US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals
11/04/25

US consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April, reaching lower levels than during the Great Recession in 2008, as inflation expectations surged to four-decade highs.

The preliminary consumer sentiment gauge fell to 50.8 in April, below the 55.3 end-of-month level it reached in November 2008 during the start of the Great Recession, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading for April. The only lower reading in records going back to 1952 was in mid-2022 during Covid-19.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7pc this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5pc last month.

Sentiment fell by 10.9pc from 57 in March and has lost more than 30pc since December 2024 "... amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year."

"Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate," the survey said.

The index of current economic conditions fell to 56.5 in April from 63.8 the prior month.

The index of consumer expectations fell to 47.2 this month from 52.6 in March.

The proportion of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead rose for a fifth month and is more than double the November 2024 result.

Interviews for the report were done between 25 March and 8 April, ending prior to the 9 April partial reversal of US tariffs.

By Bob Willis

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17/04/25

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid

Mumbai, 17 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled upstream firm ONGC has won 15 of the 28 blocks offered for bidding in the ninth round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's (HELP's) Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP). Three of these were with ONGC's joint venture with state-run Oil India, while another was in a consortium with BP and private-sector refiner Reliance Industries (RIL). This is the first time BP, RIL and ONGC have partnered and won a shallow-water block in the Saurashtra basin. ONGC has a 40pc stake in the consortium, with RIL and BP having 30pc each, a trading source said. RIL-BP had jointly won an ultra-deepwater block in the Krishna Godavari basin in the eighth round. Private-sector Vedanta, which had bid for all 28 oil and gas blocks, won seven blocks. Oil India won six blocks on its own and three in collaboration with ONGC. Private-sector firm Sun Petrochemicals, which had bid for seven blocks in this ninth round, did not secure any blocks. Interest from the private sector was relatively higher in this bidding round, but it remains mostly dominated by state-controlled firms. Foreign participation in the Indian exploration sector remains low. The ninth round saw 28 blocks auctioned(https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2524414) across an area of 136,596.45 km². India has awarded 144 exploration and production blocks comprising a total area of 242,055 km² in eight previous rounds. India in March passed the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill 2024 , which aims to simplify regulations, attract investment, and enhance exploration and production capabilities. It also allows granting oil leases on stable terms, along with sharing of production facilities and infrastructure. It also scrapped the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production in December 2024. The ministry said it is working on new frameworks to address challenges related to the upstream sector. India imports around 89pc of its crude requirements, despite efforts to reduce its dependency on imports. Crude imports in January-February rose by over 1pc on the year to 5.01mn b/d, oil ministry data show. During the same period, its total crude production fell by over 1pc from a year earlier to 539,000 b/d. By Roshni Devi India OALP blocks ninth bidding round Basin Type Block Area (km²) Awardee Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/1 9,514.63 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/2 9,844.72 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/3 7,795.45 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2023/1 5,330.49 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/1 5,585.61 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/2 5,453.96 ONGC - BPXA – RIL Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/1 2,939.56 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2023/1 ,5408.79 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/1 7,699.00 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/2 8,446.28 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/2 2,977.28 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/3 2,793.08 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2022/2 7,13.92 ONGC- OIL Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/1 1,873.66 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/1 446 OIL Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/2 636 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/3 416 ONGC Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/2 477 Vedanta Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/1 9,466.85 ONGC - OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/2 9,425.84 OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/3 9,831.48 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/1 9,495.16 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/2 9,223.22 OIL Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/1 2,935.19 ONGC Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/2 1,749.74 Vedanta Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/2 784 ONGC - OIL Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/3 2,168.09 OIL Kutch Basin Shallow water GK-OSHP_x0002_2023/1 3,164.61 ONGC Source: Oil ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March

17/04/25

Cyclones disrupt BHP iron ore sales in January-March

Sydney, 17 April (Argus) — Australian mineral producer BHP's iron ore sales fell by 3.9pc on the year in January-March, despite total production remaining largely flat, because of months of severe weather challenges in Australia. BHP iron ore output for the 2025 financial year will sit in the lower end of its 255mn-265.5mn t guidance , it said in February. BHP had expected to operate in the upper end of its guidance range before multiple cyclones hit Western Australia (WA) in January-February. The decline in BHP's production guidance comes entirely from its WA operations. The company increased its Brazilian Samarco iron ore production guidance closer to the upper end of its 5mn-5.5mn t range. BHP produced 1.6mn t of ore at Samarco in January-March, up by 39pc on the year. The company — which runs Samarco as a joint venture with Brazilian metal firm Vale — re-opened a concentration plant at the mine in December 2024. Total production at Samarco will reach 16mn t/yr by the end of the 2025 financial year, the company said on 17 April. But production declines at the company's WA mines were limited in January-March, decreasing by just 0.3pc on the year. This was partly because of the ramp up of production at BHP's South Flank mine in July-September 2024 . BHP's Samarco mine also buoyed its total iron ore sales in January-March. Exports from the site rose by 15pc on the year, partially offsetting a 4.3pc decline in shipments from the company's larger WA operations. Other producers also faced weather disruptions over January-March. Australian producer Mineral Resources revised down its 2025 iron ore production guidance by up to 2.4mn t after Cyclone Sean. Rio Tinto also lost 13mn t of shipments and will likely only reach the lower end of its production guidance range of 323mn-338mn t in 2025. By Avinash Govind BHP iron ore quarterly results Jan-Mar '25 Oct-Dec '24 Jan-March '24 q-o-q % ± y-o-y % ± Proudction (mn t) Western Australia 60.1 64.8 60.3 -7.1 -0.3 Samarco 1.6 1.5 1.2 11.1 39.3 Total 61.8 66.2 61.5 -6.7 0.5 Sales (mn t) Western Australia 59.2 64.3 61.9 -7.9 -4.3 Samarco 1.4 1.5 1.3 -4.2 14.9 Total 60.7 65.8 63.1 -7.9 -3.9 Source: BHP Argus' iron ore fines 62pc Fe price ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall

16/04/25

HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall

Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Total Brazilian electric vehicle (EVs) sales were up in the first quarter, driven by increasing demand for hybrid vehicles (HEVs) as sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) tumbled. Overall EV sales in Brazil grew by almost 40pc in the first three months of the year to 50,074 units, led by HEVs — including plug-ins (PHEVs), non-plug-ins, and mild hybrids (MHEVs) — which saw a 70.5pc surge compared to the same period in 2024, according to Fenabrave, a private body that represents car dealerships in Brazil. EVs made up 12.5pc of the total Brazilian car market, a three percentage point increase year-on-year. PHEVs were the most popular choice for consumers seeking an EV, with 19,530 units sold on the first quarter, up 83.6pc from last year, according to data from the Brazilian electric vehicles' association (ABVE). BEVs accounted for 12,993 units sold, while MHEVs — vehicles with regular engines aided by small batteries that increase fuel efficiency but do not power the wheels — accounted for 10,724 units sold. A total of 7,402 non-plug-in HEVs were sold in the quarter. Although HEV sales rose, BEVs tumbled 8.3pc due to general consumer skepticism about the Brazilian charging infrastructure and increasing popularity of PHEVs because of its above-average fuel efficiency and the possibility of driving on regular fuels, such as gasoline and ethanol. BYD increases market dominance BYD, a Chinese carmaker, further increased its EV market share in Brazil in the first quarter on aggressive discounts for its HEVs. The Chinese brand, which only sells plug-ins and BEVs, offered discounts of over R20,000 ($3,400) per car plus other benefits in excess of R10,000 ($1,700) for their PHEVs. BYD sold around 11,710 PHEV units, more than double from the same period in 2024, and accounted for 31.4pc of the total HEV market in the first quarter, according to Fenabrave. Fiat, which debuted in the EV segment in November and only markets MHEVs, sold 7,400 units, taking second place with a 19.8pc market share in January-March. Great Wall Motors (GWM), another Chinese automaker, closed out the top three with 5,880 units in the period, holding 15.8pc market share. PHEVs are becoming increasingly popular in Brazil even in regions with a solid charging infrastructure, according to ABVE. Major cities such as Sao Paulo and Brasilia — the country's capital — were among the top plug-in buyers due to the possibility of daily driving in electric mode and travelling long ranges on hybrid. BYD's plug-ins can drive for 745 miles on a single tank of gas, on a fully charged battery and loaded tank. All types of EVs in Brazil are eligible for a yearly tax exemption of up to 4pc of the car's value in most states. Although BEV sales were down, BYD still managed to increase its dominant place in the market. The Chinese automaker sold 9,680 EVs in the first three months of the year, more than 75pc of the nearly 12,880 units sold in the period. According to the company, 7 out of 10 BEVs sold in Brazil are from BYD. Volvo followed with almost 1,200 sold EVs and GWM had the third-highest sales figures at just 814. Overall, BYD owns 42.7pc of the total Brazilian EV market, followed by Fiat at 14.8pc and GWM, with a 13.4pc market share. The two Chinese brands both plan to start manufacturing cars in Brazil by year's end. BYD also acquired mining rights for two separate lithium sites in the country in an effort to streamline its whole operation in the country, as it figures as its largest market outside of China. By Pedro Consoli Brazil EV sales units Brand 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 ±% Market share (%) Total EVs (BEVs, HEVs) BYD 21,384 14,920 43.3 42.7 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 14.8 GWM 6,693 5,735 16.7 13.4 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -16.2 8.5 Volvo 2,097 1,606 30.5 4.2 Mercedes Benz 1,765 1,166 51.3 3.5 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 2.4 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 2.4 BMW 911 825 10.4 1.8 Porsche 687 41 1,575.6 1.4 Total (hybrid vehicles, EVs) 50,074 35,872 39.6 100 Electric vehicles (BEVs) BYD 9,678 10,052 -4 75.1 Volvo 1,196 596 101 9.2 GWM 814 1,892 -57 6.3 BMW 219 238 -8 1.7 Renault 176 187 -6 1.3 Porsche 155 41 278.0 1.2 Zeekr 141 n/a n/a 1.0 Mini 124 34 265 1.0 JAC 107 457 77 0.8 Mercedes Benz 38 39 -3 0.3 Total (EVs) 12,877 14,053 -8 100 Hybrid vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, MHEVs) BYD 11,706 4,868 140.4 31.4 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 19.9 GWM 5,879 3,843 52.9 15.8 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -15.2 11.5 Mercedes Benz 1,727 1,127 53.2 4.6 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 3.2 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 3.2 Volvo 901 1,010 -10.7 2.4 BMW 692 587 17.8 1.9 Jaguar Land Rover 627 816 -23.1 1.7 Total (hybrid vehicles) 37,197 21,819 70.5 100 Does not include all brands sold Source: Fenabrave 1Q Brazil electrified vehicles sales units Brazil EV year-on-year comparison per type units Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild

16/04/25

Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild

Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Brazil-based mining group Vale's nickel production rose in the first quarter by 11pc from the same period last year, when the company's Onça Puma mine's furnace was being rebuilt. Total nickel production rose to 43,900 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, up from 39,500t a year earlier, Vale said Tuesday. Brazilian operations produced 5,400t of finished nickel in the quarter, compared to none a year earlier. Canadian nickel production rose by 18pc to 20,000t, as Voisey's Bay's output climbed on the year by 47pc to 6,500t and Thompson mines output surged by 51pc to 3,600t. Higher production was intended to build inventories ahead of scheduled maintenance at its Canadian refineries during the upcoming quarters, Vale said. Vale plans as much as five weeks of maintenance at its Creighton mine in the third quarter, with shorter outages scheduled for Thompson and Long Harbour stretching into the fourth quarter. Nickel sales volumes stood 5pc below production at 38,900t but marked an 18pc increase from a year earlier. Vale's nickel prices averaged at $16,100/t in the quarter, down by 4.4pc year-on-year, reflecting lower London Metal exchange (LME) prices. Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran says uranium enrichment 'not up for negotiation'

16/04/25

Iran says uranium enrichment 'not up for negotiation'

Dubai, 16 April (Argus) — Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said uranium enrichment is non-negotiable after US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff suggested any new nuclear deal would require a halt. "We are open to acknowledging and answering concerns [about our nuclear programme] in order to help build trust," Araqchi told reporters in Tehran. "But the core issue of Iran enriching uranium is not up for negotiation." Araqchi was responding to questions about a social media post made by Witkoff on 15 April in which he suggested that any new nuclear deal would require Iran to "stop and eliminate" its enrichment of uranium. In a television interview the day before, Witkoff indicated that Washington just wanted Iran to abide by the 3.67pc enrichment threshold that was agreed in the previous nuclear deal that US president Donald Trump pulled out of in 2018. Witkoff's apparent shift in stance was echoed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on 15 April, who said: "The president does not want to see Iran have a nuclear programme. He does not want Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon." Araqchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation in the talks, said such "contradictory" comments by US officials are "not helpful". Aracqhi and Witkoff are due to meet on 19 April for a second round of talks, which were initially scheduled to be held in Oman but and now due to take place in Rome, according to Iran's state broadcaster IRIB. Both Tehran and Washington described the first round of talks in Oman on 12 April as "positive and constructive." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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