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US shifts targets in Venezuela policy

  • : Crude oil
  • 19/04/12

The US administration, frustrated that it has not been able to force Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro from power, is trying a new tack by targeting an old foe: Cuba.

The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) today imposed sanctions on four companies that own tankers transporting crude and oil products from Venezuela to Cuba. That follows the Treasury's move a week ago to designate two non-US shipping firms involved in shuttling oil between Venezuela and Cuba as the administration works to isolate Venezuela from a key ally.

Those designations may have small impact on Venezuela and oil markets in general. But Washington is hoping that undermining Cuba will have the indirect effect of ending its support for Caracas, which the US says has been crucial in Maduro's ability to survive despite US sanctions.

Today's sanctions "seek to hinder the regime's further theft and the predatory influence of Cuba, which takes Venezuela's oil and pays the regime with security and intelligence forces to keep Nicolas Maduro in power," secretary of state Mike Pompeo said.

"I do not really think Maduro is giving orders. I think he is taking orders from Havana," White House national security adviser John Bolton said in a radio interview yesterday.

To underscore the point, Bolton says he plans to attend the Bay of Pigs Veterans Association convention in Miami next week to deliver remarks on the administration's steps "to confront security threats related to Cuba and Venezuela." The convention marks the 58th anniversary of the failed CIA-backed invasion of Cuba by paramilitary forces opposed to Fidel Castro's government.

President Donald Trump's administration similarly has hinted at a possible military intervention in Venezuela, but that has turned out to be a bluff so far. The promise of humanitarian aid, threats of new sanctions and tweets from Bolton have not swayed senior Venezuelan military commanders to switch their allegiance to National Assembly speaker Juan Guaidó, whom Washington recognizes as Venezuela's interim leader.

Senator Rick Scott (R-Florida) yesterday called for the administration to deploy military force to deliver the more than 500 tons of food and medicine into Venezuela from staging points in Colombia, Brazil and Curacao.

But the State Department countered that "our economic and diplomatic pressure is something we are going to continue to pursue."

Raul Castro, the octogenarian head of Cuba's Communist Party, warned in a speech to the Cuban national assembly on 10 April that economic conditions, including fuel shortages, could worsen in response to tougher US sanctions.

Washington is also stepping up its diplomatic efforts to persuade more countries to recognize Guaidó as Venezuela's interim leader — 54 already do. The Organization of American States this week granted that recognition, expelling Maduro's representative to the organization and accepting credentials from Guaido's designated envoy.

Vice president Mike Pence traveled to New York on 10 April to make the case that the UN should do the same. "This body should revoke the credentials of Venezuela's representative to the UN, recognize interim president Juan Guaidó, and seat the representative of the free Venezuelan government in this body without delay," Pence told the UN Security Council.

The prospect is unlikely, as Russia and China will veto the move at the UN Security Council and 139 out of 193 UN members continue to recognize the Maduro government.

The US efforts to achieve a similar recognition for Guaidó's government in the IMF and World have been similarly unsuccessful even though both organizations say that they have done the preparatory work for a massive recovery program for Venezuela should a new government in Caracas request such assistance.

The question of which government represents Caracas is showing up in US courts, where multiple companies are staking out claims for PdV-owned US refiner Citgo to satisfy their unpaid debts.

"As the Assads and Castros of the world will attest, our nation's record of pressuring dictators into retirement through economic pressure is not one of unalloyed success," one of those claimants, Crystallex, wrote in a recent filing before the 3rd US Circuit of Court of Appeals.


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25/04/17

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

Washington, 17 April (Argus) — Economic growth projections set for release next week will include "notable markdowns" caused by higher US tariffs that have been disrupting trade and stressing financial markets, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said today. The IMF earlier this month warned that the tariffs that President Donald Trump was placing on trading partners could pose a "significant risk" to the global economy. Those higher trade barriers are on track to reduce growth, raise prices for consumers and create incremental costs related to uncertainty, the IMF plans to say in its World Economic Outlook on 22 April. "Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession," Georgieva said Thursday in a speech previewing the outlook. "We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries." Trump has already placed an across-the-board 10pc tariff on most trading partners, with higher tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico, a 145pc tariff on China, and an exception for most energy imports. Those tariffs — combined with Trump's on-again, off-again threats to impose far higher tariffs — have been fueling uncertainty for businesses and trading partners. The recent tariff "increases, pauses, escalations and exemption" will likely have significant consequences for the global economy, Georgieva said, resulting in a postponement of investment decisions, ships at sea not knowing where to sail, precautionary savings and more volatile financial markets. Higher tariffs will cause an upfront hit to economic growth, she said, and could cause a shift in trade under which some sectors could be "flooded by cheap imports" while other sectors face shortages. The IMF has yet to release its latest growth projections. But in January, IMF expected global growth would hold steady at 3.3pc this year with lower inflation. The IMF at the time had forecast the US economy would grow by 2.7pc, with 1pc growth in Europe and 4.5pc growth in China. The upcoming markdown in growth projections from the IMF aligns with analyses from many banks and economists. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on 16 April said the recent increase in tariffs were likely to contribute to "higher inflation and slower growth". Those comments appear to have infuriated Trump, who has wanted Powell to cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating growth in the US. "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough!" Trump wrote today on social media. Powell's term as chair does not end until May 2026. Under a longstanding US Supreme Court case called Humphrey's Executor , Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally fire commissioners at independent agencies such as the Federal Reserve. Trump has already done so at other agencies such as the US Federal Trade Commission, creating a potential avenue to overturn the decision. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent


25/04/17
25/04/17

BP defends pivot in face of investor discontent

London, 17 April (Argus) — BP's chairman Helge Lund took the brunt of a mini-revolt against the strategy pivot that the company announced in late February , as he saw support for his re-election slide at the firm's annual general meeting (AGM) in London today. Lund — who already plans to step down from his role as BP's chair — saw the proportion of votes cast in favour of his re-election drop to 75.7pc, well down on the 95.89pc support he secured at last year's AGM. Prior to this year's meeting, climate activist shareholder group Follow This had said that a vote against Lund was still required to signal concern about BP's governance in the absence of a "say-on-climate" vote following the company's recent strategy revamp which included dropping a 2030 limit on its oil and gas production and investing less on low-carbon assets. Institutional investor Legal and General said last week that it would be voting against the re-election of Lund and that it is "deeply concerned" about the company's strategy change. Commenting on today's vote, Follow This said BP's shareholders had "delivered an unprecedented high level of dissent" that signals deep investor concern about climate and governance. The vote "sends a clear signal" that Lund's successor "needs to be climate and transition competent" and show "resistance to short-term activists", the group added. US activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which has a track record of forcing change at resources companies, has reportedly built a stake of around 5pc in BP . Lund told shareholders at the meeting that BP had carried out "extensive engagement" concerning its strategy change, including sounding out 75pc of its institutional shareholder base, and that a majority did not want a "say-on-climate" vote. He also insisted that the recent strategy shift had been very carefully considered by BP's board and leadership team. These considerations involved a review of a broad range of scenarios including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's and BP's own ambition to be a net-zero company by 2050. Earlier in the meeting, BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss conceded that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced", noting that despite many areas of strength within BP it went "too far too fast" so that "a fundamental reset was needed". Asked by an investor about how BP plans to mitigate the effects of the tariffs on imports to the US imposed by President Donald Trump this month , Auchincloss said the company was "tracking the situation carefully". The steel and aluminium tariffs that have been introduced by Washington should not affect BP's onshore business in the US but there are some impacts on the speciality steels the firm brings into the US for its offshore facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico, he said. Auchincloss received 97.3pc of shareholder votes in favour of his re-election, while finance chief Kate Thomson received 98.7pc support for her re-election. All other directors, apart from Lund, received votes greater than 92.9pc in favour of their re-election. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts


25/04/17
25/04/17

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

Mexico City, 17 April (Argus) — The Mexican finance executive association (IMEF) lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for a second consecutive month in its April survey, citing a rising risk of recession on US-Mexico trade tensions. In its April survey, growth expectations for 2025 fell to 0.2pc, down from 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. Nine of the 43 respondents projected negative growth — up from four in March, citing rising exposure to US tariffs that now affect "roughly half" of Mexico's exports. The group warned that the risk of recession will continue to rise until tariff negotiations are resolved, with the possibility of a US recession compounding the problem. As such, IMEF expects a contraction in the first quarter with high odds of continued negative growth in the second quarter — meeting one common definition of recession as two straight quarters of contraction. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Mexico's statistics agency Inegi will release its first estimate for first quarter GDP growth on April 30. "A recession is now very likely," said IMEF's director of economic studies Victor Herrera. "Some sectors, like construction, are already struggling — and it's just a matter of time before it spreads." The severity of the downturn will depend on how quickly trade tensions ease and whether the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement is successfully revised, Herrera added. But the outlook remains uncertain, with mixed signals this week — including a possible pause on auto tariffs and fresh warnings of new tariffs on key food exports like tomatoes. IMEF also trimmed its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.5pc from 1.6pc, citing persistent tariff uncertainty. Its 2025 formal job creation estimate dropped to 220,000 from 280,000 in March. The group slightly lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.8pc from 3.9pc, noting current consumer price index should allow the central bank to continue the current rate cut cycle to lower its target interest rate to 8pc by year-end from 9pc. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.90/$1, slightly stronger than the Ps21/$1 forecast in March. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid


25/04/17
25/04/17

India's ONGC wins 15 blocks in upstream oil, gas bid

Mumbai, 17 April (Argus) — Indian state-controlled upstream firm ONGC has won 15 of the 28 blocks offered for bidding in the ninth round under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's (HELP's) Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP). Three of these were with ONGC's joint venture with state-run Oil India, while another was in a consortium with BP and private-sector refiner Reliance Industries (RIL). This is the first time BP, RIL and ONGC have partnered and won a shallow-water block in the Saurashtra basin. ONGC has a 40pc stake in the consortium, with RIL and BP having 30pc each, a trading source said. RIL-BP had jointly won an ultra-deepwater block in the Krishna Godavari basin in the eighth round. Private-sector Vedanta, which had bid for all 28 oil and gas blocks, won seven blocks. Oil India won six blocks on its own and three in collaboration with ONGC. Private-sector firm Sun Petrochemicals, which had bid for seven blocks in this ninth round, did not secure any blocks. Interest from the private sector was relatively higher in this bidding round, but it remains mostly dominated by state-controlled firms. Foreign participation in the Indian exploration sector remains low. The ninth round saw 28 blocks auctioned(https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2524414) across an area of 136,596.45 km². India has awarded 144 exploration and production blocks comprising a total area of 242,055 km² in eight previous rounds. India in March passed the Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill 2024 , which aims to simplify regulations, attract investment, and enhance exploration and production capabilities. It also allows granting oil leases on stable terms, along with sharing of production facilities and infrastructure. It also scrapped the windfall tax on domestic crude oil production in December 2024. The ministry said it is working on new frameworks to address challenges related to the upstream sector. India imports around 89pc of its crude requirements, despite efforts to reduce its dependency on imports. Crude imports in January-February rose by over 1pc on the year to 5.01mn b/d, oil ministry data show. During the same period, its total crude production fell by over 1pc from a year earlier to 539,000 b/d. By Roshni Devi India OALP blocks ninth bidding round Basin Type Block Area (km²) Awardee Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/1 9,514.63 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/2 9,844.72 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2022/3 7,795.45 ONGC Cauvery Basin Ultra-deepwater CY-UDWHP-2023/1 5,330.49 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/1 5,585.61 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2022/2 5,453.96 ONGC - BPXA – RIL Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/1 2,939.56 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Shallow water GS-OSHP-2023/1 ,5408.79 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/1 7,699.00 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Ultra-deepwater GS-UDWHP-2023/2 8,446.28 ONGC Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/2 2,977.28 Vedanta Saurashtra Basin Onland GS-ONHP-2023/3 2,793.08 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2022/2 7,13.92 ONGC- OIL Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/1 1,873.66 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/1 446 OIL Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/2 636 Vedanta Cambay Basin Onland CB-ONHP-2023/3 416 ONGC Cambay Basin Shallow water CB-OSHP-2023/2 477 Vedanta Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/1 9,466.85 ONGC - OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/2 9,425.84 OIL Mahanadi Basin Ultra-deepwater MN-UDWHP-2023/3 9,831.48 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/1 9,495.16 OIL Krishna-Godavari Basin Ultra-deepwater KG-UDWHP-2023/2 9,223.22 OIL Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/1 2,935.19 ONGC Mumbai Offshore Shallow water MB-OSHP-2023/2 1,749.74 Vedanta Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/2 784 ONGC - OIL Assam Shelf Basin Onland AS-ONHP-2022/3 2,168.09 OIL Kutch Basin Shallow water GK-OSHP_x0002_2023/1 3,164.61 ONGC Source: Oil ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran says uranium enrichment 'not up for negotiation'


25/04/16
25/04/16

Iran says uranium enrichment 'not up for negotiation'

Dubai, 16 April (Argus) — Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said uranium enrichment is non-negotiable after US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff suggested any new nuclear deal would require a halt. "We are open to acknowledging and answering concerns [about our nuclear programme] in order to help build trust," Araqchi told reporters in Tehran. "But the core issue of Iran enriching uranium is not up for negotiation." Araqchi was responding to questions about a social media post made by Witkoff on 15 April in which he suggested that any new nuclear deal would require Iran to "stop and eliminate" its enrichment of uranium. In a television interview the day before, Witkoff indicated that Washington just wanted Iran to abide by the 3.67pc enrichment threshold that was agreed in the previous nuclear deal that US president Donald Trump pulled out of in 2018. Witkoff's apparent shift in stance was echoed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on 15 April, who said: "The president does not want to see Iran have a nuclear programme. He does not want Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon." Araqchi, who is leading the Iranian delegation in the talks, said such "contradictory" comments by US officials are "not helpful". Aracqhi and Witkoff are due to meet on 19 April for a second round of talks, which were initially scheduled to be held in Oman but and now due to take place in Rome, according to Iran's state broadcaster IRIB. Both Tehran and Washington described the first round of talks in Oman on 12 April as "positive and constructive." By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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