Viewpoint: Biodiesel output relies on HOBO as RINs fall

: Biofuels, Oil products
18/08/01

The US biodiesel industry is relying on stronger production margins to maintain output as the value of renewable credits hovers near three-year lows.

Biodiesel production levels reached 16.31mn bl in the first five months of 2018, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is about 21pc higher than the same period in 2017. The increase in output comes after Argentina and Indonesia were slapped with antidumping duties by the US in August 2017.

Producers have mainly benefited from a wider heating oil/soybean oil (HOBO) spread, which has reached levels not seen since 2014. The HOBO spread hit a high of +7¢/USG on 26 July, up 52¢/USG from -45¢/USG at the beginning of 2018. Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) prices are at four-year highs as crude prices remain supported by Opec countries' reduced output. Soybean oil prices are at levels not seen since late 2015 amid the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.

Yet the release of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 2019 renewable volume obligations (RVO) did not account for small refinery hardship waivers granted to 29 refineries. The agency has estimated there is a total of 3.06bn carryover RINs, about 15pc of the total 2019 RVO and 840mn RINs more than what was anticipated when the 2018 RVO levels were set. The waivers have put intense pressure on the value of biomass-based diesel D4 RINs, which has curbed incentives for increasing biodiesel blending. Under the proposed 2019 RVO, blending obligations will increase 3.1pc to 19.88bn USG, but that has not been enough to limit losses on RIN values.

Following the EPA's proposal, the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the EIA lowered the agency's forecasted biodiesel production for 2018 by 6,000 b/d to average 131,000 b/d. The forecast for 2019 output was lowered by 5,000 b/d to an estimated 144,000 b/d.

Blending economics could see a significant boost in profitability with the reinstatement of the blenders' tax credit (BTC). Industry trade groups have joined forces recently to concentrate lobbying efforts on congressional leaders for an extension to the BTC, which was retroactively established for 2017 but not 2018.

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24/12/03

Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit

New York, 3 December (Argus) — The US Department of Treasury said it still plans to issue guidance before president Joe Biden leaves office next year clarifying how refiners can qualify for a new tax credit for clean fuels. The agency "anticipates issuing guidance" around the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit before 20 January to "enable producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025", disputing a report today that the Biden administration planned on punting implementation to president-elect Donald Trump. The credit, set to kick off regardless on 1 January, will differ from some prior federal incentives by offering greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. Treasury did not commit to any definitive timeline for releasing guidance, and it did not immediately clarify how thorough any eventual rule would be. Companies in the biofuel supply chain say the current lack of clarity from Treasury — particularly on how it will calculate carbon intensities for various fuels and feedstocks — has slowed first quarter dealmaking. Government guidance could make or break the economics of certain plants, particularly for relatively higher-carbon fuels like soy biodiesel or jet fuel derived from corn ethanol. The US Department of Agriculture's timing for releasing a complementary rule to quantify the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices, envisioned as a way to reward refineries sourcing feedstocks from farms taking steps to reduce their emissions, is unclear. The agency said today that a "rulemaking process" in response to its request for information on climate-smart farm practices is "under consideration" but did not elaborate. Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack had insisted earlier this year that his department would release some package before the end of Biden's term. Some industry groups remain pessimistic that the Biden administration will answer all of the thorny questions still lingering around the 45Z credit, especially given signals earlier this year that other Inflation Reduction Act programs would take priority. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, says final regulations around 45Z "seem highly unlikely" before the end of Biden's term but that it hopes Treasury releases at least some "basic information" or safe harbor provisions. Delays getting credit guidance could prod Congress to extend expiring biofuel incentives for another year, including a $1/USG credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel. Some formerly skeptical lobbying groups have recently come on board in support of an extension, fearing that biofuel production could slump next year given the lack of 45Z guidance and uncertainty about how Trump will implement clean energy tax credits. But four lobbyists speaking on background told Argus today that the proposal still faces long odds. Congress has various other priorities for its relatively brief lame duck session, including government funding and disaster aid, that take precedence over biofuels. A staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee said last month that Republicans have been reluctant to negotiate tax policy in a divided Congress this year when they are planning a far-reaching tax package under unified Republican control next year. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Industry wary of Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

24/12/03

Industry wary of Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico

Washington, 3 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's plan to impose 25pc tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico could have a profound impact on the US oil and gas industry and the US' diplomatic efforts, energy industry representatives said at an industry conference on Tuesday. Cenovus Energy, the second-largest oil and gas producer in Canada, is paying close attention to Trump's rhetoric on trade, and trying to "educate" policymakers in the incoming Trump administration on how tariffs on Canada could impact North America's deeply integrated energy system, Cenovus director of US government affairs Steve Higley said at the North American Gas Forum in Washington, DC. The US in 2023 imported 3.9mn b/d of crude oil from Canada and 730,000 b/d from Mexico, accounting for 60pc and 11pc of US crude imports, respectively, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Refineries in the US Midwest's PADD 2 region also process about 2.5mn b/d of Canadian crude, Higley said. The US also exports a significant amount of natural gas to Mexico — 6.2 Bcf/d (176mn m³/d) in 2023, according to the EIA — which is another "reminder of how integrated the North American energy system is," said Dustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy at the influential trade group American Petroleum Institute (API). Retaliatory tariffs by Mexico, threatened by Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum last week in response to Trump's initial threat of tariffs, would likely impact that gas trade. Sheinbaum and Trump have since taken on a more conciliatory tone toward the subject after the two had what Trump called a "wonderful" conversation. API repeatedly called on Trump in his first administration to de-escalate his trade dispute with China, which it said threatened investment in US LNG. A section of API's website on trade titled "The Truth about Tariffs" reads: "Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that increase costs for consumers." Aside from the threat of tariffs causing "alarm" in Canada, it is not clear how US consumers would benefit from a tariff on all Canadian products, including oil and gas, said Robert Johnston, senior director of research at Columbia University's think tank Center on Global Energy Policy. On the diplomatic front, there is a "tension" between the incoming Trump administration's argument that US oil and gas production must be increased to support American allies, when it is also threatening tariffs to support American industry over that of its trade partners, Johnston said. The initiation of new trade disputes could also erode the US' ability to compete with China, said Jason Grumet, chief executive of trade group American Clean Power Association. "Are we trying to take China on alone, or are we trying to build a global economy of the democratic nations who have been our allies for 50 years?" Grumet asked. Whether the incoming Trump administration will actually go ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico is far from certain. From its rhetoric, the administration appears to care deeply about narrowing the US' trade deficit, leveraging its massive energy production on the global stage, and keeping energy prices low for US consumers, Meyer said. But "if that's the vision, what is the form that specific policies take?" he asked. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU finalisiert Zölle auf chinesische Biokraftstoffe

24/12/03

EU finalisiert Zölle auf chinesische Biokraftstoffe

Hamburg, 3 December (Argus) — Die europäische Kommission wird ab Februar 2025 Zölle auf importierte chinesische Biokraftstoffe erheben. Dies geschieht in Reaktion auf ungewöhnlich große und teilweise falsch deklarierte Biokraftstoff-Importmengen aus China seit dem Frühjahr 2023. Die Zölle werden am 14. Februar 2025 in Kraft treten und fallen je nach betroffenem chinesischem Unternehmen unterschiedlich hoch aus. Je nachdem, wie kooperativ sich das jeweilige Unternehmen gegenüber der Europäischen Kommission bei den Ermittlungen zu etwaigen Betrugsfällen mit fortschrittlichen Biokraftstoffen gezeigt hat, liegt der Zollsatz zwischen 11,1 % und 36,6 %. Dies geht aus einem Dokument der Generaldirektion für Handel der Kommission hervor, das Argus vorliegt. Die vorläufig erlassenen Zölle wurden ursprünglich in einer Spanne von 12,8 % bis 36,4% festgelegt. Endgültig eingeführte Zölle gelten für gewöhnlich für eine Zeitspanne von fünf Jahren, allerdings kann eine Revision bereits nach dem ersten Jahr angefragt werden. Die Kommission bestätigt in dem Dokument außerdem, dass Nachhaltiger Flugzeugkraftstoff (SAF) von den Antidumping-Zöllen ausgeschlossen ist, da der Kraftstoff weder mit Biodiesel oder HVO austauschbar sei, noch mit diesen konkurriere. Verschiedene europäische Unternehmen und Verbände, darunter der finnische Produzent Neste und das European Biofuels Board (EBB) hatten zuvor gewarnt, dass durch den Ausschluss von SAF von den Zöllen der Flugzeugkraftstoff von verpflichteten Unternehmen zur Erfüllung von Dekarbonisierungsmandaten im Straßenverkehr genutzt werden könnte. Durch sogenannte Opt-Ins können Unternehmen in manchen EU-Staaten, zum Beispiel in den Niederlanden, nicht straßengebundene Kraftstoffe wie SAF auf die Erfüllung ihrer Mandate im Straßensektor anrechnen lassen. Als HVO jedoch Anfang November im Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen (ARA) teurer gehandelt wurde als SAF, gab es keine Anzeichen, dass der Flugzeugkraftstoff tatsächlich verstärkt im Straßenkraftstoffmarkt Einzug hielt. Seit Anfang 2023 erreichten große Mengen von meist als fortschrittlich deklariertem Biokraftstoff aus China den europäischen Markt. Das daraus resultierende Überangebot setzte europäische Produzenten unter Druck und senkte in Deutschland die Kosten zur Erfüllung der Treibhausgasminderungsquote . Von Simone Burgin & Max Steinhau Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

КМГ планирует производить SAF в Казахстане

24/12/03

КМГ планирует производить SAF в Казахстане

Riga, 3 December (Argus) — Госнефтехолдинг Казмунайгаз (КМГ) рассматривает возможность производства экологически чистого авиационного топлива SAF в Казахстане. Казмунайгаз — Аэро, дочерняя компания КМГ, заключила рамочное соглашение с казахстанской BioOperations о совместной реализации проекта по SAF, сообщил холдинг в ноябре. SAF в Казахстане планируется производить по технологии ATJ (Alcohol-to-Jet), учитывая наличие биоэтанола, производимого BioOperations на заводе в Северо-Казахстанской области. BioOperations экспортирует биоэтанол в европейские страны, доставляя около 3,5 тыс. т/месяц продукта по железной дороге из Казахстана в латвийский порт Лиепая. Начало выпуска SAF в Казахстане прогнозируется примерно в 2027 — 2030 гг., после того как крупные НПЗ перейдут на производство авиатоплива Jet A-1. Ежегодный объем выпуска SAF, как ожидается, превысит 50 тыс. т/год. Использование SAF возможно только при смешивании с авиатопливом Jet A-1. На сегодня все три крупных НПЗ готовы к производству авиакеросина Jet A-1. Для перехода на использование этого вида авиатоплива необходимо провести подготовку по международным стандартам всей авиационной инфраструктуры, от НПЗ до крыла самолета, включая хранение, транспортировку и процесс заправки. КМГ может в течение месяца перейти на выпуск Jet A-1 с нынешних РТ и ТС-1, — сообщил отраслевой источник. Потенциальное сотрудничество в производстве SAF в Казахстане обсуждается между лицензиарами технологий, производителями SAF и его потребителями, частным бизнесом и госкомпаниями. Ранее КМГ заключил меморандумы о сотрудничестве с LanzaJet — разработчиком технологии получения SAF из этанола и французской Axens. ________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических материалов о рынках нефти и нефтепродуктов стран Каспийского региона и Центральной Азии — в еженедельном отчете Argus Рынок Каспия . Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

24/12/02

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

Mexico City, 2 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank (Banxico) maintained its base-case 2025 GDP growth estimate at 1.2pc, with a range of 0.4pc to 2pc, citing heightened global uncertainty fueled by geopolitical conflicts and potential shifts in international economic policies. Central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez last week addressed US president-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods, urging caution until the trade situation clarifies. Mexican president Claudia Shienbaum initially responded with a firm stance, saying Mexico could apply counter-tariffs. Later, Sheinbaum and Trump had a "friendly" phone call to discuss issues surrounding the proposed 25pc tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, Sheinbaum said. Banxico raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.8pc from 1.5pc in its previous quarterly report in August, driven by stronger-than-expected third-quarter performance. Still, Banxico noted that the additional growth is driven by increased spending on imported goods rather than domestic production, particularly in investment and private consumption. Inflation dynamics remain mixed. While headline inflation rose to an annualized 4.76pc in October, core inflation eased to 3.58pc, its lowest level since mid-2020. Rodriguez emphasized progress on inflation despite external uncertainties, signaling room for further monetary easing. Banxico cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.25pc on 14 November and is widely expected to lower it again to 10pc at its 19 December meeting. Projections from Mexican finance executives institution (IMEF) suggest the rate could drop to 8.25pc by the end of 2025. Banxico also revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.7pc from 4.4pc in the August report but expects inflation to return to its 2–4pc target range by early 2025, with a 3pc rate projected by the fourth quarter. Other adjustments include a downgraded forecast for formal job creation in 2024 and 2025, with the range estimate for full-year job creation in 2024 dropping to 250,000–350,000 from 410,000-550,000 in August. The 2025 estimate came down to 340,000–540,000 from 430,000–630,000.The 2025 trade deficit outlook was also tightened to $14.9bn–$22.1bn, compared to a previous range of $13.7bn–$23.7bn. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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