US coking coal exports decline in April
US coking coal exports in April totalled 4.22mn t, a drop of 21pc year on year, driven down by slower shipments to Europe and the absence of exports to China, data from the US Census Bureau shows.
Export volumes were also down by 15.2pc compared with March.
Exports to western Europe reached 855,761t in April, down by 41.1pc on the year, with no shipments being made to Germany and the UK in April and a decrease in volumes exported to France and Italy. But an increase in shipments to the Netherlands by 26.7pc on the year to 618,871t helped support overall volumes shipped to Europe.
Exports to Poland increased by 74.9pc on the year to reach 123,953t, as domestic production disruptions continue to support demand. But volumes have slowed compared with March, when the US shipped 202,685t of coking coal to Poland.
The US exported 82,500t to Turkey, down by 80.1pc, reflecting the increasingly challenging market conditions in the region. Cost pressures have also seen Turkish mills turn to cheaper alternative sources such as Russia and Columbia.
Exports to China had appeared to be recovering in the first quarter buoyed by supply problems in Australia, after exports slumped in the second half of 2018 when China imposed an additional 25pc tax on imports of US coal. But there were no coking coal shipments to China in April, compared with 311,700t in the same month last year. Ahead of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing in May, some US coking coal exporters had shipped more stocks to China. But the talks broke down later that month, forcing sellers to absorb China's 3pc import duty and 25pc import tariff in order to sell the cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Exports to Ukraine totalled 643,355t, up by 32.5pc on the year. This figure is set to rise in the coming months, with Ukrainian steelmakers showing increased interest in US material in light of Russia's tighter restrictions on exports of coking coal and metallurgical coke to Ukraine, after a permitting process came into effect on 1 June.
Shipments to Brazil remained largely steady in April, at 662,659t, compared with 680,299t in the same month last year. The most recent tender season for Brazilian mills has drawn to a close, with US producers overall seeing improved demand this year. Requirements emerging from Brazilian mills have increased this year, with shipping periods extending to six months or even a year from the month-to-month buying seen last year.
| US coking coal exports | t | ||
| Apr 19 | Apr 18 | Mar 19 | |
| Brazil | 662,659 | 680,299 | 524,915 |
| Ukraine | 643,355 | 500,053 | 288,426 |
| Netherlands | 618,871 | 488,296 | 322,571 |
| Japan | 461,442 | 374,466 | 699,721 |
| China | — | 311,700 | 175,000 |
| India | 260,663 | 579,740 | 641,777 |
| Turkey | 82,500 | 431,542 | 71,750 |
| Poland | 123,953 | 70,849 | 202,685 |
| Germany | — | 104,270 | 87,652 |
| Italy | 50,401 | 275,846 | 257,161 |
| France | 40,441 | 190,832 | 151,442 |
| UK | — | 76,646 | 121,641 |
| Others | 1,278,243 | 1,259,020 | 1,434,435 |
| Total | 4,222,528 | 5,343,559 | 4,979,176 |
| — US Census Bureau | |||
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EIA raises US coal power forecast for 2024-25
EIA raises US coal power forecast for 2024-25
Houston, 9 July (Argus) — Coal-fired generation in the US is expected to be higher this year and in 2025 compared with 2023 levels in response to elevated natural gas prices, government projections released today show. Coal power will increase by 2.7pc from a year earlier to 688.5bn kWh in 2024, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook today. Coal generation in 2025 will then slip to 674.5bn kWh, which would still be slightly higher than 2023's 670.7bn kWh. The coal generation outlooks for this year and next are both above what EIA projected in June. Today is also the first time this year that EIA said it expected 2024 coal power to top 2023 levels. "After reviewing the responsiveness of fossil fuel generation to natural gas prices, we now expect more power generation from coal and less from natural gas than we did in our previous forecast, especially during the winter," EIA said. The agency projected spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub to average $2.49/mmBtu this year, down from $2.54/mmBtu in 2023. But gas prices in the second half of 2024 will be higher than they were in both the first six months of this year and in the back half of 2023, and prices will continue to rise in 2025. The spot price at the Henry Hub will average $3.29/mmBtu in 2025, EIA projected. Natural gas-fired generation is expected to inch up by 1.4pc from a year earlier to 1,719.4bn kWh in 2024 but then slide below 2023 levels to 1,695.3bn next year, as the higher prices suppress demand for gas. EIA said overall US electricity generation was 5pc higher in the first half of 2024 than the same period last year as a result of higher-than-normal temperatures in June and rising demand from some businesses. The agency expects electric power dispatch in the second half of this year to be 2pc higher than in the same period of 2023, and for renewable power to have the greatest rate of growth during that time. Solar power is forecast to be 121.4bn kWh in the second half of this year, which would be 42pc higher than a year earlier. Wind generation is expected to rise by 12bn kWh, or 6pc, during this time to 208.7bn kWh. The greater solar and wind generation is at least partly because of more projects coming on line. EIA expects the US to have 127.3GW of solar generating capacity and 155.2GW of wind by the end of this year, compared with 90.2GW and 147.6GW, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2023. Coal generating capacity is expected to continue to slip, to 174.3GW in by the end of this year from 177.1GW in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to EIA. Coal's portion of the nation's generating capacity mix will then drop more sharply in 2025 to 162GW as coal-fired plant retirements start to accelerate. The higher outlook for coal generation this year led EIA to raise its expectations for electric power coal consumption by 3.8pc from the agency's June outlook, to 395.5mn short tons (358.8mn metric tonnes) in 2024. That also would be higher than the 387.2mn st consumed in 2023. But US coal production is still expected to fall by 12pc this year to 509.7mn st this year. US thermal coal exports are expected to rise to 53mn st this year and to 55mn st in 2025 from 48.5mn st in 2023. EIA forecast metallurgical coal exports will be about 49mn st in 2024 and 49.2mn st in 2025 compared with 51.3mn st last year. By Anna Harmon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Anglo declares FM after Grosvenor coking coal mine fire
Anglo declares FM after Grosvenor coking coal mine fire
Shanghai, 5 July (Argus) — UK-South African mining firm Anglo American has declared force majeure (FM) on Moranbah deliveries from the fourth quarter of 2024 after its Grosvenor coking coal mine closed on 29 June. Anglo American has suspended production at its Grosvenor mine in the Bowen basin region of Australia's Queensland because of an underground methane gas ignition. The company was instructed by independent regulator Resources Safety and Health Queensland on 29 June to suspend all operations and activities underground. "These events are beyond our reasonable control and will partly or wholly prevent, hinder, or delay our ability to meet our delivery obligations of the product under the contract from the fourth calendar quarter of 2024," the company said in a letter to customers seen by Argus . The closure is expected to last for several months, depending on ongoing evaluations, according to Anglo American. At least four consumers across Asia with term contracted volumes of Moranbah North in the fourth quarter said they have received the FM notice in the late evening of 4 July. Grosvenor was expected to produce 3.5mn t in 2024. Production guidance for Grosvenor was placed at 1.2mn t for the second half of 2024, a reflection of lower production because of a longwall move scheduled in the third quarter of 2024. Supply concerns for the immediate term were alleviated when Anglo American informed several steel mills and trading firms on 3 July that it expects to meet its contracted obligations for the third quarter. Before that, the mine closure incident appeared to have initiated a string of higher trades in the paper market and prompted the sale of a 40,000t Goonyella cargo with 1-10 August laycan to a trading firm at $260/t fob Australia on 2 July. "They were planning longwall moves at Moranbah and Grosevenor during this quarter so it does make sense that they would have planned reduced sales during the same, so meeting [third quarter] commitments and declaring FM on [fourth quarter] does check out," an Australian supplier said. Many expected the mining firm to issue an FM for the fourth quarter, with one source suggesting that "running down stockpiles can only continue for so long". Consumers that received the FM notice said they were assessing the ongoing impact to their operations. It remains unclear whether the impact would be a delay or a cancellation to shipments, one consumer said. Two others said their exposure to term contracted volumes of Moranbah North with the mining firm was limited and they may seek alternative coals from markets such as Australia, Canada or Mozambique if required. Market participants agreed that a reduction in supply would likely be reflected in market prices in the longer run. "This will take 3.5mn t/yr of premium mid-volatile coal out of the market, a meaningful volume that will structurally tighten the prime coal segment," an international supplier said. "The market feels like there's an overhang of prime coals especially from Canada recently, but we don't expect that to go on for too long. When that is used up, finding alternatives might be challenging," he added. Argus assessed the premium hard low-volatile coking coal price at $255/t fob Australia on 4 July, down from a year-to-date high of $336.25/t on 12 January. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Anglo assures customers of 3Q met coal shipments
Anglo assures customers of 3Q met coal shipments
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Asia-Pacific coking coal: Fob trades at $260/t
Asia-Pacific coking coal: Fob trades at $260/t
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