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US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

  • Market: Metals, Natural gas
  • 12/02/25

US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December.

The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation.

The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month.

Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply.

Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December.

Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain

New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction.

Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc.

CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains.


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25/03/25

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Energy security is the "big opportunity holistically" of US secretary of state Marco Rubio's planned visit this week to Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname, US special envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said. The island nations that are net importers of crude and other energy products have a chance to "turn the page" to improve energy security and reduce prices, the envoy said today in a state department briefing to press. The trip comes after the US said this week it would impose a 25pc discretionary tariff on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan crude. Several nations in the past received crude from their South American neighbor through its PetroCaribe aid program which is largely defunct, other than shipments to Cuba. Trinidad has also sought to develop cross-border natural gas fields with Venezuela to boost its flagging production, but the US announcement further complicates this plan. "Along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we're deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energize ... those natural gas opportunities," Claver-Carone said. Booming oil producer Guyana in turn has faced a border dispute with Venezuela, and the US hopes to discuss "binding security cooperation" to solve this problem during Rubio's visit. Along with Guyana's neighbor Suriname, which hopes to launch offshore crude production by 2028, the outlook for the region to increase energy production could end its "huge Achilles' heel to its economic development and security," Claver-Carone added. Rubio will also discuss security, including improving conditions in Haiti, illegal migration and arms and drug trafficking during his visits on Wednesday and Thursday. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn

London, 25 March (Argus) — Low snowpack and hydro reserves in Italy may increase demand for gas-fired plants this summer, in turn driving up power-sector gas burn on days when renewable output is weakest. Italian thermal-fired plants — mostly gas fired — accounted for 51pc of the country's generation mix in the summers of 2020-24, while run-of-river installations, pumped-storage plants and hydroelectric dams accounted for 19pc and solar, wind and other sources provided 31pc. Italian power-sector gas demand averaged 61.5mn m³/d. Italian gas-fired plants compete directly against programmable hydroelectric dams for both the day-ahead and ancillary power markets, so if overall electricity demand this summer remains steady on the year, gas-fired plants stand to gain a greater share of the generation mix than in years when hydro output was stronger. Unseasonably hot weather driving unusually high use of electric-powered air conditioning this summer would further increase scope for Italy's gas-fired plants to run. The estimated water content of snow on Italian mountains as of 8 March — the latest available data — was the lowest for that date since at least 2011 and was almost 57pc below the 2011-23 average for that time of year, according to Italian meteorological association Cima. Snowpack last year also dipped below the 2011-23 average in January-March before late-season precipitation pushed levels back above median levels in April-July. At the same time, water reserves at Italian hydroelectric dams have been well below historical averages this year. Reserves equal to 2.08TWh of power generation as of 17 March — the latest available data — were the third lowest for that date since 2015 and a full 10pc below the 10-year average for that time of year. Looking ahead, following months of predominantly dry weather punctuated by occasional bouts of heavy showers, long-term weather forecasts this week predicted slightly above-average rainfall over the rest of March and throughout April in Milan, around which much of the country's hydro capacity is located. And during that time, at least some rain was forecast to fall on all but one day, which would provide a far steadier influx of water into rivers. That said, Italian renewable generation capacity — particularly solar — is poised to continue rising in the coming months, likely boosting output from those technologies on the year in April-September and restricting demand for dispatchable gas-fired and hydroelectric dams alike. Total Italian PV solar capacity of 37.9GW at the start of March was 20pc higher on the year, suggesting potential for a proportional increase in generation of that type in April-September compared with summer 2024. Italian PV solar panels and on-site renewable installations at homes and businesses, the vast majority of which are solar-based, generated an average of 8GW each day in summer 2024, covering 26pc of all generation nationwide. By Ilenia Reale and Jeff Kuntz Gas and hydro output, hydro reserves GW, TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US consumer expectations at 12-year low: Survey


25/03/25
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25/03/25

US consumer expectations at 12-year low: Survey

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession ahead. The Expectations Index, based on the short-term outlook for income, business and labor-market conditions in the US, dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and "well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead," according to the survey. The headline Consumer Confidence index fell by 7.2 points to 92.9 in March, marking a fourth month of declines. The Present Situation Index, reflecting consumer assessments of current business and labor-market conditions, fell by 3.6 points to 134.5. The survey cutoff date for preliminary results was 19 March. US consumers' expectations were "especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low," according to the report. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.2pc in March from 5.8pc in February "... as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs." "Comments on the current (US) administration and its policies, both positive and negative, dominated consumers' write-in responses," the report said. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Hyundai Steel to build EAF mill in Louisiana


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

Hyundai Steel to build EAF mill in Louisiana

Houston, 24 March (Argus) — South Korean automaker Hyundai Motor Group said today it plans to build an electric arc furnace (EAF) flat steel mill near New Orleans, Louisiana, to support its US auto manufacturing plants. The 2.7mn metric tonnes (t)/yr (3mn short tons/yr) mill in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, will primarily supply Hyundai's automotive plants, which are located in Alabama and Georgia, along with plants run by Hyundai-subsidiary Kia and other US automakers, according to the Louisiana Economic Development organization. Construction is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2026. Hyundai detailed the $5.8bn investment on Monday at a news conference with US president Donald Trump. Trump said the mill would allow Hyundai to avoid US steel tariffs. The president has enacted 25pc steel tariffs on imports from all countries, including from South Korea where Hyundai has all of its 24mn metric tonnes (t) of steel output capacity. That production is split evenly between blast furnace and EAF steelmaking processes. Between Hyundai and Kia, the companies have a combined annual production rate of 1.05mn vehicles/yr in the US. Hyundai Steel, a unit of Hyundai Motor, plans to import an estimated 3.6mn t/yr of iron ore to the mill, and will build a deep-water dock on the west bank of the Mississippi River in Ascension Parish to accommodate steel and materials shipments, according to LED. It was not clear whether the iron ore will be reduced in a direct reduced iron (DRI) or hot-briquetted iron (HBI) process to use in the EAF steelmaking. If built, the mill would be the first flat steel mill in Louisiana. The location in Donaldsville is about 48 miles west of New Orleans. Steelmakers operate eight EAF and re-rolling flat-rolled steel mills in the southern US with a combined 23.8mn t/yr of production capacity. By Rye Druzchetta Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Estonian climate ministry to push for EU ETS 2 repeal


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

Estonian climate ministry to push for EU ETS 2 repeal

London, 24 March (Argus) — Estonia's parliament has granted the country's climate ministry a mandate to push for the repeal or postponement of the EU's second emissions trading system (ETS 2) covering road transport and buildings, scheduled to launch in 2027. The Estonian parliament's EU affairs committee granted the ministry a mandate to begin consultations with the European Commission and EU member states on repealing the EU ETS 2 directive, because of the administrative burden and uncertainty posed by transposing the measure. If Estonia fails to garner sufficient support, it will join existing proposals by the Czech Republic and Poland to postpone the introduction of the new system for two years. This additional time could be used to find a way to limit the burden of imposing the measure, the committee said. These proposals would require a qualified majority of EU member states to pass. If not adopted, Estonia's climate ministry would instead start negotiations to postpone the launch of the system to 2028 or exclude road transport from its scope. The committee approved the mandate — which followed positions submitted by the government and subsequent amendments and opinions by the parliament's environment and economic affairs committees — "after a long and heated political debate", its chairman Peeter Tali said. The commission last year adopted a supply cap of 1.036bn carbon allowances in 2027 for the new system, which will cover upstream emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS. For the first three years of operation, the system will have a price cap of €45/t of CO2 equivalent, adjusted for inflation, which if surpassed for a period of two months would trigger the release of 20mn allowances from its market stability reserve. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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