SK Innovation sees refining margins rebounding on IMO

: Oil products, Petrochemicals
19/07/29

South Korean refiner SK Innovation has raised its forecast for profit margins on distillates in this year's second half, as buyers begin to stock up on low-sulphur fuel and start testing ahead of International Maritime Organisation's cap on sulphur in marine fuels from 1 January 2020.

Margins also will get a boost from seasonal demand for gasoline, SK said. The outlook follows an April-June quarter in which the Asia-Pacific refining margin benchmark the Singapore GRM dropped to a decade-low of $1/bl from $2.70/bl a year earlier.

SK said gains in crude and fuel prices stalled late in the quarter as the US-China trade war deepened, raising uncertainty about the global economy. Margins rose in the third quarter, with the Singapore GRM averaging $6.90/bl through the first 25 days of July.

This outlook echoed that of rival South Korean refiner S-Oil.

SK said it sees petrochemical margins continuing to slump. Margins will remain weak amid China's slowing economic growth and additions of paraxylene (PX) capacity, the company said.

The average profit margin on polyethylene (PE) dropped to $479/t in the second quarter, down by 11pc from the previous three months, SK said. PE spreads slid by 28pc to $378/t, while PX margins fell to just $365/t, down by 35pc from the January-March average. But the average benzene margin rose by 21pc to $85/t amid firmer US demand.

SK's second-quarter operating profit fell by 42pc from year earlier to 497.5bn won ($419.8mn). Fellow South Korean refiner Hyundai Oilbank reported a 51pc fall in operating profit to W154.4bn.

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24/11/14

Brazil starts US, Canada PE-dumping probe

Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — Brazil's government has started an anti-dumping investigation into polyethylene (PE) produced in the US and Canada. The country's foreign trade committee Gecex launched the investigation on 13 November following allegations from the sole Brazilian PE producer, major petrochemical company Braskem, that these countries are exporting PE to Brazil at prices below what is considered fair market value. Overall imported PE prices into Brazil have been in a downward trend since July, pushing down Braskem prices in the domestic market. Gecex said it will analyze export prices and compare them with those in the domestic markets of both countries. If dumping is confirmed, corrective measures may be applied to protect the Brazilian industry. A preliminary analysis has identified significant evidence of dumping, justifying the continuation of the investigation, Gecex said. It added that there was a considerable increase in PE imports from these countries — especially from the US — during the period being investigated, which may have contributed to the decline in domestic prices and harmed the domestic producer. The preliminary analysis of dumping evidence covered 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024. The damage analysis period extended from 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2024. The anti-dumping investigation into PE imports from the US and Canada was preceded by an increase in import taxes on a number of polymers and chemicals to 20pc from 12.6pc, including PE, polypropylene (PP) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC), effective since 15 October. Repercussions An international trader specializing in polymer imports into Brazil told Argus that if anti-dumping duties are applied, his company's PE imports from the US to Brazil could drop by 20-30pc. "The decision has a 10-month deadline to be presented, but I believe it will be implemented and possibly announced earlier," he said, adding that this is another Braskem maneuver to regain its traditional 70pc market share in the Brazilian market. If confirmed, the measure is expected to have a significant impact on the Brazilian economy, especially on the plastic products manufacturing industry, as imports of finished plastic products could rise substantially, the trader said. One US-based trader selling US and Canada PE into Brazil sees the possible application of anti-dumping measures on the products as a structural development. "We will need to source PE in different production regions such as Asia and the Middle East, developing new ways of logistics, cash flows, ways of payment, to make it work flawlessly as it currently works with North American PE," the trader told Argus . "Prices should go up and we will increase our margins on PE sales." Brazil's January-September PE production increased by 1pc to 1.7mn t from the same period in 2023, while domestic sales fell bu 2pc to 1.24mn t. In contrast, PE imports jumped by 45pc to 1.54mn t, resulting in an apparent consumption of around 2.8mn t, up by 20pc higher year-on-year and a record high. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: German opposition pushes for Article 6

24/11/14

Cop: German opposition pushes for Article 6

Berlin, 14 November (Argus) — Germany's main opposition parties have welcomed the progress achieved on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. They have called on Germany and the EU to make better use of the instrument to allow for more cost-efficient climate action. Germany's dominant opposition party, the right-of-centre CDU/CSU, on 14 November commended the framework under Article 6 as an efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Article 6 of the Paris accord aims to help set rules on global carbon trade. The Article 6 mechanism allows for reductions to happen where they are quickest, cheapest and easiest to be carried out, the CDU head of the working group on climate action and energy, Andreas Jung, said in a debate in the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag. The deputy head of the FDP faction Lukas Koehler, also speaking in the Bundestag on 14 November, called on Germany and the EU to "finally" integrate the Article 6 in their climate action plans. Koehler argued that if for instance Germany's progress in emissions reduction should turn out to be too slow, the country could temporarily shift its efforts — and the associated finance — to where more rapid mitigation might be achieved, such as Brazil. The EU, of which Germany is a member state, will not make use of Article 6 credits, at least until 2030, to reach its so-called nationally determined contribution (NDC) – its climate action pledge — under the Paris climate accord. The EU has been seeing progress on ongoing Article 6 negotiations at Cop 29, the European Commission's principal advisor for international aspects of EU climate policy Jacob Werksman said today, "mostly because parties are now agreeing with the EU and others that were concerned about the transparency and accountability of the bilateral markets that operate under Article 6.2". Werksman believes there is enough momentum for negotiations to be concluded next week, noting that the atmosphere has "improved" compared with previous negotiations, which echoes the sentiment expressed by a number of negotiators earlier this week . Werksman pointed in particular to the US now agreeing with others and helping to broker compromises. Koehler also warned German government representatives in Baku to refrain from "expensive" pledges which may strain the country's budget. Developed countries agreed in 2009 to deliver $100bn/yr in climate finance to developing nations, and Cop 29 is focused on the next iteration of this — the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) . In a statement, Germany — represented by Scholz despite his absence at the Cop — and other G7 members like Canada, France, or the Netherlands agreed that "developed countries must continue to take the lead and live up to existing finance commitments". Germany faces early elections as the government lost its majority last week following the sacking, by chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrat SPD, of finance minister Christian Lindner of the pro-business FDP party and the FDP's subsequent withdrawal from the ruling coalition. Polls suggest that the CDU/CSU group will easily win the next federal elections which are scheduled to take place on 23 February. The FDP's persistent refusal to allow Germany to take on more debt to enable more public funding, including of clean technologies, was the main reason for Lindner's sacking. By Chloe Jardine and Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Advanced Fame ARA marine biodiesel blends hit 2024 lows

24/11/14

Advanced Fame ARA marine biodiesel blends hit 2024 lows

London, 14 November (Argus) — Marine biodiesel blends comprising Advanced Fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 hit their lowest prices so far this year on 13 November, according to Argus assessments. Calculated B30 Advanced Fame 0 dob ARA prices fell by $15.05/t to $654.79/t, the lowest since 14 December 2023. Calculated B100 Advanced Fame 0 dob ARA values tumbled by $70.60/t to $922.79/t, their lowest since 29 December 2023. The calculated dob ARA range prices incorporate a deduction for HBE-Gs. These are a class of Dutch renewable fuels units, or HBEs, used by companies that bring liquid or gaseous fossil fuels into general circulation and are obligated to pay excise duty/energy tax on fuels. The sharp drop in blend values came despite firming prices in Advanced Fame 0 fob ARA range values, which rose by $11.50/t to $1,481.25/t on 13 November — their highest since 8 July. Fossil markets also rebounded from recent drops that day, with front-month Ice Brent crude futures and gasoil futures contracts edging higher by 16:30 BST. Market participants had pointed to sluggish demand for European marine biodiesel blends in recent sessions, which may have added pressure on Advanced Fame 0 blend prices. HBE-G values have soared, weighing on the blend values for which it is accounted as a deduction. Prices for 2024 HBE-Gs had almost doubled on the month at €18.75-18.95/GJ by 13 November, up from €9.70-9.90/GJ four weeks prior. Market participants attributed the increase in 2024 prices to recent gains in European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) prices, tight supply because of a decline in tickets from biofuels used in shipping and less overall biofuel blending in the fourth quarter. HBE-Gs surpassed the like-for-like cost physical blending of HVO class IV by 13 November, albeit marginally, which could encourage physical blending. But high demand in a tightly supplied market in the Netherlands is continuing to drive HVO prices higher. The supply tightness is the result of a combination of fewer imports, with provisional anti-dumping duties in place on Chinese volumes, and some production problems. Italy's Eni confirmed on 7 November that it has halted output at its Gela HVO unit on Sicily, for planned maintenance. Finnish producer Neste said it stopped production at its plant in Rotterdam because of a fire on 8 November. France's TotalEnergies said that the shutdown of unspecified units at its La Mede plant would result in flaring on 8 November. By Hussein Al-Khalisy and Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

24/11/14

Guyana hires floating generators to avert outages

Kingston, 14 November (Argus) — Guyana is lifting its floating power capacity to 111MW with the rental of plants that the government says will prevent widespread power cuts over the next two years. The government has contracted a 75MW power barge from Turkish firm Karpowership that installed a 36MW barge in May, finance minister Ashni Singh said on Wednesday. The government has not released the terms of the contracts for the floating plants that are being fired by imported heavy fuel oil. Karpowership has been given a two-year contract that the government says will expire with the scheduled commissioning of a $2bn natural gas project that includes a 300MW power plant. The project will be fed by gas from a deepwater block being worked by US major ExxonMobil. The agreements with Karpowership "will take us just beyond the period when the new plant comes on stream," Guyana's vice president Bharrat Jagdeo said. The growing oil producer in northern South America faces a widening power deficit as state power utility GPL cannot meet demand created by a rapidly expanding oil-fired economy, the government said. Power demand in the country of 750,000 people has grown from 115MW in 2020 to 175MW currently and is projected to reach 205MW by year-end, the government said. GPL's fuel oil-fired output of 165MW "does not allow for a comfortable reserve so we need adequate redundant capacity," an official told Argus . Guyana's contract for power barges from Karpowership is the company's third in the region. Six of the company's floating plants are supporting Cuba's faltering power system, while another is stationed in the Dominican Republic. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

24/11/14

Cop: EU ETS volatility problem for corporate CCS case

Baku, 14 November (Argus) — Price fluctuations in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) make it difficult for carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects to attract finance, delegates at a UN Cop 29 climate conference side event in Baku, Azerbaijan, heard today. Fluctuations in the EU ETS price make it more difficult to model the support provided to CCS projects through avoided compliance costs, law firm Latham & Watkins partner Jean-Philippe Brisson said. These ups and downs are "very difficult for corporates", Japanese bank MUFG director Yukimi Shimura said. The benchmark front-year EU ETS contract has closed at an average of €66.20/t ($69.82/t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) so far this year in Argus assessments, compared with €85.30/t CO2e last year. While carbon pricing is an "absolute must" for CCS, if ETS cost avoidance is your only revenue stream it is very difficult to convince financials or board members to support projects, Swiss cement major Holcim vice president Pavan Chilukuri said, as the long-term viability of projects is not guaranteed. Additional funding is therefore needed to accelerate project implementation, Chilukuri said. This could be in the form of revenues from carbon dioxide removal credits — generated when plants run on biogenic energy and the carbon captured — or carbon contracts for difference. The CCS hub concept — where a number of sites capturing CO2 are located near each other to make use of the same transportation and storage infrastructure — can also help to limit costs, he said. But hubs come with their own cross-chain risks, Shimura said, including uncertainty surrounding liability for issues such as delays. The UK government — which is developing two CCS clusters — is doing an "excellent job" to minimise such risks, Shimura said. But more needs to be done in the US and Asia, with a role to be played by governments, she said. Most CCS activity remains concentrated in the US because incentives there are very strong and fixed for 12 years, Brisson said, referring to the $85/t tax credit for CCS offered under the country's Inflation Reduction Act. But even this is now "not good enough", Shimura said, as inflation has pushed costs up since the figure was set. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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