US president Donald Trump is set to disrupt the integrated North American energy market with tariffs of 10pc on Canadian energy imports and 25pc on Mexico-sourced energy commodities, effective on 4 February.
Trump on Saturday issued executive orders that would impose taxes of 25pc on all imports from Mexico and 25pc on all non-energy imports from Canada, effective on 4 February. Most energy commodities imported from Canada would be subject to a lower, 10pc tariff. Imported goods in transit before 12:01am ET on 1 February would not be subject to those levies.
The Canada energy exemption applies to "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water and critical minerals".
Trump and the White House did not explain why he made a slight concession on the Canadian energy commodities. The US-Canada energy trade is particularly vulnerable to tariffs, for both sides. More than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Conversely, many refineries in the US midcontinent have no practical alternative to the Canadian crude.
Industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Saturday that it would "continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation's energy advantage and support American jobs".
Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on China, by declaring a "national emergency" related to alleged inability of those countries to stem the flow of migrants and illegal drug fentanyl to the US.
The White House in previous decades has used emergency declarations to impose sanctions against foreign countries, and US courts have stayed away from challenging the executive branch on such declarations and their economic applications.
The choice of an emergency declaration also is meant to prevent the US Congress, which retains primary authority over US international trade, from intervening legislatively to remove tariffs.
Congressional Republicans, at any rate, quickly hailed Trump's decision. By contrast, Democratic lawmakers and state officials denounced the tariffs and cited inflationary effects of the import taxes.
Tit for tat
Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday that his country's energy exports to the US would factor in with other retaliatory measures, possibly in the form of export taxes.
"There are a number of different industries and regions of the country that can have greater leverage over the US," Trudeau said. "One thinks of the oil industry for example."
Alberta premier Danielle Smith said on Saturday that she would oppose efforts to ban or to tax exports to the US. Trudeau said he would hold consultations with regional and business leaders before taking any counter-measures.
But he added, "no one part of the country should be carrying a heavier burden than another."
Trudeau said that Canada would apply a 25pc import tax on C$30bn ($21bn) worth of imports from the US on 4 February, followed by a 25pc tariff on an additional C$125bn worth of imports on 25 February.
Denouncing Trump's punitive tariffs and his frequent derogatory comments about the US' northern neighbor, Trudeau, in comments directed at a US audience, said: "From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you."
Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum likewise criticized Trump's action, characterizing as "slander" the text of his executive orders, which alleged that Mexico's government was an instrument of the country's drug cartels.
But Mexico did not unveil specific countermeasures against Trump's tariffs.
"I instruct the secretary of economy to implement Plan B, which we have been working on, including tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests," Sheinbaum said on Saturday.
Trump's executive orders call for raising US tariffs if Canada and Mexico retaliate.
Effects to be felt across the economy
The North American energy industry is an obvious casualty of Trump's trade war. But its effects will be felt in automobile manufacturing, agriculture, steel, aluminum, potash and every other sector of the economy in all three countries.
Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe.
Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets.
The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term.
Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free-flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said.
North American steel trading costs could rise by as much at $5.3bn across the three nations, since Mexico and Canada are expected to issue reciprocal tariffs against the US, as it did when Trump issued tariffs in his first term.
The tariffs could also disrupt US corn and soybean sales, since China and Mexico account for 48pc of US corn exports and 61pc of US soybean exports since 2019, according to US Department of Agriculture data.
