Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
19/03/25

Turkey's lira currency fell to record lows against the US dollar today, after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor provoked concern about instability. The depreciation could cause imports of dollar-denominated commodities to become more expensive, although reaction was mixed across markets.

The lira went as low at 40/$1 in early trading, from below 37/$1 on Tuesday 18 March, before easing to around 38/$1 later in the day.

The lira has been slowly depreciating against the dollar for many years, but the sharp fall today came after Ekrem Imamoglu, one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rivals, was held on suspicion of corruption and aiding a terrorist organisation.

Turkey is a significant importer of natural gas, crude and LPG, as well as coal and petcoke, although demand for many commodities will be muted currently because of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan.

Early indications from the coal and petcoke markets were that all import trades had halted as the lira hit the record low. In polymers markets the focus is on whether demand recovers after Ramadan ends on 30 March. But a trading source in Turkey said the fall is not enough for "massive changes" to imports of oil products.

The OECD forecasts headline inflation in Turkey at 31.4pc this year, the highest among its members, easing to 17.3pc in 2026. The IMF has forecast Turkey's economy will grow by 2.6pc this year, after an expansion of 2.7pc in 2024.

By Ben Winkley, Aydin Calik, Joseph Clarke, Amaar Khan and Dila Odluyurt

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