Fertilizer Matters EP23: Asia Fertilizer Market, Nov 2024

Deon: Hi, everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Argus Fertilizer Matters podcast. My name is Deon Ngee, a senior reporter covering sulfur and sulfuric acid markets in Asia. I'm joined today by my colleague Dinise Chng, who is a senior reporter and covers the nitrogen and ammonia markets. Today we'll be doing a quick roundup of some key takeaways and observations from the IFA Fertilizer Crossroads Conference that was held in Hong Kong from 8 to 10 October. Hi Denise, welcome to the podcast. Could you share with us some of the hot topics you heard on your site during the conference?

Dinise: Hi Deon, thank you for having me. The hot topic in the urea market discussed throughout the IFA conference was the Indian urea tender. Urea sentiments were overall bullish in most regions for the short term, given the tightness of both Middle East and Southeast Asia. So we heard that India's RCF had secured and bought a total of 569,000 tonnes of urea from 10 suppliers under its 3rd October tender. Nine suppliers were supplied around 519,000 tonnes to the East Coast at $389 CFR, while on the West Coast side, liven had sold around 50,000 tonnes at $364 per tonne. Loading for the tender would be by 20th November.

But higher prices were expected in the short term post-IFA conference on the back of continued strong buying demand from India. We estimate that India has to procure an additional 1.4 million tonnes of urea by the end of the year as India kicks off its rabi season after a stronger-than-expected monsoon rainfall. This is also to avoid low stocks heading into the first quarter of the year. Market participants are now anticipating the next Indian urea purchase tender to emerge in the coming weeks.

Deon: That's nice to hear. So apart from India, are you hearing of any other demand from other regions?

Dinise: Well, interestingly apart from India, we hear during the conference that importers from other regions are still not ready to sum up these higher prices. Especially in Southeast Asia, buying demand was still relatively limited. There is some time before the next fertilizer application of demand begins in November to December in countries like Thailand and the Philippines. So importers are thus not in a hurry to secure cargoes and have sufficient time to build up inventories.

Also in Thailand, because urea inventories are very high with lots of stock still in the warehouses, this would likely dampen any fresh buying demand for the coming weeks. Importers are also unlikely to pay high prices for urea cargoes in the current situation. Similarly, in Australia, domestic demand for urea also continues to be lacklustre while inventory levels are robust thanks to continued urea deliveries.

Deon: That's nice to hear. How about the ammonia markets? What interesting insights do you have to share from the conference?

Dinise: Well, diving into the ammonia markets, we understand that overall market sentiment in the East is generally weaker. Throughout the conference, the main topic of discussion focused on differing market sentiments between industrial and fertilizer buyers. We see industrial ammonia end users faced with poorer downstream fundamentals and staying out of the current spot market.

A couple of industrial end users in the East are also scheduling turnarounds at their plants. For instance, in Thailand, we hear that UBE and PTT Asahi are expected to take their Acrylonitrile and Caprolactam plants offline for turnarounds. And this is also similarly observed in Taiwan, with CPCD taking its ACN and Caprolactam plants offline respectively in mid-October and December.

But fertilizer buyers are faced with slightly better downstream fundamentals. DAP producers are mainly able to pay up and are seeking more spot ammonia cargos for their DAP manufacturing, as seen in India and Vietnam. Purchasing activity from these buyers had been supporting recent spikes in traded spot cargos.

Deon: Oh, that's interesting. So other than purchasing activity from these buyers, are you hearing of any other reasons contributing to the rising ammonia prices in the East?

Dinise: Yes, indeed. Along with buying demand from fertilizer producers, we also heard of tighter spot availability in Southeast Asia, which is causing this spike in prices. So most producers are sold out for October loading, especially in Indonesia. We see major producer, Pupuk Indonesia diverting most of its ammonia production back to its domestic market for fertilizer manufacturing, which has limited overall supply.

Also, tighter supply from the Middle East due to outages at Mardin's production units has foamed up prices and market sentiments. There was also some talks on annual contract negotiations for the coming year, which is arriving for buyers. But it seems that most buyers are in no hurry to begin negotiations. In addition, some buyers are generally looking to only contract 60% of their annual forecast requirements in 2025 and fulfill their remaining demand by spot cargos. What about you? What do you hear on the sulfur and sulfuric acid side?

Deon: Well, in the sulfur space, there was some chatter on changing trade flows for molten sulfur in Asia. So after a producer announced that they were ceasing the operations from next year, well, the molten sulfur market has mostly been a contract market due to logistical restrictions. We are seeing an increasing trend of producers offering up more cargos on the spot market to key buyers in China. So this comes after some supply-side disruptions that caused some worry on contractual obligations.

So on the granular sulfur side, the market was pretty much on a standstill during the conference. On one hand, like you mentioned earlier on ammonia, we are also seeing tighter supply of sulfur from the Middle East owing to some production and logistical disruptions. So this resulted in higher offer levels to most destinations like China, with offers heard in the high 140s up to even the mid 150s CFR during the conference.

On the other hand, the Chinese port inventory still totaled 2.36 million tonnes at the beginning of the conference. It does have to be said that it still remains unclear if the traders holding on to these port stock are looking to hold on to the cargos and await even higher prices, which may then push the Chinese buyers to accept these higher-priced imports.

Dinise: Oh, that's very interesting. What about any discussions on the rest of Asia that we were hearing of during the conference?

Deon: Well, also in Asia, Indian buyers remain mostly out of the market, having already booked both sulfur and sulfuric acid cargos for the rest of the year. Adding to that, the high domestic supply from refineries in India also discouraged most importers from even entertaining any offers. However, an interesting topic that popped up during the conference was next year's contract volumes for Indonesia. Several buyers were already indicated to be looking to discuss more volumes for next year's contracts. And, you know, with so many new projects coming online each year, Indonesia still remain a key region in Asia and definitely something that everybody was talking about.

Dinise: Oh wow, it does seem like the market is on a wait-and-see mode for sulfur. So how would this affect the sulfuric acid market instead?

Deon: Well, when asked about spot availability in the coming months, most producers replied with tight and tighter, mostly due to scheduled maintenances as well as some smelters being already sold out for the rest of the year.

Dinise: I see it looks like very tight supply in the market. How would this affect prices on this end?

Deon: So, because most producers don't have any cargos to sell, the FOB prices are definitely on an uptrend and are favouring anybody holding on to any unsold volumes. So during the conference, there was some chatter about a deal done in the mid-50s FOB from China. However, these prices have proven to mostly be unworkable for buyers in Asia and will likely have to be taken in by markets like Chile or Morocco.

In India, buyers have mostly left the spot market after a flurry of buying activity over the past few weeks. But we do expect to still see some opportunistic buying take place depending on the kind of prices that they've been offered. In Southeast Asia, the market has definitely split into a two-tiered market, with some buyers being able to accept prices in the 90s CFR or even higher, while several others are instead looking to pay much below that. So those buying ideas were indicated in even the 70s or 80s levels.

Other than that, in the spot market, contract volumes for next year was also a hot topic at the conference. Tight copper-concentrated supply as well as low treatment and refining charges have also made some producers very nervous about production levels next year. Adding to that, the impending start-up of several smelters in Asia like Adani and Freeport Indonesia have also added to this uncertainty that was being felt in the conference. While some contract negotiations were already underway, we expect to see the usual negotiations to last for about another month or so before the prices come to light.

Dinise: Oh, I see. That's very interesting indeed. The upcoming months definitely seem like they will provide direction for the first quarter next year.

Deon: It does seem that way for the nitrogen and ammonia markets as well. I hope you enjoyed Hong Kong as much as I did. Thank you all for listening. If you would like to listen to more episodes about the Argus Fertilizer Matters podcast, please use the related links on the podcast page. Don't forget to look out for the next episode. For more information on our price reporting and outlook services, please visit our website at argusmedia.com/fertilizers. Thank you very much and have a great week ahead.