Ukraine grain outlook bolstered by trade disputes

: Biofuels, Fertilizers
19/04/15

The outcome of trade disputes between China and the US and Canada will be a key determinant of Ukrainian export flows in the coming months and years, delegates heard at the Black Sea Grain conference in Kiev.

Negotiations between US and Chinese trade officials could draw to a close at the end of this month. Whatever the outcome, the end of the process is likely to dictate the direction of global grain prices and redirect international grain trade flows.

If a trade deal is reached China will import up to 4.3mn t/yr of corn from the US, Chinese trading firm Donlink Grain and Oil's director Renault Quach told the conference. If no deal is struck, the offtake will be well below that, and this could open opportunities for Ukraine to further increase its market share in China. Ukraine has been the largest single corn supplier to China since 2015, and does have theoretical capacity to export more — its overall exports were around 4.5mn t below production in 2018-19, according to the USDA.

Trade tensions could affect the fundamentals for barley also. China could import feed barley, which it uses interchangeably with sorghum, from Ukraine should no agreement with the US be reached. China also has stable demand for malting barley, for which it depends on imports from Australia and Canada. But Beijing has a trade dispute over Canadian canola exports, and is carrying out an anti-dumping investigation into Australian malting barley. Quach sees an opening for Ukraine here as well.

"There is a big opportunity for Ukraine to export [malting barley] to China", he said. However, Ukrainian feed grains are likely to lose Chinese market share if a deal is reached before mid-2019.

Ukraine's rapeseed growers could find a new opening from the trade conflict between Canada and China, according to UkrAgroConsult's oilseed expert Julia Garkavenko. Although Ukraine does not have a permit to import rapeseed into China, this could change.

"Ukraine's representatives have already left for China to solve this issue", Garkavenko told Argus. Until such time as a permit is granted, Ukraine sends rapeseed oil (RSO) to China.

"Ukraine could be an attractive alternative" for China, Garkavenko told the conference, adding that RSO exports to China have already picked up pace in the past year.

The prospect of a trade deal between China and the US is already buoying global grains markets, US agricultural advisory AgResource's president Dan Basse said in Kiev. With world stocks at long-term highs, grain prices should really be lower than they are, Basse said. He sees the chances of a trade deal as fairly high. Quach agreed, telling Argus: "I believe there will be a deal".

Quach said while the importance of US feed grain for China has been in steady decline, "There is no other market in the world to replace [Chinese] import volumes of soybean and sorghum" and therefore China is in a strong negotiating position. However, while China's grain sector could adjust to a no-deal scenario, trade disputes particularly threaten the country's manufacturing sectors, said Quach. Therefore "from an economic point of view, our country does need agreement with the US", he said.

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25/04/02

Brazil SAF industry set to take off in 2027

Sao Paulo, 2 April (Argus) — Brazil's aviation industry is keeping an eye on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) regulations as the domestic market awaits the kickoff of local production to comply with the planned blend mandate and with potential for exports. The fuels of the future law envisages raising biofuel mix standards to lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in domestic flights over a 10-year period starting in 2027, as Brazil has committed to applying a 10pc SAF mandate by 2037. The country's efforts to implement a SAF mandate runs in tandem with the guidelines from UN's International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) program, which oversees GHG reduction in international flights. The program set up two phases until reduction targets are fully implemented, so airlines and producers adapt to changes efficiently. Airlines can voluntarily adhere between 2024-2026, followed by global compulsory targets from 2027-2035, prompting SAF usage or carbon credits compensation. The mandatory phase embraces all international flights, including those from and to non-voluntary countries, except for so-called underdeveloped countries and those with a low share of global air traffic flows. Brazil's SAF is a newborn industry that holds potential for feedstock supply , mostly for its traditional production pathways using soybean oil, corn and sugarcane ethanol, as well as widespread agricultural lands engaged in biomass production without practicing land-use change. Its variability also allows new projects to reuse degraded lands and existing agricultural assets to comply with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) sustainability criteria related to land-use and soil health enhancement. SAF input in Brazil faces economic hurdles as high market volatility weighs on long-term investments, says A&M Infra's management consultant Filipe Bonaldo. But he also says that the political agenda will not hinder the energy transition as has happened in the US under President Donald Trump, since Brazil's economy is heavily based on agriculture its regulatory processes spur optimism. As an agricultural powerhouse, Brazil offers low-cost production and multiple sources to provide demand, both internally and offshore. Brazil is the third largest global exporter in agriculture and livestock markets, leading soy, orange juice and beef markets globally, according to agriculture and livestock confederation CAN. Debut in Rio Brazilian fuel distributor Vibra is the first to offer SAF in Brazil, before the blend mandate comes into effect. The company imported 550,000l (16,000bl) of SAF produced with used-cooking oil (UCO) from the port of Antwerp, in the Netherlands, in January. The biofuel is available for customers at Vibra's facility at the Rio de Janeiro international airport after a 10-month logistics plan was concluded. International Sustainability & Carbon Certification (ISCC) has secured all processes of the plan, from the supply chain of the product to distribution. Vibra operates in more than 90 airports in Brazil and accounts for 60pc of national aviation market share through its sector subsidiary BR Aviation, said executive vice-president of operations Marcelo Bragança. Why it took so long? The sector has long had doubts over the technical feasibility of admitting the use of biofuels in aviation , especially from a security point of view, said Anac's head of the environment and energy transition Marcela Anselmi. The agency, along with oil and biofuels regulator ANP, follow international regulations for SAF as it requires a physical and chemical resemblance to current fossil aviation fuels to ensure flight operations security. It is still not possible to use 100pc of SAF in aircraft motors, said Anselmi. There is a 50pc mix limit that inhibits worldwide adherence as there are technical restrictions yet to overcome. Recent engagement in the energy transition agenda is promoting biomass supply for aviation, as well as road and marine modalities, requiring new production pathways. For example, ATJ uses ethanol to convert it into SAF, which can be expensive to install and implies high capital expenditure. In a global context, Brazil stands in the vanguard of the SAF agenda as Europe and the US have only deployed legislation related to output and consumption over the past two years, Anselmi pointed out. Meanwhile, South America's planned SAF production capacity may reach 1.1mn l/yr in 2030, according to EPE. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sulacid demand from Indonesian buyer muted: Correction

25/04/02

Sulacid demand from Indonesian buyer muted: Correction

Corrects volume in paragraph 5 to 106,000t from 160,000t London, 2 April (Argus) — Sulphuric acid demand from Indonesian battery metals producer PT QMB New Energy Materials (QMB) slowed in March and into April, with the firm carrying out plant maintenance following a landslide. Morowali Industrial Park in central Sulawesi was hit by a landslide after heavy rain on 22 March, resulting in three fatalities. QMB's high-pressure acid leaching plants are likely to be off line for a minimum of three weeks. The company was approached for comment. A large vessel line-up at Bahodopi has also curbed demand from one of Indonesia's largest acid importers. There are currently six vessels waiting to discharge at Bahodopi, carrying a combined 106,000t of acid. Some have been waiting since early March. It is unclear when the congestion will ease, given the QMB outage. Some traders are looking at diverting cargoes to destinations including India's east coast or Chile. QMB's Bahodopi sulphuric acid receipts were disrupted earlier this year after the company exhausted its import quota — this was only renewed in mid-February, for up to 600,000 t/yr. Indonesian sulphuric acid imports totalled 1.08mn t in 2024, slightly down from 2023's record 1.09mn t, with QMB receiving much of this. By Lili Minton and Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

25/04/01

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal

25/04/01

EU publishes CO2 car standard tweak proposal

Brussels, 1 April (Argus) — The European Commission has published the long-awaited proposal to give automobile manufacturers more flexibility in complying with the bloc's CO2 reduction targets for cars and passenger vehicles in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Those three years would be assessed jointly, rather than annually, averaging out fleet emission performance. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said the additional compliance flexibility shows that the commission has "listened" but the EU is still maintaining its zero-emission targets [for new vehicles from 2035]. "Predictability in the sector is crucial for long-term investments," said Hoekstra. The commission urged the European Parliament and EU member states to reach agreement on the targeted amendment "without delay". German centre-right member Jens Gieseke said there is a "broad majority" in parliament to fast-track approval for May. He noted that the car industry faces over €15bn ($16bn) in penalties for non-compliance with the CO2 standards. A member of parliament's largest EPP group, Gieseke also called for the commission to go further towards technological neutrality. "We need different kinds of fuels, e-fuels, biofuels, every fuel which could help to reduce CO2 should be recognized," he added. This second step, withdrawing the phase-out of internal combustion engines (ICE) from 2035 onwards, Gieseke noted, should come in the last quarter of 2025. German Green MEP Michael Bloss disputed the figure of €15bn in potential fines put forward by automotive industry association ACEA. "Even in the worst-case scenario, the total fines for all car manufacturers would not exceed €1bn," said Bloss. "Car manufacturers have had enough time to adjust their production planning. Many have done so," Bloss said, pointing to Automaker Volvo. Under the current 2019 regulation, fines should be imposed on manufacturers for each year in 2025–2029 when they do not reach their specific fleet-wide target CO2 reductions, compared to 2021 values. But manufacturers have the option to form compliance pools with other firms. "European car manufacturers are already talking to Tesla or Chinese manufacturers about so-called pooling, which must be stopped quickly," said EPP climate and environment spokesman Peter Liese. "We want to maintain climate targets, but not make Elon Musk richer through European legislation," said Liese. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India approves P and K subsidy for kharif 2025

25/03/28

India approves P and K subsidy for kharif 2025

London, 28 March (Argus) — The Indian government has approved the nutrient-based subsidy for phosphates and potash fertilizers for the kharif season, which runs from April until September. It has approved a total budget of 372.16bn rupees ($4.35bn) for the kharif season, which is 130bn rupees higher than the subsidy for rabi 2024-25 and around 128bn rupees higher than the allocation for kharif last year . The government said that the increased subsidy reflects the recent trends in international prices of fertilizers and inputs. The new rates are largely in line with the proposal made by the Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) in February, although the rate for DAP is slightly lower than the initial proposals as are the rates for the NPK grades, which moved according to the hike in the rate for P2O5. The subsidy for MOP will remain at Rs2.38/kg, unchanged on the level for the rabi season as proposed in September. This will give a per tonne subsidy rate for MOP of Rs1,428. The subsidy for phosphate will rise by 42pc from Rs30.80/kg for the rabi season to Rs43.60/kg. The subsidy for nitrogen will remain at Rs43.02/kg. This will give a per tonne subsidy rate for DAP of Rs27,799, a rise of Rs5,888/t from the base subsidy for rabi, slightly lower than the expected rise of around Rs6,000/t. The government will probably extend the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy for DAP into kharif, bringing the total subsidy for DAP up to Rs31,299/t. The maximum retail price for DAP will remain at Rs27,000/t. At current market prices, DAP importers' margins will remain negative. The government will probably continue to compensate importers for losses on DAP, but there is no indication that Indian DAP producers will also receive compensation for losses. The rates for NPK grades have moved up according to the hike in the rate for P2O5. The new subsidies are as follows for the following key import grades when compared with the rates for rabi: 10-26-26 - Rs16,257/t, up by 26pc 20-20-0+13 – Rs17,663/t, up by 18pc 12-32-16 – Rs19,495/t, up by 27pc 15-15-15+9S – Rs13,585/t, up by 19pc A total of 28 fertilizer grades are included in the scheme. By Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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