US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Spanish Market: Metals, Natural gas
12/02/25

US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December.

The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation.

The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month.

Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply.

Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December.

Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain

New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction.

Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc.

CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains.

By Bob Willis

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28/03/25

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since November 2022, led by a slump in expectations over the "potential for pain" from US economic policies introduced by the new administration. Sentiment fell to 57, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey released Friday. The final reading for March was lower than the preliminary reading. The sentiment index fell to a record low of 50 in June 2022 on inflation concerns. The index of consumer expectations fell to 52.6, the lowest since July 2022, from 64 in February and 77.4 in March last year. The expectations index has lost more than 30pc since November last year. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey director Joanne Hsu said. The decline "reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations: Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations … for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment and inflation," Hsu said. Current economic conditions slipped to 63.8 in March from 65.7 in February and 82.5 last March. Two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5pc this month, the highest reading since November 2022, from 4.3pc last month. The University of Michigan survey comes three days after The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

28/03/25

ISCC aware EU mulling certification recognition: Update

Adds comment from the European Commission London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. Market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. The European Commission confirmed that the committee met on 26 March to discuss sustainable certification, promotion of biofuels, avoidance of double counting, and alleged fraud. "We are still working on our examination of this alleged fraud in biodiesel imports from China," said commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But the commission has not taken any decision yet and cannot allude to "possible" scenarios, she said. By John Houghton-Brown, Simone Burgin and Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK steel importers oppose other countries' caps

28/03/25

UK steel importers oppose other countries' caps

London, 28 March (Argus) — Steel importers in the UK suggest the imposition of a cap on any other countries' quotas could effectively stop trade, given the small volume of the quotas. In a recent submission to the Trade Remedies Authority, UK Steel said 15pc caps should be introduced on other countries quotas for hot-dip galvanised, plate and rebar. But in its submission to the TRA, trading firm Salzgitter Mannesmann argues that any cap based on a percentage of the quota "will ultimately most likely remove rather than reduce imports as shipments from many third countries, notably the far east, require a certain base volume to ship economically to the UK". Other trading firms and service centres told Argus they share the same view. Salzgitter Mannesmann also suggested a new country quotas for individual importers be added to the safeguard based on their imports over the past two or three years. The only local producer of hot-dip galvanised coil, Tata Steel, would be likely to argue against this as volumes from some countries, notably Vietnam, have increased dramatically in recent years. Salzgitter Mannesmann also suggests Tata Steel cannot produce hot-rolled coil over 1.85m wide, for which the UK has to totally rely on imports. Traders have for some time argued that there should be no import constraints on material, such as 2m wide, as there can be no injury to the producer on grades it cannot produce. Service centre Sebden Steel said the current measures make it "impossible" for the UK to be flooded with cheap foreign imports, and that people are "misinformed by mainstream media and UK Steel". "The UK producer is in a safe place already and any additional measures will only serve to cause injury to independent steel service centres, independent steel stockholders and the UK manufacturing base, which will all be faced with a further tightening of the supply chain and increased costs," it said. Importers, unsurprisingly, question why Tata Steel, now a re-roller until its electric arc furnaces are installed, can import on much more favourable terms than others. Tata has a much bigger quota than the rest of the market, at around 2.3mn t, but the main problem for importers is that the company has fewer constraints on where it can source, with only a 40pc cap on any given country within that quota. Independent service centres, which all compete with Tata Distribution, can only import much smaller quantities from different locations, given the fragmented composition of quotas; the other countries quota for 1A, for example, is less than 100,000 t/yr. EU mills have far and away the largest quota to sell 1A HRC into the UK, but given their higher costs compared with Asian producers, they struggle to compete; Tata's imports come from all over the world, as well as some from its sister mill in IJmuiden, the Netherlands. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

28/03/25

ISCC aware of EU talks on certification recognition

London, 28 March (Argus) — The ISCC, an international certification system for sustainability, said today that it is aware of discussions in an EU committee about future recognition of its certification for waste-based biofuels. It said there is no legal basis for any planned measures. Industry participants said yesterday that the EU Committee on Sustainability of Biofuels, Bioliquids, and Biomass Fuels is drafting implementing regulations that would include a two-and-a-half year pause to obligatory acceptance of ISCC EU certification for waste-based biofuels. "This action is said to be subject to further legal scrutiny and will need approval by member states," the ISCC said. Currently, member states accept EU-recognised voluntary scheme certification as proof that fuel or feedstocks are compliant with the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sustainability criteria. There has been no official statement from the European Commission but market participants told Argus that discussions have centred around giving individual countries more choice. "Other voluntary schemes would not be able to fill the gap. The measure would be a severe blow to the entire market for waste-based biofuels and would seriously jeopardise the ability of the obligated parties to comply with blending mandates," the ISCC said. The ISCC has been singled out in a discriminatory way and has supported European Commission and member states' investigations into alleged fraud, it said. "We are more than surprised by this step […and] are unable to see the rationale of the planned measure, which seems ad hoc and baseless," it added. Secretary-general of the European Biodiesel Board (EBB) Xavier Noyon told Argus that, if confirmed, the suspension would affect thousands of operators. "At this time, member states are refusing to comment, and we call on the commission to urgently clarify any decisions of this nature that are on the table," he said. The EBB published its own proposed revision to the RED implementing legislation last month, which expanded the supervisory power of member states over voluntary schemes and certification bodies. By John Houghton-Brown and Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Aurelia Metals to boost Cu, Zn processing

28/03/25

Australia's Aurelia Metals to boost Cu, Zn processing

Perth, 28 March (Argus) — Australian metal producer Aurelia Metals is set to triple mixed metal ore processing capacity of ore from its Federation mine, after authorities in New South Wales state approved a project consent change. Aurelia produces mixed metal ore at its 600,000 t/yr Federation mine. It then hauls ore to its nearby Peak processing centre to produce a range of base and precious metals, including zinc, copper, lead, and gold. The company has been allowed to move only 200,000 t/yr of ore between its two NSW sites since Federation opened in mid-2024, because of consent restrictions. But the latest change allows it to move 600,000 t/yr of ore to Peak, the company announced on 28 March. Aurelia's updated consent comes as it continues to ramp up production at Federation. The company only processed 16,500t of Federation ore in October-December 2024, recovering 55t of copper, 626t of lead, 1,263t of zinc, and 502oz of gold. Aurelia is increasing its base metal production capacity, despite other Australian producers doing the opposite. Australian metal firm IGO paused its Forrestania nickel project in July-September 2024, and will close its Nova copper and nickel mine in 2027. But this phenomenon is not unique to Australia. Global metal producer Glencore cut its total copper output by 6pc in 2024, following planned production declines in Chile and Peru, and unplanned disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Copper prices have been quite volatile over the last year. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) copper cash price stood at $8,696/t on 27 March 2024, before bouncing between a high of $10,857/t and a low of $8,620/t over the next 12 months. LME's copper price stood at $9,787/t on 27 March. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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