Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

Spanish Market: Coal, Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
19/03/25

Turkey's lira currency fell to record lows against the US dollar today, after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor provoked concern about instability. The depreciation could cause imports of dollar-denominated commodities to become more expensive, although reaction was mixed across markets.

The lira went as low at 40/$1 in early trading, from below 37/$1 on Tuesday 18 March, before easing to around 38/$1 later in the day.

The lira has been slowly depreciating against the dollar for many years, but the sharp fall today came after Ekrem Imamoglu, one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rivals, was held on suspicion of corruption and aiding a terrorist organisation.

Turkey is a significant importer of natural gas, crude and LPG, as well as coal and petcoke, although demand for many commodities will be muted currently because of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan.

Early indications from the coal and petcoke markets were that all import trades had halted as the lira hit the record low. In polymers markets the focus is on whether demand recovers after Ramadan ends on 30 March. But a trading source in Turkey said the fall is not enough for "massive changes" to imports of oil products.

The OECD forecasts headline inflation in Turkey at 31.4pc this year, the highest among its members, easing to 17.3pc in 2026. The IMF has forecast Turkey's economy will grow by 2.6pc this year, after an expansion of 2.7pc in 2024.

By Ben Winkley, Aydin Calik, Joseph Clarke, Amaar Khan and Dila Odluyurt

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20/03/25

US ethane cracking margins at 10-month low

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — US ethane cracking margins have fallen to the lowest in 10 months on rising ethane cash costs and falling spot ethylene prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, according to an Argus generic model. Ethane cracking margins on Wednesday fell to 10.5¢/lb, the lowest level since May 2024. Margins have steadily narrowed from a peak of 24.75¢/lb two months ago, when a freeze took several US Gulf coast crackers off line and spiked ethylene prices to 35.25¢/lb in a trade at the Enterprise Products Partners (EPC) system at Mont Belvieu. The decline in cash margins largely follows falling domestic ethylene spot prices as US crackers have incrementally restarted and ramped up production since mid-January. US spot EPC ethylene traded Wednesday at 24.75¢/lb, the first trade below 25¢/lb since late November. The more than 10¢/lb decline in ethylene spot prices does not fully account for eroding ethane cracking margins. Ethane costs have risen by more than a third through February and into March, hitting an 18-month high last week of 31.1875¢/USG. Higher ethane costs have largely followed higher natural gas prices at the benchmark Henry Hub, which hit a two-year high at $4.491/mmBtu on 10 March stemming from tightening US gas inventories. Natural gas prices serve as a price floor for ethane because it is separated from raw natural gas during processing. The 60pc drop in ethane cracking margins over the past two months is unlikely to affect ethane-based ethylene production, as margins of at least 4-5¢/lb are generally still profitable for cracker operators. US ethane cracking margins in 2024 averaged 14-15¢/lb, according to Argus data. Ethane structurally remains the most advantaged feedstock on the US Gulf coast and was last surpassed briefly by a competing feedstock more than 18 months ago. Propane cracking margins are currently negative and the butane cracking margin has ranged from 3.5-8¢/lb this month. By Michael Camarda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria's Trans-Niger oil pipeline restarts after fire

20/03/25

Nigeria's Trans-Niger oil pipeline restarts after fire

Lagos, 20 March (Argus) — Nigeria has restarted pumping crude through the 180,000 b/d Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) to the Bonny export terminal after an apparent attack led to a fire earlier this week, halting flows and prompting President Bola Tinubu to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State . The Renaissance Africa consortium — which only last week took over operatorship of the TNP and the Bonny terminal from Shell — said pipeline flows were restored on 19 March "following integrity inspection, testing and activation of a second pipeline within the network". The last 20km stretch of the 60km TNP, between the Cawthorne Channel and the Bonny terminal, has separate 30-inch and 24-inch lines. Renaissance Africa did not say which of the two is currently active. The fire on the pipeline caused a brief halt to operations at the Bonny terminal but loadings have now resumed. A source at state-owned oil firm NNPC told Argus that the Bryanston tanker started loading at the terminal at 23:54 local time on 19 March. Market participants said loading operations at the export terminal were behind schedule by up to two weeks anyway. Before the pipeline fire, the next scheduled operation at the terminal had been to pump 475,000 bl of Bonny Light crude to NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery. NNPC said it had to contain a flare incident at the refinery on 19 March. The company described it as "a minor incident" and said the refinery remains operational and "continues to produce on-spec refined petroleum products". The TNP has been the target of repeated oil theft, vandalism and sabotage in the past. As part of the state of emergency in Rivers State, President Tinubu appointed a former chief of the navy as the state's sole administrator for the next six months, but this is subject to the approval of the national legislature, which is expected later today. A Renaissance Africa source said its drilling operations in Rivers State have continued uninterrupted, while an energy lawyer based in the state's capital Port Harcourt told Argus that government and private business in the city have continued as normal. It is too early to say if and to what extent the pipeline incident has impacted Nigeria's crude output. Production of the Bonny Light crude grade fell by 14pc on the month to 210,000 b/d in February, according to upstream regulator NUPRC. Renaissance Africa said a TNP joint investigation visit, led by NUPRC, is scheduled for today. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

TotalEnergies delays, cuts size of Grandpuits HVO

20/03/25

TotalEnergies delays, cuts size of Grandpuits HVO

Barcelona, 20 March (Argus) — TotalEnergies is delaying the start up of its Grandpuits hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) plant, and is planning to reduce the plant's proposed capacity. TotalEnergies confirmed the planned 400,000 t/yr HVO and HVO jet fuel (SAF) plant, near Paris, will not start in 2025 as previously outlined. Instead, a first phase of 210,000t of SAF output is slated to begin operations "early in 2026." TotalEnergies said there will then be a second phase of 75,000t, which will start at an unspecified point in 2027, giving 285,000 t/yr. If all production is SAF this would be equivalent to around 6,155 b/d. The CGT union said its members at Grandpuits downed tools for 24 hours yesterday, 19 March, as a result of the company's announcement. Workers say they have been promised a meeting with management in mid-April, and there does not appear to be industrial action at the site today. TotalEnergies halted crude distillation at the 93,000 b/d Grandpuits four years ago . The transformation includes a 10,000 t/yr plastics recycling unit. It said 1,200 workers are on site to undertake the conversion and this will result in 250 full time posts on completion. This is consistent with previous plans . The delay and reduction in size at Grandpuits does appear to confound targets for TotalEnergies' HVO and SAF output previously laid out by chief executive Patrick Pouyanne . The company operates a 500,000 t/yr HVO and SAF plant at La Mede, near the port of Fos-Lavera. A Grandpuits worker said management has indicated the company will look to purchase HVO and SAF, in order to honour contractual obligations. By Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia must rethink gas strategy: Grattan

20/03/25

Australia must rethink gas strategy: Grattan

Sydney, 20 March (Argus) — Grattan's Orange Book 2025: Policy priorities for the federal government report suggests redesigning Canberra's future gas strategy, coordinating a shift away from gas for households and some industries while changing market control mechanisms. Australia's next federal government must act to address a shortfall of gas in the country's southeastern states by creating a demand response mechanism for the national gas market and bringing together stakeholders to permit initial LNG imports in mid-2026, according to Grattan. Australia has always been both an exporter and importer of LPG, proving it is possible to build infrastructure to ship gas to the nation's south for the next 3-4 years in line with expected shortfalls, director of Grattan's energy program Tony Wood told a Sydney forum on 19 March. Building or expanding gas pipelines would be expensive and inefficient as the nation decarbonises, Wood said, with less gas forecast to be used as Australia targets net zero emissions by 2050. Canberra should institute a working group involving producers, users, traders, terminal owners, governments and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission — which reports on market supply — to achieve seasonal imports of LNG in winter months, according to the Grattan report. A rule change to create a demand response mechanism akin to that under national electricity market rules would assist in meeting small shortfalls, such as during severe weather or unexpected supply outages. Demand is expected to rise on the back the closure of coal-fired power stations in the 2030s, according to Canberra's future gas strategy released in 2024. Gas-fired power demand may double in the decade to 2043 because of the need to support a solar and wind-heavy grid. This requires a reworking of the future gas strategy to specify plans to reduce demand and clarify future gas requirements outside of power generation, Grattan's report said. Assistance for households and industries to electrify processes is also needed, together with optimising infrastructure to ensure residual users in power generation and industry can access gas supply. The main controls on east coast gas grids, the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) and code of conduct , should be revised to allow for interstate transfers of gas, Grattan said, likely from Queensland's Gladstone-based LNG projects to the southern states. The code of conduct, which mandates an A$12/GJ ($8/GJ) price on domestic gas, came into effect in 2023 amid booming global gas prices but must be reviewed in 2025. Australia's energy and climate change ministerial council met on 14 March but declined to decide on expanding the Australian Energy Market Operator's powers, to enable it to address the gas shortage possibly through underwriting LNG import terminals. More analysis will be commissioned ahead of a decision at the next meeting in mid-2025. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

19/03/25

US Fed keeps rate flat, eyes 2 cuts in '25: Update

Adds Powell comments, economic projections. Houston, 19 March (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers held their target interest rate unchanged today in their second meeting of 2025, and signaled two quarter-point cuts are still likely this year. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc. This mirrored the decision made at the last FOMC meeting at the end of January, which followed rate cuts of 100 basis points over the last three meetings of 2024, which were the first cuts since 2020. "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we are looking at," Fed chair Jerome Powell told journalists after the meeting. "The economy seems to be healthy." Powell acknowledged some of the negative market sentiment in recent weeks, which he said "... probably has to do with turmoil at the beginning of an administration." "We kind of know there are going to be tariffs and they tend to bring growth down and they tend to bring inflation up," he said, but long-term inflation expectations are "well anchored." In December the Fed said it expected 50 basis points worth of cuts for 2025, down from 100 basis points projected in the September median economic projections of Fed board members and Fed bank presidents. Policymakers and Fed officials Wednesday lowered their estimate for GDP growth this year to 1.7pc from a prior estimate of 2.1pc in the December economic projections. They see inflation rising to 2.7pc for 2025 from the prior estimate of 2.5pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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