Global seaborne iron ore supplies are forecast to rise by 2.4pc in 2019 compared with a fall of 0.2pc this year, pressuring iron ore prices next year, said an analyst report by US bank Morgan Stanley.
Seaborne supplies are expected to be at 1.52bn t in 2019, higher by around 37mn t from estimated supplies of 1.48bn t in 2018.
The restart of mining company Anglo American's 26mn t/yr Minas Rio mine in Brazil, after being shut for repairs since March this year, will add a big portion of incremental supplies in 2019. Vale's continued ramp-up of its 90mn t/yr S11D mine in Brazil will add to supplies, while Australia's top three exporters may lift supplies by 13mn t with 9mn t coming from BHP.
Morgan Stanley forecasts China's iron ore imports in 2019 to fall by 1pc from a year earlier, tracking a 2.6pc fall in crude steel output. But this will offset by a lower average scrap charge in basic oxygen furnaces next year, averaging around 17pc.
