplete auction overseen by a US federal court in Delaware. OFAC typically does not disclose sanctions waivers granted to individual operators. Some of them, including Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni, previously have made public disclosures about holding limited sanctions waivers. It is also not clear if sanctions waivers issued to oil field service companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford, to enable their continued presence in or a future return to Venezuela, will remain in place. Trinidad and Tobago, which has a sanctions waiver to pursue a project to import Venezuelan gas for a Trinidad-based LNG project, said last week it "will do all in its power" to preserve cross-border oil and gas production agreements. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sheinbaum urges calm ahead of Trump tariff deadline

03/03/25

Sheinbaum urges calm ahead of Trump tariff deadline

Mexico City, 3 March (Argus) — Mexico will deliver a composed and measured response if the US imposes tariffs on its imports as threatened tonight, although there has been no definitive word on what will happen, President Claudia Sheinbaum said. US president Donald Trump postponed an early February deadline to impose 25pc tariffs on all Mexican and most Canadian goods by a month to allow more time for negotiations over what he said were concerns over the flow of drugs and immigrants into the US. This followed Sheinbaum pledge to send another 10,000 national guard troops to the border to curtail drug trafficking, with a specific focus on fentanyl. Mexico has continued talks with the US this past month to demonstrate results of its efforts. But the Mexican government does not yet know if this has been sufficient to convince Trump to further pause tariffs, Sheinbaum said this morning. "Whatever the decision is, we will have a plan to respond," Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference. Mexico has a plan that includes retaliatory tariffs as an option, Sheinbaum said last month. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said on a broadcast interview Sunday that the US will likely implement the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but that Trump could lower the tariffs below 25pc. Lutnick described the situation as "fluid", leaving open the possibilities for last-minute negotiations. Sheinbaum could still have a call with Trump before the deadline expires, much like last month, when the tariffs were postponed following talks between the presidents , Sheinbaum said last week. Sheinbaum said such a call could come today. Tariffs would likely curtail energy trade between the US and Mexico. Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe. Mexico also imports much of its road fuels and LPG from the US. But hitting these goods with retaliatory tariffs would be costly for Mexico and may be unlikely, according to market sources. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US sends mixed signals on Canada, Mexico tariffs

03/03/25

US sends mixed signals on Canada, Mexico tariffs

Washington, 3 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump's top economic advisers are providing conflicting guidance on the tariffs the US will impose on Canadian and Mexican imports as early as Tuesday. The effective date for the tariffs, which Trump announced via an executive order a month ago, is 12:01am ET on Tuesday. The executive order calls for imposing a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico. Trump last week said that the tariffs will go into effect as planned. But US treasury secretary Scott Bessent over the weekend referenced a proposal by Mexico City to match the level of tariffs Trump has leveled or is planning to impose on imports from China, as a way to avoid a trade war between the US, Mexico and Canada. "It would be a nice gesture if the Canadians did it also, so in a way we could have ‘Fortress North America' from the flood of Chinese imports," Bessent said in a televised interview. Trump ordered a 10pc tariff on all imports from China, effective on 4 February. He is threatening to double that tax on Tuesday. The rate would be in addition to all previously imposed tariffs on imports from China. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick, in turn, said on Sunday that the import taxes on Canada and Mexico would proceed as scheduled, but their exact levels may not be as high as set out in Trump's order last month. "There are going to be tariffs on Tuesday on Mexico and Canada," Lutnick said. "Exactly what they're going to be, I'm going to leave that for the president to decide." Trump's economic adviser Kevin Hassett separately suggested that the tariffs could go into effect at the levels Trump set, but that the White House could lower them over time if talks with Canada and Mexico on border security are successful. The Canada and Mexico tariffs are not in place yet, but vast segments of the energy industry — oil and gas producers, refiners, pipeline operators, traders — already are bracing for potentially disruptive outcomes. US independent refiners, already facing weaker margins, falling demand and regulatory uncertainty in their burgeoning renewables businesses, expect that tariffs will lead to higher feedstock costs and will cause some to reduce runs, cutting further into profits. A major European energy trading company has redirected some volumes of natural gas that were scheduled to flow across the US border into Canada to reduce the company's exposure to the threat of impending tariffs. The imposition of tariffs after decades of free trade in energy across North America is expected to create legal uncertainty in contractual obligations related to the payment of tariffs and reporting requirements. The current US import duties on crude are set at 5.25¢/bl and 10.5¢/bl, depending on crude quality. The administration has said the new tariff would be based on the value of the commodity — without specifying how that will be calculated and at what specific point during the transportation process. US government agencies are not expected to clarify the implementation details until Trump's executive order on tariffs goes into effect. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: ExxonMobil sees pathway to eight Guyanese projects

03/03/25

Q&A: ExxonMobil sees pathway to eight Guyanese projects

New York, 3 March (Argus) — ExxonMobil has a "line of sight" to eight projects in Guyana, which will help drive up production from the prolific offshore Stabroek block in coming years. And more is possible as the prospecting licence for the block still has another two-and-a-half years to go, ExxonMobil's Guyana president, Alistair Routledge , told Argus' Stephen Cunningham in an exclusive interview on the sidelines of the recent Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo in Georgetown, Guyana. How will this year's general elections affect your operations in Guyana? We take a long-term perspective. Our job is to work with whichever administration is voted in, and to ensure that it's a collaborative relationship, it honours past commitments, and also that it ensures the long-term attractiveness of this location for future investment. How do you view Guyana's shallow-water blocks? We participated in the 2022 licensing round, and we were awarded the S8 block, along with our partners, [US firm] Hess and [China's] CNOOC. We continue in our discussions with the government to try to finalise a petroleum agreement. What about other deepwater blocks? We recently relinquished our interest in the Kaieteur block. Just as we looked at the opportunity space there, it didn't stack up in our global portfolio of opportunities. But we did drill a well that encountered oil in the Kaieteur block, so we think we've helped derisk it for the remaining players. Canje block — we still hold equity in that, we're still the operator. I think it's three wells we've drilled in the Canje block. So we've taken the data from those wells, we're revisiting the seismic and figuring out is there another prospect to drill? Can you talk about your new state-of-the art offices here? These are deploying the latest digital technologies, particularly control room technologies. The fact that we pre-invested in a fibre optic network, so a loop to line that goes from onshore through the offshore fields and then back again, to enable us to transmit information in huge quantities, but also to have very little latency in those communications, which you'll probably understand for control room operations is critical. [Floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO)] Liza Destiny is not connected to the fibre optic, but all of the subsequent FPSOs either are or will be, and that enables them to have an onshore remote operation. Starting from April, we'll start getting those control rooms up and running and, more gradually, migrate the control room operators from offshore to actually operating 24/7 from onshore. What are the lessons that can be learned from Guyana? The partnership between the government and the operating companies is essential. Having a long-term perspective, creating a shared vision, and then working together to achieve it. That has been one of the strengths in Guyana. Then it's the partnerships that live within the industry, or the prime suppliers, the local suppliers with the overseas expertise, bringing all of that together. What about natural gas? We always have kept an eye on the value and opportunity space with the associated gas on the oil fields, but the first priority has always been to ensure that we're maximising the overall recovery of resource. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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