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Trump to raise tariffs on imports from China: Update

  • : Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
  • 19/08/23

Adds new Trump actions on tariffs.

US president Donald Trump ordered an increase in tariffs on imports from China after Beijing today struck back against his latest round of tariffs on imports from China by imposing a 5pc tariff on imports of US crude.

The existing 25pc tariff on $250bn/yr of imports from China will be raised to 30pc effective 1 October, Trump said via Twitter. An additional $300bn/yr in imports from China, which was set to be taxed at 10pc, will be subject to a 15pc tariff.

Earlier today, Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on a total of $75bn/yr in imports from the US. The countermeasures include a tax on US crude exports that was exempted in the previous rounds of retaliatory tariffs on a total of $75bn/yr in imports from the US.

The tariff on US crude will be effective on 1 September, the same day as the US plans to implement a 10pc tariff on an additional $133bn/yr in imports from China. A further $165bn/yr in imports from China will be subject to tariffs on 15 December, meaning the entirety of imports of goods from China will be affected. Beijing's response now will encompass nearly the entirety of the $130bn/yr of imports from the US.

Beijing equally staggered its response, holding back some of the planned tariffs, including a 25pc tax on car imports, until 15 December.

Beijing announced its countermeasures just a day before the G7 summit in France where Trump plans to tout the strength of the US economy. But the trade war is expected slow growth in the US and China, with peripheral effects on global growth. The tariffs in place even before the latest round of escalation already will shave 0.3 percentage points off US GDP growth in 2020, analysts with the Congressional Budget Office said yesterday.

Beijing says its latest tariffs are "a forced move to deal with US unilateralism and trade protectionism." It leaves room open for dialog, but there is no confirmation that trade talks tentatively scheduled between the US and China for early September will proceed.

With the entire bilateral volume of trade now subject to existing or planned tariffs, both countries are looking at possible countermeasures on other fronts.

The US is lending support to Vietnam's claim to explore for oil and gas in the South China sea. The State Department yesterday issued a protest against Beijing's "aggressive steps to interfere with ASEAN claimants' longstanding, well-established economic activities, in an attempt both to coerce them to reject partnerships with foreign oil and gas firms, and to work only with China's state-owned enterprises."

The State Department noted that "US companies are world leaders in the exploration and extraction of hydrocarbon resources, including offshore and in the South China Sea." But US companies are not involved in exploration in the disputed areas. "China has sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and its adjacent waters and has sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the relevant waters," Chinese foreign ministry said in response.

US energy and business groups, which have warned of potential consequences from ratcheting up the tariff pressure on China, urged the administration to find a negotiated solution to the trade war.

"This escalation of the US-China trade war is another step in the wrong direction, the consequences of which will be felt by American businesses and families," American Petroleum Industry vice-president Kyle Isakower said.

"Today's Chinese retaliation is unfortunate but not unexpected," the US Chamber of Commerce said.

China in May raised tariffs on US LNG imports to 25pc, closing off the market to US exporters. US crude exports trended lower even before the latest Chinese action. US crude shipments to China averaged 140,333 b/d in January-June, down by 37pc on the year, US government data show.


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25/05/14

Rio Tinto sells first PBF cargo with new specification

Rio Tinto sells first PBF cargo with new specification

Sydney, 14 May (Argus) — UK-Australian metal producer Rio Tinto on 13 May sold its first cargo of Pilbara Blend Fines (PBF) iron ore with a revised iron content specification of 60.8pc. Years of grade challenges have led to declining volumes of the blended product, which previously contained 61.6pc Fe. Rio Tinto continues to review product strategy, based on consumer needs and available ore grades, the company told Argus on 13 May. It has notified consumers of Pilbara Blend specification changes and is engaging with them, a spokesperson added. Over the past year, market participants have reported rising volumes of the company's SP10 blend — which has a lower iron ore content, but higher alumina and phosphorus levels, than PBF — being sold into China's portside market to maintain the grade of its PBF product. The reduction in grade in PBF is expected to result in greater volumes of its flagship product being available. Rio Tinto said the average realised fob price from its Australian assets was $97.40/dmt last year — slightly below Argus ' average 2024 iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback of $98.46/dmt. Rio Tinto's realised fob price includes fines and lump products from across Western Australia. These include lower-grade products and the more-valuable lump, which accounts for about 30pc of total sales over most quarters. Rio Tinto is not the only company facing grade challenges. Typical grades for Australia's BHP have also been steadily declining over recent years, and ores typically deliver below 62pc Fe. Mineral Resources' average ore grade at its 10mn t/yr Pilbara Hub complex was 57.3pc in July 2024-March 2025, down from 58.2pc a year earlier. Argus ' iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price was assessed at $102.40/dmt today, down from $98.95/dmt on 14 April. Rio Tinto's revised PBF product with July delivery traded at $96.41/dmt. Argus plans to launch an assessment for 61pc Fe iron ore fines next month to reflect the ongoing decline in average grades in Australia's Pilbara region. The new price will be calculated from the same underlying spot data as the existing ICX 62pc Fe benchmark. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mauritania weaves GTA project into industrial strategy


25/05/14
25/05/14

Mauritania weaves GTA project into industrial strategy

Paris, 14 May (Argus) — Offshore gas production could help to meet Mauritania's power demand by 2030 while also supporting mining activity, particularly of iron ore, energy minister Mohammed Ould Khaled told the Invest in African Energy forum today. BP last month loaded the first LNG shipment from its 2.7mn t/yr Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) joint venture in Mauritanian and Senegalese waters. GTA is export-oriented, but Mauritania could still tap the project for power, Khaled said, although he added that infrastructure would need to be built to facilitate this. A tender to build a power plant fired by GTA gas will be launched in the next couple of weeks, he said. Mauritania wants to become a regional power hub within 20 years, Khaled said, and hopes to see construction of a power link "to the north" — in the direction of Western Sahara/Morocco. The Mauritanian power grid is already connected to Senegal and Mali, he said. Future power generation projects will be funded by the private sector and incentivised through tax breaks, Khaled said, with 550MW set to become available to the domestic market through private-sector projects over the next couple of years. Mauritania is also looking for partners to develop the 50 trillion-60 trillion ft³ Bir Allah gas field for export and domestic markets. The area lies 50km north of GTA and exclusively in Mauritanian waters, according to Khaled, with two wells already having been sunk. Bir Allah is "three times bigger than GTA", he said. BP and Kosmos Energy signed an exploration and production-sharing agreement for the site in late 2022 , with BP saying gas from the field will be used to expand GTA to 10mn t/yr. It is unclear whether BP or Kosmos Energy are still partners in the Bir Allah development project. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts


25/05/14
25/05/14

Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts

London, 14 May (Argus) — Opec has downgraded its 2025 and 2026 non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts for a second month in a row, mainly driven by lower output expectations from the US. In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised down by 100,000 b/d its non-Opec supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 810,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d, respectively. This follows identical downgrades of 100,000 b/d for each year in Opec's previous report . While Opec did not give a reason for its supply revisions, the recent decline in oil prices is likely to have played a role. Production growth in the US, particularly in the shale patch, is highly sensitive to price movements, for example. US shale producer Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice earlier this month said US onshore crude production had likely peaked as drilling activity slowed in response to lower oil prices. Opec sees US supply growing by 330,000 b/d in 2025 and 280,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 450,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d in its March MOMR. Lower non-Opec+ supply expectations may have played a role in the decision by some Opec+ members to accelerate their planned supply increases for May and June. Opec kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next at 1.3mn b/d and 1.28mn b/d, respectively. These forecasts remain bullish compared to those of the IEA and US' EIA. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 106,000 b/d to 40.92mn b/d in April, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart


25/05/14
25/05/14

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

London, 14 May (Argus) — The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) under a quota system appears almost inevitable, market participants said ahead of the Cobalt Institute's annual conference in Singapore this week. With cobalt prices rising and stocks tightening globally, market participants increasingly expect that the DRC's blanket cobalt export ban — implemented in late February — will transition into a more sustainable quota system. The current freeze has pushed up global cobalt prices, but also blocked the flow of royalties to the Congolese treasury, creating what several traders described as a politically deliberate but ultimately transitional phase. "This is not [Congolese trading and mining firm] Gecamines — it's Kinshasa, it's the ministry of mines, and ultimately it's the presidency," one trader said, emphasising the centralised nature of the decision-making this time around. The government's key grievance is financial, multiple sources agreed. Cobalt royalty revenues have collapsed in recent years, according to several market participants. "They've lost billions," said one source with direct links to the ministry of mines. "This only makes sense if they replace the ban with something dynamic that keeps prices up and restarts the royalty flow." Prices up, revenues frozen Prices for cobalt hydroxide have nearly doubled since February, from $6/lb cif China to close to $12/lb — a sharper jump than during than any previous bans on DRC exports, including the ban on Chinese producer CMOC's Tenke Fungerume mine in 2022, now the largest cobalt mine in the world ( see graph ). But with exports halted, the Congolese government has reaped none of the upside. "They got the prices up, sure — but right now, there's nothing coming in. No exports mean no royalties," one trader noted, "A quota is the only real way forward." Market participants expect any such quota regime to be modelled loosely on Opec, with the DRC restricting supplies in a co-ordinated way to support pricing. "The officials running this are oil and gas guys," one source who has met with the DRC delegation said. "They want Opec on steroids. They've said that outright." Others draw comparisons with Indonesia, which already operates a quota system for its nickel ore mining permits and mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP), which contains cobalt. "Indonesian quotas are real, but they're built into nickel flows. It's not exactly apples to apples," a trader said. "So for Indonesia to reduce cobalt output, they'd have to reduce nickel output, which they don't want to do." Stockpiles thinning, squeeze ahead Record-high first-quarter cobalt hydroxide production by CMOC and global trafing and mining firm Glencore — at 30,000t and 9,500t, respectively — suggests a healthier supply picture than is really the case. "Production hasn't stopped, but that's the point — if exports don't resume, stocks will just build up inside the DRC or dry up abroad," a trader said. Some estimates place global cobalt hydroxide inventories at 50,000–70,000t, but availability depends heavily on who holds what. "20,000t with a larger producer is not the same as 20,000t with a small recycler," one trader said. "Some are more inclined to sit on it and wait for prices to jump." Multiple participants expect a squeeze to emerge in the international market by August, as final pre-ban shipments are consumed and no new material enters the pipeline. "One producer told people there'd be no more shipments after May/June," one source with direct knowledge of trading flows said. "That means by July, China is chewing through remaining stocks — and by August, you're in crunch territory." Some traders are already stockpiling, with exporters deliberately delaying cargoes to benefit from rising prices, market participants said. Strong enforcement The DRC's export restrictions are being heavily enforced. A customs brigade with military backing was deployed recently to Kasumbalesa on the DRC-Zambia border — the country's only significant cobalt export route — to prevent smuggling and enforce the ban. "People writing about illegal smuggling clearly haven't been to Katanga. There's one road. One crossing. It's tightly controlled," a trader told Argus . The new level of sophistication, some argue, is why a transition to quotas feels inevitable. "Extending the ban helps no one in the long term — not the DRC, not Chinese refiners, not the market," an industry consultant said. "A quota system is the only option that gives them both price and payment." Market sentiment remained mixed ahead of next week's conference, with cobalt spot trading thin, ranging from $15-16/lb in-warehouse Rotterdam for Chinese material, $17-18/lb for western standard grade and $19-20/lb for alloy grade. Whether the announcement comes in Singapore or in the weeks that follow, few now doubt the final outcome. "This [export ban] isn't a one-off," one participant said. "It's the start of a new model. The days of Congo flooding the market and watching others profit are over." By Chris Welch Cobalt prices post-DRC supply shocks pc Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027


25/05/14
25/05/14

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

Singapore, 14 May (Argus) — Indonesian cobalt production capacity from its high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations will more than double to 114,000t in 2027 from 55,000t in 2024, National Economic Council member and executive secretary Septian Hario Seto has said. But there will probably not be significant capacity expansion beyond 2027, Seto told the Cobalt Congress 2025 conference on 14 May in Singapore. Xu Aidong, cobalt branch chief expert and adviser at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, agreed that capacity will probably stick given slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth and rising costs for HPAL projects that include increasing sulphur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines. Seto expects cobalt prices to trend up further if the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban continues but warned that the measure could backfire as it could prompt technology adaptation to lower the cobalt content in batteries. "I think we [saw] in 2017 and 2018 [that the battery sector] responded with massive adoption of the [nickel-cobalt-manganese] NCM 811, so you are compromising long-term demand of cobalt with this one," Seto said. Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production in Indonesia is still able to generate 30-40pc profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000/t, Seto added, attributing that partly to the cobalt content. The country exported almost 1.56mn t of MHP last year, with cobalt exports up to around 44,350t. Indonesia previously separated the MHP before further processing into nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate. "But nowadays, we directly ship the MHP and there is one factory in Indonesia that can process further the MHP going into the precursor without doing the crystallisation of the nickel sulphate," Seto said. "As long as we are increasing the MHP production in Indonesia, it's not possible to [be asked] to control this cobalt," Seto said, adding that the country does not see cobalt as an "independent mineral" but one closely intertwined with nickel. Indonesia's position on nickel is very similar to the DRC's position on cobalt, said Seto, where the biggest producer has to be "careful" and "responsible" in ensuring sufficient supply in the market or risk being treated as "not reliable". A DRC decision on whether to extend the export ban or impose a strict limitation of exports "in part" has yet to be made . The country's mineral markets regulator Arecoms said during the conference that it will communicate its decision as planned at the end of the cobalt export suspension period, at odds with Chinese market participants' expectations for the conference. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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