Refinery repairs, imports ease Venezuelan gasoline gap

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Oil products
01/02/21

Refinery repairs and the arrival of more Iranian gasoline have given Venezuela another breather from its chronic gasoline shortage.

State-owned PdV's 305,000 b/d Cardon refinery, the focus of its repair efforts, restarted gasoline and diesel production early yesterday after divers patched a ruptured crude supply pipeline that runs under Lake Maracaibo, according to three refinery officials.

Cardon currently is producing a combined 46,000 b/d of gasoline, including 22,000 b/d from its 86,000 b/d fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) and 24,000 b/d from its 54,000 b/d naphtha reformer.

Cardon's distillation unit 2 (CD-2) is processing just over 47,000 b/d of medium quality crude transported through the 143mi (230km) Ule pipeline that runs from mature fields on the east coast of the lake to the 940,000 b/d CRP refining complex on Paraguana.

The CRP complex, which PdV operates as an integrated facility, includes Cardon and the nearby 635,000 b/d Amuay refinery.

At Amuay, a single operational distillation unit integrated with a VGO unit is processing almost 65,300 b/d of medium quality crude.

Amuay's distillation unit 4 has been written off as a total loss after an October 2020 vapor blast inflicted catastrophic structural damage, according to a CRP manager.

The CRP is producing around 23,000 b/d of diesel overall. Together with 15,000 b/d of production at PdV's 190,000 b/d Puerto La Cruz refinery, the company is supplying up to 38,000 b/d of high-sulfur diesel.

Diesel supply has drawn extra scrutiny after the previous US administration banned crude-for-diesel swaps by non-US companies as part of its "maximum pressure" campaign against President Nicolas Maduro's government. The new US administration is considering reversing the ban as a humanitarian measure, potentially easing oil export bottlenecks and replenishing Venezuelan stocks of imported low-sulfur diesel.

The oil ministry estimates domestic gasoline demand at about 110,000 b/d. Diesel for transport and power generation, among other uses, is around 100,000 b/d.

The Maduro government has been rationing gasoline for more than a year as PdV struggles to repair and sustain a small part of its 1.3mn b/d refining system. Caracas blames US sanctions for the breakdowns. Critics point the finger at the government for years of neglect, corruption, labor flight and unsteady electricity supply.

Four PdV officials at the Jose and Guaraguao terminals in eastern Venezuela tell Argus that the Iran-flagged Faxon and Fortune arrived over the past week with over 400,000 bl of gasoline.

The tankers are among a handful that delivered gasoline and alkylate to Venezuela on two previous occasions last year, sparking an outcry from Washington. Caracas and Tehran are both targets of US sanctions.

In what has become a routine practice in Venezuela, the tankers have their transponders switched off.

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01/04/25

Canada oil producers get 6pc 1Q lift on weaker currency

Calgary, 1 April (Argus) — A depreciating Canadian dollar is giving oil sands producers an extra lift and complementing relatively strong domestic crude prices to help weather tariff concerns. The Canadian dollar, on average, was worth C$1.44 to one US dollar in January-March 2025, weakening from C$1.35 to the greenback in the same quarter 2024, according to the Bank of Canada. That represents a more than 6pc advantage to Canadian producers selling crude in US dollars who then turn those earnings around to pay workers and suppliers in local currency. The outright price for heavy sour Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty, Alberta, settled at $58.67/bl in the first quarter this year, according to Argus data. This is only $1/bl higher than the same period last year, but with the now weaker Canadian dollar, that converts to over C$84/bl for producers who would have seen that under C$78/bl in the first quarter 2024. The Canadian dollar, on average, was worth C$1.37 to the US dollar in 2024, weakening from C$1.35 to the greenback in 2023 and the weakest annual average since 2003. The Bank of Canada largely attributes the sliding Canadian dollar to a rising foreign exchange rate risk premium, which relates to holding currencies other than the US dollar. This premium rises with uncertainty that has been amplified by US president Donald Trump's tariff actions in recent months, and that has also weighed on currencies from other economies, hitting developing countries' currencies harder than those of advanced economies. Also keeping the US dollar elevated is the US Federal Reserve's recent caution about resuming its cycle of cutting interest rates, thus attracting relatively more investors to US Treasury bills and boosting demand for US dollars. Canada meanwhile has brought its target rate lower to try to get ahead of an anticipated economic slowdown. The Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on [19 March](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2669490) held the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50pc for a second consecutive meeting after cutting at the last three meetings of 2024. The Bank of Canada a week earlier lowered its overnight rate for the seventh consecutive time to 2.75pc. Giving a more obvious boost to Canadian producers in the first quarter this year compared with a year earlier have been the appreciating domestic crude prices relative to the US light sweet benchmark, which has weakened across the same period. WCS trades at a discount to the Nymex WTI calendar month average (CMA) and that gap has narrowed on the back of new export pipeline capacity out of Canada, added in May 2024. WCS traded at about $12.75/bl under the WTI CMA across the first quarter this year, compared with a $19.25/bl discount a year earlier. More recent trade activity shows WCS for April-delivery narrowing further yet to within $10/bl under the basis — the tightest since April 2021 — with oil sands producers temporarily shutting in some production to embark on major maintenance . By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

01/04/25

Next US tariffs to take effect 'immediately'

Washington, 1 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump plans to announce a sweeping batch of tariffs on Wednesday afternoon that will take effect "immediately", the White House said today. Trump will unveil his much anticipated tariff decision Wednesday at 4pm ET during a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden. While the administration has announced the effective date, there is little clarity on what goods will face tariffs at what rates and against which countries, leaving the government agencies that will be tasked with enforcing new tariffs largely in the dark. "The president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower," the White House said today, brushing off criticism from economists, industry groups and investors. Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted in March as businesses braced for Trump's tariff threats. Trump has previewed or announced multiple tariff actions since taking office. The barriers in place now include a 20pc tariff on all imports from China, in effect since 4 March, and a 25pc tax on all imported steel and aluminum, in effect since 12 March. A 25pc tariff on all imported cars, trucks and auto parts, is scheduled to go into effect on 3 April, the White House confirmed today. Trump and his advisers have previewed two possible courses of action for 2 April. Trump has suggested that all major US trading partners are likely to see a broad increase in tariffs in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit and to raise more revenue for the US federal budget. But Trump separately has talked about the need for "reciprocal tariffs", contending that most foreign countries typically charge higher rates of tariffs on US exports than the US applies to imports from those countries. In that scenario, high tariffs become a negotiating tool to bring down alleged foreign barriers to US exports. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News on Monday night that the second course is the one Trump is more likely to take. Trump will announce "reciprocal tariffs" and "everyone will have the opportunity to lower their tariffs, lower their non-tariff barriers, stop the currency manipulation" and "make the global trading system fair for American workers again", Bessent said. But the White House insisted today that the new tariffs will not be a negotiating tool. Trump is "always up for a good negotiation, but he is very much focused on fixing the wrongs of the past and showing that American workers have a fair shake", the White House said. Trump's words and actions already have drawn retaliatory tariffs from Canada and China, and the EU is preparing to implement its first batch of counter-tariffs in April. Trump, for now, has deferred his tariff plans for imported Canadian and Mexican oil and other energy commodities. But the US oil and gas sector, which depends on pipelines and foreign-flagged vessels to transport its crude, natural gas, refined products and LNG, will feel the effects of tariffs on imported steel and proposed fees on Chinese-made and owned vessels calling at US ports. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February

01/04/25

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February

Singapore, 1 April (Argus) — Singapore's base oil imports increased for the third consecutive month in February, GTT data show, supported by stable demand in the city state. Import growth slowed in February, in line with a drop in industrial performance. The country's manufacturing output fell by 1.3pc on the year, and by 7.5pc on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, according to data from the Economic Development Board. The overall manufacturing sector grew for the 18th consecutive month, but PMI slipped from 50.9 to 50.7 in February, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management show, in line with growing uncertainties over global trade flows. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Supplies from South Korea recovered from January's five-month low, in line with higher exports from the northeast Asian country, but remained below the five-year monthly average of 12,300t. Lower South Korean volumes were balanced by higher receipts of Taiwanese cargoes, which were likely boosted by delays in customs clearance a month earlier. South Korea and Taiwan are major producers of Group II base oils. Zero imports were recorded from Japan for the third consecutive month. Exports from the Group I supplier have fallen ahead of a series of plant maintenances by Japanese refiners ENEOS and Idemitsu that will affect around 925,000t/yr of refining capacity over February-November. Increased Saudi Arabian cargoes made up for the shortfall in Japanese volumes, with imports recorded for the 10th consecutive month. Saudi Arabia produces Group I and II base oils, but supplies to Singapore likely comprise of mainly Group I volumes because of the regional shortage from permanent plant closures in Japan. By Tara Tang Singapore's base oil imports t Feb'25 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Jan-Feb'25 y-o-y ± % Qatar 23,135.0 -12.2 22.6 49,488.0 74.2 South Korea 9,090.0 30.2 -18.2 16,074.0 -9.3 Taiwan 12,458.0 NA 825.6 12,458.0 119.0 Saudi Arabia 5,306.0 76.9 5.7 8,306.0 65.5 Thailand 5,046.0 -16.4 152.8 11,081.0 234.3 Total 77,915.0 1.9 75.7 154,392.0 129.6 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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