US consumer sentiment 2nd lowest on record: Survey

Market: Crude oil, Metals
11/04/25

US consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in April, reaching lower levels than during the Great Recession in 2008, as inflation expectations surged to four-decade highs.

The preliminary consumer sentiment gauge fell to 50.8 in April, below the 55.3 end-of-month level it reached in November 2008 during the start of the Great Recession, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading for April. The only lower reading in records going back to 1952 was in mid-2022 during Covid-19.

Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 6.7pc this month, the highest reading since 1981, from 5pc last month.

Sentiment fell by 10.9pc from 57 in March and has lost more than 30pc since December 2024 "... amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year."

"Consumers report multiple warning signs that raise the risk of recession: expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation, and labor markets all continued to deteriorate," the survey said.

The index of current economic conditions fell to 56.5 in April from 63.8 the prior month.

The index of consumer expectations fell to 47.2 this month from 52.6 in March.

The proportion of consumers who expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead rose for a fifth month and is more than double the November 2024 result.

Interviews for the report were done between 25 March and 8 April, ending prior to the 9 April partial reversal of US tariffs.

By Bob Willis

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16/04/25

HEVs drive Brazil's 1Q EV sales up as BEVs fall

Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Total Brazilian electric vehicle (EVs) sales were up in the first quarter, driven by increasing demand for hybrid vehicles (HEVs) as sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) tumbled. Overall EV sales in Brazil grew by almost 40pc in the first three months of the year to 50,074 units, led by HEVs — including plug-ins (PHEVs), non-plug-ins, and mild hybrids (MHEVs) — which saw a 70.5pc surge compared to the same period in 2024, according to Fenabrave, a private body that represents car dealerships in Brazil. EVs made up 12.5pc of the total Brazilian car market, a three percentage point increase year-on-year. PHEVs were the most popular choice for consumers seeking an EV, with 19,530 units sold on the first quarter, up 83.6pc from last year, according to data from the Brazilian electric vehicles' association (ABVE). BEVs accounted for 12,993 units sold, while MHEVs — vehicles with regular engines aided by small batteries that increase fuel efficiency but do not power the wheels — accounted for 10,724 units sold. A total of 7,402 non-plug-in HEVs were sold in the quarter. Although HEV sales rose, BEVs tumbled 8.3pc due to general consumer skepticism about the Brazilian charging infrastructure and increasing popularity of PHEVs because of its above-average fuel efficiency and the possibility of driving on regular fuels, such as gasoline and ethanol. BYD increases market dominance BYD, a Chinese carmaker, further increased its EV market share in Brazil in the first quarter on aggressive discounts for its HEVs. The Chinese brand, which only sells plug-ins and BEVs, offered discounts of over R20,000 ($3,400) per car plus other benefits in excess of R10,000 ($1,700) for their PHEVs. BYD sold around 11,710 PHEV units, more than double from the same period in 2024, and accounted for 31.4pc of the total HEV market in the first quarter, according to Fenabrave. Fiat, which debuted in the EV segment in November and only markets MHEVs, sold 7,400 units, taking second place with a 19.8pc market share in January-March. Great Wall Motors (GWM), another Chinese automaker, closed out the top three with 5,880 units in the period, holding 15.8pc market share. PHEVs are becoming increasingly popular in Brazil even in regions with a solid charging infrastructure, according to ABVE. Major cities such as Sao Paulo and Brasilia — the country's capital — were among the top plug-in buyers due to the possibility of daily driving in electric mode and travelling long ranges on hybrid. BYD's plug-ins can drive for 745 miles on a single tank of gas, on a fully charged battery and loaded tank. All types of EVs in Brazil are eligible for a yearly tax exemption of up to 4pc of the car's value in most states. Although BEV sales were down, BYD still managed to increase its dominant place in the market. The Chinese automaker sold 9,680 EVs in the first three months of the year, more than 75pc of the nearly 12,880 units sold in the period. According to the company, 7 out of 10 BEVs sold in Brazil are from BYD. Volvo followed with almost 1,200 sold EVs and GWM had the third-highest sales figures at just 814. Overall, BYD owns 42.7pc of the total Brazilian EV market, followed by Fiat at 14.8pc and GWM, with a 13.4pc market share. The two Chinese brands both plan to start manufacturing cars in Brazil by year's end. BYD also acquired mining rights for two separate lithium sites in the country in an effort to streamline its whole operation in the country, as it figures as its largest market outside of China. By Pedro Consoli Brazil EV sales units Brand 1Q 2025 1Q 2024 ±% Market share (%) Total EVs (BEVs, HEVs) BYD 21,384 14,920 43.3 42.7 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 14.8 GWM 6,693 5,735 16.7 13.4 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -16.2 8.5 Volvo 2,097 1,606 30.5 4.2 Mercedes Benz 1,765 1,166 51.3 3.5 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 2.4 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 2.4 BMW 911 825 10.4 1.8 Porsche 687 41 1,575.6 1.4 Total (hybrid vehicles, EVs) 50,074 35,872 39.6 100 Electric vehicles (BEVs) BYD 9,678 10,052 -4 75.1 Volvo 1,196 596 101 9.2 GWM 814 1,892 -57 6.3 BMW 219 238 -8 1.7 Renault 176 187 -6 1.3 Porsche 155 41 278.0 1.2 Zeekr 141 n/a n/a 1.0 Mini 124 34 265 1.0 JAC 107 457 77 0.8 Mercedes Benz 38 39 -3 0.3 Total (EVs) 12,877 14,053 -8 100 Hybrid vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, MHEVs) BYD 11,706 4,868 140.4 31.4 Fiat 7,400 n/a n/a 19.9 GWM 5,879 3,843 52.9 15.8 Toyota 4,277 5,049 -15.2 11.5 Mercedes Benz 1,727 1,127 53.2 4.6 Honda 1,207 567 112.8 3.2 Caoa Chery 1,203 2,105 -42.8 3.2 Volvo 901 1,010 -10.7 2.4 BMW 692 587 17.8 1.9 Jaguar Land Rover 627 816 -23.1 1.7 Total (hybrid vehicles) 37,197 21,819 70.5 100 Does not include all brands sold Source: Fenabrave 1Q Brazil electrified vehicles sales units Brazil EV year-on-year comparison per type units Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild

16/04/25

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16/04/25

Vale’s Ni output rises 11pc after furnace rebuild

Sao Paulo, 16 April (Argus) — Brazil-based mining group Vale's nickel production rose in the first quarter by 11pc from the same period last year, when the company's Onça Puma mine's furnace was being rebuilt. Total nickel production rose to 43,900 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, up from 39,500t a year earlier, Vale said Tuesday. Brazilian operations produced 5,400t of finished nickel in the quarter, compared to none a year earlier. Canadian nickel production rose by 18pc to 20,000t, as Voisey's Bay's output climbed on the year by 47pc to 6,500t and Thompson mines output surged by 51pc to 3,600t. Higher production was intended to build inventories ahead of scheduled maintenance at its Canadian refineries during the upcoming quarters, Vale said. Vale plans as much as five weeks of maintenance at its Creighton mine in the third quarter, with shorter outages scheduled for Thompson and Long Harbour stretching into the fourth quarter. Nickel sales volumes stood 5pc below production at 38,900t but marked an 18pc increase from a year earlier. Vale's nickel prices averaged at $16,100/t in the quarter, down by 4.4pc year-on-year, reflecting lower London Metal exchange (LME) prices. Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iran says uranium enrichment 'not up for negotiation'

16/04/25

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16/04/25

Iran says uranium enrichment 'not up for negotiation'

Dubai, 16 April (Argus) — Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said uranium enrichment is non-negotiable after US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff suggested any new nuclear deal would require a halt. "We are open to acknowledging and answering concerns [about our nuclear programme] in order to help build trust," Araqchi told reporters in Tehran. "But the core issue of Iran enriching uranium is not up for negotiation." Araqchi was responding to questions about a social media post made by Witkoff on 15 April in which he suggested that any new nuclear deal would require Iran to "stop and eliminate" its enrichment of uranium. In a television interview the day before, Witkoff indicated that Washington just wanted Iran to abide by the 3.67pc enrichment threshold that was agreed in the previous nuclear deal that US president Donald Trump pulled out of in 2018. Witkoff's apparent shift in stance was echoed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on 15 April, who said: "The president does not want to see Iran have a nuclear programme. He does not want Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon." Araqchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation in the talks, said such "contradictory" comments by US officials are "not helpful". Aracqhi and Witkoff are due to meet on 19 April for a second round of talks, which were initially scheduled to be held in Oman but and now due to take place in Rome, according to Iran's state broadcaster IRIB. Both Tehran and Washington described the first round of talks in Oman on 12 April as "positive and constructive." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan’s Honda to produce more cars in US, less locally

16/04/25

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16/04/25

Japan’s Honda to produce more cars in US, less locally

Tokyo, 16 April (Argus) — Japanese car producer Honda will produce a car model at its US facility instead of its domestic facility from as early as June, the company told Argus today, possibly to avoid the US' tariffs on foreign car deliveries. Honda will stop manufacturing the Civic Hybrid 5-door model at the country's eastern Yorii plant during June-July and switch the production to its US plant in the state of Indianna, the representative of the firm told Argus . Honda produced 3,000 units of the model during February and March, he added. This comes as part of the company's mid-to long term "optimisation strategy", according to the firm, reiterating that theproduction switch is not a countermeasure against the US' across-the-board 25pc tariff on automobile imports that took effect on 3 April. But this may not be entirely convincing since Honda just started producing the model in February, leaving room for speculation that the transfer is part of a wider strategy to reduce delivery costs to the US market. Honda did not disclose whether the Indiana plant will procure auto parts from its suppliers in Canada or Mexico . Japanese auto industry is still bracing for further developments in the US tariff policy on automobile and auto parts, although US president Donald Trump on 14 April suggested possibly pausing the tariff. Tokyo and Washington will hold a ministerial talk this week to negotiate trade issues, including the levy on auto delivery, along with the 24pc "reciprocal" tariffs the Trump administration separately imposed on Japanese imports. Japanese government is hoping to negotiate for a better tariff deal during the 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariff imposition by the US government, and the automobile industry is seen as a key sector to settle the deal. The US president has long expressed his dissatisfaction against the auto trade imbalance between two countries. Japan exported around 1.3mn units of passenger vehicles to the US in 2024, while Japan purchased around 23,000 units of US passenger vehicles in 2023. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ overproducers issue new compensation plans

16/04/25

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16/04/25

Opec+ overproducers issue new compensation plans

Dubai, 16 April (Argus) — Seven of the eight Opec+ members that began a gradual unwinding of a combined 2.2mn b/d output cut this month have submitted updated schedules for how they plan to compensate for producing above their respective quotas since the start of 2024. The schedules, released by the Opec secretariat today, show Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia are planning to produce around 305,000 b/d below their combined production targets on average from April through June 2026 ( see table ). This is to compensate for exceeding their production targets by a cumulative 4.573mn b/d between January 2024 and March 2025, the secretariat said. This figure does not represent a monthly average, but rather the sum of the monthly amount by which the overproducers surpassed their respective output ceilings in this period. It works out to an average monthly overproduction of 305,000 b/d. Algeria is the only country in the group of eight that did not overproduce in that stretch, and therefore does not have to compensate. The previous schedule , which was published in the third week of March, envisaged the seven producing around 263,000 b/d below their combined targets on average from March through June 2026. That was to clear 4.203mn b/d of cumulative overproduction between January 2024 and February 2025, or 300,000 b/d on average per month over that period. This latest schedule factors in the decision by these seven countries, and Algeria, earlier this month to speed up the return of a 2.2mn b/d cut by lifting the group's overall production target in May by 411,000 b/d ꟷ three times more than it had originally planned. If implemented fully these compensation cuts should at least largely offset much of the production increases that would be allowed by the Opec+ group of eight's planned unwind through to the second half of 2026. At most, the compensation cuts would more than offset the planned increases for some months, including for this month. But with serial over-producers Iraq and Kazakhstan responsible for delivering the biggest chunk of these compensatory cuts through to the middle of next year, there is no guarantee of full implementation. By Nader Itayim Opec+ overproduction compensation plan* b/d Month Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Kazakhstan Oman Russia Total Apr-25 120 8 15 5 63 5 6 222 May-25 140 15 0 10 116 12 85 378 Jun-25 140 23 10 132 15 111 431 Jul-25 135 30 10 126 17 137 455 Aug-25 130 38 10 141 19 163 501 Sep-25 135 37 10 135 14 189 520 Oct-25 135 10 160 15 320 Nov-25 135 20 114 269 Dec-25 130 20 69 219 Jan-26 125 33 49 207 Feb-26 125 33 38 196 Mar-26 124 33 40 197 Apr-26 120 57 38 215 May-26 120 62 42 224 Jun-26 120 63 36 219 Average reduction 305 *monthly reduction pledge in addition to existing targets Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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