Oil futures, stock markets fall on Trump tariffs

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals
03/04/25

US president Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs on all US imports has sparked an immediate sell-off in oil futures and stock markets.

Crude oil futures fell by almost 3.5pc in Asian trading and some stock markets in the region fell by a similar amount, after Trump unveiled the new import tariffs on 2 April.

All foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU, Trump said. But energy and some mineral products have been excluded from the new tariffs.

Tariffs on Japan and South Korea, both major trading partners and long-standing US allies in Asia, have been set at 24pc and 25pc respectively. Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand also face tariffs of more than 30pc.

Tariffs on imports from China will be subject to a 54pc rate, after taking into account the 20pc tariffs imposed by Trump over the last two months. Some imports from China that are subject to pre-existing tariffs will face an even higher effective rate.

The blanket 10pc tariffs will take effect on 5 April. Any additional country-specific rates will come into force on 9 April.

Oil futures fell despite the exemption for energy products. The June Brent contract on the Ice exchange fell by as much as 3.2pc to a low of $72.52/bl in Asian trading, while May Nymex WTI dropped by 3.4pc to $69.27/bl.

The prospect that the US tariffs could disrupt global trade and hit export-focused economies in Asia sent stock markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and South Korea down by 2-3pc or more. US stock futures also fell sharply.

By Kevin Foster

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04/04/25

WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

Adds end of day changes to stock markets, WTI, Treasuries Calgary, 4 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark WTI fell by more than 7pc after China retaliated against the US' latest tariff action, while a selloff in global equity markets deepened. May Nymex WTI fell by $4.96/bl to $61.99/bl, the lowest since 26 April 2021, and is down by $9.72/bl over the most recent two days. Turmoil also continued for a second day in equity markets with the S&P 500 down by 6pc, the Nasdaq down by 5.8pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 5.5pc from the day prior, which saw similiar losses, wiping out nearly a year of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Trillions of dollars in value were wiped out. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to end the day just above 4pc, its lowest since October, as Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safe haven in the dollar-denominated notes. Treasury yields and prices move counter to each other. The equity selloff persisted on mounting fears of a recession after US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of global trading partners for imports into the US. China hit back on Friday with a 34pc tariff of its own against the US from 10 April, driving away any hope by investors for a rebound after a selloff the day before. WTI fell by as much as 9pc during Friday's session after China's retaliation, bottoming out at $60.45/bl. The gloomy economic outlook overshadowed a strong job report that showed the US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners. The IMF say tariffs represent a "significant risk" to the global outlook while US-based bank Goldman Sachs said Friday it has cut its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 600,000 b/d from 900,000 b/d, based on its economists' new view of economic growth. Adding price pressure this week has also been the unexpected plans by eight Opec+ members to unwind production cuts faster , upping output in May by 411,000 b/d. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

04/04/25

Egyptian rebar clears EU customs as merchant bar

London, 4 April (Argus) — Egyptian rebar has cleared at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda under a product code that sits under a different EU quota category, a mill test certificate sent to rebar buyers and obtained by Argus shows. The documentation shows a parcel of steel products with the properties and specifications of rebar registered under HS code 722830, which is for hot-rolled bar, not rebar. The material is supplied by an Egyptian steel mill, and the mill test certificate obtained by Argus contains the assertion "HS code for rebar is: 72 28 30 69 00", followed by the signature of a senior quality engineer. The mill's website indicates it produces rebar, rebar in spools and rebar in coil, which fall respectively under the rebar and wire rod EU import quotas. Hot-rolled bar under the HS code 72283069 falls under category 12 for "non-alloy and other alloy merchant bars and light sections", for which there is currently no import restriction on Egyptian material. A trading company is thought to have discharged at least 17,000t of rebar and rebar in coils at Klaipeda on 28 March, after loading at the Egyptian port of Alexandria on 24 February. But it is not clear how much material in total has passed through customs or under which HS codes. As of 1 April, the EU's Egyptian rebar quota is capped at about 27,500t, after previously having had no limitation within the "other countries" allocation of about 138,000t. Some market participants estimated that there were about 80,000t of Egyptian rebar waiting to clear at EU ports on 1 April, but only about 30,000t cleared under the rebar quota on the first day, according to market participants, meaning duties paid by companies clearing material on that day will not be as high as feared. Trade data also show that Bulgaria imported 17,000t of hot-rolled bar from Egypt under HS 72283069 in January 2025, nearly three times as much as the whole EU imported in the full year of 2024 or 2023, a sign that companies are increasingly keen to seek ways around EU safeguards as they tighten. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

04/04/25

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

04/04/25

Trump talks up tariff deals as markets slide

Washington, 4 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump held out prospects of a negotiated reduction in high tariffs targeting key US trading partners while insisting that import taxes are here to say. Trump via his social media platform said today he spoke with Vietnam Communist Party leader To Lam, who promised to cut their tariffs to zero on US products. Under the plan Trump unveiled on 2 April, US imports from Vietnam will be subject to a 46pc tariff. Trump late Thursday told reporters that a deal on tariffs is possible "if somebody said that we're going to give you something that's so phenomenal." He mentioned a possible deal with China over the sale of social platform TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance. "We have a situation with Tiktok where China will probably say, we'll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariff?", Trump said. The Trump administration is forcing ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US company, but Beijing must approve the sale. "The tariffs give us great power to negotiate," Trump said. But China's commerce ministry today unveiled a 34pc tariff on all imports from the US from 10 April, and vowed that no exemptions will be granted, unlike in its previous round of tit-for-tat tariffs on US commodities. Trump on 2 April announced a 10pc baseline tax on all foreign imports starting on 5 April, while many major US trading partners would be subject to an even higher tax beginning on 9 April. Imports from the EU would be subject to a 20pc tariff beginning on 9 April and imports from China subject to a 34pc tariff in addition to the previously imposed 20pc tariffs. "CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!", Trump said on social media after the announcement from Beijing. Trump's executive order exempted energy commodities and many critical minerals from new tariffs, as well as trade already covered under the US Mexico Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). But oil and stock markets continued to slide today as economists and investors concluded that the US tariffs and potential foreign counter-measures would lead to a protracted trade war and reduce economic growth globally. The latest tariffs are likely to cut global growth rates by 0.5 percentage points and reduce US GDP growth by 1pc in 2025-26, analysts with investment bank Standard Chartered said in a note to clients today. Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell, speaking at a conference in Arlington, Virginia, today, warned that the latest bout of tariffs will lead to "higher inflation and slower growth." IMF executive director Kristalina Georgieva issued a similar warning on Thursday evening. Trump retorted via his social media platform that "This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates." What's next? Despite touting possible deals to avoid high tariffs, Trump also said today that investors planning to move manufacturing to the US should expect no changes in his tariff policies. Trump's cabinet also struggled to articulate what comes next, with commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying that Trump would not lift the tariffs announced this week, while treasury secretary Scott Bessent said deals over tariff levels were possible. Secretary of state Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters on a trip to Brussels, Belgium, said that "it's not fair to say that the economies are crashing — markets are crashing because markets are based on the stock value of companies who today are embedded in modes of production that are bad for the US. "The markets will adjust business around the world, including in trade," Rubio said. "They just need to know what the rules are." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Silicon, ferro-silicon hit by US tariffs

04/04/25

Silicon, ferro-silicon hit by US tariffs

London, 4 April (Argus) — Silicon and ferro-silicon prices in the US are likely to surge because of steep tariffs on imports announced this week, while prices in Europe might fall as countries hit by high tariffs redirect material to the EU. The tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 2 April exempted a number of minor metals and ferro-alloys, listed in Annex II of the executive order, but ferro-silicon and silicon metal of less than 99.99pc purity were not among the exemptions. The US steel industry is a major consumer of imported silicon products. The tariffs are the second major US trade announcement on ferro-silicon in two weeks after the International Trade Administration (ITA) determined anti-dumping duty rates against ferro-silicon imports from Brazil, Malaysia and Kazakhstan on 25 March. A final decision on anti-dumping duties is due on 12 May, and it remains to be seen how the new tariffs will impact the ITA's decision. Several major silicon and ferro-silicon producing countries are now subject to Trump's adjusted reciprocal tariffs, above the 10pc applied to all imports. Vietnam now has one of the highest tariff burdens at 46pc, Kazakhstan is subject to 27pc and Malaysia to 24pc. The countries have been major suppliers of silicon products to the US. In 2024, the US imported 27,084t of ferro-silicon from Malaysia, 13,119t from Vietnam and 10,262t from Kazakhstan. Silicon and ferro-silicon producer Ferroglobe, which has operations in the US, Canada and Europe, and which petitioned for the anti-dumping duties before the ITA, says it is too early to predict the full impact of the tariffs. "As a vertically integrated local producer in both the US and the EU, we believe that Ferroglobe will benefit from a more level playing field in both markets," the producer said. But sellers of heavily-tariffed material have taken immediate steps to reduce their exposure. "I just cancelled a lot of vessels from Vietnam because you cannot pay a 46pc tariff," a trader said on Thursday. Countries with lower tariffs stand to benefit if prices surge. A producer in one such country told Argus he expects his company's margins and market share in the US to increase. Brazil is subject to only a 10pc tariff, making Brazilian producers now among the most affordable for the US market. The US imported 59,971t of silicon metal and 33,182t of ferro-silicon from Brazil in 2024, comprising 40pc and 21pc of total silicon and ferro-silicon imports, respectively. Iceland is also subject to the base 10pc tariff, although for silicon metal there is a pre-existing anti-dumping duty on PCC BakkiSilicon at 47.54pc, and 37.83pc on all other sales from Iceland. Norway's tariff was set at 16pc, making it more competitive than the EU, which is subject to 20pc. The US imported 9pc of its silicon metal from Norway in 2024. Norwegian silicon and ferro-silicon producer Elkem, which exports silicon-based products to the US from Canada, Paraguay, Iceland and Norway, told Argus the company will be increasing prices on all products going to the US. "Given that the US is a net importer of our products, we expect prices in the US to increase by more than the raised tariffs on Elkem's products," the company said. US exports might be redirected to EU The European ferro-silicon market has been rattled by concerns of dumping in Europe. Many expect more affordable material from Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Malaysia to flood the European market because of trade diversions from the US. A European producer expects large quantities of ferro-silicon to flood the market. "I am very afraid that Kazakhstan especially can ship material to Europe and will take the risk," he said. The EU has said it will take steps to prevent dumping of cheap goods in Europe. But with the European steel industry under pressure from the tariffs, the EU might hesitate to take measures that could increase costs for the steel sector. EU safeguard investigation could face delays The European ferro-silicon and silicon industries have already struggled to compete with affordable imports from third-country competitors with lower production costs. On 19 December, the European Commission announced a safeguard investigation on imports of silicon, ferro-silicon and manganese alloys. Many market participants expected a decision on trade protection measures in April. Some traders have held on to stock in the hope of prices increasing after the announcement. But now producers, traders and consumers told Argus this week that they expect any decision on safeguarding the ferro-alloy industry to be delayed until tariff negotiations have been concluded. Some planned meetings on the measures have been cancelled, the producer heard, as priorities have shifted. A trader with stocks in Europe told Argus that if he hears confirmation that the safeguard announcement will be delayed, he and other traders will look to sell material. "Prices are only inflamed because of the safeguarding," the trader said. "If it's a six-month delay, prices might stay firm, but if it's a year, we can't wait." By Maeve Flaherty Additional reporting from Samuel Wood Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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