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Parallel government emerging in Venezuela: Update

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 19/01/11

Adds bondholders' statement.

A parallel opposition government is emerging in the wake of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro´s disputed re-inauguration yesterday in Caracas.

Juan Guaidó, who was elected president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly on 5 January, declared at a public rally today that he is assuming the executive powers of the presidency based on three articles of Venezuela´s 1999 constitution.

Today´s development compounds pressure on western oil companies that have oil and gas assets and operations in Venezuela. The Opec country´s oil production has plummeted over the past year, but the state-owned industry is seen as a central component of a future reconstruction campaign.

Venezuela's many jilted creditors are hoping that a transitional government will implement a comprehensive debt restructuring. In a statement issued today, New York-based bonderholders´committee said it considers the assembly to be "the only legitimately elected body in Venezuela and wishes to underscore its position that, consistent with OFAC sanctions, it will not negotiate with the current regime," adding that it plans to keep channels of communication open with "all non-sanctioned stakeholders" in anticipation of a restructuring and economic reform program "under a domestically and internationally legitimate government."

Maduro´s re-inauguration to a second six-year term was condemned as illegitimate by over 50 countries including the US, Canada, EU, the Lima Group and the Organization of American States (OAS). The ceremony officiated by the government-controlled Supreme Court, rather than the National Assembly as instructed by the constitution, triggered more targeted international sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, on top of US financial sanctions imposed in August 2017.

"I invoke Articles 233, 333 and 350 of the constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to call immediate free elections, and for the unity of the people, armed forces and international community to end the usurpation" of Maduro, Guaidó declared at the rally of hundreds of Venezuelans held outside the UN office in Caracas today.

Article 233 says the head of the assembly will assume the presidency until new elections are held whenever the sitting president is incapacitated, abandons the presidency or the popular will revokes his mandate.

The assembly already has declared Maduro's second government to be illegitimate, but likely will issue more resolutions to that effect before a scheduled 23 January march aimed at forcing Maduro out of office. The evocative date recalls the 1958 ouster of Venezuela´s former dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez.

Article 333 says the constitution is valid and prevails even when it is ignored or revoked unconstitutionally.

A legislative aide to Guaidó said his declared assumption of executive powers is intended to block any attempt by the government-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) and Supreme Court to replace the 1999 constitution with a new charter and dissolve the assembly before its constitutional term ends in 2021.

Article 350 says the people of Venezuela will disavow and reject any government contrary to Venezuela's democratic values and principles.

The opposition is hoping the march will compel Maduro to peacefully resign and transfer power to the assembly until new elections are held in a 30-day period.

Guaidó emerged from relative obscurity in recent weeks, the latest in a long line of opposition figures, many of whom are behind bars or in exile. Guaidó is younger and is seen as less encumbered politically than his predecessors.

The military´s stance will be critical to determining the fate of this latest effort to dislodge Maduro. Guaidó called on the armed forces to support the people's march and urged Venezuelans to take the streets to reclaim their democracy.

Venezuela´s top military brass holds senior positions in the Maduro government and has been loyal to him since he came to power in 2013, following the death of former president Hugo Chavez. But rank and file troops suffer the same deprivations of food, medicine and basic services as ordinary Venezuelans do.

Guaidó's announcement could spark another violent government crackdown on the long-divided opposition.

There was no immediate response from the presidential palace to Guaidó's announcement.

Constituent assembly president Diosdado Cabello, part of Maduro´s inner circle, has threatened physical harm against Maduro's opponents, warning last week that anyone who tries to force Maduro from power will be treated as "an enemy invader and traitor."

A senior member of the Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) party tells Argus that Guaidó is aware of the "life-threatening" risks of his initiative, but said it was his "only option".

"Keeping silent and not invoking the constitution's authority to strip Maduro of his executive powers would have been a surrender to the dictatorial status quo and would have buried any chance of restoring democracy for years to come."


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25/05/09

White House ends use of carbon cost

White House ends use of carbon cost

Washington, 9 May (Argus) — The US is ending its use of a metric for estimating the economic damages from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the latest reversal of climate change policies supported by President Donald Trump's predecessors. The White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) this week directed federal agencies to stop using the social cost of carbon as part of any regulatory or decision-making practices, except in cases where it is required by law, citing the need "remove any barriers put in place by previous administrations" that restrict the ability of the US to get the most benefit "from our abundant natural resources". "Under this guidance, the circumstances where agencies will need to engage in monetized greenhouse gas emission analysis will be few to none," OMB said in a 5 May memo to federal agencies. In cases where such an analysis is required by law, agencies should limit their work "to the minimum consideration required" and address only the domestic effects, unless required by law. OMB said these steps are needed to ensure sound regulatory decisions and avoid misleading the public because the uncertainties of such analyses "are too great". The budget office issued the guidance in response to an executive order Trump issued on his first day in office, which also disbanded an interagency working group on the social cost of carbon and called for faster permitting for domestic oil and gas production and the termination of various orders issued by former president Joe Biden related to combating climate change. The metric, first established by the administration of former US president Barack Obama, has been subject to a tug of war between Democrats and Republicans. Trump, in his first term, slashed the value of the social cost of carbon, a move Biden later reversed . Biden then directed agencies to fold the metric into their procurement processes and environmental reviews. The US began relying on the cost estimate in 2010, offering a way to estimate the full costs and benefits of climate-related regulations. The Biden administration estimated the global cost of emitting CO2 at $120-$340/metric tonne and included it in rules related to cars, trucks, residential appliances, ozone standards, methane emission rules, refineries and federal oil and gas leases. By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April


25/05/09
25/05/09

Brazil's inflation accelerates to 5.53pc in April

Sao Paulo, 9 May (Argus) — Brazil's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.53pc in April, accelerating for a third month despite six central bank rate hikes since September aimed at cooling the economy. The country's annualized inflation accelerated from 5.48pc in March and 5.06pc in February, according to government statistics agency IBGE. Food and beverages rose by an annual 7.81pc, up from 7.68pc in March. Ground coffee increased at an annual 80.2pc, accelerating from 77.78pc in the month prior. Still, soybean oil prices decelerated to 22.83pc in April from 24.36pc in March. Domestic power consumption costs rose to 0.71pc from 0.33pc a month earlier. Transportation costs decelerated to 5.49pc from 6.05pc in March. Gasoline prices slowed to a 8.86pc gain from 10.89pc a month earlier. The increase in ethanol and diesel prices decelerated as well to 13.9pc and 6.42pc in April from 20.08pc and 8.13pc in March, respectively. The hike in compressed natural gas prices (CNG) fell to 3.5pc from 3.92pc a month prior. Inflation posted the seventh consecutive monthly increase above the central bank's goal of 3pc, with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank increased its target interest rate for the sixth time in a row to 14.75pc on 7 May. The bank has been trying to counter soaring inflation as it has recently changed the way it tracks its goal. Monthly cooldown But Brazil's monthly inflation decelerated to 0.43pc in April from a 0.56pc gain in March. Food and beverages decelerated on a monthly basis to 0.82pc in April from a 1.17pc increase a month earlier, according to IBGE. Housing costs also decelerated to 0.24pc from 0.14pc in March. Transportation costs contracted by 0.38pc and posted the largest monthly contraction in April. Diesel prices posted the largest contraction at 1.27pc in April. Petrobras made three diesel price readjustments in April-May. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia threatens to stop oil imports from Singapore


25/05/09
25/05/09

Indonesia threatens to stop oil imports from Singapore

Singapore, 9 May (Argus) — Indonesian market participants have reacted with caution to a call by the country's energy minister to stop all oil imports from Singapore. Energy and mineral resources minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on 8 May that Indonesia should stop purchases from Singapore and instead buy directly from oil producers in the Middle East, according to media reports that were confirmed by several Indonesian market participants. Discussions are taking place but there is so far no official statement from the ministry nor any direction from managers in the oil industry, one market participant said. "None of us are taking it seriously" and it is still "business as usual", the official said. The regional trading hub of Singapore is a major supplier of oil products to Indonesia, and any end to shipments from the country would upend trade flows. Singapore is the biggest gasoline supplier to Indonesia, accounting for more than 60pc of total shipments, according to customs data. Singapore exported 236,000 b/d of gasoline to Indonesia in 2024, with Malaysia a distant second at 79,500 b/d. Singapore is also one of Indonesia's top gasoil and jet fuel suppliers, shipping over 54,000 b/d of gasoil and 8,300 b/d of jet fuel to the country in January-April this year, according to data from government agency Enterprise Singapore. The government has already begun to build docks that can accommodate larger, long-haul vessels, Bahlil said, according to state-owned media. Any move by Indonesian importers to switch purchases to the Mideast Gulf would increase the replacement cost of supply because of higher freight rates, said market participants. Indonesian buyers are currently negotiating term contracts on a fob Singapore basis, so a sudden cut in supplies would not be feasible. The term contract is due for renewal soon, traders said. State-owned oil firm Pertamina, the dominant products importer, is expected to begin term negotiations for its second-half 2025 requirements in May-June. A decision by Indonesia to end imports from Singapore would cut regional gasoline demand but could be bullish for the market overall, given the extra logistics required to blend elsewhere and ship into southeast Asia. The Mideast Gulf currently supplies mainly Pakistan and Africa, with just 15pc of gasoline exports from the region heading towards Indonesia and Singapore in 2024, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler. Indonesia's energy ministry (ESDM) did not immediately reply to a request for confirmation of Bahlil's comments. They came a day after the country's president Prabowo Subianto called for Indonesia to become self-sufficient in oil in the next five years. Indonesia has also proposed raising energy imports from the US as part of talks to reduce import tariffs threatened by president Donald Trump. Indonesia is considering boosting imports of crude, LPG, LNG and refined fuels in order to rebalance its trade surplus and ease bilateral tensions, government officials have said. By Aldric Chew and Lu Yawen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australian firms flag coal phase-out timeline concerns


25/05/09
25/05/09

Australian firms flag coal phase-out timeline concerns

Sydney, 9 May (Argus) — Energy utilities raised concerns that Australia's coal-fired power generation phase-out might be running on an unrealistic timeline, according to submissions to the National Electricity Market (NEM) review consultation process. Utilities AGL Energy, Alinta Energy, Delta Energy, Energy Australia, Origin Energy and Stanwell — which operate 10 of the 20 coal-fired power plants in Australia (see table) — submitted separate recommendations to the consultation launched late last year looking at wholesale market settings. This came after the conclusion of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) tenders in 2027, and as Australia transitions to more renewables from its aging coal-fired plants. The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) forecast the country will exit all coal-fired generation by 2038 in its Integrated System Plan (ISP) published in 2024. But Delta Energy predicts that this timeline will not be met, and views ISP's priority as emissions reduction targets rather than a realistic timeline. Insufficient capacity to replace the coal plants was a common issue flagged by these companies, with AGL saying this is partly because of uncertainty in the market leading to less investments. The utility plans to close all its coal plants by the end of June 2035. AGL was Australia's largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in the 2024 financial year, according to the Clean Energy Regulator (CER), followed by Stanwell, Energy Australia and Origin Energy. The transition could be supported using flexible dispatchable resources, according to Origin Energy. The coal phase-out means more variable renewable energy (VRE) is required, but VRE output will not necessarily match demand. "The NEM review must also consider the actions to facilitate the planned retirement of coal-fired power stations from the energy system, which will still be occurring in the NEM beyond the CIS," Stanwell warned. "The urgency of developing solutions cannot be overstated, as any indecision now would result in increased government intervention later, and a disorderly and costly NEM beyond the CIS." Gas-fired generation A few firms view gas-powered generation as critical in the transition away from thermal coal and in maintaining system reliability. It will provide back-up in times of renewable droughts, said Stanwell and AGL, and should be noted in discussions of the forward strategy. But Alinta Energy is cautious of the costs of gas-fired power plants, believing them to be the least costly for customers but not economically viable because of their exposure to global gas market prices. Alinta's suggestion is to reduce the market's dependence on high-cost facilities including gas-fired facilities. Mixed views on capacity market Some companies mentioned a capacity mechanism as a solution. Coal-fired facilities should be allowed to continue until they can be replaced, said Alinta Energy, and gas power plants are necessary. Energy Australia and Delta are calling for the NEM to stay technologically neutral in this process, keeping thermal coal exits in mind. A capacity market needs to be sustainable without government subsidies, Alinta Energy said, and exit strategies for government intervention should be clear from the beginning. But capacity markets can lead to higher costs for customers, according to AGL, because of potential over-procured capacity. "If a capacity mechanism was implemented, it would be important to consider the impact of any capacity incentive on the operation of the NEM and the appropriate level of the market price settings — a balance that may be difficult to strike," AGL noted. The expert independent panel leading the review will continue carrying out consultation, and is expected to make final recommendations to energy and climate ministers in late 2025. By Susannah Cornford Australia coal fired power plant closures in NEM Plant Capacity (MW) Owner Closure date State Emissions CER 2023/24 year Scope 1 & 2 of CO2e Eraring 2,880.0 Origin 2025 NSW 13,550,220.0 Yallourn 1,480.0 Energy australia 2029 Vic 10,502,080.0 Callide B 700.0 CS Energy 2029 Qld 4,028,161.0 Total by 2030 5,060.0 28,080,461.0 Coal plant closures in NEM after 2030 Bayswater 2,640.0 AGL 2030-33 NSW 13,712,719.0 Vales Point 1,320.0 Delta 2033 NSW 7,111,963.0 Stanwell 1,460.0 stanwell 2035 Qld 6,982,204.0 Tarong 1,843.0 Stanwell 2035 Qld 10,936,021.0 Kogan 740.0 CS Energy 2035 Qld 4,522,472.0 Callide C 825.0 CS Energy 2035 Qld 688,038.0 Loy Yang A 2,210.0 AGL 2035 Vic 18,723,707.0 Sub-total 11,038.0 62,677,124.0 Total by 2030 16,098.0 90,757,585.0 CER Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Permian output could plateau sooner: Occidental CEO


25/05/08
25/05/08

Permian output could plateau sooner: Occidental CEO

New York, 8 May (Argus) — Oil production from the Permian basin could plateau sooner than expected if operators keep talking about reducing activity levels in the wake of lower oil prices, warned the chief executive of Occidental Petroleum. Vicki Hollub said she previously expected to see Permian output growing through 2027, with overall US production growth peaking by the end of the decade. "It's looking like with the current headwinds, or at least volatility and uncertainty around pricing and the economy, and recessions and all of that, it's looking like that peak could come sooner," Hollub told analysts today after posting first quarter results. "So I'm thinking right now the Permian, if it grows at all through the rest of the year, it's going to be very little." Occidental is reducing the midpoint of its annual capital spending guidance for 2025 by $200mn on the back of further efficiency gains. The US independent also plans to trim domestic operating costs by $150mn. "We continue to rapidly advance towards our debt reduction goals, and we believe our deep, diverse portfolio of high-quality assets positions us for success in any market environment," Hollub said. Occidental closed asset sales of $1.3bn in the first quarter and has repaid $2.3bn in debt so far in 2025. Occidental produced 1.4mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the first quarter compared with nearly 1.2mn boe/d in the same period of last year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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